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[The Lamonster]

Cannot wait for this election to be over...I think the stress over a possible Romney win has been making me lose sleep.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Except the tracker's first results were monday, so it had friday, saturday, & sunday in it. And had Obama up 1. It wasn't till tuesday till Romney was up. And was up again today. Weekend numbers cycled out and Romney's numbers improved ever so slightly. I am not sure how you can declare the weekend was good for Romney in ABC when the tracker only first started Monday.

Black Mamba is always wrong when analyzing shifts in daily trackers

One poll doesn't negate Obama's gains today; besides, it's a 1 point difference and national polls aren't that important. However I am interested in Gallup tomorrow, and whether we find out today was just statistical (loud) noise.

 

[Loudninja]

Black Mamba is always wrong when analyzing shifts in daily trackers

One poll doesn't negate Obama's gains today; besides, it's a 1 point difference and national polls aren't that important. However I am interested in Gallup tomorrow, and whether we find out today was just statistical (loud) noise.

The irony of you saying someone is always wrong on a subject.

 

[Kinvara]

Cannot wait for this election to be over...I think the stress over a possible Romney win has been making me lose sleep.

Same here. :/

 

[Black Mamba]

Except the tracker's first results were monday, so it had friday, saturday, & sunday in it. And had Obama up 1. It wasn't till tuesday till Romney was up. And was up again today. Weekend numbers cycled out and Romney's numbers improved ever so slightly. I am not sure how you can declare the weekend was good for Romney in ABC when the tracker only first started Monday.

These numbers are Oct 20-23. Monday's tracker included the previous 4 days. Since every other tracker was favorable to Mitt on the weekend, I'm making an educated guess here that so too was ABC which is why Mitt went up on Tuesday and now today.

Black Mamba is always wrong when analyzing shifts in daily trackers

One poll doesn't negate Obama's gains today; besides, it's a 1 point difference and national polls aren't that important. However I am interested in Gallup tomorrow, and whether we find out today was just statistical (loud) noise.

Except I called RAND almost with 100% accuracy for like 5 straight days.

Not sure what you mean about one poll doesn't negate Obama's gains unless you mean in state polling.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

The irony of you saying someone is always wrong on a subject.

It's about as ironic as Romney calling Obama out for being a flip-flopper.

 

[Cheebo]

You gotta admit its weird declaring off hand ABC had good numbers for romney over the weekend is a bit nuts when this tracker is only 3 days old. We never had any numbers before monday. There is no way to gauge at all which nights had what results other than there was a very slight bump from monday to tuesday that held today despite post-debate numbers cycling in.

These numbers are Oct 20-23. Monday's tracker included the previous 4 days. Since every other tracker was favorable to Mitt on the weekend, I'm making an educated guess here that so too was ABC which is why Mitt went up on Tuesday and now today.




Except I called RAND almost with 100% accuracy for like 5 straight days.

Almost none of the other trackers do live polling like ABC, it's hard to match them up, this is the only one getting big time network funding. And likely don't use the same LV models at all. You can't paste their daily numbers into ABC's. We started fresh with monday for ABC.

 

[Lambtron]

Romney surging

The Comeback Kid.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Same here. :/

As if the normal stress isn't enough, now I have to finish this OUAC law school application before the 1st (when all of the schools using LSAC have deadlines in March at the earliest)

 

[RustyNails]

You gotta admit its weird declaring off hand ABC had good numbers for romney over the weekend is a bit nuts when this tracker is only 3 days old. We never had any numbers before monday. There is no way to gauge at all which nights had what results other than there was a very slight bump from monday to tuesday that held today despite post-debate numbers cycling in.

The Post-ABC tracking poll is a series of consecutive one-night “waves” of interviews reported as a rolling, multi-night average. The new results are for interviews conducted Oct. 19-22, among a random sample of 1,382 likely voters.

Please go away, you fear merchant

 

[Loudninja]

Haha

Romney: Debates ‘diminished’ Obama

"He's now been reduced to talking about Sesame Street characters and word games and misplaced attacks on me," Romney told a crowd of roughly 2,500 people here.
The GOP nominee said Obama had "four debates"—including the vice presidential debate—to "lay out" a plan for the future but failed to do so.

"You can boil down what he's saying to four simple words: 'more of the same,'" said Romney.

For months, Romney has mocked Obama's campaign slogan ("Forward"), telling audiences it should have been "forewarned" instead. Today he revised that attack, telling the crowd Obama's plan "doesn't feel like forward. It feels like backwards."

As he has in recent weeks, Romney expressed confidence he'll win the election, telling the crowd here he understands how to jumpstart the struggling economy and "that's why I'm going to win."

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/romney-debates-diminished-obama-193927721--election.html

 

[Black Mamba]

You gotta admit its weird declaring off hand ABC had good numbers for romney over the weekend is a bit nuts when this tracker is only 3 days old. We never had any numbers before monday. There is no way to gauge at all which nights had what results other than there was a very slight bump from monday to tuesday that held today despite post-debate numbers cycling in.



Almost none of the other trackers do live polling like ABC, it's hard to match them up, this is the only one getting big time network funding. And likely don't use the same LV models at all. You can't paste their daily numbers into ABC's. We started fresh with monday for ABC.

I think trends matter and everyone with 3-5 days trackers showed Obama gaining mid week and losing during the weekend. As did RAND which is 7 days but more stable so movement is more obvious. I'd imagine ABC would show the same thing.

ABC's monday was the previous 4 days...

 

[Forever]

 

[Eidan]

I just don't understand why the GOP seems to be so awful when it comes to the ground game. They seem too reliant on big donor/corporate support, to the point where it seems like they think they don't even need to reach out to actual people.

 

[The Librarian]

Guys, please don't fight over who's more accurate in predicting the noise of tracking polls.

 

[Oblivion]

Guys, in honor of Scorcho's untimely departing, I think Poligaf should stand in solidarity by having has avatar as our own.

 

[Angry Grimace]

That Romney speech just reminds me of how awkward his attempts to insert personal anecdotes were since he could barely even remember anything about the peons he'd met on the campaign trail

 

[CaptainSchwann]

So does anyone else think if Obama wins this that it sets up the Democratic party to be unstoppable 2016 and afterwards? Think about this: If Obama ends a second term in good standing (better economy, more jobs, etc.) then the Dem 2016 candidate will have TWO very favorable past presidents to campaign for them. Bill and Obama could be a serious ace campaign wise.

 

[jmls1121]

I just don't understand why the GOP seems to be so awful when it comes to the ground game. They seem too reliant on big donor/corporate support, to the point where it seems like they think they don't even need to reach out to actual people.

There are simply not enough college republicans to do the dirty work that is necessary for the ground game.

 

[Loudninja]

I find it odd that Romney keeps complaining about getting attack.

 

[jmls1121]

I find it odd that Romney keeps complaining about getting attack.

Romney is kind of a big pussy.

 

[Cloudy]

http://jimromenesko.com/2012/10/24/...-to-endorse-in-presidential-and-senate-races/

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel — Wisconsin’s largest and most influential news organization — won’t be endorsing in the very tight presidential and races this year.

They obviously don't want to piss off Ryan fans in case he wins. Lame

 

[Brinbe]

I find it odd that Romney keeps complaining about getting attack.

He wants to appear moderate and above petty attacks

So does anyone else think if Obama wins this that it sets up the Democratic party to be unstoppable 2016 and afterwards? Think about this: If Obama ends a second term in good standing (better economy, more jobs, etc.) then the Dem 2016 candidate will have TWO very favorable past presidents to campaign for them. Bill and Obama could be a serious ace campaign wise.

There are no absolutes in politics, but the demographics are certainly in their favor. And Hilary, if she's a go, is probably a prohibitive fav to win.

 

[Fragamemnon]

I just don't understand why the GOP seems to be so awful when it comes to the ground game. They seem too reliant on big donor/corporate support, to the point where it seems like they think they don't even need to reach out to actual people.

It doesn't fit their decades-old model of direct mail patronage, with their mass entrenched consultancies. There's a strong politico establishment and rot in the GOP electoral machine that works well in low-turnout elections but is pretty horrific compared to the kind of game Obama is playing.

 

[Loudninja]

Romney is kind of a big pussy.

He wants to appear moderate and above petty attacks

Its pretty annoying when that all he does now.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Obama has 152,084 people early voting in localities he won last election

Romney has 95,744 people early voting in localities Obama lost last election

Bad news for Obama.

Virginia should be an epicenter of the GOTV machine for Obama, given the demographics and college campuses. It certainly is bad news that OFA seemingly isn't as effective (apparently) there as they are in some other states...

 

[Bowdz]

Romney is kind of a big pussy.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Nate just posted a big ol' Thing about election prediction markets.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

'It began prior to the second debate when Obama -feeling the pressure like never before- was unable to sleep. His phone vibrated and upon picking it up he saw it was Hillary. Trying to not awaken his lovely wife Michelle from her precious sleep, he took the phone into the Oval Office.

'Hello Hillary, how did you know I was still awake?'
'Mr.President, I know the pressures that a man in your position has, for I saw it in Bill for those 8 difficult years. I just wanted to let you know that I am available for you in any way I can be.'
'Hillary, that means the world to me. Michelle, she simply doesn't appreciate the weight that I carry upon my shoulders day in and day out. It's comforting to know that I have you by my side. I am just sitting here in the Oval Office trying to prepare for tomorrows debate. I have to say that I am quite nervous.'
'Mr.President, I fully understand. I have a confession to make... I...'
'Hillary? Are you ok?'
'Yes Mr.President, I am... I just am thinking of what my husband did in the very room that you are currently in... and I don't know...'
'Hillary, I am not sure I understand...'
'Mr.President, I have always been jealous of Ms.Lewinsky, that she was able to make my husband feel a way that I wasn't able to produce...'
'Hillary, I am not sure that we should be having this conversation... for I am a married man...'
'Mr.President, I want to be your Ms.Lewinsky, if only for one night...'
'Hillary...'

To be continued

 

[Dude Abides]

I find it odd that Romney keeps complaining about getting attack.

What'd he whine about today?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Virginia should be an epicenter of the GOTV machine for Obama, given the demographics and college campuses. It certainly is bad news that OFA seemingly isn't as effective (apparently) there as they are in some other states...

Once again, VA doesn't have no excuse early voting

 

[Bowdz]

'It began prior to the second debate when Obama -feeling the pressure like never before- was unable to sleep. His phone vibrated and upon picking it up he saw it was Hillary. Trying to not awaken his lovely wife Michelle from her precious sleep, he took the phone into the Oval Office.

'Hello Hillary, how did you know I was still awake?'
'Mr.President, I know the pressures that a man in your position has, for I saw it in Bill for those 8 difficult years. I just wanted to let you know that I am available for you in any way I can be.'
'Hillary, that means the world to me. Michelle, she simply doesn't appreciate the weight that I carry upon my shoulders day in and day out. It's comforting to know that I have you by my side. I am just sitting here in the Oval Office trying to prepare for tomorrows debate. I have to say that I am quite nervous.'
'Mr.President, I fully understand. I have a confession to make... I...'
'Hillary? Are you ok?'
'Yes Mr.President, I am... I just am thinking of what my husband did in the very room that you are currently in... and I don't know...'
'Hillary, I am not sure I understand...'
'Mr.President, I have always been jealous of Ms.Lewinsky, that she was able to make my husband feel a way that I wasn't able to produce...'
'Hillary, I am not sure that we should be having this conversation... for I am a married man...'
'Mr.President, I want to be your Ms.Lewinsky, if only for one night...'
'Hillary...'

To be continued

 

[JCizzle]

I just don't understand why the GOP seems to be so awful when it comes to the ground game. They seem too reliant on big donor/corporate support, to the point where it seems like they think they don't even need to reach out to actual people.

Are they though? The GOP seems to outperform when it comes to local and state races, and obviously did incredibly well in 2010 when the Dems didn't seem to have much of anything going for them without Obama on a ticket as a draw. It's great Dems come out for POTUS, disappointing they can be MIA during the less hyped elections.

 

[GameplayWhore]

So does anyone else think if Obama wins this that it sets up the Democratic party to be unstoppable 2016 and afterwards? Think about this: If Obama ends a second term in good standing (better economy, more jobs, etc.) then the Dem 2016 candidate will have TWO very favorable past presidents to campaign for them. Bill and Obama could be a serious ace campaign wise.

It's seemed pretty obvious to me that whichever party gains Presidency next month will benefit strongly four years from now due to the recovery.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Among political independents, 49 percent say Romney is the one who is more empathetic with ongoing economic woes; 45 percent say Obama is more in tune. That’s not a statistically significant advantage for the challenger, but does represent a directional shift from before the first debate.

Looking at handling the economy as a broad issue, Romney’s lead among independents has swelled to 56 to 39 percent in the new poll, an advantage that helps him to a sizable, 12-point lead over Obama when it comes to their voting preferences. Obama won independent and other voters by eight percentage points in 2008.

Across all three debates, 40 percent of independents say their impressions of Romney improved; fewer than half as many, 18 percent, say their views deteriorated. Twice as many independents say their views of Obama are worse as say better, 20 percent to 10 percent.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...ma-wins-final-debate-romney-gains-supporters/

ouch

 

[Chumly]

I find it odd that Romney keeps complaining about getting attack.

Romney complains about getting attacked then turns around and slams the president (usually with a bunch of lies)

 

[Bowdz]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...ma-wins-final-debate-romney-gains-supporters/

ouch

Not like this ... not like this ...

 

[Angry Grimace]

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m7xebfYnUD1qzs5cqo1_500.jpg[mg][/QUOTE]
For a second I thought it was a picture of Bush Sr.

 

[Loudninja]

What'd he whine about today?

"He's now been reduced to talking about Sesame Street characters and word games and misplaced attacks on me," Romney told a crowd of roughly 2,500 people here.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/romney-debates-diminished-obama-193927721--election.html

Btw where was he? That seems like a very small crowd.

 

[Salvadora]

Bad news for Obama.

 

[Aaron Strife]

At the risk of dooming the Democrats' chances, I'm feeling good.

Democrats could very well hold every Senate seat except for Nebraska while picking up Maine (big King lead), Mass (decent Warren lead), Nevada (tied race in polls + likely understating Dem margin = Reid-style victory), Indiana (Mourdock's big mouth isn't doing him any favors) and Arizona (Carmona showing surprising strength in the polls). This adds up to 57 seats.

motherofgod.gif

 

[Dude Abides]

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/romney-debates-diminished-obama-193927721--election.html

This has been the GOP talking point for a while - Obama can't run on his record so he'll attack Mitt - so it makes sense they'd stick with it. The Sesame Street things is a bit stale to still be whining about, though, especially after the ad was pulled.

 

[Angry Grimace]

Bad news for Obama.

Seems like Rass and Gallup are disproportionately affecting the results of that. In any case, its all in the margin of error

 

[Jarmel]

Bad news for Obama.

Wow that's all over the place.

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

These national polls are annoying me. State polls matter more, and although I'm not following this election closely, I do know Obama is up in Ohio.

 

[Bowdz]

At the risk of dooming the Democrats' chances, I'm feeling good.

Democrats could very well hold every Senate seat except for Nebraska while picking up Maine (big King lead), Mass (decent Warren lead), Nevada (tied race in polls + likely understating Dem margin = Reid-style victory), Indiana (Mourdock's big mouth isn't doing him any favors) and Arizona (Carmona showing surprising strength in the polls). This adds up to 57 seats.

motherofgod.gif

My dream night right there. If Obama got reelected, I don't think there could be a better message sent to the GOP that their policies and obstructionism in the Senate is unacceptable if Dems actually pick up seats (and also prime them for 2014 pick ups).

 

[-PXG-]

Romney is kind of a big pussy.

What do you mean, kind of? He is. I bitched in the primaries and he bitched Monday night, twice. He's in the wrong line of work if he doesn't like people talking shit about him.

 

[ClassyPenguin]

'It began prior to the second debate when Obama -feeling the pressure like never before- was unable to sleep. His phone vibrated and upon picking it up he saw it was Hillary. Trying to not awaken his lovely wife Michelle from her precious sleep, he took the phone into the Oval Office.

'Hello Hillary, how did you know I was still awake?'
'Mr.President, I know the pressures that a man in your position has, for I saw it in Bill for those 8 difficult years. I just wanted to let you know that I am available for you in any way I can be.'
'Hillary, that means the world to me. Michelle, she simply doesn't appreciate the weight that I carry upon my shoulders day in and day out. It's comforting to know that I have you by my side. I am just sitting here in the Oval Office trying to prepare for tomorrows debate. I have to say that I am quite nervous.'
'Mr.President, I fully understand. I have a confession to make... I...'
'Hillary? Are you ok?'
'Yes Mr.President, I am... I just am thinking of what my husband did in the very room that you are currently in... and I don't know...'
'Hillary, I am not sure I understand...'
'Mr.President, I have always been jealous of Ms.Lewinsky, that she was able to make my husband feel a way that I wasn't able to produce...'
'Hillary, I am not sure that we should be having this conversation... for I am a married man...'
'Mr.President, I want to be your Ms.Lewinsky, if only for one night...'
'Hillary...'

To be continued

 

[Loudninja]

This has been the GOP talking point for a while - Obama can't run on his record so he'll attack Mitt - so it makes sense they'd stick with it. The Sesame Street things is a bit stale to still be whining about, though, especially after the ad was pulled.

Its funny to see him whine about something he brought up.

 

[thecouncil]

Erin Burnett was on Conan last night. Conan was talking about the CNN debate dial tracker:

Here's what I've noticed: They tend to go up when the candidate starts to speak and then when the candidate stops, they slope down. Then when they speak again, it goes up. And all we're doing is measuring people's ability to tell when someone's talking.

ha.