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[Bonen no Max'd]

Somehow, magically, people in urban/suburban areas have managed to avoid voting for white supremacists even though unions have gone downhill.

If you don't understand how intrinsically interlinked these two things are, you are going to keep missing the point.


Here's white population density by county:

Here's an animated map looking only at counties that are 90/92/94/96/98% white:

And here again is that Obama/Romney->Clinton/Trump change map:


And to quote @jbouie-

a) lol suburbs still voted for Trump, just by smaller margins than they did Romney. Trump doesn't win Wisconsin if you cut out the suburbs.

b) I'm not sure white people in cities are so much more woke in greater numbers than those outside of cities. Cook County went 74-28 for Hillary and is about 55% white. If we assume that most of the nonwhite people in Cook County went for Hillary (let's say 80%), that means about 36% of white people there went for Hillary. Nearby Kenosha went 47.2-46.9 Trump/Hillary. Kenosha County is 88% white, so if we make the same assumption about nonwhite voters breaking about 80-20 for Hillary, that means about 37% of white voters broke for Hillary there. Are white people in Chicago just less woke than they are in other cities?

Oh you communists want to break up everything now, not just banks.

For the record this was my position before.

 

[smokeandmirrors]

Not exactly hopium but this just happened.

@OliverCooper
Congratulations to Guillermo Lasso on his election as President of Ecuador: ending ten years of socialist, Chavista rule.

Lasso has said that he wouldn't allow Assange to keep freeloading in his embassy.

So hey Julian, you don't have to go home, but you can't stay here.

good maybe the rapist will be held accountable now.

 

[kirblar]

Smaller margins matter.

And breaking things up is the opposite of what you want to do- the Canadian system is better than the US's and it has only a handful of national banks dominating everything. (With many smaller credit unions, of course.)

 

[pigeon]

Man I'm so glad we're back to a class-based narrative about this election that elides any discussion of white supremacy

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Man I'm so glad we're back to a class-based narrative about this election that elides any discussion of white supremacy

people's quality of life goes down -> people want explanation -> only person giving an explanation is giving a white supremacist explanation -> people become white supremacist -> people vote for Trump

ohmygosh, it's the same narrative! but I thought you couldnt possibly talk about class and race?!?!?!

This is your brain: O

This is your brain on false dichotomies: º

Don't do false dichotomies, kids.

 

[Suikoguy]

Man I'm so glad we're back to a class-based narrative about this election that elides any discussion of white supremacy

People don't want to face a situation that seems impossible to solve.

 

[kirblar]

people's quality of life goes down -> people want explanation -> only person giving an explanation is giving a white supremacist explanation -> people become white supremacist -> people vote for Trump

ohmygosh, it's the same narrative! but I thought you couldnt possibly talk about class and race?!?!?!

This is your brain: O

This is your brain on false dichotomies: º

Don't do false dichotomies, kids.

Only one of those things is actually predicting election results.

When your district has a median income of 70K and is still overwhelmingly voting for Trump, class ain't the common denominator.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Only one of those things is actually predicting election results.

When your district has a median income of 70K and is still overwhelmingly voting for Trump, class ain't the common denominator.

Class and income are not synonymous.

 

[Plinko]

Man I'm so glad we're back to a class-based narrative about this election that elides any discussion of white supremacy

Don't forget sexism, which was a huge part of it, too.

 

[pigeon]

people's quality of life goes down -> people want explanation -> only person giving an explanation is giving a white supremacist explanation -> people become white supremacist -> people vote for Trump

I understand that the American Revolution is still a painful subject for you, but as I've already reminded you maybe five hundred times, racism was not invented in the 1980s

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Smaller margins matter.

And breaking things up is the opposite of what you want to do- the Canadian system is better than the US's and it has only a handful of national banks dominating everything. (With many smaller credit unions, of course.)

Okay let's do this, Waukesha County, Wisconsin is one of the suburban counties that made a marginal shift towards Clinton from Obama and went 60-33 for Trump. It is 95% white, so using the previous 80-20 split for nonwhite voters, meaning Hillary got about 27% of the white vote. That's 10% less than she got from a postindustrial town like Kenosha after its swing even though Kenosha should be your logic be substantially more racist due to its smaller population. Really, it looks like the solution to our electoral woes would be to destroy the suburbs since the white people in them are much more racist than those in big cities or small postindustrial towns. After all, if Waukesha County didn't exist Hillary would've won the state.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I understand that the American Revolution is still a painful subject for you, but as I've already reminded you maybe five hundred times, racism was not invented in the 1980s

This is just lazy.

 

[smokeandmirrors]

Okay let's do this, Waukesha County, Wisconsin is one of the suburban counties that made a marginal shift towards Clinton from Obama and went 60-33 for Trump. It is 95% white, so using the previous 80-20 split for nonwhite voters, meaning Hillary got about 27% of the white vote. That's 10% less than she got from a postindustrial town like Kenosha after its swing even though Kenosha should be your logic be substantially more racist due to its smaller population. Really, it looks like the solution to our electoral woes would be to destroy the suburbs since the white people in them are much more racist than those in big cities or small postindustrial towns. After all, if Waukesha County didn't exist Hillary would've won the state.

im down. suburbs were a mistake.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I mean the whole "dignity" thing, let's face it is a white person thing. And if we're drilling down a man thing. It's a relative thing. It's a I used to be able to earn lots just by virtue of being a white man. And now I can't and I might have to be in a service job. And I might need to serve people younger than me, or heavens to Betsy blacker than me. Or worse a woman.

Let's not pretend that people of colour who are pretty darn used to getting knocked down have this false sense of being owed more "dignity" than everyone else.

If we're oh my goshing we may as well be blunt about it. And recognize it's not just dignity, it's also privilege.

 

[kirblar]

Okay let's do this, Waukesha County, Wisconsin is one of the suburban counties that made a marginal shift towards Clinton from Obama and went 60-33 for Trump. It is 95% white, so using the previous 80-20 split for nonwhite voters, meaning Hillary got about 27% of the white vote. That's 10% less than she got from a postindustrial town like Kenosha after its swing even though Kenosha should be your logic be substantially more racist due to its smaller population. Really, it looks like the solution to our electoral woes would be to destroy the suburbs since the white people in them are much more racist than those in big cities or small postindustrial towns. After all, if Waukesha County didn't exist Hillary would've won the state.

You're comparing a county to a town. Of course the county margin is worse.

If you're comparing County to County-

70K in the City in W, total county pop 389K
100K in the City in K, total county pop 166K

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

You're comparing a county to a town. Of course the county margin is worse.

I was using Kenosha County data because I don't have specific numbers from the town itself, but this small postindustrial area was both much more pro-Hillary than the Milwaukee suburbs she targeted and had more support from white people.

Again Kenosha County matched nearby Cook County in terms of white Hillary voters even though one is much more diverse than the other, why are Milwaukee suburbs more racist than small postindustrial towns.

 

[pigeon]

This is just lazy.

I mean, I think what's lazy is clinging relentlessly to a toy model of racism where people are only racist because of their economic circumstances, a theory which defies basically all recorded history and evidence and exists only to allow people who want to focus on class issues and avoid discussing race to self-interestedly suggest that their class-focused solution will also magically solve racism.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

I mean, I think what's lazy is clinging relentlessly to a toy model of racism where people are only racist because of their economic circumstances, a theory which defies basically all recorded history and evidence and exists only to allow people who want to focus on class issues and avoid discussing race to self-interestedly suggest that their class-focused solution will also magically solve racism.

I don't think "fixing" economic circumstances will just magically end racism but I do think that removing the political power of organizations that benefit and support white supremacy (like large moneyed interests) and rebuilding organizations that have historically fought racism (like unions and small minority-owned business) are effective tools in trying to topple racism.

 

[kirblar]

I don't think "fixing" economic circumstances will just magically end racism but I do think that removing the political power of organizations that benefit and support white supremacy (like large moneyed interests) and rebuilding organizations that have historically fought racism (like unions and small minority-owned business) are effective tools in trying to topple racism.

If you want to reduce the political power of white supremacy, reduce the political power of white people.

Trump is President because they have a disproportionate amount of power in the EC.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Blacks have historically higher union participation, in part because they have historically been concentrated in positions that are easier to unionise. Wage inequality would be lower if union participation was still as high.

But... let's not pretend that unions don't also have a history of a strain of racism running through it in America. Or that inclusion in the unions has necessarily always been about respect for diversity itself, as opposed to simply survival.

This similarly applies to unions and immigration reform.

 

[Y2Kev]

If you are voting in the primary, you are more politically interested than the normal person (by far). So as a pollster, you're less likely to have non-response issues in the primary than in the presidential.

so you're saying

partisan non-response bias leading to systemic polling error

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Tester is a no on Gorsuch https://twitter.com/SenatorTester/status/848687719765209089

RIP filibuster

 

[B-Dubs]

Tester is a no on Gorsuch https://twitter.com/SenatorTester/status/848687719765209089

RIP filibuster

We'll see if McConnell even has the votes. There's been rumblings he doesn't.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

I mean the whole "dignity" thing, let's face it is a white person thing. And if we're drilling down a man thing. It's a relative thing. It's a I used to be able to earn lots just by virtue of being a white man. And now I can't and I might have to be in a service job. And I might need to serve people younger than me, or heavens to Betsy blacker than me. Or worse a woman.

Let's not pretend that people of colour who are pretty darn used to getting knocked down have this false sense of being owed more "dignity" than everyone else.

If we're oh my goshing we may as well be blunt about it. And recognize it's not just dignity, it's also privilege.

I agree with this, and I'd like to point out that any solution to helping these people has to accept the reality that most of these people are as relevant to the workforce as a telegram operator or a cotton picker. They want jobs that pay $80K a year with benefits that requires no education or re-training and involves no service to other human beings; my father-in-law's response to someone saying this would be, "And I want to be a Chinese fighter pilot."

The discussion about retail also left out the first part of the equation; if people really do prefer to spend more to buy local, wouldn't they have done that and continued to patron these businesses? I know if you try to break up Amazon into smaller shittier companies that can't do as well as Amazon, I'm not going to back that. I'd rather just take my good service and prices and tax more to hand out basic incomes; there's no reason to force shitty businesses on people just to prop them up. For all their crap, there's a reason people are happier using Uber over cabs.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

We'll see if McConnell even has the votes. There's been rumblings he doesn't.

Collins and Murkowski said they were both pro-nuclear option, which makes me skeptical that there's real opposition to it now that they know there's enough Democrats to hold the filibuster.

 

[Diablos]

We'll see if McConnell even has the votes. There's been rumblings he doesn't.

Oh he has the votes if he goes nuclear. No doubt.

 

[Dan]

Financial Times - Donald Trump in his own words

Some doozies in this interview.

How ambitious do you want to be with China? Could we see a grand bargain that solves North Korea, takes American troops off the Korean peninsula and really changes the landscape out there? 
Well, if China is not going to solve North Korea, we will. That is all I am telling you.

And do you think you can solve it without China’s help?
Totally. 

One on one?
I don’t have to say any more. Totally. 

Are you still enjoying the job?
I am really liking it. I’ve enjoyed it. I’ve enjoyed it. We have done a lot . . . We’re doing great. The jobs: Ford just announced they are doing three major plants, three major expansions, thousands of jobs; General Motors, Fiat, [a] couple of them off the record because ‘Why do I need this for?’ But a couple of them were going to build in Mexico, now they are building in Michigan. Now they are building in Ohio. We got it going.

LOL, claiming credit for secret jobs deals, as if it's remotely believable he wouldn't be talking about them if they could even tangentially be connected to administration policy or involvement.

Do you regret any of your tweets? 
I don’t regret anything, because there is nothing you can do about it. You know if you issue hundreds of tweets, and every once in a while you have a clinker, that’s not so bad. Now my last tweet, you know the one that you are talking about perhaps, was the one about being in quotes wire tapped, meaning surveilled. Guess what, it is turning out to be true . . . I predicted Brexit.

Comparing his 'prediction' of Brexit with his wiretapping tweets. Umm...

 

[kirblar]

Courtesy of @thomasjwood and @electionstudies ... nothing going on here no sir

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Courtesy of @thomasjwood and @electionstudies ... nothing going on here no sir

Cool okay, point out where I said Trump or his supporters weren't racist!

Or alternatively, why are white people in Kenosha or Erie voting less for Trump than white people in Fairfax or Waukesha?

 

[pigeon]

Collins and Murkowski said they were both pro-nuclear option, which makes me skeptical that there's real opposition to it now that they know there's enough Democrats to hold the filibuster.

The most recent comments I'm seeing from Collins don't look all that pro-filibuster. I think she has a pretty strong incentive to suggest that she'd be pro-nuclear to try to force a deal, without committing to the vote.

Ultimately, we'll see.

 

[pigeon]

Cool okay, point out where I said Trump or his supporters weren't racist!

Or alternatively, why are white people in Kenosha or Erie voting less for Trump than white people in Fairfax or Waukesha?

What's the educational breakdown?

 

[kirblar]

Cool okay, point out where I said Trump or his supporters weren't racist!

Or alternatively, why are white people in Kenosha or Erie voting less for Trump than white people in Fairfax or Waukesha?

Because Fairfax, County VA is absurdly diverse and well-educated and exposure to people who aren't like you helps dampen the racism?

 

[Diablos]

Totally. That's all I'm saying. Because I don't really know what the fuck I'm talking about.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Because Fairfax, County VA is absurdly diverse and well-educated and exposure to people who aren't like you helps dampen the racism?

But the numbers show the reverse: white people in Fairfax are slightly less likely to be Hillary supporters than white people in Kenosha, even though white people in Kenosha theoretically should be more racist due to the lack of diversity.

What's the educational breakdown?

Not sure, I don't know where to get city-level voting numbers without just adding up precincts (which is too much work) but I also don't know where to get county-level educational breakdowns. It's hard for me to imagine Fairfax being less educated than Erie though.

 

[chadskin]

Jared Kushner is in Iraq right now, a senior administration official confirms.

https://twitter.com/maggienyt/status/848702920128438272

He will defeat ISIL, ya'll.

 

[Poodlestrike]

The most recent comments I'm seeing from Collins don't look all that pro-filibuster. I think she has a pretty strong incentive to suggest that she'd be pro-nuclear to try to force a deal, without committing to the vote.

Ultimately, we'll see.

This is my hope, but honestly, with Republicans I assume that the most despicable option is the one they'll take.

https://twitter.com/maggienyt/status/848702920128438272

He will defeat ISIL, ya'll.

Not gonna fix the government bureaucracy from Iraq no sir.

God he is just wearing a comical number of hats.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

https://twitter.com/maggienyt/status/848702920128438272

He will defeat ISIL, ya'll.

And working on a Sunday too! Is there anything Kushner can't do?

 

[tuxfool]

https://twitter.com/maggienyt/status/848702920128438272

He will defeat ISIL, ya'll.

Cool, the Secretary of State is in Iraq.

 

[pigeon]

And working on a Sunday too! Is there anything Kushner can't do?

Well, Sunday isn't his day of rest.

 

[GrapeApes]

https://twitter.com/maggienyt/status/848702920128438272

He will defeat ISIL, ya'll.

This is how I feel everytime I read about the Kushman doing diplomatic shit.

 

[pigeon]

Not gonna fix the government bureaucracy from Iraq no sir.

God he is just wearing a comical number of hats.

The best part about all the wonder boy Jared stuff is the article they did this week about how Jared and Ivanka are losing touch with their liberal friends because they're angry that Jared isn't doing anything to stem the tide of evil.

 

[smokeymicpot]

https://twitter.com/maggienyt/status/848702920128438272

He will defeat ISIL, ya'll.

Why?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Allow Gorush confirmation without use of nuclear option in exchange for Select Committee/Independent Investigation of Trump-Russia.

 

[Poodlestrike]

Allow Gorush confirmation without use of nuclear option in exchange for Select Committee/Independent Investigation of Trump-Russia.

You cannot

*clap emoji*

Make deals

*clap emoji*

With Republicans

*clap emoji*

They don't speak or act in good faith.

Besides, we shouldn't have to give them ANYTHING to investigate Trump. Don't lower the bar for them like that.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Allow Gorush confirmation without use of nuclear option in exchange for Select Committee/Independent Investigation of Trump-Russia.

fillibuster gorush and demand a select committee.

Why do dems love to invent supposed trades with fictional partners?

 

[illiniguy05]

Courtesy of @thomasjwood and @electionstudies ... nothing going on here no sir

How do I interpret these questions and this graph? It seems like a positive response to the 2nd and 3rd questions would tend to indicate latent recism, but not the 1st and 4th? Am I not as woke as I thought?

 

[BoogieWoogie]

You cannot

*clap emoji*

Make deals

*clap emoji*

With Republicans

*clap emoji*

They don't speak or act in good faith.

Besides, we shouldn't have to give them ANYTHING to investigate Trump. Don't lower the bar for them like that.

Yep.

Dems: Gorusch for Independent Committee?
GOP: Yep, you guys vote first.
Dems: Ok done. Now about that Committee.
GOP: What committee?

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

Allow Gorush confirmation without use of nuclear option in exchange for Select Committee/Independent Investigation of Trump-Russia.

This will backfire in no time.

 

[kirblar]

How do I interpret these questions and this graph? It seems like a positive response to the 2nd and 3rd questions would tend to indicate latent recism, but not the 1st and 4th? Am I not as woke as I thought?

The graph is showing the difference between the voters' (Obama/McCain, Clinton/Trump, etc.) responses in each election cycle.

The electorate is polarizing on this issue.

 

[shinra-bansho]

So since we're back here once again. What is the particular purpose of looking at three arbitrary locales? Beyond an attempt to classplain #notallracistvoting I guess.

I mean there's this kind of obsessive need (by white people) to figure out "why are these other white people racist" as if there'll be some eureka moment to show it's the egg not the chicken. Okay sure there's some degree of need for these voters to come back into the fold - I understand that. And is #economicanxiety contributing to underlying racial resentment being displayed in voting patterns, I think probably, to varying degrees. Is it being easily turned on the "other" sure. Is everyone chomping at the bit to join a lynch mob, no, obviously - but there's a strange idea that you need to get to this point to be like a real racist. (I guess perhaps then racial resentment, our PC version of racist should be the go to.)

But for the most part it often feels like these discussions are more about absolving responsibility. Downplaying racism/racial resentment as just a symptom. And soothing one's own sensibilities that surely not that many people can be racists. That deep down everyone's good people, because the magnitude of racists makes it implausible.

People are racist.
Lots of people.