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[Keylime]

That is a really interesting polls. Can someone estimate from viewership numbers who will win in Nov. j/k

Not really a joke!

How much bigger is Fox's audience in comparison to the other networks...and why the fuck is Fox News still allowed to exist?

We seriously need to just admit that the Media is just as much a branch of the Government, and they need checks and balances. You can't spew out bullshit and call it fact to the people of the country.

I liked the word used by some dude on NPR last night, Infotainment. That's really all the news has become. Attractive female news casters with lowcut tops. Loud and unruly hosts. More speculation than reporting.

To be informed these days you have to do a lot of fucking homework, and the American people in general just will not do it.

I swear there needs to be a competency test before you can vote:

Which one of these energy policies is Barack Obama's?
A) Inflating your tires, selling some of the federal reserve, windfall taxes on big oil, potentially offshore drilling.
B) Setting up nuclear reactors in NYC, Philadelphia, San Francisco and Little Rock
C) Becoming best friends with Iraq and Iran, studying under Islam and asking nicely for more oil from our new Middle Eastern friends

Which one of these Iraq War strategies is John McCain's?
A) Leaving with a set timetable
B) Not leaving, ever
C) Not "surrendering" and staying until the set goals of the attack are met and order and democracy is restored, which could be anywhere from 50 to 100 years.

Which one of these candidates told their wife than they were both a "trollop" and a "cunt"?
A) Barack Obama
B) John McCain
C) Bill O'Reilly

Which one of these candidates volunteered their wife to participate in the equivalent of a wet t-shirt contest in August of 2008 at a biker rally?
A) Barack Obama
B) John McCain
C) Sean Hannity

50 bucks says you'd cut the number of voters in half.

 

[scorcho]

Gaborn doesn't need data to support his theories. it's always up to everyone else to illustrate data to disprove him.

 

[Gaborn]

No assumptions at all. The data shows that there is no meaningful spike in voter turnout when obviously racist candiates run or do not run. That does not support and indeed throws into heavy doubt your hypothesis that racists only vote for obviously racist candidates. Where is your data that supports your hypothesis?

You want me to prove a negative? Racists tend to be non-voters, I'm looking for the data, and I know it's out there but I'm honestly having trouble finding it. I know I saw it a year or two though... One thing to look at, the poor and uneducated (thought to be higher concentrations of racism) don't vote much.

 

[Azih]

You want me to prove a negative?

Racists only vote for third party candidate campaigning on an explicitly pro-segregation platform is not a negative.

 

[Gaborn]

Racists only vote for third party candidate campaigning on an explicitly pro-segregation platform is not a negative.

True, as I said, I'm having a little difficulty finding the data I remember, I don't necessarily expect you to accept what I'm saying, but it's very well documented the poor and less educated do not typically vote (and that they tend to hold more negative attitudes towards other races)

 

[scorcho]

i see someone hasn't taken a research methods class

 

[Gaborn]

i see someone hasn't taken a research methods class

I see someone still can't accept that fraud can occur without being measured except by requiring ID.

 

[scorcho]

I see someone still can't accept that fraud can occur without being measured except by requiring ID.

from one that constantly asks for empircal data to prove him wrong, dismisses it when it's returned and rebuts with nothing but rhetoric.

let's henceforth call this tactic 'pulling a Gaborn'

 

[mckmas8808]

Another day, another general poll.

CBS News/NYT: Obama 45%, McCain 39%. 6% spread is the same as three weeks ago, the last poll.


bubububub.....

Honestly is the media talking about Obama's lead among working class whites? I mean they had everything to say about it when he was losing it to Hillary.

The way I see it, if you guys want to see if racial bias is at play lets see if the media questions why McCain can't win over working class whites against a relatively new/young black male even when he (McCain the American war hero) can't seem to defeat Obama on his own turf.

 

[Tamanon]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/06/obama.polls/index.html

The link to this story is "Obama faces uphill battle".....

One wonders what McCain must be facing if a 5-point lead in the article is considered an "uphill battle"

 

[Hitokage]

True, as I said, I'm having a little difficulty finding the data I remember, I don't necessarily expect you to accept what I'm saying, but it's very well documented the poor and less educated do not typically vote (and that they tend to hold more negative attitudes towards other races)

Even without you pulling that data I can tell you have serious methodology problems in that line of argument, and because you want me to spell it out, you're proposing to argue that because poor people tend to be racist and poor people tend to not vote, racists do not vote.

Do you really even care about data?

 

[Gaborn]

Even without you pulling that data I can tell you have serious methodology problems in that line of argument.

Do you even really care about data?

Well, keep in mind this all goes back to a TNR story I posted earlier, which apparently no one cared to read, which I simply found interesting, not to mention people laying the ground work to claim that if Obama loses it will be because he's half black.

 

[The Librarian]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/06/obama.polls/index.html

The link to this story is "Obama faces uphill battle".....

One wonders what McCain must be facing if a 5-point lead in the article is considered an "uphill battle"

A backwards up-hill battle?

 

[scorcho]

[seriously, for the last time since Gaborn somehow thinks he 'pwned' me in this exchange]

Gaborn: fraud exists! voter ID laws are the only way to prevent it.
me: (pulls data showing fraud cases to be infinitesimally small and mostly clerical errors, research showing voter ID legislation to potentially disenfranchise mostly minority/poor voters, articles pointing to voter ID laws to prevent only a specific type of fraud that is not systemic, and easy to spot)
Gaborn: (5 minutes to 'read' several large PDFs pushed out by various state election boards and research from the Brennan Center) that's meaningless. what about other types of fraud?
me: where's the data
Gaborn: it doesn't exist. the only way to identify this unknown fraud is by instituting voter ID laws.
me: so we need to enact voter ID laws to count the fraud that voter ID laws are subsequently supposed to prevent.
Gaborn: yes.
me: where's the data
Gaborn: no, where's YOUR data

 

[Hitokage]

Yeah, there's something called burden of proof.

 

[Gaborn]

[seriously, for the last time since Gaborn somehow thinks he 'pwned' me in this exchange]

Gaborn: fraud exists! voter ID laws are the only way to prevent it.
me: (pulls data showing fraud cases to be infinitesimally small and mostly clerical errors, research showing voter ID legislation to potentially disenfranchise mostly minority/poor voters, articles pointing to voter ID laws to prevent only a specific type of fraud that is not systemic, and easy to spot)
Gaborn: (5 minutes to 'read' several large PDFs pushed out by various state election boards and research from the Brennan Center) that's meaningless. what about other types of fraud?
me: where's the data
Gaborn: it doesn't exist. the only way to identify this unknown fraud is by instituting voter ID laws.
me: so we need to enact voter ID laws to count the fraud that voter ID laws are subsequently supposed to prevent.
Gaborn: yes.
me: where's the data
Gaborn: no, where's YOUR data

Again though, you're missing the fact (or at least ignoring it) that there ARE types of fraud that can occur without ID. Your total rejection of that possibility is... annoying and limiting. Your assertion at the time was that they measured "voter fraud" (no disclaimer that they measured some voter fraud or one minor type that can be traced back to clerical error), and i maintain they did not. They measured a portion of voter fraud and you cannot claim it was most voter fraud which occurs in a general election, just as I'm not trying to assert that they measured the smallest part of voter fraud. The fact is we don't know how much it is occurring, but I still don't see the problem with asking for someone to provide SOME sort of evidence that they are who they are.

 

[Hitokage]

That there are other means of voter fraud isn't in dispute, that they are in any way significant is.

 

[Gaborn]

That there are other means of voter fraud isn't in dispute, that they are in any way significant is.

How can you measure the significance of a fraud if it is successful?

 

[sc0la]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/06/obama.polls/index.html

The link to this story is "Obama faces uphill battle".....

One wonders what McCain must be facing if a 5-point lead in the article is considered an "uphill battle"

He's old enough to remember when he would win battles uphill, both ways, in the snow.

 

[Tamanon]

I will say, this is a hilariously ironic argument from a Libertarian.

 

[Gaborn]

I will say, this is a hilariously ironic argument from a Libertarian.

Government has about 4 roles that most libertarians agree on. 1, Protection from threats at home. 2 Protections from threats abroad. 3 Enforcement of contracts. 4. protection from fraud, typically that refers to violations of IP and defamation of character, but it's not inconsistent with libertarianism to protect the integrity of the voting process.

 

[GhaleonEB]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/06/obama.polls/index.html

The link to this story is "Obama faces uphill battle".....

One wonders what McCain must be facing if a 5-point lead in the article is considered an "uphill battle"

Relatively few people heard it, and few else in the media will repeat it, but I was so glad Chuck Todd pointed out that a 5-6 point popular win translates to an electoral landslide.

 

[scorcho]

That there are other means of voter fraud isn't in dispute, that they are in any way significant is.

yep.

i never acknowledged that other types of fraud doesn't exist, but the potential disenfranchisement that is likely to occur amongst poor/minority voters greatly outweighs the VERY SMALL percentage of fraud that is likely to occur by not showing identification. especially in the situation you posited way back (the idea that one individual acting alone will realize their sick/passive neighbor won't vote and subsequently vote for both themselves and the other person).

do you honestly believe this occurs at any sizable number to influence elections? how can republican legislators claim this type of fraud rampant without proof? and if so, an easy way to identify this fraud will be for the person who was voted for to actually show up at the booth. there you go, an easy way to spot the fraud that voter ID laws are supposed to prevent. but...there's...no...data...pointing...to...this.

[end discussion because i'm tired of belaboring this point with you]

 

[Tamanon]

Government has about 4 roles that most libertarians agree on. 1, Protection from threats at home. 2 Protections from threats abroad. 3 Enforcement of contracts. 4. protection from fraud, typically that refers to violations of IP and defamation of character, but it's not inconsistent with libertarianism to protect the integrity of the voting process.

Right, I'm not saying that, I'm saying that generally any more government regulations require evidence.

 

[ronito]

Government has about 4 roles that most libertarians agree on. 1, Protection from threats at home. 2 Protections from threats abroad. 3 Enforcement of contracts. 4. protection from fraud, typically that refers to violations of IP and defamation of character, but it's not inconsistent with libertarianism to protect the integrity of the voting process.

you forgot "in that it can exclude the poor in the democratic process" at the end.

 

[Gaborn]

yep.

i never acknowledged that other types of fraud doesn't exist, but the potential disenfranchisement that is likely to occur amongst poor/minority voters greatly outweighs the VERY SMALL percentage of fraud that is likely to occur by not showing identification. especially in the situation you posited way back (the idea that one individual acting alone will realize their sick/passive neighbor won't vote and subsequently vote for both themselves and the other person).

do you honestly believe this occurs at any sizable number to influence elections? how can republican legislators claim this type of fraud rampant without proof?

[end discussion because i'm tired of belaboring this point with you]

Show me the data for this. You've shown me the data that measures fraud that can be identified without requiring ID, now show me that fraud that can be detected with ID is very small.

ronito - voter ID cards are free and most states accept things like an electrical bill or bank statement. If the poor are not living in a cardboard box (in which case they have more important things to worry about than voting) it's rather easy to prove you are who you say you are, and even in that case it's certainly possible.

 

[scorcho]

Show me the data for this.

anyone finding the humor in this?

 

[mckmas8808]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/06/obama.polls/index.html

The link to this story is "Obama faces uphill battle".....

One wonders what McCain must be facing if a 5-point lead in the article is considered an "uphill battle"

And the media is still the main ones playing the race card. I swear Im like 1 week away from thinking that most people in the media are racially biased against a black man winning more white voters.

Obama is winning the white vote now. Why is that NOT the big news story of the day?

 

[The Librarian]

Relatively few people heard it, and few else in the media will repeat it, but I was so glad Chuck Todd pointed out that a 5-6 point popular win translates to an electoral landslide.

Chuck Todd is so awesome.

 

[Tamanon]

And the media is still the main ones playing the race card. I swear Im like 1 week away from thinking that most people in the media are racially biased against a black man winning more white voters.

Obama is winning the white vote now. Why is that NOT the big news story of the day?

To be fair, he's winning the white working class vote, not the white vote as a whole. He's still down a good amount among old whites.

 

[PhoenixDark]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/06/obama.polls/index.html

The link to this story is "Obama faces uphill battle".....

One wonders what McCain must be facing if a 5-point lead in the article is considered an "uphill battle"

Probably because of the 9% undecided and the margin of error.

 

[syllogism]

Bububu CNN says "The Poll of Polls does not have a sampling error"

It's not like the media ever portrays the margin of error accurately. There is no "statistical tie".

 

[Keylime]

Chuck Todd is so awesome.

I saw Chuck on TV yesterday and the day before for the first times in forever it seemed like.

He was so dreamy as he detailed the electoral map... I wanted to groom his beard while he spoke...those ginger ribbon strands of sexiness...

 

[PhoenixDark]

In a set of interviews on pop culture, Entertainment Weekly asks the presidential candidates, "If you could be any superhero, which superhero would you be?"

Sen. John McCain: "Batman. He does justice sometimes against insurmountable odds. And he doesn't make his good works known to a lot of people, so a lot of people think he's just a rich playboy."

Sen. Barack Obama: "I was always into the Spider-Man/Batman model. The guys who have too many powers, like Superman, that always made me think they weren't really earning their superhero status. It's a little too easy. Whereas Spider-Man and Batman, they have some inner turmoil. They get knocked around a little bit."

http://politicalwire.com/

Good to see both have taste, and high five for Obama giving a nice "fuck you" to Superman

and now a poll with margin of error

A new SurveyUSA poll in Oregon finds Sen. Barack Obama just ahead of Sen. John McCain, 48 to 45%, within the survey's 4 point margin of sampling error.

Key findings: "Among voters younger than Obama, Obama leads by 15 points. Among voters older than McCain, Obama leads by 9. Among voters who are inbetween the ages of the two candidates, McCain leads by 9. McCain holds 82% of the GOP base. Obama holds 80% of the Democrat base. Independents split. McCain is backed by 80% of conservatives. Obama is backed by 83% of liberals. Moderates break 5:3 for Obama. McCain leads 2:1 among those who attend religious services regularly. Obama leads 2:1 among those who almost never attend religious services. Among men, McCain leads by 5 points. Among women, Obama leads by 13."

 

[scorcho]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12304.html

if true, Pelosi is being awfully crafty. offshore drilling alone won't be enough to save many (if any) Republican seats, and giving 'threatened' Democrats room to criticize is a nice strategy that, at least on the surface, shows a disorderly and divided Democratic caucus. bide time, let the other side tire itself out and reconvene with a greater Democratic majority later.

 

[mckmas8808]

To be fair, he's winning the white working class vote, not the white vote as a whole. He's still down a good amount among old whites.

That's true. But its just weird to see Obama winning the white working class vote and now NOBODY is talking about it. You'd think this could be the big news stories of the day given that this is the 2nd poll in a row that has Obama winning that vote by double digits.

 

[Eric P]

i just realized we can recycle all of our bob dole jokes

At a campaign stop in one of his famous town hall meetings, McCain was involved in the following exchange

"Senator McCain, I just wanted to thank you for your years of service, but there's just one thing I wanted to know. Do you wear boxers or briefs?"

Senator McCain looked flummoxed and replied "Depends"

 

[Mumei]

i just realized we can recycle all of our bob dole jokes

At a campaign stop in one of his famous town hall meetings, McCain was involved in the following exchange

"Senator McCain, I just wanted to thank you for your years of service, but there's just one thing I wanted to know. Do you wear boxers or briefs?"

Senator McCain looked flummoxed and replied "Depends"

... Please tell me that that actually happened and that there is video. :lol

 

[adamsappel]

i never acknowledged that other types of fraud doesn't exist, but the potential disenfranchisement that is likely to occur amongst poor/minority voters greatly outweighs the VERY SMALL percentage of fraud that is likely to occur by not showing identification. especially in the situation you posited way back (the idea that one individual acting alone will realize their sick/passive neighbor won't vote and subsequently vote for both themselves and the other person).

Yes, Gaborn, do you have anything other than this elaborate fantasy? That supposes that a random person will have to be:
sick enough not to vote (and the fraudulent voter absolutely sure this person would be too ill over the course of 12 hour polling day to make it to the polls, if they did the fraud would be discovered), or
on vacation (presupposing this person did not arrange for an absentee ballot knowing they would be absent from their district, in which case the fraud will be discovered), and
their neighbor (who most likely is at least friendly with the sick/absent person) will be willing to commit perjury to add a single vote, and
vote at the same polling place twice in a day, and
that this happens often enough to skew election results to warrant at least inconveniencing ALL voters.

ronito - voter ID cards are free and most states accept things like an electrical bill or bank statement.

Why not just accept electrical bills or bank statements as proof of ID at the polls, then? It eliminates the onerous middle step (are the IDs issued at the DMV, courthouse, ?, do you think those places not a PIA to go to?)?

 

[Y2Kev]

Well this thread just pulled a Gaborn!

 

[Eric P]

... Please tell me that that actually happened and that there is video. :lol

no, that's one of the recycle bob dole jokes

 

[Gaborn]

Yes, Gaborn, do you have anything other than this elaborate fantasy? That supposes that a random person will have to be:
sick enough not to vote (and the fraudulent voter absolutely sure this person would be too ill over the course of 12 hour polling day to make it to the polls, if they did the fraud would be discovered), or
on vacation (presupposing this person did not arrange for an absentee ballot knowing they would be absent from their district, in which case the fraud will be discovered), and
their neighbor (who most likely is at least friendly with the sick/absent person) will be willing to commit perjury to add a single vote, and
vote at the same polling place twice in a day, and
that this happens often enough to skew election results to warrant at least inconveniencing ALL voters.


Why not just accept electrical bills or bank statements as proof of ID at the polls, then? It eliminates the onerous middle step (are the IDs issued at the DMV, courthouse, ?, do you think those places not a PIA to go to?)?

That IS how it works in most states.

 

[Mumei]

no, that's one of the recycle bob dole jokes

=|

Bah.

 

[scorcho]

Well this thread just pulled a Gaborn!

"Gaborn never has to prove anything for whatever Gaborn says simply exists."

 

[GhaleonEB]

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gVZ2XCLgvUJDEKcTfcgfD06pZQyw

Hillary Clinton makes debut in McCain attack ad


WASHINGTON (AFP) — Hillary Clinton's critics said her strident attacks on Barack Obama would return as Republican fodder, and it came to pass Thursday as she made her debut in an ad for White House hopeful John McCain.

"John McCain is a maverick -- just ask Democrats," a caption reads in the new broadcast, which came a day after Obama dismissed McCain's "maverick" credentials by casting him as a third term for President George W. Bush.

The Republican's new Internet broadcast features prominent Obama supporters, including senators John Kerry and Joseph Biden, praising McCain as an honorable politician who is unafraid to reach across party lines.

It even includes a snippet from Obama himself, in January 2007, lauding a Senate bill co-sponsored by McCain on greenhouse gas emissions.

But the real sting comes with the final guest speaker -- Clinton, shown making a biting remark about Obama at the bitter height of their primary battle for the Democratic nomination in March this year.

"I know Senator McCain has a lifetime of experience he will bring to the White House. And Senator Obama has a speech he gave in 2002," she says in the Republican's ad.

Thanks, Hillary!

 

[Mandark]

Gaborn, your response to me was thoroughly fucking stupid.

 

[Gaborn]

"Gaborn never has to prove anything for whatever Gaborn says simply exists."

Are you capable of not engaging in personal attacks? Cause I really have no interest in engaging in a pissing matching.

And we have a new contender in Mandark!

 

[soul creator]

well he did say your response, not you personally

 

[Gaborn]

True, it's just amazing that he thinks that you can compare two electorates and assume you're talking about basically identical populations who will react to the candidates identically with the exception of racists.

 

[Keylime]

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gVZ2XCLgvUJDEKcTfcgfD06pZQyw


Thanks, Hillary!

Was only a matter of time before all that shit in the past comes back to bite us in the ass. Just goes to show you how fucked up it was to say shit like that back then...and people laughed at others for overreacting to shit like this.

This is why.