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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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W

witness

Member
So could this Jeep lie be the straw that broke the camels back for Romney in Ohio? I mean he's getting called out for this by everyone. This is not some secret only those who eat this shit up know.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Brawndo Addict said:
I realize I'm way late to the game on this one, but I wanted to post about it anyway. I was disappointed that this tweet was largely dismissed as political theater without any basis in reality. It's one thing to know the author's motive was political and that he was probably ignorant of the actual force behind the argument. But many posters dismissed the substance of the argument itself as being asinine and statistically unsound, when in fact it gets to the heart of a fundamental split in statistics. I think this community values knowledge and higher level discourse, we like to learn so to speak, so it was a missed opportunity to separate politics from science.


Statistics is divided into two schools of thought, Bayesians and Frequentists, each with numerous subschools. There are fundamental philosophical differences between the two schools that cannot be reconciled. Some of the major differences are:



Now maybe the implicit assumption is everyone here is a Bayesian, or that we must act as if we are to facilitate discussion. However, I would wager that most people, through no fault of their own, are unaware of this split in what they thought was an uncontroversial and stable field of math. And if you think the split is meaningless or stupid, consider what kind of statistician you would want testifying for the prosecution or defense at a criminal trial. A Bayesian and a Frequentist could come to very different answers given the exact same question. In fact that's exactly what happened during OJ Simpson's trial and the judge was so confused that he decided not to allow either one to testify.

Anyway, just thought it was an interesting and important point about statistics that shouldn't be lost just because a conservative unwittingly brought it up for the purposes of smearing Silver.

ED: Another way to look at the split is in regards to the coin flip.
Click to expand...


Neither the Bayesian or the Frequentist would agree with the tweet that its 50/50 because it's one event. That's why it's stupid.
 
C

Clevinger

Member
markatisu said:
Why is that diablosing? Nobody said the storm was not going to be nasty or cause some issues, to diablos would mean you think the world will end and no voting will take place because people need life boats to get to the democractic polling centers that were specifically hit, thus handing Romney states like NY,PA,DE,and MD
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The bigger, legitimate fear is that it will help Romney win the popular vote, and that it will affect downticket races. Yeah, that won't make him president, but it's still a bad thing.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
markatisu said:
Why is that diablosing? Nobody said the storm was not going to be nasty or cause some issues, to diablos would mean you think the world will end and no voting will take place because people need life boats to get to the democractic polling centers that were specifically hit, thus handing Romney states like NY,PA,DE,and MD
Click to expand...

Yes i think that will now happen
 
A

Anticitizen One

Banned
Obama is showing real leadership at a time of a national crisis. Bill Clinton is stomping in the South on Obama's behalf and Romney and Ryan are nowhere to be found.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
9mNiL.png


Everybody PANIC!
 
B

Brawndo Addict

Banned
Black Mamba said:
Neither the Bayesian or the Frequentist would agree with the tweet that its 50/50 because it's one event. That's why it's stupid.
Click to expand...

Hmm, I think I was looking at the wrong tweet then. The one I saw had nothing in it about 50/50 chances, it was just asking whether the critiques about Silver were based on probability problems relating to one-off events. Perhaps this was a follow up tweet to the one you mentioned.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
eBay Huckster said:
little do we know that they will intentionally let the subway system fill with water to bring the top of the ESB back above sea level to rescue everyone in NYC.
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Actually NYC subway was flooded in 2007 too. They have installed grates directly linked to the sewers inside the subway since then. Wonder if that will work.
 
E

Effect

Member
Romney should not be doing this. No matter what he says it's going come of as a slimy opportunist when he should be sitting in a corner keeping his mouth shut.

Edit: On second thought he should be doing this. Let him get slammed for taking advantage of a national crisis for personal gain.
 
RiccochetJ

RiccochetJ

Gold Member
Hmm, I'm not entirely against the idea of a privatized response team. It could be by a termed exclusive contract with a huge amount of oversight and severe repercussions.

Of course there would have to be emergency contingencies in place.

I need to reiterate that this would have to be an extremely strict contract. No fucking around when it comes to this.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
witness said:
So could this Jeep lie be the straw that broke the camels back for Romney in Ohio? I mean he's getting called out for this by everyone. This is not some secret only those who eat this shit up know.
Click to expand...
I don't know but its not playing well at all.

He has made things worse.
 
M

Mike M

Nick N
Guys, the east coast will be to busy dealing with the storm and its aftermath, we need the good people of Ohio to relieve them... Or something...
 
J

jbug617

Banned
Effect said:
Romney should not be doing this. No matter what he says it's going come of as a slimy opportunist when he should be sitting in a corner keeping his mouth shut.

Edit: On second thought he should be doing this. Let him get slammed for taking advantage of a national crisis for personal gain.
Click to expand...

It would be hard for Obama to call him out on it. Basically the cover of a relief event would make it hard to be attacked unless he decides to speak while he is there and basically campaign at the event.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
RiccochetJ said:
Hmm, I'm not entirely against the idea of a privatized response team. It could be by a termed exclusive contract with a huge amount of oversight and severe repercussions.

Of course there would have to be emergency contingencies in place.

I need to reiterate that this would have to be an extremely strict contract. No fucking around when it comes to this.
Click to expand...

No way, any company that tries to get a profit has no place in emergency response. Absolutely no place, at all.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
At a time when the Governors, Mayors, county members of different political stripe are working in tandem with the President to manage the disaster and provide relief efforts in the best possible way, Romney is being a little partisan bitch and attacking the President. I hope this blows up in his face.
 
RiccochetJ

RiccochetJ

Gold Member
B-Dubs said:
No way, any company that tries to get a profit has no place in emergency response. Absolutely no place, at all.
Click to expand...

If they have to adhere to a unbelievably strict set of rules and can do the same quality of job for less money than we're currently spending while still making a profit?
 
E

el retorno

Member
RustyNails said:
At a time when the Governors, Mayors, county members of different political stripe are working in tandem with the President to manage the disaster and provide relief efforts in the best possible way, Romney is being a little partisan bitch and attacking the President. I hope this blows up in his face.
Click to expand...

Where is he attacking the President?
 
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