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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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C

coldfoot

Banned
teruterubozu said:
Well, your premise is that US workers suck balls, so I guess that's all that can be said about that and no need to go further.
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They don't suck balls, they just have very high expectations for compensation for the amount and type of work that they are doing. I'm sure that some of that is caused by excessive regulation and unions as well. Another reason is that since the USA is not a homogenized nation like many other countries, people just dont care much about anything other than their paycheck.
 
M

Mgoblue201

Won't stop picking the right nation
Dax01 said:
e1ow2.png
Click to expand...
That's one reason why I don't think the "systemic polling bias" favoring Obama is going to transpire. Early voting points to a somewhat tight race, but not anything that is too comforting for Romney.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Mgoblue201 said:
That's one reason why I don't think the "systemic polling bias" favoring Obama is going to transpire. Early voting points to a somewhat tight race, but not anything that is too comforting for Romney.
Click to expand...

IA and NV is still good. CO, FL has a sharp drop. OH seems to be same.

Then all that is left is WI
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
giga said:
3DoR+
Click to expand...

This tweet needs to be unskewed. I can't trust all this factual math.

Statistics? Something the liberals invented in the 80s.

So happy this election is most likely over with on Tuesday night. The commercials get worse every election season.
 
C

codhand

Member
NBC’s Meet the Press: White House Senior Adviser and architect of President Obama’s 2008 campaign, David Plouffe and House Majority Leader and representative from key battleground state Virginia, Rep. Eric Cantor (R). Roundtable: Mayor Cory Booker (D-Newark); MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough; GOP strategist Mike Murphy; TODAY co-host Savannah Guthrie; and NBC Special Correspondent, Tom Brokaw.
Click to expand...

AROD-EATS-IT.gif
Click to expand...
.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
I thought it seemed unusually early when I woke up... the clocks got turned back an hour

damn you internal alarm clock waking me up against my will :(
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Pretty much back up to where we were pre-Denver, amazing.

And time for the punditry spinarama on Meet The Press! *blech*
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
Politico national poll is tied at 48 but this was interesting and proves what many have been saying all along

Independents are now split evenly, with Obama up 44 to 43 percent. A week ago, Romney had a 10-point advantage among this key demographic. The ranks of independents shrunk partly because more right-leaning voters now supporting Romney identified with the Republican Party.
Click to expand...
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
syllogism said:
Final NBC/WSJ poll 48-47 O

D+2 sample
Click to expand...

ho ho ho

it's amazing how the national polls have now become completely consistent with what we've been seeing in the battlegrounds now

the magnitude of confusion on election day if Obama loses would be so great I don't even think it's possible for me to imagine
 
B

bananas

Banned
On Meet the Press:
NBC's poll:
O 48%
R 47% (lol)

Bush led Kerry by the same margins the Sunday before election.

Obama's handling of Sandy:
~67% Approve
~16% Disapprove
(Sorry, can't remember exact numbers)

Biggest approval for a single event in Obama's presidency, since Osama bin Laden.
 
T

TacticalFox88

Banned
bananas said:
On Meet the Press:
NBC's poll:
O 48%
R 47% (lol)

Bush led Kerry by the same margins the Sunday before election.

Obama's handling of Sandy:
~67% Approve
~16% Disapprove
(Sorry, can't remember exact numbers)

Biggest approval for a single event in Obama's presidency, since Osama bin Laden.
Click to expand...

Boom.
 
R

reggieandTFE

Member
coldfoot said:
You obviously missed the part when I excluded people who are smart enough to start or run their own businesses. I am only talking about people who receive a salary. You are an asshole btw for calling me the same without properly reading.
Click to expand...

No, the absurd, completely-disconnected-from -the-real-world policies you are advocating make you an asshole.
 
C

Chumly

Member
Im sorry but this trolling shit is getting old. If he is serious I find it sad and pathetic that he actually believes the bullshit he is spewing.
 
M

Measley

Junior Member
Rob Portman on State of the Union saying the economy in Ohio is terrible and all the polls are moving in Romney's direction. Gotta love it.
 
G

Giant Panda

Member
Slime said:
So it's looking like it'll be either 290 or 303, based on how conservative you want to be with VA (or, uhh, RCP vs. 538).

Hope it's like 2008 and we get a surprise like IN. I still think Sam Wang is going to be wrong about FL, but it would be nice if he wasn't.
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That doesn't take into account how skewed the those liberal electoral votes are. All the EVs Obama gets will have oversampled Dems. They may come out as 290 O initially but the real results will probably be 280ish R.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Gawd, this MTP round table is as bad as you'd think. Who needs things like data when you can talk about stupid shit like enthusiasm and crowd sizes, Jesus Christ.
 
R

Rocket Scientist

Member
I think Anihawk made a good post about which states could be called at what point, but is there an ''official'' list of when certain states were called in 2008?
 
T

Trurl

Banned
Arksy said:
Why do you folks in the US give the Presidential election such undue weight? The election of the members of congress are far more important. After all it's congress that makes the law, and sets the budget and decides in broad terms what the president can and can not do. I hear so much talk about the Presidential election yet I barely hear anything about the congressional elections. Why is that?
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Because Americans like to vote for the person and get into the personalities of the people they end up voting for. Presidential candidates end up becoming celebrities by the time the election happen while people running for congress are faceless as far as the general public is concerned.

It's stupid.

Also, in a way that might be related, I think Americans at large fail to realize the importance of Congress. You wold think the fact that in Obama's first two years he passed healthcare reform, saved the economy from utter ruin (he did just enough leave us in moderate ruin, but by today's standards that's not too bad), and ended Don't Ask, Don't Tell while n his last two years he has accomplished close to squat and has had to deal with near constant threats to US solvency created by the GOP in Congress would help people realize just how important Congress is.
 
I

Incognito

Troll
Is how I would describe the analysis on the MTP panel this morning. Just good stuff, all around. Glad to see Mike Murphy kind enough to impart some of his wisdom to the neophytes on the panel, Booker and Guthrie. He's always been sort of a bellwether on twitter.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
lol, Chuck Fraud actually doing the electoral math and looking at that OH/WI/IA firewall, Romney is fucked. Again months behind.
 
M

Mgoblue201

Won't stop picking the right nation
Some commentators will (and already did) blame Sandy for stopping Mitt's momentum, which he didn't even have to begin with, but the polls indicate that people are actually approving of the way in which Obama is handling the situation. Of course, few people are going to give Obama credit for that. Republicans will instead blame their loss on an act of God (who was supposed to be on their side, ironically).
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
EV update

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

Colorado:

Party Reg
Dem 34.6%
Rep 36.9%
None/Oth 28.5%


2008:
Party
Dem 37.7%
Rep 35.9%
No/Oth 26.4%

The big reason for the Dem drop seems to be GOP turnout is higher in Arapahoe county that went for Obama 55-43 in 2008. EV numbers have it going for Romney right now. Same is happening in Jefferson county and Larimer county. While Dems are still ahead in Boulder, Denver and Adams.

In 2008, Dem base was more solidified around Obama (92%) than GOP (85%). I don't think we will see that in 2012. In the end, if Obama wins the independent vote by 2-3 points in CO, he will win CO.
 
C

C.Dark.DN

Banned
Arksy said:
Why do you folks in the US give the Presidential election such undue weight? The election of the members of congress are far more important. After all it's congress that makes the law, and sets the budget and decides in broad terms what the president can and can not do. I hear so much talk about the Presidential election yet I barely hear anything about the congressional elections. Why is that?
Click to expand...
We/We're watching it:
http://www.rollcall.com/politics/2012_race_rating_map.html
But how do you propose we discuss 435 congress races?

Yeah so I really hope Austin Scott doesn't win Georgia's 8th district.... oh wait no one is running against him... whoever he is.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
1.6 million have voted early in OH already.
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Well crap, my numbers are crap. Apparently 1,600,000 in Ohio voted early in 2008.
edit: and more than 1.6 million have voted there already. Looks like Ohio's outpacing 2008, actually.


(BTW.. this morning's article looks like a very Hopium-laced summary of early voting nationwide thus far..)
Obama seems to have early vote lead in key states
http://www.kctv5.com/story/19992404/obama-seems-to-have-early-voter-lead-in-key-states
 
N

norinrad

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
EV update

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

Colorado:

Party Reg
Dem 34.6%
Rep 36.9%
None/Oth 28.5%


2008:
Party
Dem 37.7%
Rep 35.9%
No/Oth 26.4%

The big reason for the Dem drop seems to be GOP turnout is higher in Arapahoe county that went for Obama 55-43 in 2008. EV numbers have it going for Romney right now. Same is happening in Jefferson county and Larimer county. While Dems are still ahead in Boulder, Denver and Adams.

In 2008, Dem base was more solidified around Obama (92%) than GOP (85%). I don't think we will see that in 2012. In the end, if Obama wins the independent vote by 2-3 points in CO, he will win CO.
Click to expand...

Barry is totally screwed, he may as well start giving lectures and publishing articles. He's the Carter of this generation. Much as the electric cars were held back, so will the flying cars in the name of big oil
 
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