Support NeoGAF

[Celcius]

If anyone wanted to know why Russia moves their convoys in bunched up straight lines:



The tires on their vehicles haven’t been maintained well over the the past year and that plus the mud is a disaster for them.

 

[Nobody_Important]

lol

"Highly Speculative"

Ya don't say!

 

[DeepBreath87]

Analysis from a conflict expert who predicted the Afghan disaster.

Putin is NOT crazy, the Russian invasion is NOT failing: BILL ROGGIO

ROGGIO: Believing Russia's assault is going poorly may make us feel better but is at odds with the facts. We cannot help Ukraine if we cannot be honest about its predicament.

www.dailymail.co.uk

This is what I’ve been seeing. Russia is sustaining some losses, but they’re clearly making progress. Whether they are disappointed with the progress or not is really up for debate. I’m assuming they are surprised by the coordinated response from the West, but who can say? Regardless, in purely military terms, this remains a war that Russia is going to win sooner or later.

Now what comes next remains to be seen. I have no idea how Russia will hold the territory it occupies outside of the provinces in the East that were already very sympathetic. I doubt shelling the shit out of major cities is going ingratiate them to Ukrainians. So it could turn into some kind of occupation vs guerrilla resistance kind of war. We will see if Russia learned anything from the US in Afghanistan and Iraq at that point.

But the broader point is that we are going to see Kiev fall in the next few days, maybe weeks. It might be comforting to imagine the truly heroic resistance driving the Russians back, but I don’t see that happening. The most they can do it make the Russians bleed for each bit of ground they take. The sanctions are more about punishment and crippling Russia over a more broad time scale than this war will operate on. It’s going to damage their markets in the near term, but most of that won’t have a tangible impact on the war until it’s too late.

 

[akimbo009]

This is what I’ve been seeing. Russia is sustaining some losses, but they’re clearly making progress. Whether they are disappointed with the progress or not is really up for debate. I’m assuming they are surprised by the coordinated response from the West, but who can say? Regardless, in purely military terms, this remains a war that Russia is going to win sooner or later.

Now what comes next remains to be seen. I have no idea how Russia will hold the territory it occupies outside of the provinces in the East that were already very sympathetic. I doubt shelling the shit out of major cities is going ingratiate them to Ukrainians. So it could turn into some kind of occupation vs guerrilla resistance kind of war. We will see if Russia learned anything from the US in Afghanistan and Iraq at that point.

But the broader point is that we are going to see Kiev fall in the next few days, maybe weeks. It might be comforting to imagine the truly heroic resistance driving the Russians back, but I don’t see that happening. The most they can do it make the Russians bleed for each bit of ground they take. The sanctions are more about punishment and crippling Russia over a more broad time scale than this war will operate on. It’s going to damage their markets in the near term, but most of that won’t have a tangible impact on the war until it’s too late.

Nobody thinks they can eternally resist Russia. The sanctions always would take time, but this invasion has left Russia poorer, weaker, and more vulnerable than before. It's all negative for Russia.

It's not like they're going to restore their image or treasure or lives they've lost once Kyiv is occupied. I suspect ongoing insurgency will continue with weapons from the west which will make things continue to falter for Russia.

 

[Hari Seldon]

This is what I’ve been seeing. Russia is sustaining some losses, but they’re clearly making progress. Whether they are disappointed with the progress or not is really up for debate. I’m assuming they are surprised by the coordinated response from the West, but who can say? Regardless, in purely military terms, this remains a war that Russia is going to win sooner or later.

Now what comes next remains to be seen. I have no idea how Russia will hold the territory it occupies outside of the provinces in the East that were already very sympathetic. I doubt shelling the shit out of major cities is going ingratiate them to Ukrainians. So it could turn into some kind of occupation vs guerrilla resistance kind of war. We will see if Russia learned anything from the US in Afghanistan and Iraq at that point.

But the broader point is that we are going to see Kiev fall in the next few days, maybe weeks. It might be comforting to imagine the truly heroic resistance driving the Russians back, but I don’t see that happening. The most they can do it make the Russians bleed for each bit of ground they take. The sanctions are more about punishment and crippling Russia over a more broad time scale than this war will operate on. It’s going to damage their markets in the near term, but most of that won’t have a tangible impact on the war until it’s too late.

Yeah unfortunately it seems like this is the consensus. But it is not over until it is over! If Ukraine can stretch this into months instead of weeks, maybe enough unrest in Russia will stop things.

Edit: Imagine an insurgency where the insurgents are armed with stingers and javelins, rather than makeshift suicide bombs. That is a nightmare.

 

[DeepBreath87]

Yeah unfortunately it seems like this is the consensus. But it is not over until it is over! If Ukraine can stretch this into months instead of weeks, maybe enough unrest in Russia will stop things.

Edit: Imagine an insurgency where the insurgents are armed with stingers and javelins, rather than makeshift suicide bombs. That is a nightmare.

I have a feeling Russia is going to cut Ukraine in half and then negotiate giving some of it back in return for keeping Crimea and the eastern provinces plus a bit of a buffer zone. I don’t believe they will want or be able to occupy much of Western Ukraine for very long. I could be wrong though.

 

[Chaplain]

 

[Romulus]

The issue is Russia is taking so fucking long that it gives the Ukrainians even longer to prepare and get even more weapons shipped in. Guerilla hell for the Russians.

 

[belmarduk]

What’s a good Ukrainian vodka? I had one from Moldova once and it was terrible.

 

[Kraz]

Makes it more understandable the reason Special Forces aren't taking artillery prisoners.

 

[chromhound]

there's a rumor that some of the big boys in Russia put a 1 million bounty on Putin head

 

[Kraz]

We will see if Russia learned anything from the US in Afghanistan and Iraq at that point.

What are you thinking they should have learned?

 

[M1chl]

What’s a good Ukrainian vodka? I had one from Moldova once and it was terrible.

Nemiroff

 

[Gp1]

If anyone wanted to know why Russia moves their convoys in bunched up straight lines:



The tires on their vehicles haven’t been maintained well over the the past year and that plus the mud is a disaster for them.

Great thread
I saw a analyst somewhere before the invasion that this is one of the main reasons that they were predicting the attack for late February and not until their logistical problem were solved. In march the snow melts and terrain becomes almost impractical outside the roads.

 

[FunkMiller]

there's a rumor that some of the big boys in Russia put a 1 million bounty on Putin head

Pfft. It'd have to have another couple of zeros on the end, I think at least.

 

[chromhound]

They need to up the price. i'll do it for 100 million lol

'Wanted: Dead or Alive': Russian Tycoon Puts $1M Bounty on Putin's Head

 

[Deleted member 1159]

What are you thinking they should have learned?

Forgiveness is divine, but never pay full price for late pizza

 

[Vestal]

Things are not going well for Comrade PUTA.. Err I mean Putin..



Diverting forces to contain protests in Russia will only strengthen Ukrainian resolve and spirit.

 

[Kraz]

I saw a analyst somewhere before the invasion that this one of the main reasons that they were predicting the attack for late February and not until their logistical problem were solved. In march the snow melts and terrain becomes almost impractical outside the roads.

The invasion seems to have been planned long before that. A February invasion was mentioned in some podcast earlier in the thread. It might not have been certain at that point, plausible deniability, but enough to inform those that supported it and keep them in the loop to any changes or confirmations.

Rasputista.

 

[AJUMP23]

YACHTZEE!

Can you just start seizing private property because you don’t like how their country of origin is behaving?

this sets a bad precedence for the future. Maybe the US should just start seizing Chinese owned land in America.

 

[DeepBreath87]

What are you thinking they should have learned?

That occupying foreign countries that don’t want you there is an enormous waste of time that comes at tremendous cost.

 

[Kraz]

Can you just start seizing private property because you don’t like how their country of origin is behaving?

You? Probably not.
Don't like? No. It's part of sanctions.

If you want to take it up with Bundeswehr. Feel free.

That occupying foreign countries that don’t want you there is an enormous waste of time that comes at tremendous cost.

Please continue and elaborate how you think that would that be solved?

 

[Gp1]

The invasion seems to have been planned long before that. A February invasion was mentioned in some podcast earlier in the thread. It might not have been certain at that point, plausible deniability, but enough to inform those that supported it and keep them in the loop to any changes or confirmations.

Rasputista.

Yeah probably, but this explains why we are seeing major clogs in their troop movement.

 

[AJUMP23]

You? Probably not.
Don't like? No. It's part of sanctions.

If you want to take it up with Bundeswehr. Feel free.


Please continue and elaborate how would that be solved?

A section is against a country not a citizen or their assets. The government has forced private citizens to sell or break up assets in monopoly laws. But to say a private citizen cannot have something anymore due to sanctions against their home country is a bad idea. You could possibly deny its movement or use of assets but you shouldn't just take it.

that is all I will say. No debating Russia is disgusting for attacking Ukraine.

 

[Deleted member 1159]

A section is against a country not a citizen or their assets. The government has forced private citizens to sell or break up assets in monopoly laws. But to say a private citizen cannot have something anymore due to sanctions against their home country is a bad idea. You could possibly deny its movement or use of assets but you shouldn't just take it.

that is all I will say. No debating Russia is disgusting for attacking Ukraine.

They’re targeting Putin’s cronies, these aren’t random private citizens like a Bezos or Musk. Their yachts are ill-gotten from stealing from dirt poor Russian citizens. These guys are the Russian state.

 

[chromhound]

They’re targeting Putin’s cronies, these aren’t random private citizens like a Bezos or Musk. Their yachts are ill-gotten from stealing from dirt poor Russian citizens. These guys are the Russian state.

And those big boys will try to get rid of Putin so they can make money again

 

[Vestal]

A section is against a country not a citizen or their assets. The government has forced private citizens to sell or break up assets in monopoly laws. But to say a private citizen cannot have something anymore due to sanctions against their home country is a bad idea. You could possibly deny its movement or use of assets but you shouldn't just take it.

that is all I will say. No debating Russia is disgusting for attacking Ukraine.

These oligarchs are people directly connected to the decisions and actions of the Russian Government. These are not ordinary civilians and Russia does not have a western style of government or rule of law. The money and assets are all part of how the Russian government conducts business.

 

[DeepBreath87]

You? Probably, not.
Don't like? No. It's part of sanctions.

If you want to take it up with Bundesweir. Feel free.


Please continue and elaborate how would that be solved?

I mean, if I’m Russia, I take Kiev and split Ukraine in half from Kiev to Crimea. I make it clear that I can continue to devastate every city the opposes me demand that Crimea and the eastern provinces be formally recognized as Russia or I will continue until functionally there is no more Ukraine to negotiate with. Then I hope they don’t call my bluff because I don’t want to occupy most of the country.

 

[akimbo009]

Can you just start seizing private property because you don’t like how their country of origin is behaving?

this sets a bad precedence for the future. Maybe the US should just start seizing Chinese owned land in America.

Sanctions, and yes, you can.

 

[Hawking Radiation]

Jesus, that 2nd blast turned night into day for a second.

WTF was that

 

[Kraz]

I mean, if I’m Russia, I take Kiev and split Ukraine in half from Kiev to Crimea. I make it clear that I can continue to devastate every city the opposes me demand that Crimea and the eastern provinces be formally recognized as Russia or I will continue until functionally there is no more Ukraine to negotiate with. Then I hope they don’t call my bluff because I don’t want to occupy most of the country.

That doesn't seem that different from the Afghan/Iraq strategy. What's the applicable lesson?

 

[AJUMP23]

Jesus, that 2nd blast turned night into day for a second.

WTF was that

A bomb.

 

[Gp1]

 

[Craig of War]

Scary shit it like night turn to day for like 1 sec

 

[DeepBreath87]

That doesn't seem that different from the Afghan/Iraq strategy. What's the applicable lesson?

I would say it’s significantly different than Iraq and particularly Afghanistan. The US occupied Afghanistan for 20 years. Tried to build a country there. But the population never bought in, which became obvious because as soon as we said we were leaving, they abandoned the “country” we spent all that time trying to establish. The US had to fight wave after wave of insurgencies to little effect.

The situation between Russia and Ukraine is different. The geography and cultural issues are significantly different. Russia and Ukraine are neighbors. There are portions of Ukraine in the east that, based on things I’ve read, sort of identify with Russian culturally as much as they do Ukraine. So in theory, Russia could assimilate them without expending that much energy.

The clearly doesn’t apply to the majority of Ukraine, however. And if Russia tries to occupy much of Ukraine and turn it into Russia, they will run into the same problems the US did and probably worse.

Just to be clear, that isn’t some justification for what Russia is doing. It’s just a compare and contrast between the US in Iraq/Afghanistan and Russia/Ukraine.

 

[Kraz]

I would say it’s significantly different than Iraq and particularly Afghanistan. The US occupied Afghanistan for 20 years. Tried to build a country there. But the population never bought in, which became obvious because as soon as we said we were leaving, they abandoned the “country” we spent all that time trying to establish. The US had to fight wave after wave of insurgencies to little effect.

The situation between Russia and Ukraine is different. The geography and cultural issues are significantly different. Russia and Ukraine are neighbors. There are portions of Ukraine in the east that, based on things I’ve read, sort of identify with Russian culturally as much as they do Ukraine. So in theory, Russia could assimilate them without expending that much energy.

The clearly doesn’t apply to the majority of Ukraine, however. And if Russia tries to occupy much of Ukraine and turn it into Russia, they will run into the same problems the US did and probably worse.

Just to be clear, that isn’t some justification for what Russia is doing. It’s just a compare and contrast between the US in Iraq/Afghanistan and Russia/Ukraine.

The situations are different, no question.

My inquiry is to what lesson do you see Russia should take from the US experience in Afghan/Iraq.

To be clear myself, your words implied the solution you saw was genocide. Is that the case?

 

[DeepBreath87]

The situations are different, no question.

My inquiry is to what lesson do you see Russia should take from the US experience in Afghan/Iraq.

To be clear myself, your words implied the solution you saw was genocide. Is that the case?

Oh no. If that’s how it came across, that wasn’t my intention. I guess in theory that would be a “solution” from the sense that if you kill everyone, you don’t have to worry about an opposition. But I wasn’t even considering that as an option just because it would just be too horrific.

The “lesson” I was talking about was not to try and occupy and nation-build in a place where the people reject you. Because there are portions of Ukraine that probably are willing to accept Russian rule, they should try to force Ukraine and the international community to formally recognize those places as “Russia” and leave the rest.

 

[TransTrender]

What’s a good Ukrainian vodka? I had one from Moldova once and it was terrible.

The best stuff comes in an unlabeled bottle from babushka.

Hope they drown!

 

[Hawking Radiation]

The best stuff comes in an unlabeled bottle from babushka.

Hope they drown!

...in their own shit

 

[Taxexemption]

I would say it’s significantly different than Iraq and particularly Afghanistan. The US occupied Afghanistan for 20 years. Tried to build a country there. But the population never bought in, which became obvious because as soon as we said we were leaving, they abandoned the “country” we spent all that time trying to establish. The US had to fight wave after wave of insurgencies to little effect.

The situation between Russia and Ukraine is different. The geography and cultural issues are significantly different. Russia and Ukraine are neighbors. There are portions of Ukraine in the east that, based on things I’ve read, sort of identify with Russian culturally as much as they do Ukraine. So in theory, Russia could assimilate them without expending that much energy.

The clearly doesn’t apply to the majority of Ukraine, however. And if Russia tries to occupy much of Ukraine and turn it into Russia, they will run into the same problems the US did and probably worse.

Just to be clear, that isn’t some justification for what Russia is doing. It’s just a compare and contrast between the US in Iraq/Afghanistan and Russia/Ukraine.

Afghanistan was also a poor country with a language few Americans would have known. Ukraine is completely different. I imagine Ukrainians have largely been domesticated by civilization, and they can effectively be monitored by Russian intelligence with smartphones. I think it might very well by possible for the Russian government to stamp out most dissent and for the occupation to be a much shorter time period.

At no point in history have we had such a great ability to monitor the private activities of people. That's a lot less useful in a poor country like Afghanistan, especially when there is a language/cultural barrier between the people doing the monitoring and the people being monitored. I think with the technology level we have today, and a domesticated population, you can have a totalitarian state completely dominate the private lives of its people.

Also where is all this technology really going? I mean if we are going to automate more work we need to have new jobs somewhere. Have you ever considered listening to "privately recorded" phone calls as a career? You won't need a college education, just undying patriotism comrade.

 

[Amiga]

Things are not going well for Comrade PUTA.. Err I mean Putin..



Diverting forces to contain protests in Russia will only strengthen Ukrainian resolve and spirit.

Domestics forces have their own units. it's how they control the biggest country on the planet. and military units assigned for government officials are even further separated. almost every country has separation between military arenizations that 1/fight foreign forces . 2/domestic crime .3/domestic militancy against the state. 4/protect from internal regime coups.

Now what comes next remains to be seen.

Worried about other part's of the world where Russia will move. in the recent UN GA vote Pakistan, India, China, Syria, Iraq and Iran all basically sided with Russia. this is almost all of Asia and over half the world population not isolating Russia.
Georgia and Azerbaijan are the only countries stopping a complete lockdown of Central Asia.
In Syria, Bashar still has the legal claim to country that the USA and Turkey still have forces in, Russia could go into a deeper military alliance that includes nuclear coverage like NATO. Russia could also heavily arm the Iraqi anti-USA Hashed militia who are an official government organization. In north Africa Algeria could be given ballistic and nuclear technology.
the sanctions on countries like Libya and North Korea could be ignored and ignite the situation in the Mediterranean and East Asia.
oh and climate policy is pretty much dead and over now.

 

[Kraz]

Afghanistan was also a poor country with a language few Americans would have known. Ukraine is completely different. I imagine Ukrainians have largely been domesticated by civilization, and they can effectively be monitored by Russian intelligence with smartphones. I think it might very well by possible for the Russian government to stamp out most dissent and for the occupation to be a much shorter time period.

At no point in history have we had such a great ability to monitor the private activities of people. That's a lot less useful in a poor country like Afghanistan, especially when there is a language/cultural barrier between the people doing the monitoring and the people being monitored. I think with the technology level we have today, and a domesticated population, you can have a totalitarian state completely dominate the private lives of its people.

Also where is all this technology really going? I mean if we are going to automate more work we need to have new jobs somewhere. Have you ever considered listening to "privately recorded" phone calls as a career? You won't need a college education, just undying patriotism comrade.

That seems to make some optimistic appraisals on incorrect assumption as to the nature of civilization and benefits of education. As well as the supply and technical support from first world nations is a bit different than what the Afghans got.
Your idea that civilization makes Ukrainian people domesticated is misanthropic at best.

 

[Nobody_Important]

I have a feeling Russia is going to cut Ukraine in half and then negotiate giving some of it back in return for keeping Crimea and the eastern provinces plus a bit of a buffer zone. I don’t believe they will want or be able to occupy much of Western Ukraine for very long. I could be wrong though.

You aren't wrong at all.


They have taken massive losses so far just TRYING to take cities and they still do not safely hold a major city despite taking huge losses. Their soldiers are unprepared, undersupplied, and seem to have shit leadership on top of that. They have lost billions in equipment and supplies already. Losses that will take years to recoup. Meanwhile the Ukrainians just keep getting reinforced. There is no realistic scenario where the Russian's can take the country and then safely hold it unless they commit 100% of their available forces to do so or unless they level the country which defeats the purpose of what they are doing. And that is not taking into account the fact that their economy basically only exists in theory at this point so they cannot actually afford any of this in the first place now. They will obviously have reserves of fuel and food to fall back on, but here very soon they will need to decide whether or not to save those reserves for the Russian people or the Russian army because they have decapitated their economy and purchasing power with this nonsense. There is no sense at all in wasting resources on a war that you can't realistically win. Though to be fair Putin has not made much sense up to this point.


Russia has firmly placed themselves into basically two outcomes.


1) They "win". They take Ukraine in theory and then they face a well armed and well funded insurgency in Ukraine where they will face trouble every step of the way. Any puppet government they put in place will either be killed or at the very least fought at every opportunity. Meanwhile at home their economy is in shambles and the populace is pissed.

2) They get a "exit plan" handed to them in order to save face and they keep their current gains and leave. However they will still face a disastrous economic situation at home, but will at least not have to waste lives and money on a pointless insurgency in Ukraine.



There is no "winning" this anymore. Putin has essentially killed Russia economically and militarily with this insanity. The only question now is if Russia kills him back or if he somehow holds onto the threads of power while he can until he dies.

 

[Rest]

A section is against a country not a citizen or their assets

You are incorrect. Individuals are sanctioned on a regular basis.

Individual sanctions are an important subcategory of economic sanctions, and an inextricable part of the global security and human rights regime that has informed international and national politics since the end of the Cold War. Shaping the international trend of individualizing accountability (Sikkink 2009), the United Nations, the United States, and the European Union, as the main global sanction senders, blacklist individuals to hold them accountable for the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), the instigation of armed conflict, the trafficking of narcotics, or the violation of human rights.

 

[Taxexemption]

That seems to make some optimistic appraisals and incorrect assumption on the nature of civilization and benefits of education. As well as the supply and technical support from first world nations is a bit different than what the Afghans got.
Your idea that civilization makes Ukrainian people domesticated is misanthropic at best.

I think it's a completely uncontroversial point that civilization domesticates people. Dudes working office or service sector jobs for the most part are not going to be picking up guns and fighting no matter what happens. They won't be waging guerilla war, and in the face of actual oppression would at best flee and at their worst would simply beg whoever was oppressing them to stop.

The kind of work we do, and the technology we have access to shapes us more than we shape it. You get too much of this stuff and you'll never get in a fight or do anything bold in your life. Except maybe you'll do something bold while you are trying to take a selfie.

I don't know what kind of education people get in Ukraine, but my college experience is that "education" is a combination of teaching you how to do certain tasks, and how to properly pretend to believe society's official narratives about itself.

 

[Kraz]

I think it's a completely uncontroversial point that civilization domesticates people. Dudes working office or service sector jobs for the most part are not going to be picking up guns and fighting no matter what happens. They won't be waging guerilla war, and in the face of actual oppressing would at best flee and at their worst would simply beg whoever was oppressing them to stop.

The kind of work we do, and the technology we have access to shapes us more than we shape it. You get too much of this stuff and you'll never get in a fight or do anything bold in your life. Except maybe you'll do something bold while you are trying to take a selfie.

I don't know what kind of education people get in Ukraine, but my college experience is that "education" is a combination of teaching you how to do certain tasks, and how to properly pretend to believe society's official narratives about itself.

From the numbers returning to Ukraine they are picking up guns and fighting.
Your appraisal doesn't seem to be based on facts but on a projection.

 

[Taxexemption]

From the numbers returning to Ukraine they are picking up guns and fighting.
Your appraisal doesn't seem to be based on facts but on an inner projection.

The reporting on what is happening in Ukraine is so shoddy I doubt everything I read based on how many stories I've seen change over the course of a day. No one will know how much of this is true for some time.

 

[Kraz]

The reporting on what is happening in Ukraine is so shoddy I doubt everything I read based on how many stories I've seen change over the course of a day. No one will know how much of this is true for some time.

The reporting is probably more accurate than your imagination.

 

[Moridianae]

I don't understand. If that is to be believed, Putin plans to institute Martial Law in Russia? That not only further exacerbates the economic pain, but I'm reasonably certain that requires military presence to maintain.

That would hurt them in this fight even more. I become more convinced by the day that something isn't right with him.

I wish my old man was still alive. As a doctor, I personally watched him accurately diagnose illnesses within the opening minutes on House M.D episodes over and over. He'd be able to corroborate those rumors and I'd believe his diagnosis, for certsin.

 

[Vestal]

Domestics forces have their own units. it's how they control the biggest country on the planet. and military units assigned for government officials are even further separated. almost every country has separation between military arenizations that 1/fight foreign forces . 2/domestic crime .3/domestic militancy against the state. 4/protect from internal regime coups.

Depends on the type of deployment, and what kind of civilian resistance will develop. I get your point though. I should have used different wording to make my point regarding its effects. It would be difficult to quantify its impact on the Russian effort from a logistical perspective.

Thinking about it a bit more....
Regardless the move, will have serious effects on the perception of Russia to the world. This would be moving past military conflict abroad. To adding a militarized conflict at the Russian capitol, against the Russian people. Not a lot of information on prior such declarations in Russia though.. So it would be hard to asses how common it has been used there. (From wiki it doesn't appear to be very common given how its worded)