The Librarian
Banned
I figure that's less from insight and more that you're always negative about everything and PD likes to be contrary to PoliGAF when it comes to Romney.
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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
- Thread starter RustyNails
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Ah, makes sense.
That didn't take long.
DietRob
i've been begging for over 5 years.
I wrote in myself instead of voting for Boehner. I live a block away from his local headquarters I've met him. I literally bumped into him a year or so before he became Speaker. He was a dick about it asking me if I knew who he was. At the time I didn't.
Now we all know him as the crybaby of the Hill.
Now we all know him as the crybaby of the Hill.
Officerrob
Banned
So this basically comes down to Romney's advisors saying, "Fuck it, we are losing Ohio and we can't afford to waste a day"
He's wasting his time. He's going to lose Ohio no matter what he does.
So....a storm relief event in Ohio? Is that what the children do while the adults have to deal with the actual disaster?
gutter_trash
Banned
them other states are too blue and too democrat for relief events, go to the least hit one
RiccochetJ
Gold Member
What layers? That bureaucracy exists now. It can be shrunk in fact. Now you're following a private contractor. Now you only have regulators that have to be highly trained and are highly scrutinized on the gov payroll.
And what's all this about profit? If they bid the contract correctly, then they'll make a profit. If not, then they'll take a bath. That's on them. Sometimes you lose money on a bid.
I need to remind you that I said that there needs to be severe repercussions for not being able to fulfill the contract. If you're bidding, then you need to take into account catastrophic incidents.
Might as well say he's wasting his time running for President then (which I wouldn't argue against).
No, there is no such law of averages. Each PhoenixDark prediction is an independent trial.
Each poll is a sample proportion. We don't know what percentage of the actual voting population will vote for Obama, but we try to infer it via samples. Even with large sample sizes, there's a bit of variance between individual polls, but when we take the aggregate of polls, their distribution approaches a Normal model (basically a bell-shaped curve). The more polls, and the greater the sample sizes, the lower the variance. But even with highly accurate polls, we can't say with certainty what the true mean (% of voting population voting Obama) actually is. All we can say is that we are xx% certain that the true mean is within a certain interval. Because the race is so close, it is possible that Obama's true mean in multiple swing states is <.50 and Romney's true mean in those states is >.50, but it's highly unlikely.
No one would ever bid this. This is classic time and materials work, too much volatility for anyone to bid it as lump sum. At least, not without charging a MASSIVE mark up to CYA.
By massive mark up I mean multiples more than what is initially expected to be needed, and even then the provision for change orders would be demanded if the scope goes too far out of the original bounds.
In other words, you'd be creating a lose/lose scenario for the gov't. Either the job stays more or less within scope and the private contractor makes a killing thanks to a fat number or the job goes way out of scope and the gov't. gets change ordered to death like it was a T&M job but with the initial overbid effectively turning into a "bonus".
Another problem: Almost no companies exist that can handle this kind of work, and those companies don't spring up overnight. There is a reason why Halliburton milks gov't. contracts so profoundly, because in a lot of cases they're the only company that truly has the supply lines and corporate resources to do a job. They know this, and they make the most of it. Hell, they're so damn big you literally can't build a TON of shit in their sector to code without buying Halliburton products.
Same with Jacobs responding to the vast majority of post-Katrina clean up. They knew they had a blank check and took full advantage.
The Librarian
Banned
Ha.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
lol is there anything that Romney hasn't basically distorted and lied about?
Key part of this is "on the gov payroll." You're not shrinking anything, though, with regard to the entire job. That's what I'm talking about.
To parse it out a company has the people actually doing the grunt work, then managers and other people to make sure that what they're doing is up to whatever quality the company wants it to be. On top of this stuff they'll then have to answer to people in the government making sure things are up to code. On top of that, then, not doing anything you have the owner(s) siphoning money off the top.
To do things more efficient you can combine the two "managerial" roles of making sure everything is up to snuff within the company and up to regulations by just having the government do both. They then get the grunt work done, too. And on top of that, then, the owners are the tax payers, and they're not trying to extract a profit on it.
The system of government doing it can theoretically be more efficient.
So, your system is relying on the private sector fucking up and making a bad bid on a contract? They're really not going to do that too often. They're going to make a profit. They're not doing this shit for free.
But most of this is abstract and kind of beside the point in the example we're talking about. Have you responded to that other post that I put into my reply?
RustyNails
Member
Obama's Katrina? Obama's Katrina.
Obama? Fecklessly staying at home to count his polls.
reminds me of when a certain someone suspended their campaign that one time.
i'm looking at you, tabris.
Haha.. maybe I should start introducing myself as "NeoGAF's HylianTom." Kinda like "TV's Frank."
...? Are you talking about the gaffer, tabris?
eBay Huckster
Member
looks like my irradiated wasteland prediction could come true
VanMardigan
has calmed down a bit.
If there's a second tabris out there, we're all screwed.
I'm actually a bit scared right now.
yes. i was just thinking up a random name of someone who doesn't usually show up here.
I hope this backfires on him so hard.
Black Mamba
Member
The media needs to bring this up full force tomorrow. But they won't.
It's up to them to get this info out there.
RiccochetJ
Gold Member
Hmm, you make a good point. How does someone create a business catered to this for just such an issue? There has to be a huge influx of cash from somewhere to start this whole thing up.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Given his plans in Ohio tomorrow, sounds like he's getting started with this early.
The fact that Romney of all people has been able to bring the national numbers so close is a sign to me that: a) much of the populous literally doesn't care about reality or the truth b) journalists have done a fantastic job with the horse race narrative c) Fox News and other conservative news sources are incredible good at swaying public opinion against Obama and the Democratic party.
Hahaha, funny part is Tabris is Canadian.
Anton Sugar
Member
Is this accurate? Obamacare will increase WI insurance premiums by 30%?
No, that was the BP oil spill.
RiccochetJ
Gold Member
Everyone is dumb except you.
Considering it was written by a Romney adviser I highly doubt it.
Its done by a Romney advisor............ Id take it with a grain of salt.
I'll let you take a guess..
Next up, Romney's gonna have a press rally at a funeral for the hurricane victims.
Sounds like an exciting opportunity for a successful, capital rich entrepreneur with a lot of time on his hands after a failed presidential bid.
http://neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=43759102&postcount=5635 Obama's Katrina?
And don't forget:
d) voters in the South really, really hate Obama, and their lopsided regional numbers are skewing national numbers (as has been demonstrated multiple times by multiple polling outfits).
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