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[Trakdown]

ROFLMAO: Fallout 3 on Countdown!

Apparently, some jackass found pictures of a destroyed DC and claimed they were Al-Qaeda's- they're screenshots from Fallout 3!

 

[reilo]

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

In his BUSHED segment, Olbermann just made fun of an intelligence group that found a password protected image in a folder, and labeled it as something mocked up by terrorists as to "what they wish Washington DC should look like."

What was it?

:lol :lol :lol :lol

 

[Tamanon]

ROFLMAO: Fallout 3 on Countdown!

Apparently, some jackass found pictures of a destroyed DC and claimed they were Al-Qaeda's- they're screenshots from Fallout 3!

Not just some jackass, but a government think-tank!

 

[CowboyAstronaut]

I cannot believe this Pfleger made as much noise as it did in this news cycle.

He's such a good man too, it's bullshit.

Tell me that Fall out 3 shit isn't real...

 

[Guderian]

Great, now O'Reilly is gonna call Fallout 3 a terrorism simulator or some equally dumb shit.

 

[iapetus]

Not just some jackass, but a government think-tank!

Ah. A whole team of professional jackasses. That's less impressive than a single maverick jackass in many ways.

 

[TDG]

oh and repost your thing on Ohio, I would like to see it

I already gave the short version last page, which is pretty much the same, but here goes:

Outside of what any poll says, I think that it would take a miracle for Obama to win Ohio. In the past two general elections, the democrat has won Franklin county (high population, Columbus, lots of students from OSU) very narrowly, Cuyahoga (Cleveland, high population, high african-american population) handily, and Mahoning (Youngstown, depressed county, lots of racism) by a lot. Those are the three big counties for the democrats in Ohio, and just about everywhere else is low population and heavily republican (cincy is high population, slightly republican).

Now, Ohio outside of the cities is very rural, so I would imagine that Obama's numbers in the smaller, less important counties would be even less than Kerry's.

The keys will be:
Will Students in Columbus give Obama a big win in Franklin County?
Will the high african-american population in Cleveland lead to a really big win in Cuyahoga?
Will the rampant racism in heavily-democrat Mahoning lead to a win there for McCain?

 

[Trakdown]

Wow, and now a Sonic the Hedgehog pic in Best Persons. Keith going after the Gamer demographic.

 

[TheGrayGhost]

:lol

Well, at least the Republican party can KEEP the stupid

Democrats are stupid, too, unfortunately. Dumb, Dumb people. Racist, racist West Virginians.

 

[maximum360]

Good. Axelrod just called out CNN on their "less than effective reporting" (aka hitjob piece) on Obama's run for state office.

 

[TheGrayGhost]

Good. Axelrod just called out CNN on their "less than effective reporting" (aka hitjob piece) on Obama's run for state office.

Link?

That report actually made me like Obama even more! Damn, dude! Ballah!

 

[maximum360]

Great, now O'Reilly is gonna call Fallout 3 a terrorism simulator or some equally dumb shit.

That's great for Fallout 3. It will sell 3 times as much now. :lol

 

[PhoenixDark]

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

In his BUSHED segment, Olbermann just made fun of an intelligence group that found a password protected image in a folder, and labeled it as something mocked up by terrorists as to "what they wish Washington DC should look like."

What was it?

:lol :lol :lol :lol

new Gears 2 map omg

 

[CowboyAstronaut]

Good. Axelrod just called out CNN on their "less than effective reporting" (aka hitjob piece) on Obama's run for state office.

Saw it!!

Notice how quickly that woman wanted to change the subject??? Did you guys notice? She instantly moved on to something else! :lol

CNN also failed to point out that one of the people in that hitjob piece campaigned for obama in ohio... oh and the woman who NEVER ran for political office again is the one who recommended obama for the position and told her supporters to support Obama.

They only showed the negative parts of the interview, but neglected to mention they had a 45 minute interview with the person on which they were VERY positive about Obama. CNN only showed the parts that sounded negative.

 

[Tamanon]

Wait, Keith was fired by Rupert Murdoch? No wonder he decided to go super-crazy FOX-hating liberal and declare war.:lol

 

[KRS7]

McCain Obama polling trends in Ohio:

I live just outside Dayton and think Obama will win Montgomery county handily as well. The key to winning Ohio this year will be voter registration. Luckily Blackwell is out of the picture and we have a better chance of increasing the democratic rolls. There should be no widespread purging of voting rolls this year. Registering enough new voters may be enough to offset the racist vote. I agree Hamilton is not likely to go heavily democratic, but if he can tie there, that will help a lot. I guess I am more optimistic than you to think Ohio will go for the democrats this year. I've only lived here three years, so I might not have a realistic view of the rest of the state.

 

[CowboyAstronaut]

Let's see how many more times CNN is going to run that dirty Obama story.

 

[TheGrayGhost]

Well, the negative opinion of GWB doesn't seem to be affecting Republican voters for John McCain too much. We like to pine how McCain is GWB's "third term," but it just isn't working.

 

[TDG]

McCain Obama polling trends in Ohio:

http://www.pollster.com/08OHPresGEMvO600.png[IMG]

I live just outside Dayton and think Obama will win Montgomery county handily as well. The key to winning Ohio this year will be voter registration. Luckily Blackwell is out of the picture and we have a better chance of increasing the democratic rolls. There should be no widespread purging of voting rolls this year. Registering enough new voters may be enough to offset the racist vote. I agree Hamilton is not likely to go heavily democratic, but if he can tie there, that will help a lot. I guess I am more optimistic than you to think Ohio will go for the democrats this year. I've only lived here three years, so I might not have a realistic view of the rest of the state.[/QUOTE]
I wish I had your enthusiasm. Having lived in the state my whole life (Youngstown is where my whole family is now, I live in Columbus), I just think that Ohio is filled with a lot of dumb, stubborn people. :(
But man, if he does win I will give everybody I see a hug for the next week.

 

[so_awes]

wait what? Obama has another pastor problem??

 

[GhaleonEB]

wait what? Obama has another pastor problem??

Nope. But the media is trying to create one.

 

[KRS7]

wait what? Obama has another pastor problem??

It wasn't his pastor, infact it wasn't a pastor at all, it was a Roman Catholic priest. Obama immediately condemned the remarks and the priest apologized to Hillary. The media however will now link Obama to any crazy performance at Trinity. I must say that Trinity United needs to calm the fuck down over the next few months. They are not helping.

 

[thekad]

So where did the video come from anyway? Does ABC have someone staked out in the Church every Sunday?

 

[Tamanon]

So where did the video come from anyway? Does ABC have someone staked out in the Church every Sunday?

At least one of the networks do, there's ALWAYS reporters there, it's gotta be annoying. Revernd Moss has even started saying "Hi Hannity!" in his sermons.:lol

 

[KRS7]

So where did the video come from anyway? Does ABC have someone staked out in the Church every Sunday?

Trinity is not hiding their sermons. There is no need to station a camera crew there as they already have the equipment. They are a very large church that broadcast their masses nationally, locally, and on the web.

 

[ConfusingJazz]

So where did the video come from anyway? Does ABC have someone staked out in the Church every Sunday?

Its a big church. Big churches tend to put their stuff online.

 

[maximum360]

Does ABC have someone staked out in the Church every Sunday?

Yes.

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

I thought Obama has known this Catholic priest for years??

 

[Tamanon]

He has, he's a priest in Chicago. Everybody knows him.

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

Well of course the media will try and connect the two by saying how Obama knew the guy for years and will wonder why Obama never disassociated himself with the Catholic priest.

 

[Tamanon]

Exactly. And they'll ask the reaction of everyone they possibly can so they can come up with "New reactions to Obama's pastor problem!"

BTW, Ben Smith actually explains why this "hardball" story CNN is pushing is baloney.

If there's one particularly absurd storyline about Obama's early political career, it's the claim getting a rival knocked off the ballot in his first State Senate race was a form of something called "hardball," a dastardly form of politics endemic to Chicago.

I don't mean to pick particularly on CNN, because the story has appeared all over the place for the last year and a half, but that's where I happened to see it last.

I covered New York politics for quite a while, where the ballot access rules are, as in Chicago, stringent. You can argue that they set up an unjust barrier, aimed to protect incumbents. But that's hardly relevant here: Obama was the challenger, Alice Palmer the incumbent. These challenges are utterly run of the mill; with some exceptions, it's considered madness to let a rival who hasn't met the legal qualifications stay on the ballot.

It's also the case that anybody with the wherewithal to mount a large scale campaign and convince a lot of people to vote for her really should be able to gather, in the Obama-Palmer case, the signatures of 757 local Democrats. Candidates usually gather several times that number to be safe, a shadowy urban political activity involving feeding pizza to a bunch of volunteers.

In any case, Obama was hardly engaging in some horribly brutal form of politics specific to Chicago. His opponent had failed to meet a minimal legal qualification for running for the office. It would have been political malpractice for him to, essentially, give her a pass and say, "No, please, run anyway, it's on me."

To have let her on the ballot would have been the equivalent of, say, his giving John McCain some money.

There are other things they do in Chicago, New York, and most everywhere else that should provoke moral scruples. But they mostly involve breaking the law, not insisting on it.

 

[maximum360]

Exactly. And they'll ask the reaction of everyone they possibly can so they can come up with "New reactions to Obama's pastor problem!"

BTW, Ben Smith actually explains why this "hardball" story CNN is pushing is baloney.

When Ben Smith comes to Obama's defense it must really mean that it's over for Hillary.

 

[CowboyAstronaut]

I thought Obama has known this Catholic priest for years??

And there's nothing wrong with Obama knowing and respecting him. It's obvious he's a great person.

It's really a shame that to run for President you have to disassociate yourself with people like this, especially when they are genuinely good people.

It's almost as if Obama, as he is, is not fit for this Country's media. Until they get him to throw away all the people in his past, his church, his pastor, the man that married he and his wife, baptized both his daughters and various other things that have come to mold Obama into the man that he is now, they wont be satisfied.

I respect Obama for not outright insulting his pastor and wanting nothing to do with him and I'm happy he decided to do the very same in regards to this latest pastor situation. Why is Obama held to an entirely different standard of apology than Hilary Clinton or John McCain?

McCain didn't apologize for seeking Hagee's endorsement.

Holy shit... now this thing has officially gone too far. A Hilary supporter on Larry King just called the people inside Obama's church disgusting and repulsive for laughing and cheering the pastor on as he was saying the things he was saying.

"Disgusting and Repulsive people" Nice.. just nice.

Are you serious? How the fuck do you call a group of people in a church reacting to something that was clearly true AND funny at the very same time disgusting and repulsive? In all honesty this shit is totally getting out of hand. That statement was uncalled for and I would like for Obama to actually defend the people of the church from such a statement, but I don't think he will.

 

[Diablos]

McCain Obama polling trends in Ohio:

So close it's ridiculous. I was expecting him to have a much more impressive lead.

Obama needs to really sit down and think about who should be his running mate. He needs to pick someone that will help him in Ohio. If he doesn't, that'll be a huge mistake.

While I couldn't be happier that Obama is yet another step closer to finally getting the nomination he rightfully deserves, I am once again wondering if he'll be able to get enough states to win in the GE. The disgruntled gamer talking about one of the heavily Democratic strongholds being racist is not a good thing.

 

[Frank the Great]

So close it's ridiculous. I was expecting him to have a much more impressive lead.

Obama needs to really sit down and think about who should be his running mate. He needs to pick someone that will help him in Ohio. If he doesn't, that'll be a huge mistake.

he doesn't really need ohio, though. states like new mexico and colorado are more important for him.

i'm still shilling for richardson.

 

[Diablos]

he doesn't really need ohio, though. states like new mexico and colorado are more important for him.

i'm still shilling for richardson.

Are these states really as competitive as we think they are, though? Ohio just seems like a safer bet -- you carry Ohio and you win the election.

Also, one state no one seems to bring up is Wisconsin. Isn't McCain polling really well there? Obama needs everything Kerry got plus Ohio or Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa (or all four if he's super lucky). But he can't lose anything else from that 2004 map or he could (well, let's face it -- will) be in serious trouble.

 

[Frank the Great]

Are these states really as competitive as we think they are, though? Ohio just seems like a safer bet -- you carry Ohio and you win the election.

Also, one state no one seems to bring up is Wisconsin. Isn't McCain polling really well there? Obama needs everything Kerry got plus Ohio or Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa (or all four if he's super lucky). But he can't lose anything else from that 2004 map or he could (well, let's face it -- will) be in serious trouble.

iowa and colorado are pretty much gonna go obama no matter what this november. all he would need is any other state (he would be within 2 electoral votes of mccain at this point.) new mexico is obviously the perfect choice, but there is also nevada (richardson would help him in all three of these states.)

he also has as good of a chance of flipping virginia as he does ohio. so really, ohio isn't the top priority (though he will probably win that too).

it's still early for WI, they always vote democratic don't worry.

 

[Tamanon]

Shoot for the moon, go for the blowout.

 

[Diablos]

Hahaha, you know, this COULD happen:

The House decides! :lol

iowa and colorado are pretty much gonna go obama no matter what this november. all he would need is any other state (he would be within 2 electoral votes of mccain at this point.) new mexico is obviously the perfect choice, but there is also nevada (richardson would help him in all three of these states.)

he also has as good of a chance of flipping virginia as he does ohio. so really, ohio isn't the top priority (though he will probably win that too).

it's still early for WI, they always vote democratic don't worry.

I definitely agree that Iowa is a lock for Obama, which is awesome.
Colorado? Let's hope so.

Virginia, ehhh. I'd still say that its wishful thinking at this point. NoVA will obviously help, but the rest of the state could offset it.

 

[soul creator]

Obama's gonna win like 40 states compared to McCain's 10, I'm sure.

I can feel it in my bones

 

[Cheebs]

The House decides! :lol

that isnt a worry, the house dem dem dem

 

[DopeyFish]

http://www.kare11.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=512750

obama is starting the GE campaign where the GOP convention is taking place

it's like a smack in the face

 

[Amir0x]

http://www.kare11.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=512750

obama is starting the GE campaign where the GOP convention is taking place

it's like a smack in the face

Hehehehe.

I love Obama staying in their face.

It's like the Republican's worst nightmare

 

[Frank the Great]

Virginia, ehhh. I'd still say that its wishful thinking at this point. NoVA will obviously help, but the rest of the state could offset it.

check out this poll

i don't know anything about the geography of VA, but obama beats mccain very handily in all regions except "shenando" wherever that is.

VA definitely has a good shot of going blue, especially considering the democratic leadership in the state.

PS. obama can win the election with just kerry's states plus iowa and VA

 

[suaveric]

Couldn't Obama decide to be really magnanimous tomorrow and ask for both Florida and Michigan to be seated as-is? Assuming that the committee will halve the delegates coming from each state no matter what, then I think that is the highest road Obama could take and it would help win over some of these people who think he stole the election.

The uncommitted delegates from Michigan could choose to go with Clinton or Obama at the convention (I'd guess most would side with Obama). Clinton would have no leg to stand on to keep this fight going past Tuesday.

 

[Tamanon]

Couldn't Obama decide to be really magnanimous tomorrow and ask for both Florida and Michigan to be seated as-is? Assuming that the committee will halve the delegates coming from each state no matter what, then I think that is the highest road Obama could take and it would help win over some of these people who think he stole the election.

The uncommitted delegates from Michigan could choose to go with Clinton or Obama at the convention (I'd guess most would side with Obama). Clinton would have no leg to stand on to keep this fight going past Tuesday.

Realistically, they won't do that though. They still want to have SOME punishment so states don't do it in the future. No matter what Obama's camp wants.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

http://www.kare11.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=512750

obama is starting the GE campaign where the GOP convention is taking place

it's like a smack in the face

:lol :lol

He doesn't give a fuck. :lol :lol

 

[tnw]

it's not like minnesota is going to vote republican anyway. they've voted for a democrat since at least nixon.

 

[CowboyAstronaut]

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2008/05/heilemann_what_hillary_wants_a.html

Great article on what Hilary really wants. Some parts from it.

But a different analogy occurred to me the other day, one perhaps less comprehensively apt but so delightfully ironic that it would be a crime not to point it out. As anyone politically sentient in 1988 will vividly recall, the endgame of the Democratic primaries that year revolved around a challenger seen by his fans as a historic figure and his foes as a potential party-wrecker, and what concessions he might insist upon in order to fade quietly into the background. The inescapable question of the hour was, “What does Jesse Jackson want?”

Hillary Clinton, of course, is no Jesse Jackson (but neither, pace Bill Clinton’s comments on the eve of the South Carolina primary, is Obama). But the question posed by her behavior in the home stretch of this year’s nominating contest is precisely the same: “What does Hillary want?”

She wants to be president. Duh. And if it ain’t gonna happen this year, then her central objective is to make it as likely as possible in 2012. As I’ve written many times, Hillary believes with every fiber of her being that Obama is going to lose this year. (And so does her husband.) So her aim is to put herself in the best position possible to stand up on November 5 and say, if perhaps a tad more subtly than this, “I told you so.”

1. Is she going to quit sometime soon or fight on to the convention?


The former. Indeed, my guess is that she might very well be out of the race by the end of next week. For Hillary to be the Democratic nominee in 2012, she must limit the extent to which she’s seen as having caused Obama’s (in her mind, inevitable) loss this fall. And setting off on a scorched-earth march to Denver runs in diametric opposition to that goal. True, she keeps saying that she’s going all the way; true, she continues to press for the seating in full of the Florida and Michigan delegations. But Clinton has other things she might want from Obama, from a prominent speaking slot in Denver to help paying off her campaign debt. The more delegates she has in the end, the stronger her bargaining position.

2. Does she want to be offered the VP slot?

No, she does not. If it’s offered, she has to take it, because turning it down would be a signal to her supporters that she doesn’t support Obama (see above). And if she’s on the ticket and Obama goes down (again, as she’s convinced he will), she is then complicit in the loss, and her prospects in 2012 are damaged. Does Hillary want be the next John Edwards? The question answers itself.

3. So what’s with all the leaks that Bill wants her on the ticket?

He probably does. The idea of Hillary as veep must sound like a sweet deal to him: It would be history-making, it would cement the Clintons’ status as one of America’s great political dynasties, and in the second-fiddle job his wife would pose no danger of overshadowing him.

4. Will she work hard for Obama or undermine him in the fall?

She’s aware that even as she’s become a much larger figure in the course of this race in one segment of the party, her reputation has taken a beating in another. She thinks it’s unfair, but she knows it’s the reality, and also that whether Obama wins or loses, it’s difficult to imagine a promising future for herself without repairing her standing among those who regard her poorly. I suspect there won’t be many louder Obama cheerleaders this autumn — or more insincere ones.

5. If Obama wins, what will she do next?

One rumor going around New York is that she’ll run for governor — an eventuality only marginally more likely than my pursuing that office. HRC cares not a whit about state government. She loves Washington, thinks of it as home, and of Albany as hell (smart gal!). Consider further that becoming governor would require taking on the incumbent, David Paterson, who has indicated no intention to be a temporary fill-in. Hillary challenging another African-American in a Democratic primary? Fat chance.

There ya have it. I think it was really well written and makes a lot of sense.

 

[grandjedi6]

The problem with such early horserace polls, however, is that they are not very accurate predictors of the actual election results. ..... Instead of using early horserace polls, political scientists generally rely on measures of the national political climate to make their forecasts. That is because the national political climate can be measured long before the election and it has been found to exert a powerful influence on the eventual results.

Three indicators of the national political climate have accurately predicted the outcomes of presidential elections since the end of World War II: the incumbent president's approval rating at mid-year, the growth rate of the economy during the second quarter of the election year, and the length of time the president's party has held the White House.

The higher the president's approval rating and the stronger the growth rate of the economy, the more likely it is that the president's party will be victorious. However, if the president's party has controlled the White House for two terms or longer it is less likely to be successful. Time-for-change sentiment seems to increase after eight years regardless of the president's popularity or the state of the economy.

These three factors can be combined to produce an Electoral Barometer score that measures the overall national political climate. The formula for computing this score is simply the president's net approval rating (approval minus disapproval) in the Gallup Poll plus five times the annual growth rate of real GDP minus 25 if the president's party has held the White House for two terms or longer. Mathematically, this formula can be written as:

EB = NAR + (5*GDP) - 25.

In theory, the Electoral Barometer can range from -100 or lower to +100 or higher with a reading of zero indicating a neutral political climate. In practice, Electoral Barometer readings for the fifteen presidential elections since the end of World War II have ranged from -66 in 1980 to +82 in 1964. A positive Electoral Barometer reading generally predicts victory for the incumbent party while a negative reading generally predicts defeat.

The information required to calculate the final Electoral Barometer score for 2008 will not be available until August when the federal government releases its estimate of real GDP growth during the second quarter of 2008. However, it appears very likely that the Republican Party is dealing with the dreaded "triple whammy" in 2008: an unpopular president, a weak economy, and a second term election. Based on President Bush's net approval rating in the most recent Gallup Poll (-39), the annual growth rate of the economy during the first quarter of 2008 (+0.6 percent), and the fact that the Republican Party has controlled the White House for the past eight years, the current Electoral Barometer reading is a dismal -63.

The current national political climate is one of the worst for the party in power since the end of World War II. No candidate running in such an unfavorable political environment – Republican or Democrat - has ever been successful. If John McCain manages to overcome the triple whammy of an unpopular president, a weak economy, and a second term election, it will be an upset of unprecedented magnitude.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=AIA2008052901