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[EatChildren]

I don't have too much time to sink into this, but in a nutshell, so everyone consider this real now? Why? Forced leak what? Pre-announcement what?

Some summary will be nice.

See a few posts ago. People are thinking it's true because;
- Nintendo's fiscal year report to shareholders/investors is at the end of this month.
- Software is basically dead on the Wii, both from Nintendo and third parties.
- Wii sales suck and are getting suckier. They will want to impress investors, not tell them the company is in a realm of suckery.
- Game Informer are usually pretty reliable with rumours.
- Numerous other sites follow through with matching information. Likely all from the same source.

 

[Branduil]

I love how some of you guys are humoring the thought of no motion control.

Actually.... I hate that you're even humoring it.

Stop making me worry dammit.

There is literally no possibility of it not having motion controls. At best a Classic controller will be included with the system.

 

[AniHawk]

I think ultimately the question is a bit unanswerable until we know what "significantly more powerful than the PS3" actually means.

If it's a 3DS like system, Sony could definitely sell a notably more powerful system for a similar cost without losing much (or anything).

If it's an NGP like system, Sony could not, even coming in a year later.

nintendo initially wanted to launch the wii at $199.99, and i think that was their plan for the 3ds as well (until they decided to punish the people who were excited for it). if there's not any sort of price-gouging going on, would it be unreasonable to suggest late-2010/early-2011 tech and sell the system for a profit at launch for $299.99?

maybe the leap would be equivalent to the ps2-to-xbox jump and not a dreamcast-to-xbox jump.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

also one of the things people are kind of not discussing is the huuuuuge risk Nintendo is taking in blowing their load so early that when their competitors come out they are again vastly more powerful and thus, ports will be difficult. The inability to receive functional ports was one of the largest factors in destroying their third party support last gen.

Will be very curious indeed

Really? That's pretty much been one of the key points of this discussion right from the off :-D

A lot of people seem convinced that Sony/MS will be able to make another massive leap and take the industry with them. I'm not at all convinced that will be the case. It should be possible for them to build machines that make a full-gen leap from where they are right now, and bring them in at a reasonable price, but I'm not convinced that the industry is prepared for another round of bump-the-budget.

Assuming I'm correct, Nintendo may be in a rather strong position - they can bring out a more powerful machine than their competitors' current offerings, but still keep within spitting distance to allow devs to up-port without incurring significantly increased costs. If MS and Sony make the modest jump I'm expecting, then that might put them ahead of the Wii2 on paper, but a headstart and the added cost of taking full advantage of the more powerful machines might keep Wii2 competitive.

It'll be interesting to see how things play out.

 

[Kintaro]

Well, at this point...nothing Nintendo does would surprise me anymore. Hilarious how "way more impressive than PS3" is somehow a bullet point though. You could use 2008 technology and do that. lol

I would get a chuckle out of seeing the blu-ray logo on a Nintendo machine though. What would the format be at this point? Does Nintendo really want to start messing around with constantly upgrading hard drives to keep costs down? So many questions...

 

[Kinan]

Well, it looks like its time to get back to those PS4 drawing boards, right, Sony?

 

[Nirolak]

nintendo initially wanted to launch the wii at $199.99, and i think that was their plan for the 3ds as well (until they decided to punish the people who were excited for it). if there's not any sort of price-gouging going on, would it be unreasonable to suggest late-2010/early-2011 tech and sell the system for a profit at launch for $299.99?

maybe the leap would be equivalent to the ps2-to-xbox jump and not a dreamcast-to-xbox jump.

Yeah I think there is a real possibility of getting a PS2-to-Xbox like situation with a $300 box.

(Note: The PS2-to-Xbox analogy would be a potential Wii2-to-PS4 situation analogy, not a Wii-to-Wii2 analogy.)

The real question is if they will actually do this. If their goal really is to get hardcore gamers back however, I believe they would be willing to.

 

[Zeliard]

The reason PS3 came out a year later had a lot to do with Blu-ray. Remember those blue laser diode shortages and all that? Overall, PS3 tech is not one year ahead of Xbox 360 tech.

True, but if 720/PS4 come out a year or even two after the Wii2, it won't necessarily mean they're that much more advanced.

Both Microsoft and Sony have heavily invested in Kinect and Move (particularly Microsoft with the former) and are probably not ready to ditch them yet. They could end up purposefully delaying their next-gen systems due to those peripherals, and that may not necessarily mean they'll be that much more advanced over what Nintendo gives us.

But just looking at Nintendo's history, it'll be very interesting to see if they'll actual push some tech (relatively speaking) this time around. They can take a fairly educated stab at what Sony and Microsoft will do with their next-gen consoles by looking at things like hardware cycles, current costs of various parts to manufacture, talking with devs, etc. That doesn't however mean they'll try to go for hardware equality with the other consoles, especially if they're trying to keep their price below that of the other two. All of this is extremely hypothetical at this point, ultimately.

 

[NemesisPrime]

Good stuff. I am ready for a new console. This cycle has gone on too long IMHO. I am playing more and more on my PC because of the dodgy framerates on current HD consoles.

Both Microsoft and Sony have heavily invested in Kinect and Move (particularly Microsoft with the former) and are probably not ready to ditch them yet

Both of these will almost certainly just work with their next gen systems. No need to ditch them. In fact... Kinect will get a resolution upgrade on the next gen system just because of the USB.

 

[AiTM]

If MS and Sony make the modest jump I'm expecting

How is it even possible to have a modest jump from hardware released in 2005? Esp hardware that will need to carry you until 2018-2020

 

[BigJonsson]

So what exactly does the upcoming games list look like for the Wii right now?

Zelda and what else?

 

[Dr.Palutena]

After 8 years time(assuming Sony/MS launch in 2013), it would be impossible to not be a generational leap over the 360 and PS3.

phrases like this are about as useless to me as scouters in DBZ, whats a "generational " leap . i can see already when/if wii 2 graphics is shown , that wars will rage for days about if its a significant leap or not and how the ps4/360 will look far better.

 

[Gouty]

If this thing plays Wii games in HD it could launch with zero original games and I'd be thrilled.

 

[AiTM]

Good stuff. I am ready for a new console. This cycle has gone on too long IMHO. I am playing more and more on my PC because of the dodgy framerates on current HD consoles.

The best thing this generation has done for me...Steam. Cheap digital distribution done right.

 

[Jocchan]

Really? That's pretty much been one of the key points of this discussion right from the off :-D

A lot of people seem convinced that Sony/MS will be able to make another massive leap and take the industry with them. I'm not at all convinced that will be the case. It should be possible for them to build machines that make a full-gen leap from where they are right now, and bring them in at a reasonable price, but I'm not convinced that the industry is prepared for another round of bump-the-budget.

Assuming I'm correct, Nintendo may be in a rather strong position - they can bring out a more powerful machine than their competitors' current offerings, but still keep within spitting distance to allow devs to up-port without incurring significantly increased costs. If MS and Sony make the modest jump I'm expecting, then that might put them ahead of the Wii2 on paper, but a headstart and the added cost of taking full advantage of the more powerful machines might keep Wii2 competitive.

It'll be interesting to see how things play out.

There's also the fact Nintendo doesn't have much of a choice. The Wii has been clinically dead for a while, the lack of decent third party support is a serious lack of royalty money. Nintendo, like every company, likes money. So, they need a platform with decent third party support.

You expected something less from a thread about a new home console?

 

[EDarkness]

So what exactly does the upcoming games list look like for the Wii right now?

Zelda and what else?

Maybe Xenoblade. Possibly Last Story. And maybe a Kirby game.

 

[AniHawk]

It's possible of course, but I think Microsoft is eager to make it's Kinectbox success last as long as it can now that it's actually starting to kick some ass at retail and bring in the money. Sony is less tied down since arguably Move was less of a risk. But still, I don't think either will want to 2012 launch, and I don't think either are in a position to go for a 2012 launch if they haven't already been planning for it.

sony's big problem really isn't that they're tied down because of move, but that they're using all their big developers this year and next on the ps3 and ngp. it would be like nintendo launching a new console this year. they simply don't have the teams ready for it, even for a launch window dealy.

i thought there were some listings for jobs at microsoft doing work on a next gen system. i think it was sometime late last year.

 

[Foffy]

I don't have too much time to sink into this, but in a nutshell, so everyone consider this real now? Why? Forced leak what? Pre-announcement what?

Some summary will be nice.

- Wii sales have been sliding for Nintendo
- Support for the system is almost exclusively on the backs of Nintendo now
- Nintendo's internal studios are awfully silent in terms of products, and almost all of Nintendo's 3DS games are being developed with external companies
- Nintendo's fiscal report is this month, which directly coincides with reports of an April announcement

Surely Nintendo is cooking something up, especially considering all of their studios being in the dark and currently unable to exclusively make 3DS software internally just yet. Not even the Zelda remake for 3DS is being made solely by Nintendo.

 

[metareferential]

True, but if 720/PS4 come out a year or even two after the Wii2, it won't necessarily mean they're that much more advanced.

Both Microsoft and Sony have heavily invested in Kinect and Move (particularly Microsoft with the former) and are probably not ready to ditch them yet. They could end up purposefully delaying their next-gen systems due to those peripherals, and that may not necessarily mean they'll be that much more advanced over what Nintendo gives us.

But just looking at Nintendo's history, it'll be very interesting to see if they'll actual push some tech (relatively speaking) this time around. They can take a fairly educated stab at what Sony and Microsoft will do with their next-gen consoles by looking at things like hardware cycles, current costs of various parts to manufacture, talking with devs, etc. That doesn't however mean they'll try to go for hardware equality with the other consoles, especially if they're trying to keep their price below that of the other two. All of this is extremely hypothetical at this point, ultimately.

Nintendo just likes to use old tech to cut costs and rip consumers at launch (and beyond).

That's what they'll do.

Even if it releases in 2012, it doesn't mean it's 2012 tech.

That's assuming they'll stick to the general plan, as they did with DS, Wii and 3DS. Maybe I'm just hating. xD

 

[BigJonsson]

Maybe Xenoblade. Possibly Last Story. And maybe a Kirby game.

Eeeek, guess I have time to go through my backlog

 

[EatChildren]

Yeah I think there is a real possibility of getting a PS2-to-Xbox like situation with a $300 box.

The real question is if they will actually do this. If their goal really is to get hardcore gamers back however, I believe they would be willing to.

A small jump like that would be expected from Nintendo, but quite disappointing in my opinion. It's wishful thinking, but I do hope there's some noticable power under the hood.

 

[Neo Child]

We should be expecting this to be at least 360/PS3 graphics quality. I'm sorta sick of Nintendo staying in the last generation, does not do it any favours. If they want to recapture the hardcore market and secure big 3rd party games it needs to be capable of PS4/Xbox3 graphics would it not? Not just last-gen all the time.

 

[knitoe]

Nintendo would want to make a profit on Wii2 right away. That would limit on how much powerful they can pack into the machine. I would expect it to be 2X-4X more powerful than the X360/PS3. Given that Microsoft / Sony are willing to take losses on the hardware at first and X720 / PS4 coming a year later, I would expect them to be much 2X-4X powerful than Wii2. This would make X720/PS4 about 10X more powerful than their current console which are inline with what you would expect.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

How is it even possible to have a modest jump from hardware released in 2005? Esp hardware that will need to carry you until 2018-2020

How is it possible to have next-to-no jump from hardware released in 2001, that carried you from 2006 to 2011/2012?

 

[herod]

As long as it's HD and can manage stuff that the PS3 and 360 can't quite do at 720p then I would imagine nothing else really matters. If companies like Square Enix can't scrape the budget together to implement their flagship game the way they want to (HD towns lol) on current kit, then what is the point of significantly more powerful kit?

 

[Nirolak]

sony's big problem really isn't that they're tied down because of kinect, but that they're using all their big developers this year and next on the ps3 and ngp. it would be like nintendo launching a new console this year. they simply don't have the teams ready for it, even for a launch window dealy.

i thought there were some listings for jobs at microsoft doing work on a next gen system. i think it was sometime late last year.

It was actually just a month ago or so: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=423724

So far though I'm standing by my 2013 prediction for both Microsoft and Sony.

A small jump like that would be expected from Nintendo, but quite disappointing in my opinion. It's wishful thinking, but I do hope there's some noticable power under the hood.

Oh no, the PS2-to-Xbox analogy would be a potential Wii2-to-PS4 situation analogy, not a Wii-to-Wii2 analogy.

 

[BigJonsson]

Nintendo just likes to use old tech to cut costs and rip consumers at launch (and beyond).

That's what they'll do.

Even if it releases in 2012, it doesn't mean it's 2012 tech.

That's assuming they'll stick to the general plan, as they did with DS, Wii and 3DS. Maybe I'm just hating. xD

Maybe they are going to change that with all the money they've made, they feel like they can take an expensive risk to make even more monies

 

[Attack You]

also one of the things people are kind of not discussing is the huuuuuge risk Nintendo is taking in blowing their load so early that when their competitors come out they are again vastly more powerful and thus, ports will be difficult. The inability to receive functional ports was one of the largest factors in destroying their third party support last gen.

Will be very curious indeed

I'm hoping Nintendo's system gets singled out again next gen. For my tastes, my PS3 (which I still value more for its ability to play PS2 games) suffered immensely by sharing so much of its catalogue with 360 and PC. Even if it's arguably an illusion that the bigger publishers shunning the Wii leaves openings for smaller publishers to fill, my Wii library enjoyed some real gains from it.

 

[AiTM]

How is it possible to have next-to-no jump from hardware released in 2001, that carried you from 2006 to 2011/2012?

Touché

Edit: but that is Nintendo, you really think MS/Sony will emulate their strategy? Especially with how they are trailing off now? I think even though they are reaching for the casual/ motion control market...they still will go after hardcore first. And as much as those companies love pushing/ bragging about tech, I dont see them pushing out a meager upgrade that supposed to last 6-7 years.

 

[Daante]

E3 will be megaton-epic if all this is true..

 

[Zeliard]

Both of these will almost certainly just work with their next gen systems. No need to ditch them. In fact... Kinect will get a resolution upgrade on the next gen system just because of the USB.

Well they would likely end up ditching a significant portion of the Kinect's consumer base, not necessarily the peripheral itself. How many of those people are going to buy a new console to continue with Kinect, when many of them bought the Kinect alongside a new 360? They'd inevitably end up splitting their Kinect base because the most "impressive" Kinect games are likely to be found on the spiffier console.

 

[TheVampire]

Well, the 360 and PS3 can do full AA and AF.


.

No they cant.

 

[herod]

Also, can Sony even afford to launch a new system anytime soon?

 

[Mithos]

Having read this thread, and previous Wii speculation threads, wouldn't Nintendo have to really REALLY work to get their "Nintendo HD" console to "ONLY" be up to par PS360?
I mean on one of the online-shop I buy PC-hardware the cheapest ATi is like $40 (HD5450, 512mb), shouldn't be hard at all being cheap and surpass PS360 without trying would it?

 

[Freezie KO]

I think we're looking at a 3DS-like system, which still isn't powerful enough for those that slobber over the PSP2. I can't imagine Nintendo changing their philosophy on hardware between their handheld and their home console, considering the 3DS just came out as an example of what they're thinking with hardware.

I mean, there's a thread speculating "how PSP2 games will play" as if it doesn't have pretty much the exact same inputs as a PS3 with comparable power. I dunno, they'll probably play like PS3 games. I can't imagine the Wii 2 will satiate these people. Not to mention, you're still looking at a compromised online space, albeit improving.

Nintendo said they wanted to get "the hardcore" back with the 3DS, but then PSP2 came, even bigger and more powerful, and stole away the imaginations of some people without even showing a game. Ultimately, games are what will matter, but if you're looking to hardware, I find it hard to believe that Nintendo will be that cutting edge. It's not playing out in the handheld space, and they just released their latest hardware.

 

[Nirolak]

No they cant.

They can if you render it slow enough.

This is how we generate tileshots.

Not sure how interactive it would be...

 

[criesofthepast]

How much does Sony make on blu ray royalties (is royalties the right word?) Having the wii 2 and next gen xbox using blu ray should make them pretty happy.

 

[AniHawk]

It was actually just a month ago or so: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=423724

So far though I'm standing by my 2013 prediction for both Microsoft and Sony.


Oh no, the PS2-to-Xbox analogy would be a potential Wii2-to-PS4 situation analogy, not a Wii-to-Wii2 analogy.

thanks for that. maybe it was because march was so long that i felt it was a year ago.

i think i mixed up some 343 recruiting stuff there too.

 

[Risk Breaker]

I have one little question... To those people that think the console will be one (or almost one) full generation ahead of 360 and PS3 AND that it will cost 299$... how?

To be one generation ahead doesn't mean it has double the ram, it'd have to have at least 4gigs, 6-core CPU, some almost-DX12 GPU and all those things than we expect from XB720 and PS4. And how do people expect Nintendo to do something like that and sell it for 299 or even 399? I must remind everyone that both the Wii and the 3DS have been 250€ at launch. I really don't expect Nintendo to sell a console any higher than that as long as it keeps working for them. And with the huge profit margins that Nintendo works with, how would anyone think that the console will be a full generation ahead of what we have now?

What I personally expect, trying to see through the media hype, is something like the jump from 3DS to PSP. So it would be a fairly powerful console that can easily handle any and every port and multiplatform titles, but like the Xbox, would suffer from being "almost" the same and not being a true step forward. I would be reaaally surprised if it doesn't end up being like this.

 

[Durante]

I'm curious to see what "way more powerful" will mean in practice. I hope it's not the same as 3DS being "way more powerful" than PSP.

No they cant.

Of course they can. It's just that many high-end games are overshooting their assets and/or post-processing to an extent where you can be happy if 720p with no AA runs somewhat well.

 

[Jocchan]

Yeah I think there is a real possibility of getting a PS2-to-Xbox like situation with a $300 box.

The real question is if they will actually do this. If their goal really is to get hardcore gamers back however, I believe they would be willing to.

To achieve such a small jump nowadays, they would have to try really hard to hold their tech back. I doubt they would do it, Nintendo isn't opposed to tech per se. The Wii being so underpowered, more than to their philosophy, was likely a choice due to the risk of releasing such a different platform coming off the Gamecube, and due to the fact that the Wii remote originated as a Gamecube add-on. The Wii is the only case of Nintendo releasing outdated tech: with their handhelds, they've always been releasing devices whose power was comparable to their previous generation console.

 

[EDarkness]

A small jump like that would be expected from Nintendo, but quite disappointing in my opinion. It's wishful thinking, but I do hope there's some noticable power under the hood.

I'm really hoping that they go all out this time. If they want people to convert from 360/PS3, then they have to be willing to not just give gamers a little bump. They'll need something significant. I would imagine they know this, but being that they're so tight with cash, I don't have much hope that it's anything other than more of what we have now. Thing is, Nintendo used to be all over the tech, I guess the way they handled the Wii really jaded me a little.

 

[Nirolak]

To achieve such a small jump nowadays, they would have to try really hard to hold their tech back. I doubt they would do it, Nintendo isn't opposed to tech per se. The Wii being so underpowered, more than to their philosophy, was likely a choice due to the risk of releasing such a different platform coming off the Gamecube.

I should probably edit this note into my original post.

Oh no, the PS2-to-Xbox analogy would be a potential Wii2-to-PS4 situation analogy, not a Wii-to-Wii2 analogy.

 

[Jonnyram]

also one of the things people are kind of not discussing is the huuuuuge risk Nintendo is taking in blowing their load so early that when their competitors come out they are again vastly more powerful and thus, ports will be difficult. The inability to receive functional ports was one of the largest factors in destroying their third party support last gen.

Will be very curious indeed

What 'load'?
Nothing has been blown at all yet, and it would be very unlike them to say much if and when they do mention it. If it's coming out in the second half of next year, I don't expect them to mention it at E3 at all. But I'd think they'd want to get it out this year in Japan/early next year in the West, to have something to compete with NGP, at least.

 

[GavinGT]

Well they would likely end up ditching a significant portion of the Kinect's consumer base, not necessarily the peripheral itself. How many of those people are going to buy a new console to continue with Kinect, when many of them bought the Kinect alongside a new 360? They'd inevitably end up splitting their Kinect base because the most "impressive" Kinect games are likely to be found on the spiffier console.

If the USB throughput rumor a while back was true, all MS has to do is disable one of the USB ports in order to reduce the data propagation time by a factor of 2.

 

[_Xenon_]

WTF how did I miss this thread? Nintendo finally man up don't they?

 

[NemesisPrime]

Well they would likely end up ditching a significant portion of the Kinect's consumer base, not necessarily the peripheral itself. How many of those people are going to buy a new console to continue with Kinect, when many of them bought the Kinect alongside a new 360? They'd inevitably end up splitting their Kinect base because the most "impressive" Kinect games are likely to be found on the spiffier console.

Ok fair enough, I guess so. Ofc the big question is if the Kinect loving casuals really care about "the best looking Kinect games". They might be quite happy with their current 360 Kinect. Who knows.. maybe MS will even louch an even cheaper 360 with build in Kinect just to keep that market alive for a few more years to rake in some $$.

TBH I expect a new 360 XMas 2013 as well. It makes sense. Would be great if we have a new Nintendo console to mess around with before that.

 

[ThoseDeafMutes]

sony's big problem really isn't that they're tied down because of move, but that they're using all their big developers this year and next on the ps3 and ngp. it would be like nintendo launching a new console this year. they simply don't have the teams ready for it, even for a launch window dealy.

i thought there were some listings for jobs at microsoft doing work on a next gen system. i think it was sometime late last year.

iirc the microsoft listings were actually early this year.

 

[Jocchan]

I should probably edit this note into my original post.

Whoops. I got it as PS360-to-Wii2. I edited my post too, btw

 

[watershed]

What I personally expect, trying to see through the media hype, is something like the jump from 3DS to PSP. So it would be a fairly powerful console that can easily handle any and every port and multiplatform titles, but like the Xbox, would suffer from being "almost" the same and not being a true step forward. I would be reaaally surprised if it doesn't end up being like this.

So Nintendo's jumping backwards now? But seriously I don't see how a half-step type upgrade in processing power can last an entire generation if Nintendo wants to gain 3rd party support and "recapture the hardcore" audience.