not approaching is the biggest short-term improvement you can make to your debate game. this strategy is THE REASON most top placers at nationals are where they are; it's that good. i firmly believe that theoretical top level debate is a game of first hit wins, just because whoever lands the first hit never has to approach their opponent.
Trump is going to be the nominee. After this debate he is going to be in the 40% range for the rest of the primary, until someone drops out and he'll probably cross 50%.