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PoliGAF 2017 |OT2| Well, maybe McMaster isn't a traitor.

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pigeon

Banned
Are you guys weaving meta narrative poetry wish-casting again?

I actually figured that Flynn was testifying weeks ago, when it became clear that:

* He committed a clear felony by lying to the FBI
* The FBI said they won't press charges
* Despite that, he is still in DC and retained a lawyer

Math checks out. I actually thought I made a post about this in the last thread but I can't find it so can't prove I knew it all along :(
 
There are three basic variations. Reasonable Chatting Trump is pleasant but useless. Unscripted Trump is pretty close to nuts. And then there’s the Somewhat Normal Republican Trump, who we enjoy calling SNORT.
<3 Gail Collins
 
I actually figured that Flynn was testifying weeks ago, when it became clear that:

* He committed a clear felony by lying to the FBI
* The FBI said they won't press charges
* Despite that, he is still in DC and retained a lawyer

Math checks out. I actually thought I made a post about this in the last thread but I can't find it so can't prove I knew it all along :(
But I did.. :)
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
I actually figured that Flynn was testifying weeks ago, when it became clear that:

* He committed a clear felony by lying to the FBI
* The FBI said they won't press charges
* Despite that, he is still in DC and retained a lawyer

Math checks out. I actually thought I made a post about this in the last thread but I can't find it so can't prove I knew it all along :(
I believe you and I agree.

I just think it's funny how this thread vasilates between "never source twitter" to "OMG guise look what Twitter says"

I suppose it would be help if I kept track of who did which but I am lazy and would rather just ascribe both to everyone in general.
 

Sibylus

Banned
I believe you and I agree.

I just think it's funny how this thread vasilates between "never source twitter" to "OMG guise look what Twitter says"

I suppose it would be help if I kept track of who did which but I am lazy and would rather just ascribe both to everyone in general.

If the supreme court/courts can source twitter, why the hell not? Comes down to reputable sources, just like it always has.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I believe you and I agree.

I just think it's funny how this thread vasilates between "never source twitter" to "OMG guise look what Twitter says"

I suppose it would be help if I kept track of who did which but I am lazy and would rather just ascribe both to everyone in general.
I mean usually not same peopleeeeee
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
What's this April 15 deadline for reconciliation people in here keep speaking of? I've been looking for articles to no avail.
Isn't that the deadline for Congress to pass a budget resolution? And then two months are allotted for reconciliation.

I'd be lying if I claimed to fully understand.
 

kirblar

Member
I believe you and I agree.

I just think it's funny how this thread vasilates between "never source twitter" to "OMG guise look what Twitter says"

I suppose it would be help if I kept track of who did which but I am lazy and would rather just ascribe both to everyone in general.
You never source "Twitter."

You can, however, source credible people who use Twitter.

There's a difference.
 
The Increasing Significance of the Decline of Men

Catching up on reading, so this is kind of old and may have been posted.
(Edsall's columns are more just study aggregator pieces, but they're interesting nonetheless)
A study by the Dallas Federal Reserve published in 2014, “Middle-Skill Jobs Lost in U.S. Labor Market Polarization,” found that:

While women were hit much harder than men by the disappearance of middle-skill jobs, the majority of women managed to upgrade their skills and find better-paying jobs. By comparison, more than half of men who lost middle-skill jobs had to settle for lower-paying occupations.

From 1979 to 2007, seven percent of men and 16 percent of women with middle-skill jobs lost their positions, according to the Dallas Fed study. Four percent of these men moved to low-skill work, and 3 percent moved to high-skill jobs. Almost all the women, 15 percent, moved into high-skill jobs, with only 1 percent moving to low-skill work.
Employment rates of young women are nearly invariant to family marital status, while the employment rates of young adult men from non-married families are eight to ten percentage points below those from married families at all income levels.
In a 2015 paper, “The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market,” Deming writes:

High-paying, difficult-to-automate jobs increasingly require social skills. Nearly all job growth since 1980 has been in occupations that are relatively social skill-intensive. Jobs that require high levels of analytical and mathematical reasoning but low levels of social interaction have fared especially poorly.

What this means, according to Deming, is that

the economy-wide shift toward social skill-intensive occupations has occurred disproportionately among women rather than men. This is consistent with a large literature showing sex differences in social perceptiveness and the ability to work with others.
What does all this suggest?

First, there are irreversible changes in the workplace, particularly the rise of jobs requiring social skills (even STEM jobs) that will continue to make it hard for men who lack those skills.

Second, male children suffer more from restricted or nonexistent parental leave policies and contemporary child care arrangements, as well as from growing up in single-parent households.
 
When we get Flynn testifying is when the Ship is going down.

You never source "Twitter."

You can, however, source credible people who use Twitter.

There's a difference.
It's basically like Wikipedia in academic citation: you never cite Wikipedia, but you can (and will) use people who's texts appear on Wikipedia as a source.

IE Yeah, I shouldn't use Wikipedia to talk about Trump's beliefs, but Art of the Deal(which is cited on Trump's wiki page) i can use.
 
The Increasing Significance of the Decline of Men

Catching up on reading, so this is kind of old and may have been posted.
(Edsall's columns are more just study aggregator pieces, but they're interesting nonetheless)
Eru makes Eldar
Eldar Leave Valinor
Eru makes Man
Eldar return to Valinor
Age of Men
Men fall to the twisted wills of Fanta Sauron
Women inherit the earth

All according to keikieu.

Seriously though, it's interesting to see the ramifications of this play out. University is now predominantly female nowdays.

Edit: Forgot to edit this into my other post.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Been gone all day and just got back--so Flynn looks like he might be talking to FBI, and Nunes was confirmed at that meeting with him and the Turkish group?

Amazing how this board instantly called that the moment he freaked out on TV. Would make perfect sense why he ran straight to the president.
 
I actually figured that Flynn was testifying weeks ago, when it became clear that:

* He committed a clear felony by lying to the FBI
* The FBI said they won't press charges
* Despite that, he is still in DC and retained a lawyer

Math checks out. I actually thought I made a post about this in the last thread but I can't find it so can't prove I knew it all along :(
Manafort is more fucked than flynn. He's hired a crisis management firm to speak for him. I'm sure his public testification call was their attorneys' idea.
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Been gone all day and just got back--so Flynn looks like he might be talking to FBI, and Nunes was confirmed at that meeting with him and the Turkish group?

Amazing how this board instantly called that the moment he freaked out on TV. Would make perfect sense why he ran straight to the president.
Nunes was at the January 18th, 2017 meeting with Flynn and Turkish officials. The September 19th, 2016 one is the one that Woolsey walked into and says they were talking about shady ways of delivering Gulen to Turkey.
 

Watch Da Birdie

I buy cakes for myself on my birthday it's not weird lots of people do it I bet
Protesters in Philly today shut down a Trump rally that included Neo-Nazis

I wonder if this is why Trump tweeted earlier thanking people for rallying for him...

There's apparently *some reason* he wants people to watch Judge Jeannie tonight at 9 on Fox. That's...that's not right for a President to be directly advertising a show like that, right? I mean if he was going to be a guest or something I could understand like "I'll be on so-and-so tonight", but just telling folks to watch a certain political show for no listed reason? Bizarre.
 
Nunes was at the January 18th, 2017 meeting with Flynn and Turkish officials. The September 19th, 2016 one is the one that Woolsey walked into and says they were talking about shady ways of delivering Gulen to Turkey.
Yeah but it's pretty good chance that Gulen's "extradition" is what made them chummy. The turkish government was singing praises of Trump administration after that.
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Yeah but it's pretty good chance that Gulen's "extradition" is what made them chummy. The turkish government was singing praises of Trump administration after that.
Certainly. Just trying to promote caution rather than some of the rampant conclusions people have been jumping to this week. There are plenty of good questions getting raised as the picture gets filled in more and more on how all of these players were involved in various parts of the campaign and now the investigations.
 
Cross posting this from the Healthcare Thread, but earlier today Trump told people to watch Judge Jeanine's show on Fox tonight and it looks like there was a reason for that. On her show tonight she called out Paul Ryan and said he needs to resign as Speaker of the House.
https://twitter.com/JudgeJeanine/status/845807926413443072

It's amazing watching her completely blame Paul Ryan for the bill failing and making it sound as if Trump is the poor innocent guy who got screwed because the bill he personally championed wasn't actually his bill it was Paul Ryan's and Ryan sucks and something something something.
 
Cross posting this from the Healthcare Thread, but earlier today Trump told people to watch Judge Jeanine's show on Fox tonight and it looks like there was a reason for that. On her show tonight she called out Paul Ryan and said he needs to resign as Speaker of the House.
https://twitter.com/JudgeJeanine/status/845807926413443072

It's amazing watching her completely blame Paul Ryan for the bill failing and making it sound as if Trump is the poor innocent guy who got screwed because the bill he personally championed wasn't actually his bill it was Paul Ryan's and Ryan sucks and something something something.

Yeah, it requires a great deal of mental gymnastics to blame all this on Ryan when Trump was telling everyone how great it is and how Spicer was out there friday saying trump spent "every waking minute" trying to get it passed using his negotiating super powers.
 
Cross posting this from the Healthcare Thread, but earlier today Trump told people to watch Judge Jeanine's show on Fox tonight and it looks like there was a reason for that. On her show tonight she called out Paul Ryan and said he needs to resign as Speaker of the House.
https://twitter.com/JudgeJeanine/status/845807926413443072

It's amazing watching her completely blame Paul Ryan for the bill failing and making it sound as if Trump is the poor innocent guy who got screwed because the bill he personally championed wasn't actually his bill it was Paul Ryan's and Ryan sucks and something something something.

How is it legal for a President to endorse products/shows using his position? Is that not a violation of almost every ethics law?
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Oh wonderful. Let me guess, "When the President does it it's not illegal"?

He breaks far more important ethics rules every time he goes down to Mar-a-lago and rubs shoulders with members who pay $200,000 for entry. Normally that'd be more than enough to impeach, but the GOP will never move on it.

I am pretty sure those ethics rules don't apply to the President, just the rest of the White House.

No, ethics rules apply to the president. The issue is Congress is the only entity capable of doing anything to enforce them.
 
I am pretty sure those ethics rules don't apply to the President, just the rest of the White House.

Yea like that time Kellyanne Conway promoted Ivanka Trump's products on Fox News. Good to see Republicans care about said Ethics Laws. Crooked Hillary is second only to the entire Republican Party.

He breaks far more important ethics rules every time he goes down to Mar-a-lago and rubs shoulders with members who pay $200,000 for entry. Normally that'd be more than enough to impeach, but the GOP will never move on it.

Can you imagine the outrage they would display if Obama had done even one of the dozen things Trump does on a daily basis? They went nuts because Michelle tried to get people to eat healthier and Obama wore a fucking Tan Suit. Trump is literally doing Pay to Play with Mar-a-Lago and has his daughter working in the West Wing sitting in on intel briefings while running a private company.
 
Hmm.. Acosta has him leaving the WH altogether

@Acosta
Boris Epshteyn, a special assistant to president leading White House surrogate operations, is expected to leave WH, I'm told.

Good, the line of assholes on TV who react to the fact that Trump is a liar by shaking their heads from side to side while holding a shitty smile, as if to say, "how dare you, we would never lie" continues to dwindle.

Also what the fuck is up with the way that Judge Jeanine lady talks? It's like she saw Jeff Gerstmann doing his "awful radio station dj" imitation and decided to take it up a couple dozen notches.
 

pigeon

Banned
Worth considering what the AHCA debacle says about McConnell and the filibuster.

One of the bigger problems for the AHCA was that it was severely limited by the need to abide by the Byrd Rule so that it could pass the Senate with a simple majority. In fact, the entire legislative calendar was designed around abusing reconciliation -- that's why there are two reconciliation windows planned this year.

But, of course, if McConnell was willing to nuke the filibuster, he could pass anything through the Senate with a simple majority. The budget window would be irrelevant!

The fact that the AHCA was allowed to completely meltdown and the the House declared they were done dealing with Obamacare strongly suggests that McConnell isn't actually willing to nuke the filibuster in order to deal with it, and the existence of the second budget window suggests that he has little interest in nuking the filibuster for tax reform, either. Despite my previous perception, it seems quite likely that the filibuster -- at least for legislation -- will survive for a while.

Notably, this suggests McConnell is not all that interested in the go-for-broke strategy that Ryan and Trump seem to have embraced. The reason you keep the filibuster in the Senate, besides comity, is that you anticipate yourself losing the majority sometime soon and want to maintain some norms.

(One can also observe that several sources suggest McConnell was involved in the strategic maneuvering around the AHCA -- and yet, somehow, the bill managed to blow up in the House, all over Trump and Ryan, with McConnell totally unmentioned. A suspicious mind might think that the bill's failure to reach the Senate suggests McConnell never intended to repeal the ACA at all.)
 

Zeke

Member
Why you guys gotta shit on political science and make me even more apprehensive about grad school :(
I'm doing it anyway
 

Armaros

Member
I actually figured that Flynn was testifying weeks ago, when it became clear that:

* He committed a clear felony by lying to the FBI
* The FBI said they won't press charges
* Despite that, he is still in DC and retained a lawyer

Math checks out. I actually thought I made a post about this in the last thread but I can't find it so can't prove I knew it all along :(

Also him all of a sudden declaring paperwork He knew he had to do but didnt becauze he had Trump shielding him.
 
I'm happy about the dysfunction because it puts the entire republican agenda at risk but the debt ceiling fight is going to be a disaster. Democrats will likely have to bail the country out
 

sazzy

Member
You sold yourself as the businessman who could shake things up and make Washington work again. Instead, you got worked over by the Republican leadership and the business community, who set you up to do their bidding.

That’s why they’re putting up with all your craziness about Russia and wiretapping and unending lies and rattling our allies.

They’re counting on you being a delusional dupe who didn’t even know what was in the bill because you’re sitting around in a bathrobe getting your information from wackadoodles on Fox News and then, as The Post reported, peppering aides with the query, “Is this really a good bill?”

You got played.

It took W. years to smash everything. You’re way ahead of schedule.

And I can say you’re doing badly, because I’m a columnist, and you’re not. Say hello to everybody, O.K.?

Sincerely, Maureen

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/03/25/opinion/sunday/donald-this-i-will-tell-you.html
 

giphy.gif


Straight fire.
 
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