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[Men_in_Boxes]

The premise of this thread is to gauge NeoGAFs ability to predict the market trend of one of the most fascinating genres in all of gaming...the Extraction Shooter. This thread will act as a time capsule, to be unearthed on Tuesday, December 17th, 2026.

WHERE IS THE GENRE TODAY?

Today, there are 3 titles that comprise the bulk of the Extraction Shooter market. Escape from Tarkov, Hunt Showdown, and Dark and Darker.

Escape from Tarkov - (e) 50k average CCU on game launcher
Hunt: Showdown - 12k average CCU on Steam, (e) 8k average CCU on console
Dark and Darker - 9k average CCU on Steam

Total - (e) 80k average CCU across PC and console playing the Extraction genre.

There are a number of smaller Extraction Shooters like Sulfur, The Forever Winter, and Grey Zone Warfare, but their players are too small to make much of a difference.

WHERE WILL THE GENRE BE IN TWO YEARS? (December 2026)

There's a number of high profile Extraction games that are likely to be released over the next two years. Those include Marathon, ARC Raiders, PUBG Black Budget, Fortnite Arnold, Far Cry Maverick, Exobourne, Hunger, Beautiful Light...


Now I've already put a reminder in my phone to bump this thread in two years so we can review the tape. However, there's a chance I get hit by a bus in that time frame so it wouldn't hurt for a fellow nerd to do the same. Votes are publicly displayed. Choose wisely.

If anyone is interested in a pretty well done video essay on the genre, this is the best I've found...

 

[clarky]

LOL

 

[jshackles]

LOL

 

[GHG]

Dead hopefully.

 

[Big Baller]

Worst poster of the year

 

[rm082e]

It seems like no one has been able to really nail it yet. At this point, I have my doubts that the genre has much potential for big growth. It seems niche by nature. I get that every company wants to take this genre, slap a battle pass on it and have their next Fortnite or Apex, but that's just not going to happen.

 

[TintoConCasera]

Dude I don't even know where I'll be by late 2026.

 

[Hrk69]

 

[Meicyn]

Dark zone in The Division was neat. Dark zone being split into three small areas in Division 2 was a terrible decision. Thankfully the devs realized their mistake and are planning accordingly for Division 3.

I can get my fill of extraction mechanics in those games when I get that temporary itch for PvPvE, and go back to standard PvE which I prefer. I think extraction as a dedicated game mode is a dead end in terms of mainstream appeal. This is because most gamers are casual and extraction mechanics are for folks who have a lot more free time and aren’t as bothered when all the sweaty gear collecting progress they made is erased in a split moment. Battle royale is low stakes pick up and play by comparison.

 

[Sethbacca]

I don't even know a single person that plays any extraction shooters now.

 

[Reizo Ryuu]

men in boxes thread

 

[Generic]

I want Marathon to become a success.

 

[Ristifer]

Should try to predict who will give a shit instead.

 

[March Climber]

I do think a future title will do double the number of Tarkov. Whether or not that game is Marathon remains to be seen.

Personally though I like extraction games that remove the PvP aspect or at least make it optional. I prefer the level and enemies themselves to provide the fear and challenge when going for high risk/high reward loot.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

I do think a future title will do double the number of Tarkov. Whether or not that game is Marathon remains to be seen.

Personally though I like extraction games that remove the PvP aspect or at least make it optional. I prefer the level and enemies themselves to provide the fear and challenge when going for high risk/high reward loot.

They do seem to be making a number of PvE Extraction games as well. As of right now, they seem to all be lower in budget but I could see those popping off to a degree. Examples: Sulfur, Road to Vostok, Zero Sievert, Incursion Red River...

 

[Carmen Winstead]

 

[Wildebeest]

Which ones have lead platform of mobile and are targetting school kids and the china/india markets? If none, then it will not be a big genre.

 

[cormack12]

There's a number of high profile Extraction games that are likely to be released over the next two years.

They will only distract existing audiences for a bit, and then there are the big drops which will be ubiquitous in most libraries (e.g. GTA VI) also vying for attention.

The genre is niche and while the f2p games might get massive upticks on release, they won't retain new players.

PvE is the best shot at breathing new life into the genre but it would seem hollow imo just playing bots. You have to take the genre as it is

 

[Nonehxc]

I predict they won't extract a single coin out of my purse

 

[Griffon]

It's just a multiplayer game mode like many others. Get over yourself OP.
It having successful games or not doesn't really matter, other game modes will rise and fall after it. It's all just multiplayer games.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Only 12 votes after 150 thread views?

 

[Bumblebeetuna]

I think it will grow just because of Marathon. It and Tarkov will carry the genre, with a small chance of the PUBG game being big too. But it won’t grow by tons. It’s a twist on the BR genre but most people still prefer BR.

 

[diffusionx]

However, there's a chance I get hit by a bus in that time frame...

 

[Werewolf Jones]

Have you ever played a single player game?

 

[FoxMcChief]

Probably about 27 people will still be playing them.

 

[april6e]

The AAA company that realizes that there is a gaping wide open market for a PvE extraction shooter on console is going to make bank. Helldivers 2 is the closest thing but they shot themselves in the foot with their non-stop launch issues. These companies are focused on the PvP aspect because of all the money that can be made there. The actual need however is a is a PvE extraction game (on console and PC) where the threat is extremely difficult CPU enemies and you (optionally) can work together with other online players to sneak in, grab loot and then try to extract alive without the PvP aspect.

Also, they are too caught up on it having to be a shooter. I would rather play a fantasy based extraction game (kinda like Dark and Darker but larger and PvE focused).

 

[Danjin44]

 

[EN250]

genre? the only thing that exists and evolve is Forthnite sustaining its player base, then there's COD with +20 years of built in fanbase, then some others that have a niche locked-in and lastly the hot for a week stuff, that comes and goes to be replaced by the next hot thing of the week and the cycle goes on, your extraction shooter genre is another GAAS fad

 

[Aces High]

The AAA company that realizes that there is a gaping wide open market for a PvE extraction shooter on console is going to make bank. Helldivers 2 is the closest thing but they shot themselves in the foot with their non-stop launch issues. These companies are focused on the PvP aspect because of all the money that can be made there. The actual need however is a is a PvE extraction game (on console and PC) where the threat is extremely difficult CPU enemies and you (optionally) can work together with other online players to sneak in, grab loot and then try to extract alive without the PvP aspect.

Also, they are too caught up on it having to be a shooter. I would rather play a fantasy based extraction game (kinda like Dark and Darker but larger and PvE focused).

I agree. PvP extraction sounds frustrating as hell. Because people will be camping extraction points relentlessly. So you would need to make extraction points random, which would make the game rng-based and unfair.

A co-op extraction game, however, could be fun. And it doesn't even need to be a shooter. Could also be 3rd-person action with sophisticated movement systems like Sekiro. Drop in, do mission objective, get as much loot as possible, try to get out alive. Getting hunted through the map by a soulslike boss sounds tense.

So it's basically Gantz.

 

[adamsapple]

I'll vote 400% just for you boxes.

Cause no one else will.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

I'll vote 400% just for you boxes.

Cause no one else will.

I don't want that. I want your true prediction.

73 percent of the people in this poll so far are completely unhinged. The reasonable poll options really begin at 120k average CCU and up. This thread will destroy lives in 730 days. May God have mercy on their souls.

 

[Crayon]

Bro hardly anyone thinks bout this shit. People like to vote when they have an opinion on something.

 

[Topher]

 

[El Muerto]

I thought we were measuring things in Concords?

 

[PendekarRajawali]

 

[Shubh_C63]

Slight increase over current playercount.
I will never discount Bungie and definitely a LOT of people will try the game, even begrudgingly.

 

[badblue]

Today, there are 3 titles that comprise the bulk of the Extraction Shooter market. Escape from Tarkov, Hunt Showdown, and Dark and Darker.

Escape from Tarkov - (e) 50k average CCU on game launcher
Hunt: Showdown - 12k average CCU on Steam, (e) 8k average CCU on console
Dark and Darker - 9k average CCU on Steam

Helldivers 2 is also considered an extraction shooter.

102,196k 24 hour peak.

 

[The_Observer]

I’m 99% sure that OP is only trolling NeoGaf. But he is enjoying the responses at the minimum.

 

[BlackTron]

I’m 99% sure that OP is only trolling NeoGaf. But he is enjoying the responses at the minimum.

I too deal with defense mechanisms.

 

[drganon]

Don't know, don't care.

 

[cormack12]

Will men_in_boxes extract successfully from gaf before mods headshot him?

 

[Lukaku's First Touch]

You're forgetting about DMZ and now Delta force. I really love DMZ (without cheaters). Delta force is much slower but pretty fun too.

 

[Danjin44]

Will men_in_boxes extract successfully from gaf before mods headshot him?