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[Superkamikaze]

After COVID and cold war 2 it is clear that we cannot be so dependent on authoritarian countries like China and politicians needs to run on decoupling us from them.

This will never happen. Corporations will bend the knee and cater to ccp demands just to sell their products in the Chinese market, ie hollywood being a big one. Hollywood is willing to change culturally to appease the ccp. Meanwhile the ccp is producing films vilifying the west (US) and they’re hugely successful in China. It’s kind of crazy. There’s simply too much money to be made for meaningful change in regard to US dependency on China.

 

[SF Kosmo]

Honestly, had the consequences of this whole war been well understood in the same way, maybe it doesn’t happen.

Undoubtedly. This was not impulsive, it was a carefully considered move. It seems like Russia had been planning this move for at least 6 months or so. So when we see how unprepared Russia is, it tells us that Russia seriously miscalculated on the kind of resistance they would face, both from Ukrainians, and the international community at large. It's hard to imagine Russia would have taken this on if they realized what they were getting into. They really thought the Ukrainian citizenry would welcome them as reunifiers.

 

[Vestal]

Edit: should have put a /s at the end cause yeah I know why...

 

[Rest]

Because evil is real.

 

[Kraz]

It's seems like Russia is lowering their Standards lol

That's the nature of negotiations. Always ask for more to start.

 

[DeepBreath87]

Undoubtedly. This was not impulsive, it was a carefully considered move. It seems like Russia had been planning this move for at least 6 months or so. So when we see how unprepared Russia is, it tells us that Russia seriously miscalculated on the kind of resistance they would face, both from Ukrainians, and the international community at large. It's hard to imagine Russia would have taken this on if they realized what they were getting into. They really thought the Ukrainian citizenry would welcome them as reunifiers.

Not to mention I don’t think they believed the West would flood Ukraine with weapons and bring fairly isolating sanctions to bear this quickly, both through government entities and corporate ones. I think if you laid all this out ahead of time, it at least gives Putin pause.

But instead western leadership dithered around. It’s commendable that they got their act together after the fact. But it’s very possible at lot of lives could’ve been saved if they’d been able to get it together a month or two sooner.

 

[Nikodemos]

Being a degenerate asshole is a feature, not a bug, in the Russian decision-making chain.

 

[Hari Seldon]

This will never happen. Corporations will bend the knee and cater to ccp demands just to sell their products in the Chinese market, ie hollywood being a big one. Hollywood is willing to change culturally to appease the ccp. Meanwhile the ccp is producing films vilifying the west (US) and they’re hugely successful in China. It’s kind of crazy. There’s simply too much money to be made for meaningful change in regard to US dependency on China.

Hollywood is small potatoes compared to the hordes of cheap shit being sold in Target, Walmart, and Amazon. We can stop that with tariffs / taxes.

 

[Kraz]

If the Russian Army has realized wholly that the naZi problem is with Russian projectors then Ukraine may have a definite option to secure their lands while the army returns.

 

[MadAnon]

Edit: should have put a /s at the end cause yeah I know why...

BlackM1st desperately looking for Red cross and nazi connection right now.

 

[NoLootBoxDev]

Two fake stories coming out of Russia and Russian state media at this time

1) Ukraine military planning to blow up nuclear reactor in Kharkiv (as per TASS)
2) There are US built biological warfare labs in Odessa and Kyiv (as per Lavrov)

Cannot warrant the source "user from reddit called BlatantConservative." But can see this being real. Fuck Putin.

 

[M1chl]

 

[akimbo009]

Debating any outcomes regarding nuclear war is a waste of time. Everyone involved is aware that it is both suicidal and a foregone conclusion once the first weapons are fired. That’s why no one ever uses them because the consequences are immediate and well understood.

Honestly, had the consequences of this whole war been well understood in the same way, maybe it doesn’t happen. But leadership in the West was so wishy-washy in the lead up that it is possible Putin didn’t think anyone would really come at Russia too hard. You had Biden in the weeks just prior to this talking openly about disagreements among NATO members and how small incursions would be seen differently from full scale invasions. We essentially watched Russia amass an obvious invasion force on Ukraine’s border for months and waited for them to do anything before we showed them what the consequences would be. Maybe if we laid it out more clearly, Putin doesn’t do this. Of course maybe he was committed either way.

What? No one was wishy washy. NATO had minimal disagreement, and while you could argue sanctions could have pre-emptively applied to further dissuade action from Russia it would have made NATO/US the aggressor. Even then, there is no evidence it would have actually stopped Putin or just emboldened him since he'd have the moral high ground.

The years leading up to this what you say may be true but there was no time until now that Germany and others would go as far as they have. It is what it is.

 

[chromhound]

BlackM1st desperately looking for Red cross and nazi connection right now.

He was sent to the Shadow Realm

 

[SF Kosmo]

Not to mention I don’t think they believed the West would flood Ukraine with weapons and bring fairly isolating sanctions to bear this quickly, both through government entities and corporate ones. I think if you laid all this out ahead of time, it at least gives Putin pause.

But instead western leadership dithered around. It’s commendable that they got their act together after the fact. But it’s very possible at lot of lives could’ve been saved if they’d been able to get it together a month or two sooner.

Yeah, Russia has been fucking with Ukraine for like 8 years now and we never really cared because it was "just" Crimea or Donbas. It's easy to see why Putin would think the world didn't care about Ukraine.

 

[Sakura]

Russia abstained from attending the preliminary trial at the Hague. Shocking.

Putin probably doesn't give a shit or knew he couldn't stand a fight in the international judicial system unless he skewed or twisted the odds to his advantage. He needs to sway the rules or circumstances in his favour like he does on his own home turf.

As far as I am aware, Russia isn't a member of the International Court (for obvious reasons) so why would they show up at a trial?

 

[sw0mp_d0nk3y]

Two fake stories coming out of Russia and Russian state media at this time

1) Ukraine military planning to blow up nuclear reactor in Kharkiv (as per TASS)
2) There are US built biological warfare labs in Odessa and Kyiv (as per Lavrov)

Cannot warrant the source "user from reddit called BlatantConservative." But can see this being real. Fuck Putin.

QAnon Theory Says Trump, Putin Working Together to Destroy Fauci Labs

Members of a trucker convoy headed to Washington, D.C., are reportedly promoting the theory, which falsely claims that Fauci is operating a Ukraine-based bioweapons labs.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Mistake]

Two fake stories coming out of Russia and Russian state media at this time

1) Ukraine military planning to blow up nuclear reactor in Kharkiv (as per TASS)
2) There are US built biological warfare labs in Odessa and Kyiv (as per Lavrov)

Cannot warrant the source "user from reddit called BlatantConservative." But can see this being real. Fuck Putin.

I’m going to wait on the bio lab thing. I’ve been hearing about it for over a week now, but after all that happened with the US funding the wuhan lab, who the hell knows. First one is obviously fake.

 

[Doczu]

That's the nature of negotiations. Always ask for more to start.

Well, two can play the game.
This "offer" sounds as ludicrous as the first one that Ukraine presented to Putin.

I hope they keep on fighting and fucking the Russian forces so that their demands get softer.

 

[ParaSeoul]

What am I supposed to be looking at?

Ukraine soldiers carrying a nazi symbol badge

 

[Kraz]

Ukraine soldiers carrying a nazi symbol badge

What are we to draw from that?

 

[DeepBreath87]

What? No one was wishy washy. NATO had minimal disagreement, and while you could argue sanctions could have pre-emptively applied to further dissuade action from Russia it would have made NATO/US the aggressor. Even then, there is no evidence it would have actually stopped Putin or just emboldened him since he'd have the moral high ground.

The years leading up to this what you say may be true but there was no time until now that Germany and others would go as far as they have. It is what it is.

Why NATO countries can't agree on how to respond to Russia-Ukraine conflict

President Joe Biden on Thursday cleaned up comments he made a day earlier, to say any Russian incursion into Ukraine would lead to a severe and unified response by the United States and its allies. In Berlin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken also presented unity. But as Biden himself admitted...

www.pbs.org

President Joe Biden on Thursday cleaned up comments he made a day earlier, to say any Russian incursion into Ukraine would lead to a severe and unified response by the United States and its allies. In Berlin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken also presented unity. But as Biden himself admitted Wednesday, the transatlantic alliance is not unified over how to punish Russia. Nick Schifrin explains.

The West waited until people started dying to get serious. That was a mistake that may have cost lives. Maybe not. Maybe this was a done deal months ago. But being clear and firm about the consequences before the invasion had a much better chance of being a deterrent than trying to impose them after the fact. Russia is committed to this course now and it will take a ton of pressure to dissuade them.

 

[Doczu]

Ukraine soldiers carrying a nazi symbol badge

As stated earlier: this dude is probably from the Azov battalion/regiment/whatever they're called now.
They ARE extremely right wing, i'd say even neo-nazi in their worldview, badges and their hero's.
Good for them helping the civilians, but fuck them for their beliefs, and double so for their UPA love.

What are we to draw from that?

Just that they are dicks, but on the better side of this war.

 

[Nikodemos]

The West waited until people started dying to get serious. That was a mistake that may have cost lives. Maybe not. Maybe this was a done deal months ago. But being clear and firm about the consequences before the invasion had a much better chance of being a deterrent than trying to impose them after the fact. Russia is committed to this course now and it will take a ton of pressure to dissuade them.

The West didn't "wait". The vast majority of people simply didn't believe Putin would be off the rails so much as to invade directly. This includes a fair number of the Russian bodypolitic and lower services, who got informed on the morning of the invasion.

 

[GeorgioCostanzaX]

It’s interesting how many folks discuss or show concern regarding China’s military strength, when the real concern is their economic strength against the west if there’s ever a conflict between the two, assuming Taiwan will be a conflict. The US / West will probably have to stand by and just watch Taiwan be taken, any military action and the Chinese will hurt the west economically. The west can’t easily sanction China, sanctioning Russia was pretty pain free for the US all thing considered, sanctioning China would be brutal, total economic stand still / free fall in the west.

Economic interdependence is a double edged sword it makes war less likely but it also makes it easier for a bad actor like Xi to get away with horrific shit like the Uighur genocide and possibly invading Taiwan Scot free. Cut them out of swift and it hurts companies like Apple and virtually every other brand from Nike to PlayStation to Xbox manufactures their hardware in China. Ban imports and well…Christmas doesn’t happen. The problem isn’t necessarily even just OEMs it’s that the entire supply chain of component factories is in China too and many of those are not US companies who can just up and move a factory overseas.

 

[M1chl]

Alright one more:

 

[DeepBreath87]

The West didn't "wait". The vast majority of people simply didn't believe Putin would be off the rails so much as to invade directly. This includes a fair number of the Russian bodypolitic and lower services, who got informed on the morning of the invasion.

Didn’t believe what? He put 200,000 troops and equipment right on their border. Even if we thought it was probably posturing, that’s serious shit. Our leaders were openly talking about their uncertainty in terms of the response in public. That’s not good diplomacy. It’s one thing to talk behind closed doors, although it would be nice to be clear and unified among each other there too. But to not even present a unified front in public is pathetic. Why did we need to wait until tanks rolled across the border to take this seriously?

Even if what you say is true, that we underestimated the lengths to which Putin was willing to go, how is that not still a failure of leadership?

 

[Wildebeest]

The West waited until people started dying to get serious. That was a mistake that may have cost lives. Maybe not. Maybe this was a done deal months ago. But being clear and firm about the consequences before the invasion had a much better chance of being a deterrent than trying to impose them after the fact. Russia is committed to this course now and it will take a ton of pressure to dissuade them.

Western US/UK intelligence were the only ones who took the potential for invasion seriously. They were accused of being hysterical and trying to play some evil western game to profit from ramping up tensions. Everyone else said it just wouldn't happen. Including experts who "knew" that Russia wouldn't do it because it would be a disaster for them, apparently some of them deep in the FSB. Apparently it really was such a stupid thing to do that only Americans and British could understand that level of stupidity being given power.

 

[sankt-Antonio]

Is this legit? Wouldn't this be kind of a good deal considering the circunstances?

So that Russia gets to "help out" Russian Separatists with "special operations" in other Ukraine provinces in a year or two?

 

[Nikodemos]

Even if what you say is true, that we underestimated the lengths to which Putin was willing to go, how is that not still a failure of leadership?

Not saying it isn't. Heck, the head of the German intel service was trapped for a couple days in Ukraine after the invasion started (before managing to find a ride home), because he was dumb enough to dismiss US info as "alarmist".

But it simply didn't add up to a lot of people, because they made a small but fundamental mistake: they assumed Putin is a rational actor.

 

[DeepBreath87]

Western US/UK intelligence were the only ones who took the potential for invasion seriously. They were accused of being hysterical and trying to play some evil western game to profit from ramping up tensions. Everyone else said it just wouldn't happen. Including experts who "knew" that Russia wouldn't do it because it would be a disaster for them, apparently some of them deep in the FSB. Apparently it really was such a stupid thing to do that only Americans and British could understand that level of stupidity being given power.

And even the US was saying days before the invasion that if it was just a “small incursion”, maybe we wouldn’t need to respond to it. Of course they went out immediately to clean that up, but that level of sloppiness and uncertainty has an effect.

 

[DeepBreath87]

Not saying it isn't. Heck, the head of the German intel service was trapped for a couple days in Ukraine after the invasion started (before managing to find a ride home), because he was dumb enough to dismiss US info as "alarmist".

It’s not like I’m saying they should’ve imposed the sanctions prior to the invasion. But they should’ve clearly established what those sanctions were, at least amongst each other. And you probably can’t tell Russia ahead of time with any significant detail so they aren’t able to prepare for what the response would be, but you present a unified, clear picture that the response will be swift and severe. Basically you make Russia aware you have your shit together. We didn’t do that until the war had already started.

 

[Nikodemos]

There's also the associated issue of organizational rot and self-gaslighting within the Russian establishment.

Reports that painted Russia in a bad light would lead to demotions and reassignments to bumfuck Yakutia, so everybody twisted their data, to make the Russian forces look good on paper.

 

[akimbo009]

And even the US was saying days before the invasion that if it was just a “small incursion”, maybe we wouldn’t need to respond to it. Of course they went out immediately to clean that up, but that level of sloppiness and uncertainty has an effect.

No one is a telepath. We can't know for certain what Putin was going to do. Not even his own military commanders and troops it seems.

You're rewriting the narrative. The US/UK had exceptional intelligence, and threatened and - in the US - already had the sanctions pre-approved in the Congress/Senate. It had aligned the banking and financial institutions to conduct a biggest economic sanction in history before the invasion, and got global agreement to those actions. There were stipulations - wait until they cross a line - but the work done and since are quite remarkable. This on top of getting arms into Ukraine ahead of time in huge numbers, which has paid off dividends.

Even in this same thread we had people saying Ukraine was toast, days at best, and it was inevitable. But it hasn't been, in part to the prep that was done. Could they have been proactive or more aggressive in language - I suppose - but that could have peeled some support away or given Russia a stronger hand (especially with China or India) if the West had proactively ripped the banking system out from under Russia without them taking the first shot. It would have for sure undermined trust of those systems for all nations, which would've had huge long term consequences.

So other than playing a what if game or wanting to blame people in the west for Putin's individual crazy behavior, Ukraine and the west have about a good of hand as they could have expected or gotten.

 

[DeepBreath87]

No one is a telepath. We can't know for certain what Putin was going to do. Not even his own military commanders and troops it seems.

You're rewriting the narrative. The US/UK had exceptional intelligence, and threatened and - in the US - already had the sanctions pre-approved in the Congress/Senate. It had aligned the banking and financial institutions to conduct a biggest economic sanction in history before the invasion, and got global agreement to those actions. There were stipulations - wait until they cross a line - but the work done and since are quite remarkable. This on top of getting arms into Ukraine ahead of time in huge numbers, which has paid off dividends.

Even in this same thread we had people saying Ukraine was toast, days at best, and it was inevitable. But it hasn't been, in part to the prep that was done. Could they have been proactive or more aggressive in language - I suppose - but that could have peeled some support away or given Russia a stronger hand (especially with China or India) if the West had proactively ripped the banking system out from under Russia without them taking the first shot. It would have for sure undermined trust of those systems for all nations, which would've had huge long term consequences.

So other than playing a what if game or wanting to blame people in the west for Putin's individual crazy behavior, Ukraine and the west have about a good of hand as they could have expected or gotten.

I watched them dither in public. Watched them have to walk back statements and express uncertainty with regards to European allies. They did mobilize quickly, to their credit. But there was too much uncertainty in the days leading up to this when there should have been clear, firm leadership about what the West would do if Russia invaded Ukraine. It’s possible they did that behind closed doors. But that is not the picture they painted in public.

 

[IntentionalPun]

And even the US was saying days before the invasion that if it was just a “small incursion”, maybe we wouldn’t need to respond to it. Of course they went out immediately to clean that up, but that level of sloppiness and uncertainty has an effect.

What you are suggesting is about the exact opposite of what happened.

The US intelligence/media before this war started had an unprecedented amount of direct intelligence sharing ahead of time and warning towards Russia of consequences.

They also have/had a strategy of escalating sanctions based on what Russia did. You are using that to suggest THAT was responsible for what exactly? The invasion? The point of that strategy is to give Putin an exit, or give Putin a reason to not take the next step. In the mean time, Ukraine is/was being supplied with tons of military equipment and even volunteers. They could have quelled a "small incursion" if that's all Russia had done. They did a lot more than that, and thus immediately large amounts of sanctions were applied. An unprecedented amount.

 

[DeepBreath87]

What you are suggesting is about the exact opposite of what happened.

The US intelligence/media before this war started had an unprecedented amount of direct intelligence sharing ahead of time and warning towards Russia of consequences.

They also have/had a strategy of escalating sanctions based on what Russia did. You are using that to suggest THAT was responsible for what exactly? The invasion? The point of that strategy is to give Putin an exit, or give Putin a reason to not take the next step. In the mean time, Ukraine is/was being supplied with tons of military equipment and even volunteers. They could have quelled a "small incursion" if that's all Russia had done. They did a lot more than that, and thus immediately large amounts of sanctions were applied. An unprecedented amount.

I’m referring to this:

Why NATO countries can't agree on how to respond to Russia-Ukraine conflict

President Joe Biden on Thursday cleaned up comments he made a day earlier, to say any Russian incursion into Ukraine would lead to a severe and unified response by the United States and its allies. In Berlin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken also presented unity. But as Biden himself admitted...

www.pbs.org

 

[IntentionalPun]

I’m referring to this:

Why NATO countries can't agree on how to respond to Russia-Ukraine conflict

President Joe Biden on Thursday cleaned up comments he made a day earlier, to say any Russian incursion into Ukraine would lead to a severe and unified response by the United States and its allies. In Berlin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken also presented unity. But as Biden himself admitted...

www.pbs.org

This was all followed by a week+ straight of really strong comments. We also continued to release intelligence showing Russia lying about their plans, all out in the open.

There were an unprecedented amount of "eyes" on this invasion, all because of all of the statements by Western officials, which directly lead to unprecedented support for and calling for sanctions and responses.

Biden saying there would be some disagreements on what to do.. among what? Dozens of countries? Was hardly particularly earth shattering. In the end the sanctions were swift and brutal and in the days directly proceeding the war the warnings were loud and clear from the west.

 

[akimbo009]

I watched them dither in public. Watched them have to walk back statements and express uncertainty with regards to European allies. They did mobilize quickly, to their credit. But there was too much uncertainty in the days leading up to this when there should have been clear, firm leadership about what the West would do if Russia invaded Ukraine. It’s possible they did that behind closed doors. But that is not the picture they painted in public.

We watched the same story unfold. And a lone op ed from PBS isn't that helpful so you don't need to post multiple times.

There was public disagreement - Zelensky himself didn't want the US even saying that Russia could attack eminently in public. It's reasonable disagreements picking around the edge of the issue. On the core alignment of action, what sort of support Ukraine was getting and would continue to get, and what economic consequences Russia would face in the event of an invasion was super clear and remarkably well aligned. It was 40+ countries on an unpredictable timetable and they stuck the landing.

I don't think you really believe any action would have dissuaded Putin. No amount of tough guy rhetoric would have convinced him - he's delusional and inhaling his own vapors.

 

[Kraz]

Indian thinking has abstained from decisions.

 

[SoggyBiscuit]

Russell Brand has had a lot of good insight into the nuances of this whole charade. He had Yanis Varoufakis (some of you might know him from his time working as Valve's in-house economist!) on to discuss some potential ways out of this conflict.

I highly recommend Brand's channel, he's put out a fair few videos on the invasion of Ukraine.

 

[NoLootBoxDev]

Japan enters the chat!!!

Any ideas on this development?

 

[boo]

Meanwhile in Norway, we continue to trade with Russia. Why? Too much money to be earned for both Norway and Russia. Where? In the ocean outside Northern Norway. For how much? Values in the couple of billions in NOK, divide by nine to find USD, so several hundred million dollars worth of fish being caught by the Russian fishing fleet and sold to Norway.
Norway need the trade to keep people in jobs up north, so there you go. Sorry, Ukraine.

Of course, we support Ukraine so we take in some Ukranian women and kids and send their sons and husbands helmets and other trinkets.

So this economic isolation of Russia leaks like a sieve.

 

[Kraz]

Russell Brand has had a lot of good insight into the nuances of this whole charade. He had Yanis Varoufakis (some of you might know him from his time working as Valve's in-house economist!) on to discuss some potential ways out of this conflict.

I highly recommend Brand's channel, he's put out a fair few videos on the invasion of Ukraine.

Trinculo rolled up with Caliban!

 

[Hypereides]

As far as I am aware, Russia isn't a member of the International Court (for obvious reasons) so why would they show up at a trial?

I should correct myself, it was a hearing not a trial. That's my fault. A full membership of the ICJ isn't necessary for attendance, at least AFAIK. Russia appears to have some representatives signed in anyway.

They were called in by the UN, I believe, to investigate claims of a series of war crimes (bombings of civilians a.o.). They abstained due accusations of genocide. Apparently, that's the part that tickled them in the wrong place.

 

[Doczu]

Japan enters the chat!!!

Any ideas on this development?

Great! Someone please call the Italians to joing the game and switch teams mid in the match

 

[DeepEnigma]

So the Red Cross says the tentative evacuation route out of Mariupol was mined. The Russians really trying for that "Ukrainians are shooting upon their own people" thing, huh?

OBTW, regarding neo-nazis, check out this "fine specimen": Dmitry Utkin, head of Wagner Group.

He legit looks like a Wolfenstein villain

 

[Diatribe1974]

Watched a video the other day, one of those "What if nukes are launched. What happens?"

Well, let's hope it doesn't happen, it's one of those "Fuck, I thought Fallout was just a game!" Styled result. Seriously, the nukes going g off is only a little bad compared to the nuclear fallout and then that with the inevitable nuclear winter? Fuck me.

 

[Gp1]

 

[Kraz]

OBTW, regarding neo-nazis, check out this "fine specimen": Dmitry Utkin, head of Wagner Group.

His head's upside down and leaking wine.