Professor who predicted recession says we are still screwed.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqLMEUObhysc

Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who anticipated the financial crisis, called the fourth quarter surge in U.S. economic growth “very dismal and poor” because it relied on temporary factors.

Roubini said more than half of the 5.7 percent expansion reported yesterday by the government was related to a replenishing of inventories and that consumption depended on monetary and fiscal stimulus. As these forces ebb, growth will slow to just 1.5 percent in the second half of 2010, he said.

“The headline number will look large and big, but actually when you dissect it, it’s very dismal and poor,” Roubini told Bloomberg Television in an interview at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. “I think we are in trouble.”

Roubini said while the world’s largest economy won’t relapse into recession, unemployment will rise from the current 10 percent, posing social and political challenges.

“It’s going to feel like a recession even if technically we’re not going to be in a recession,” he said.
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essentially the way things have "recovered" the rich are doing OK, but wages and benefits have stagnated to the lowest levels in over 20 years. So even the working class that's actually working are screwed.
 
I believe it. At this point it's all about making voters happy until elections roll around. Some of this is blatantly transparent, like tax breaks to companies who give their workers (artificial) pay raises.

I have less confidence in the economy now than I did a year ago. Nothing we have done seems to help.
 
nyong said:
I believe it. At this point it's all about making voters happy until elections roll around. Some of this is blatantly transparent, like tax breaks to companies who give their workers (artificial) pay raises.

I have less confidence in the economy now than I did a year ago. Nothing we have done seems to help.
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We haven't really done anything:

The deficit is STILL out of control.

Businesses are still hard as shit to get started from the ground up.

Credit is still too easy to get for the normal person who has no real way to pay it back long-term (but yet very often hard for legitimate businesses).

People are still being incentivized to sit on their asses and not dare take lower-paying jobs because of extended benefits.

We are still bailing out companies that fucked up, showing them that as long as they are "too big to fail," then they can risk the whole farm on anything and everything.

The currency situation with China and other developing countries doesn't seem it will ever be resolved.
 
One of my dads friends also says its gonna fuck up again, he also predicted the crash. Keep what you got and try save some more.......... then buy a house when everyone else is poor.
 
loosus said:
We haven't really done anything:

The deficit is STILL out of control.

Businesses are still hard as shit to get started from the ground up.

Credit is still too easy to get for the normal person who has no real way to pay it back long-term (but yet very often hard for legitimate businesses).

People are still being incentivized to sit on their asses and not dare take lower-paying jobs because of extended benefits.

We are still bailing out companies that fucked up, showing them that as long as they are "too big to fail," then they can risk the whole farm on anything and everything.

The currency situation with China and other developing countries doesn't seem it will ever be resolved.
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I think the idea is to convince the masses that everything is wonderful so they start overspending again. But I don't think that type of economy is sustainable in the long term. We're going to ride the financial rollercoaster until the entire system collapses on itself. This recession was just a warning.
 
Never really gave all this shit much thought until this past holiday season. Strolling multiple cities north of san fran on foot down main strips you now see commercial buildings for lease/sale almost on every block.

Small business mixed with big business chains.

Locations where I have never seen totally vacant spots in my adult life. In the past any business that may have shut down, there would be a waiting list for potential leesees. Now you have many choices in prime spots.

I have seen signs talking about .49 a square foot and less in prime locations. Allot of opportunity for small business to get there foot in the door.

Some wierd ass shit for sure. Makes me wonder what it looks like in other locations.
 
Secret Banking Cabal Emerges From AIG Shadows: David Reilly
Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The idea of secret banking cabals that control the country and global economy are a given among conspiracy theorists who stockpile ammo, bottled water and peanut butter. After this week’s congressional hearing into the bailout of American International Group Inc., you have to wonder if those folks are crazy after all.

Wednesday’s hearing described a secretive group deploying billions of dollars to favored banks, operating with little oversight by the public or elected officials.

We’re talking about the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, whose role as the most influential part of the federal-reserve system -- apart from the matter of AIG’s bailout -- deserves further congressional scrutiny.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aaIuE.W8RAuU
 
USA, I love you guys. And thats coming from a European too.

But you are f....d in the a..
Sorry to say but its true. From all that ive gathered your on your way to the biggest crash of a civilisation in the history.

Just for the economic part watch this condensed version of IOUSA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_TjBNjc9Bo
 
Yes, because this was the one guy who predicted the crash.

Krugman also predicted it and thinks we'll be out of it in 18 months.

I'm going to give him a little more credit than this guy.
 
Roubini said more than half of the 5.7 percent expansion reported yesterday by the government was related to a replenishing of inventories and that consumption depended on monetary and fiscal stimulus.
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You don't say! Now if only the rest of America/Republicans would take an econ course.
 
ronito said:
essentially the way things have "recovered" the rich are doing OK, but wages and benefits have stagnated to the lowest levels in over 20 years. So even the working class that's actually working are screwed.
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When will it start trickling down?
 
Kaeru said:
USA, I love you guys. And thats coming from a European too.

But you are f....d in the a..
Sorry to say but its true. From all that ive gathered your on your way to the biggest crash of a civilisation in the history.
Click to expand...

Bah, Euro is no better off. Better we just be friends as Asia conquers us both.
 
apart from the whole housing market and recission dealy. what about the fact that 3rd/2nd world nations are progressing faster than ever and they're full of people who are willing to work harder and longer than us?

how is the 1st world gonna stay 1st with that being the case? not that they necessarily should.

i for one embrace a more equal future.
 
-COOLIO- said:
apart from the whole housing market and recission dealy. what about the fact that 3rd/2nd world nations are progressing faster than ever and they're full of people who are willing to work harder and longer than us?

how is the 1st world gonna stay 1st with that being the case? not that they necessarily should.

i for one embrace a more equal future.
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It's all about supply and demand. The way the world works now, it would actually be more beneficial for 2nd and 3rd world countries to progress as fast as they can. Problem is that right now, technology has allowed the supply of human resources to increase dramatically while demand for goods and services hasn't progressed as fast. Until the people in 2nd and 3rd world countries become 1st world countries and demand more goods and services, current 1st world countries will continue to experience outsourcing.
 
NetMapel said:
It's all about supply and demand. The way the world works now, it would actually be more beneficial for 2nd and 3rd world countries to progress as fast as they can. Problem is that right now, technology has allowed the supply of human resources to increase dramatically while demand for goods and services hasn't progressed as fast. Until the people in 2nd and 3rd world countries become 1st world countries and demand more goods and services, current 1st world countries will continue to experience outsourcing.
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hmm i c
 
ronito said:
essentially the way things have "recovered" the rich are doing OK, but wages and benefits have stagnated to the lowest levels in over 20 years. So even the working class that's actually working are screwed.
Click to expand...

And people buy less on average, which leads to stagnated manufacturing and goods trading, and...
 
Tamanon said:
But Roubini is usually so positive:(
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Heheh, nice.



At some point America needs to wake up and realize that we cannot outsource all of our manufacturing. We have to make something. There is no other industry that has a ripple effect in our economy like manufacturing. It's the only way for the poor to (easily) move up to the middle class. Otherwise, our middle class is going to continue to wither away and then we will only have two classes. That's when things could get scary.
 
Canada's in what we call a "jobless" recovery right now. We're getting market growth, but unemployment is still high.

So basically: Have-have-not gap is widening.
 
ToxicAdam said:
Heheh, nice.



At some point America needs to wake up and realize that we cannot outsource all of our manufacturing. We have to make something. There is no other industry that has a ripple effect in our economy like manufacturing. It's the only way for the poor to (easily) move up to the middle class. Otherwise, our middle class is going to continue to wither away and then we will only have two classes. That's when things could get scary.
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Well, we need to reconcile ourselves to the truth that middle class cannot be achieved through manufacturing.
 
Well, I guess any one could have predicted a recession was coming if they examined the state of the market. Well......maybe not, if we could have, then we wouldnt be in the state we are in now.

I feel sorry for Obama, having to face this situation, because I think the average person wants the recession to go away in an instant and thats obviously not gonna happen.
 
Gallbaro said:
Well, we need to reconcile ourselves to the truth that middle class cannot be achieved through manufacturing.
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I think the last 60 years of American history prove you wrong on that.
 
I think anybody actually paying attention could've predicted this recession, so this guy really isn't special at all to me.
 
As I see it, there are quite a problems that will need to be fixed before a long-term, sustainable economy is possible:

- Property is overpriced. So is rent. Rent and mortgage payments on average should be less than 1/3rd of an average person's monthly salary.

- Credit card interest rates should be capped.

- Health care is overpriced and flat-out unavailable to a lot of people. Health care premiums should be AT MOST 10% of the average person's monthly pay.

- Execs, bankers, doctors and some other professions make too much, while typical workers make too little.

- Minimum wage laws need to be implemented in places like India and China, but this won't happen because that would slow the bleeding of first world jobs to those countries.
 
If the US stopped outsourcing everything, creating a huge trade deficit and giving domestic jobs to foreign workers then the economy would recover (as in every would have a job in the US), though no one would be able to afford everything as things would all cost more. The basic issue of being a society whose economy revolves largely around consumption of non-wealth-generating foreign resources means that in the long term the US is completely fucked, with the beneficiaries being those countries who have received US investment on wealth-generating resources. Globalization smooths out wealth, distributing it to those who have the lowest standards of living/environment/ethical controls and taking if from those that have higher ones.
 
ToxicAdam said:
Heheh, nice.



At some point America needs to wake up and realize that we cannot outsource all of our manufacturing. We have to make something. There is no other industry that has a ripple effect in our economy like manufacturing. It's the only way for the poor to (easily) move up to the middle class. Otherwise, our middle class is going to continue to wither away and then we will only have two classes. That's when things could get scary.
Click to expand...

Hey, look at that! I agree with ToxicAdam on a political position. <3
 
StoOgE said:
Yes, because this was the one guy who predicted the crash.

Krugman also predicted it and thinks we'll be out of it in 18 months.

I'm going to give him a little more credit than this guy.
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What? Krugman's concerned about a Japanese-style "lost decade", or worse, due to our inability to respond adequately to the liquidity trap, and he's just embarked on what appears to be a long-term effort to push for financial reform. He's been consistently pessimistic about our current state of affairs.

This is nearly a month old but, as far as I know, still reflects his current thinking: "I was saying that right from the beginning. Based on everything we knew about the aftermath of financial crises, this was likely to be a really prolonged period of depressed economy."

EDIT: I do agree, however, that we shouldn't listen to someone just because they guessed right on the last major economic shitstorm. Listen to Roubini because he's sensible on fundamentals- he was right for the right reasons.
 
it's not that we're never going to recover, it's that we never properly bottomed out. if aig had been allowed to implode, causing a collapse of the world's largest financial solutions.. so what? it would have cost us taxpayers about the same, but all that money wouldn't have gone straight into bankers' pockets. it would have gone into new lending facilities to replace what vanished - and with fannie, freddie and fha taking such a huge role now, we basically did that anyway, so why the fuck are we paying all these idiots for not originating mortgages?

i don't believe for a fraction of second that any of these institutions were too big to fail. the executives just had the right politicians on their payroll to save them so they could justify another eight-digit bonus - on the basis that he got washington in his back pocket to save the company from going under.
 
America is in big trouble, especially due to the fact that we make nothing. What do we export? Services? What's especially troubling is that we are missing out on a ton of manufacturing 'know-how', since all of the foreigners are getting the experience. People thought their 'degreed jobs' would be safe and that you would merely have to be reeducated, but honestly, if the corporations could ship your jobs overseas to save a significant buck, they would have, and we're going to start seeing more of that now.
 
Pack your bags grab a gun and join the military.

it's the only place hiring to be honest. :lol

3 squares a day and a gun.

what more could you want?
 
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