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[GhaleonEB]

Obama should just make an ad where he calls John McCain a liar straight to the camera and refutes all this "Barack is going to tax working Americans" bullshit.

McCain's ads are so fucking misleading, it's insane that they're allowed to run.

I agree he needs to call lies, well, lies. And repeatedly, with proof and outside quotes. He put out a statement today calling the new Palin ad a lie, straight up. Every time I see that I get hopeful, but we'll see.

 

[AniHawk]

my dad just e-mailed me this article. ::



holy crap.

That sure is a lot of fuckcrazy.

 

[Particle Physicist]

That sure is a lot of fuckcrazy.

i dont even know where to begin.. how the hell do i respond to that?

 

[Fatalah]

Yeah everything is spinning out of control at this point.

DAMNIT, what did you do to the real door2dawn?!

 

[Lemonz]

Hillary Clinton is speaking

http://www.cnn.com/video/live/live.html?stream=stream1

 

[gkryhewy]

Why all the panic today? I'm actually really encouraged that Obama's poll sliding appears to have stabilized at a dead-heat, on this Monday that should be the absolute peak of McCain's bump.

my dad just e-mailed me this article. ::



holy crap.

That's not unbelievably biased or anything:

His peculiar dependency on an assertive and often rancorous spouse, I argued, made him vulnerable, and predicted that Obama "will destroy himself before he destroys the country".

Some interesting stuff, but slanted as negatively as possible. What's wrong with your dad?

 

[Particle Physicist]

lol at the conclusion of this article: http://foxforum.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/09/08/atantaros0908/

If McCain pulls it off and Palin becomes Vice President she should skip “The Oprah Winfrey Show” and give an exclusive to “Ellen” instead. It’ll be there that they can blast “I’m Every Woman.” She’ll certainly have something to dance about.

:lol does she even know where palin stands on homosexuality? ellen is gay! :/

 

[sprsk]

I really don't know what Obama should do strategically.

Everything just seems like a bad idea to me.

 

[gcubed]

lol at the conclusion of this article: http://foxforum.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/09/08/atantaros0908/




:lol does she even know where palin stands on homosexuality? ellen is gay! :/

most .... pundits are idiots... as proven by the last 3 weeks

edit: sorry, had to fix it and be fair across the board

 

[AniHawk]

:lol does she even know where palin stands on homosexuality? ellen is gay! :/

I guess she could always go on the Tyra Banks show. But then you'd be on a show with Tyra Banks.

 

[besada]

I just heard Palin speaking about "our coming victory in Iraq".

God must have told her something -- like how to redefine victory in such a way that you can claim one without meeting any of your stated objectives.

 

[Fatalah]

Hillary Clinton is speaking

http://www.cnn.com/video/live/live.html?stream=stream1

Again I ask, how can I watch CNN video without having to download their plugin?

 

[Clevinger]

lol at the conclusion of this article: http://foxforum.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/09/08/atantaros0908/




:lol does she even know where palin stands on homosexuality? ellen is gay! :/

McCain went on Ellen. Of course the interview was some incredibly awkward shit, but still.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

I just heard Palin speaking about "our coming victory in Iraq".

God must have told her something -- like how to redefine victory in such a way that you can claim one without meeting any of your stated objectives.

It's not difficult. "Mission Accomplished" was declared years ago.

 

[gkryhewy]

How do you win an occupation?

 

[Barrett2]

I just heard Palin speaking about "our coming victory in Iraq".

God must have told her something -- like how to redefine victory in such a way that you can claim one without meeting any of your stated objectives.

To speak about Iraq in those terms is beyond crazy, it is pure fantasy land. We already won the war! We overthrew the government and put a friendly regime in place! That's called winning!! All the troops are doing now is patrolling the streets like beat-cops in a dangerous city. "Winning the war?" Jesus Christ, what is wrong with these people? I can't believe people are so stupid as to see the war in those terms.... un-fucking believable.

 

[Door2Dawn]

Why all the panic today? I'm actually really encouraged that Obama's poll sliding appears to have stabilized at a dead-heat, on this Monday that should be the absolute peak of McCain's bump.



That's not unbelievably biased or anything:



Some interesting stuff, but slanted as negatively as possible. What's wrong with your dad?

The only reason why people are shitting there pants today is because of the USATODAY/GALLOP poll that was released yesterday.

It's funny(and at the same time,really annoying) to see people freaking out about this,ignoreing the fact that this bump in the polls was to be expected.

 

[bob_arctor]

So what's the latest? Are we all slicing our wrists with rusty, dull razors now or what?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Indiana: Okay, this makes no sense to go blue this year. Aside from Bayh, there's barely no other Democrat in a major position.

I wouldn't place the chances as high either, but there is the odd fact that as of 2006 Indiana's representation in Congress is majority Democratic. 1-1 Senate, 5-4 House.

 

[Tyrone Slothrop]

sarah palin makes me want to commit homicide

 

[JayDubya]

We already won the war! We overthrew the government and put a friendly regime in place! That's called winning!! All the troops are doing now is patrolling the streets like beat-cops in a dangerous city.

Kinda what I was thinkin', yeah.

 

[Door2Dawn]

So what's the latest? Are we all slicing our wrists with rusty, dull razors now or what?

Look at page 88-89.

 

[Freedom = $1.05]

Jesus, it's like the damn NPD's over here. Chill the fuck out, people. If Wright didn't sink Obama against a resilient Hilary then WTF is a shitty shitty pick for VP and a bore of an old man like McCain going to throw at him?

I'm saving all my panic for the evening of November 4. I'd suggest you do the same.

Resistance 2 comes out November 4th but I also might do some volunteering and will probably want to watch election coverage too. ARGH!

Surely you can't be serious?

 

[Fatalah]

The only reason why people are shitting there pants today is because of the USATODAY/GALLOP poll that was released yesterday.

It's funny(and at the same time,really annoying) to see people freaking out about this,ignoreing the fact that this bump in the polls was to be expected.

There HE IS!

 

[reilo]

Oh shit.

Chuck Todd got a CNN style electoral map and display to play with!

 

[gkryhewy]

The details of today's Diageo/Hotline are very interesting. Could things (in their sample) BE any more even?

Look at the favorability ratings on the right: http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/

 

[AniHawk]

Heh. The Palin pick/Rep convention drove up Democratic enthusiasm more than I'd thought. Did a better job than the Democratic convention.

 

[bob_arctor]

How do you win an occupation?

By making sure to stay long enough so that sectarian purging becomes the new 9th inning rally.

 

[JayDubya]

Jesus, it's like the damn NPD's over here. Chill the fuck out, people. If Wright didn't sink Obama against a resilient Hilary then WTF is a shitty shitty pick for VP and a bore of an old man like McCain going to throw at him?

I'm saving all my panic for the evening of November 4. I'd suggest you do the same.

At least with NPDs, you're dealing with a real event. People went to stores and bought those things, this is the result.

With polls, you're dealing with people's opinions regarding an upcoming choice that's months and months way.

 

[Stinkles]

I just heard Palin speaking about "our coming victory in Iraq".

God must have told her something -- like how to redefine victory in such a way that you can claim one without meeting any of your stated objectives.

I just heard her repeat almost verbatim her conference speech. Complete with all those lies.

^

At least with NPDs, you're dealing with a real event. People went to stores and bought those things, this is the result.

With polls, you're dealing with people's opinions regarding an upcoming choice that's months and months way.

And NPDs deal with a relatively incredible statistical sample. Like polling 70% of the country.

 

[bob_arctor]

I just heard her repeat almost verbatim her conference speech. Complete with all those lies.

"It's not so much that I want to hate you, Mrs. Palin. It's that your wanton bullshit is making it tough not to."

 

[yoopoo]

Again I ask, how can I watch CNN video without having to download their plugin?

http://www.cnn.com/video/live/cnnlive_1.asx

 

[AniHawk]

Gallup daily is up, 49-44 McCain.

 

[so_awes]

Again I ask, how can I watch CNN video without having to download their plugin?

yeah that plugin is garbage.

i use IE to watch their live stream, no plugin to download.

 

[reilo]

But some of the internal numbers in the polls really throw one for a loop. For example, take a look at these numbers from the new USA Today / Gallup poll. John McCain has moved into a 4-point lead in their registered voter numbers, and a 10-point lead in their likely voter numbers. I do not find the latter number especially credible, as the Gallup likely voter model is infamous for overstating the effects of short-term shifts in enthusiasm. Nevertheless, even sticking with the registered voter numbers, John McCain has received a pretty decent-sized bounce.

And yet, when this same poll asked voters whether the Republican convention had made them more or less likely to vote for John McCain, the results were fairly tepid. Just 43 percent responded with "more likely" as compared to 38 percent who said "less likely". That +5 score would make the GOP convention one of the least successful conventions in recent memory, trailing only the 2004 Republican convention which scored at a +3.

Could it be the Sarah Palin factor -- irrespective of the events of the convention itself? Certainly, this seems like it must be part of the story. But, as I've documented here, while Palin receives an unusually high number of strongly favorable ratings, she also received an unusually high number of unfavorable ratings. Gallup shows her at a +8 in terms of her effect of likelihood of voting for GOP ticket, not much different than Joe Biden's +7 (although with much higher numbers expressing an opinion on either side, as opposed to people who say her selection makes no difference).

My horse sense is that the numbers are affected to some degree to response bias. Republicans, especially evangelical conservatives, are pumped now, after having been indifferent toward John McCain for most of the election cycle. They may be picking up the phone when a pollster calls when they had been screening out the call before, perhaps to the extent that they are biasing the sample. In a recent SurveyUSA poll that asked people who had seen both McCain and Obama's convention speeches to rate the candidates on various issues, the partisan identification of the sample actually tilted Republican by a couple of points. Perhaps that is a consequence of the Republican and Democratic conventions having received roughly equal television ratings, but perhaps it is also a reflection of response bias.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/response-bias-and-shy-tory-factor.html

538 dumbfounded by some of the polling methods.

In other words, calm the fuck down!

 

[Fatalah]

http://www.cnn.com/video/live/cnnlive_1.asx

HOLY CRAP! You are awesome, I can't believe this.

 

[Stoney Mason]

^

At least with NPDs, you're dealing with a real event. People went to stores and bought those things, this is the result.

With polls, you're dealing with people's opinions regarding an upcoming choice that's months and months way.

Roughly agree. It scares me a bit how much faith people put in things like 538 or certain polling metrics this far out. I'm not saying they don't have their uses, but I sometimes think people think these numbers are the absolute truth rather than a variable ephemeral snapshot of a version of the truth at one frozen moment in time.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Heh. The Palin pick/Rep convention drove up Democratic enthusiasm more than I'd thought. Did a better job than the Democratic convention.

It really fired up the conservatives, though, which is what she was meant to do. But that's still a good sign that dems are as enthusiasitic as they are.

Kos did a reality-check, using Pollster.com average:

Factor out states that are within six points, and the race is:

Obama 243, McCain 132

Using the same method, at the same point in time last election it was:

Bush 213, Kerry 165

Obama is not Kerry.

 

[Justin Timberlake]

I know a lot of people have been looking at Colorado as the key tipping point this election and I don't disagree, but I think that Ohio is still the total tossup state that it was in 2004, with maybe a slightly more Dem-leaning tilt than that year.

Colorado? No way. Virginia will decide this election, no doubt about it. Colorado will only be significant if NH also swings blue. VA is gonna be important no matter what.

 

[AniHawk]

Yesterday's numbers:
Thursday: Obama + 2.4
Friday: McCain + 4.2
Saturday: McCain + 7.2
Average: McCain + 3

Today's numbers:
Friday: McCain+4.2
Saturday: McCain+7.2
Sunday: McCain+3.6
Average: McCain+5

McCain's lead is gonna shrink pretty fast. Especially two days from now when that big Saturday's factored out. Could go up on 9/11 though because people are stupid.

Also, I think this is the lowest Obama's ever gone against McCain, and this is definitely the highest McCain's ever gone against Obama.

 

[Soybean]

This thread moves so fast. If this has been posted, my apologies. It was in one of the comments at fivethirtyeight.com.

Don't Panic!
http://aabw.blogspot.com/2008/09/dont-panic.html

 

[The Blue Jihad]

i dont even know where to begin.. how the hell do i respond to that?

Start by ripping into Palin. Provide the links, the history, the public records, the earmark documentation. Show that she isn't a reformer at all. Show that she doesn't remotely have the same experience as Obama. When Palin was participating in Miss Alaska beauty pageant, Obama was graduating from Columbia University. When she was working as a sportscaster at some piss-ant little TV network, Obama was finishing up his work as director of DCP.

Show your dad the differences between the two veep picks. Palin was chosen out of political desperation. Biden was chosen to complement Obama's strengths.

 

[Xisiqomelir]

Hey PoliGAF, quick question, when do you think the RNC bounce will peak out for JSA this week? Today? Tomorrow?

I ask because I want to buy Bambam on Intrade and I'd like to get in as cheaply as possible.

 

[Fragamemnon]

This is one thing we can all agree on:

The degree to which McCain has sold himself out to try to win this is nothing short of remarkable. Regardless of who wins in November, I really want to see a biographer properly document the "McChange" from 2002 or so to 2008.

 

[ronito]

my dad just e-mailed me this article. ::



holy crap.

You are going to respond to that crap right? I mean you can disagree with Obama all you want but to say his campaign was hate filled when compared to the Republicans? That's like the pot calling the paper black.

 

[tanod]

i dont even know where to begin.. how the hell do i respond to that?

Send him a link to the convention speech. Tell him to watch it again. After he gets done, tell him that the article is the biggest pile of bullshit you've ever seen.

 

[Barrett2]

Here's my theory on Palin:

Republicans have been desperately searching for an emerging leader for the last two years, hoping to shake off the Bush years with a new vision for America. If you look at the Republican primary process, it was basically a rollercoaster ride of Republicans getting extremely hyped every time a new candidate entered the race, with their polling numbers shooting through the roof, only to crash back down to Earth. Look at Giuliani, Huckabee, Thompson, Gingrich, even Romney in some circles. But, each of these people eventually proved to just be tired-old-Republicans dressed up to look like legit agents of reform / change. Right now Palin is receiving the same positive frenzy that each of the aforementioned received, the only difference now is that she is 'locked in' to the election. However, I think as people continue to digest her selection & learn more about her, they will lose interest as they did with Romney, Huck, 9/11-Giuliani, Thompson, etc. The question, IMO, is whether the disinterest curve will kick-in for Palin before or after the election.

 

[PhatSaqs]

Obama should be all over the McChange flip flop from experience.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

I was told that the USA Today - Gallup poll consisted of 40% Republican, 28% Democrat and 32% Independent. Is that true?

 

[Gruco]

Roughly agree. It scares me a bit how much faith people put in things like 538 or certain polling metrics this far out. I'm not saying they don't have their uses, but I sometimes think people think these numbers are the absolute truth rather than a variable ephemeral snapshot of a version of the truth at one frozen moment in time.

We're limited by the tools we're given. Anything is variable by events over the next two months.

Given the choice between a complex regression analysis and control for poller accuracy and trends, vs daily tracking polls...Plus, people have added faith in Nate for his performance in the primaries. Plus, the baseball shit.