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PoliGAF 2017 |OT2| Well, maybe McMaster isn't a traitor.
- Thread starter ItWasMeantToBe19
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A Serious Man
Member
That was rumored. It doesn't mean he knows anything, that's just how he's reading the tea leaves.
Aaron Strife
Banned
If push comes to shove I think he'd much rather resign than be impeached and convicted.
House GOP would never impeach him anyway...
Aaron Strife
Banned
2018
benjipwns
Banned
I don't think a GOP Supermajority House and Senate would do it either.
benjipwns
Banned
A Serious Man
Member
Merkley gets it, thank god.
Word. I can't see how Dems win back anything in 18. Senate map is legit murder.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
Benji, with what you know about U.S. History you know this won't happen
You're trolling. Disappointed
benjipwns
Banned
The American people will not stand for a Congress that undermines the President.
Aaron Strife
Banned
President Scalise, baby.
neurosisxeno
Member
You're underestimating how badly Republicans can fuck shit up. Every Democrat in 2010/12/14 was bashed over the head with Obama, and he was still fairly popular. Trump cannot say the same. On top of that they have continually sparked outrage between their garbage Healthcare bill and the Internet Privacy thing which is pissing people off. Combine that with 2 straight years of Russia-Trump investigations and--dare I dream--a President of their party stepping down. I'd be amazed if Democrats don't take back at least the House.
Aaron Strife
Banned
If Trump is still sitting at like 35% approval in 2018 then I'd say the House is at least a toss-up. Hell I won't say the House is anything more than a toss-up for fear of getting ahead of myself (as I am want to do around here).
Problem with the Senate map is we have little room to grow, Nevada is the only state that would be competitive in a normal year. The hope is that Trump is so unpopular we can pick up Arizona and Texas as well, states that are moving left but would need a big push for us to actually win.
I'm actually less concerned about the Romney five than I have been in a while - they all won while facing presidential headwinds in 2012, and now they can make the case for themselves to fight against Trump, who no one seems to particularly care for.
Holding all our seats and swinging NV/AZ/TX would produce a 51-seat majority, at which point we're probably picking up like 50 seats in the House too.
neurosisxeno
Member
I think the Senate is going to be harder than the House for sure, but I would not be surprised if--should he still be President--Trump's approval was 30% or even less at the rate he's going. That's a good way to depress your base and galvanize the opposition. If the Republicans have failed to pass any meaningful legislation by Nov 2018, I have a hard time seeing them not losing the House as people realize the Republicans are the problem, not Congress itself.
Also, I can't stop thinking about how weird Mike Pence is. That whole thing about him refusing to be alone with women and never drinking unless his wife is around is so strange to me...
Aaron Strife
Banned
neurosisxeno
Member
He claims it's "out of respect" for his wife. That almost sounds like he may have cheated in the past...
It's a good thing the Senate isn't the only elected office in the land, then.
You're on a roll the last couple of days.
Aaron Strife
Banned
A lot of democrats seem to have convinced themselves the presidency and Senate are the only winnable offices/chambers.
benjipwns
Banned
State legislatures, especially in states where they still draw the maps.
Sessions was going to be appointed regardless of whether dems voted for him or not. If the west Virginia seat is what we need to keep republicans from controlling the senate we need to keep it. I mean if dems controlled the senate we would not have to reached the point of voting to confirm him in the first place because dems would control the committees and manchin would never be forced to vote for his racist constituency. This is why you want to be the party in power, you can keep members from having to vote for bad stuff so it won't appear in attack ads. Same reason we will let some dems vote for judge but keep it below 60. Its called minimizing the stuff certain members can be attacked for in flip states while still accomplishing your goal.
Aaron Strife
Banned
In most states the governor can veto maps though, so winning the gubernatorial races is half the equation.
benjipwns
Banned
pass a law outlawing the governor
Aaron Strife
Banned
Wouldn't put it past most states to do just that in their lame duck sessions should Dems have a good 2018
Doc Holliday
SPOILER: Columbus finds America
Indeed, I was yelling at the TV during that interview. Joe wants Gorsuch badly! Dems have nothing to lose by opposing Gorsuch nomination.
So re: the Flynn news
Is it safe to assume, if he's seeking immunity, that he believes he knows something that: a) will be found out, b) implicate him, and c) land him in prison? Why else would someone seek immunity if the alternative isn't going to jail?
Governorships + state legislatures
There are 38 governors races in 2018. Winning as many of those as possible is going to go a long way in drawing fairer district maps in 2021. That's a whole decade of better / less obviously Republican-friendly districts for the GOP to fall back on.
Flipping the Senate can wait a couple years. The governors' races are a once-in-a-decade opportunity.
Is it safe to assume, if he's seeking immunity, that he believes he knows something that: a) will be found out, b) implicate him, and c) land him in prison? Why else would someone seek immunity if the alternative isn't going to jail?
Governorships + state legislatures
There are 38 governors races in 2018. Winning as many of those as possible is going to go a long way in drawing fairer district maps in 2021. That's a whole decade of better / less obviously Republican-friendly districts for the GOP to fall back on.
Flipping the Senate can wait a couple years. The governors' races are a once-in-a-decade opportunity.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Publicity stunt?
Why would he make it public he wants immunity. That's not something you generally advertise.
nature boy
Member
OH SHIT
what states are good legislature targets at this point that are not gerrymandered to abyss?
benjipwns
Banned
He's trying to pull an Ollie North just incase the FBI comes back to get him on stuff he did completely unrelated to Trump or anything when their investigation falls flat.
The FBI would have locked him down privately if they needed him.
Remember, the Trump people didn't think he could pass the Senate, that's why he was being appointed NSA.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I was starting to have some doubts about Flynn's request for immunity until I saw Schiff's tweet.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Arizona Senate (+2/+3)
Colorado Senate (+1)
Iowa House and Senate (+9/10 in the House, +5/6 in the Senate) - state moved hard towards Trump but it isn't gerrymandered (we held the State Senate right before 2016) so it depends on how much they hate Trump I guess
Maine Senate (+1)
Minnesota House (+10/+11)
New Hampshire House and Senate (+28 in House, +2/+3) - don't let the House number scare you, they have 400 tiny ass districts so big swings are frequent
New York Senate (who fucking knows, given the IDC)
Virginia Senate (+1/+2) - this isn't until 2019 though
Washington Senate (+1) - there's an upcoming special election so we could flip this before 2018
The big prizes (NC, FL, OH, PA etc) are probably too gerrymandered like you said.
If we flipped Washington Senate and NJ Governor this year, won Colorado Senate, Maine Senate and gubernatorial races in Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Mexico, Vermont and all else held steady we'd go from having a Dem trifecta in 6 states to 16.
I'm thinking you should prepare to be amazed then.
Trump sure as shit is not going to step down, and he's not getting impeached. As long as he keeps pissing off liberals his base will still love him. That's the whole reason they vote for anything. Even if he's in the 30s on approval he'll still have 80+% approval with republicans. The Senate is a lost cause, the House is unlikely to flip, 50/50 at best. I'm hoping we can at least make some decent gains at the state level.
I think the realistic goal for 2018 is to defend as much as possible in the Senate, significantly reduce the House R majority (giving them even less room to deal with intra-party fighting), make gains in state legislatures and win a few big gubernatorial races. Then obstruct their shit, let them fight amongst themselves, and hammer them on Russia, healthcare, and everything else for the next two years. At the same time, start working on some policy, maybe have a few bills out there, in prep for 2020. Give people something to vote for, not just against, and start building a party consensus ahead of time so that if we win everything in 2020, they can hit the ground running.
Basically try to set the stage for a massive victory in 2020 on all levels, just in time for the census and Dem control of House, Senate, and presidency.
Ohio should be a lot better soon, there was a anti gerrymandering referendum the public passed last year. It was for state legislature.
I know the House Intelligence Committee investigation is basically tanked and we have to rely on Warner-Burr bromance Senate investigation (minus scared of 7 year old boy Cotton) to get to the bottom of this but man... Adam Schiff is the real hero man right? Nice future ahead of him.
Aaron Strife
Banned
It won't be in place in time for the 2018 elections though, it takes effect after the 2020 census.
Also Ohio's scheme is a bit toothless. The governor, lt. governor and attorney general have a seat at the table with leaders from both parties' House and Senate caucuses. So you could have a 5-2 majority pass gerrymanders anyway. The only incentive not to do this would be that maps passed by less than a 7-0 consensus are subject to revision every four years, but that just means the party could come back in four years and do it again.
But publicity stunt for who? It doesn't make Flynn or the administration look good if he's looking to cut a deal.
Wish I lived in his district so I could vote for him.
A Serious Man
Member
Your timeline is out of whack.
Late January: Yates warns WH about Flynn.
January 31st: Yates fired.
February 13th: Flynn resigns after the Post reveals he lied.
Why the WH kept Flynn on after being warned was one of the big questions at the time and still hasn't really been explained.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Idunno
Just kind of weird. Wanting immunity makes him look guilty, but he's perfectly willing to talk about it and make no attempt at all to keep it secret.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
You're comparing Steve King to Joe Manchin. Either you aren't being honest or that's an awful comparison! Maybe get out and meet some people like Steve King; they protest around here with guns and banners that talk about racial holy wars, which according to you, is a Manchin pastime.
And Hillary campaigned on repealing TPP, and Trump campaigned on universal health care, and so on and so on. I firmly believe Manchin (who as noted above has a recent vote in favor of PP) knows how to pander.
I repeat that Manchin is our Susan Collins; his vote will be there when it counts, and in exchange we can give him cover to cast meaningless votes that were already going to pass anyway.
Also, I'm assuming that if Manchin were to get primaried and we lose his seat, you'll never bitch if we try to pass legislation and fail by one vote? Because that would be the height of hypocrisy.
*50 seat tie, remember we're getting rid of Manchin.
Ah, the North Carolina method, pretty popular these days.
This is chronologically backwards. Yates was out before Flynn.
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