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Russia begins Invasion of Ukraine
- Thread starter AfricanKing
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state of the art .Experts generally believe sanctions will work but differ on the extent.
Judy Asks: Can Sanctions End Russia’s War in Ukraine?
In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the West has imposed sanctions of an unprecedented scale. While these raise the cost of war for Moscow, on their own they are unlikely to change Putin’s calculations.
Personally, I don’t see the point of sanctions to be regime change so much as being able to cripple a nations ability to lead expensive expeditionary wars.
Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, Syria, and North Korea may still be authoritarian regimes but they’re also fucking poor and have archaic armies useful only for protecting the authoritarian from their own people.
Modern weapons need global supply chains to be cost-effective. Volunteer soldiers and labourers need to be paid.
Russia has already struggled to modernize its military and they can only do worse under sanctions.
Yoboman
Member
And what does Russia have to fear from NATO exactly? Oh yeah, having a real democracy, instead of a dictatorship
No reason Russia couldn't be just another powerful democratic country with friendly border relations like the rest of Europe 30 years after the cold war if it wasn't being run by ex KGB soviets
Amen, and on top of this , more access to technology to help Russian people grow and prosper.
FunkMiller
Member
If it continues the way it has, Russia will be more cut off from the world than even when the Iron Curtain was up. Yes, it’ll be able to pump its own gas, but the quality of life will be suitably fucking terrible.
FunkMiller
Member
Spot on. The ‘NATO is bad‘ narrative is exclusively parroted by Putin apologists and supporters.
Nico_D
Member
If only the government gave a single thought about the lives of regular Russian people. Who have fled through Finland to other parts of the Europe in thousands already. I guess less mouths to feed, more money to keep up the high standards of palace living.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
Thermobaric weapons are nuts.
belmarduk
Member
Nah, got my own gun.
In 2014, Putin invaded Crimea.. Now, he has invaded Donbass claiming he is liberating them. If Putin is placated he will simply make more demands. If you really want to go back into history, Russian society actually started in Kyiv. He would next claim that is his as well.
In case you haven't noticed, Ukraine is doing very well in defending itself and Russia does not have many victories to speak of in the two weeks since they launched this aggression toward Ukraine. It seems Russia is having a great deal of trouble keeping their vehicles fueled and their soldiers fed. Meanwhile, their economy is near total collapse. Putin looks foolish and weak while the Ukranian people are strong and resilient and in no mood to capitulate.
FunkMiller
Member
Are you saying that if someone holds you up with a gun, your response would be to also pull a gun? Because what do you honestly think will happen? The two don’t cancel each other out.
To be fair, this situation is more like a coward being armed with an AR 15 vs a hero armed with a catapult.
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Wildebeest
Member
It is very easy for people to say things such as how Putin should be given a way to save face, so he can back down, but what does that mean exactly? Do we just find a way to manufacture evidence so every single Q theory is proved 100% true, then manufacture a way to appear to collapse from our lack of "mystical vital energy" or whatever? Will Putin then become suddenly gentle and benevolent for the rest of his reign?
Prison Mike
Banned
5000f jesus
IDKFA
I am Become Bilbo Baggins
Giving Putin Eastern Ukraine would be unacceptable to many Ukrainians. It also means we're rewarding the invasion and letting Putin win.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
Surprisingly, one of the most informative and interesting Ukrainian interviews I've seen recently was conducted by Preston Jacobs, who is a popular Youtuber that analyzes the A Song of Ice and Fire series. He talked to a Ukrainian fan during one of his livestreams. She's smart, speaks English well, very insightful, and very pretty.
belmarduk
Member
I've had quite a bit of self-defense training which I will hopefully never have to use.
MidGenRefresh
*Refreshes biennially
Heard about that offer and people going for the lottery.
FunkMiller
Member
Me too, dude. If someone points a gun at me, they’re getting my wallet.
NoLootBoxDev
Member
More Russian high personnel to jail......Well we can expect more, hopefully this trigger a coup.
Maiden Voyage
Gold™ Member
What's your address?
BigBooper
Member
I'm sure it would be. Most political decisions are unacceptable to many people. It's possibly a reasonable decision though depending on what all is part of the deal.
I'm not comfortable with all the internet blowhards saying that Ukrainians should fight to the end. If they decide to, that's ultimately their decision and I'd think it was brave and all that. I don't think it would be a cowardly decision to not do that though. Just my opinion, not that it matters much because I'm not Ukrainian or Russian.
Sanctions are like a two edged sword, they don't remove the politicians from power and screws up population, but they cripple their military capacity, its either that or going at war. With such sanctions, Russia cannot afford this war against Ukraine for long, its even worse because that is a country much bigger in all terms than Georgia and Chechnya, and Russia had issues when warring with both countries. Even if they went full total war against Ukraine they could still lose.
Another issue, unlike most countries affected with sanctions, Russia had their population exposed to democracy and liberalism to some extent from the fall of USSR until like early 2010s, younger generations are considered opposition to Putin.
Another issue, unlike most countries affected with sanctions, Russia had their population exposed to democracy and liberalism to some extent from the fall of USSR until like early 2010s, younger generations are considered opposition to Putin.
Wildebeest
Member
If he is arresting the "loyalists" who enabled this, then perhaps he is signalling a reshuffle where potential coup organizers could get new jobs under him.
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Burning Fight
Neo Member
DeepBreath87
Banned
It’s really exactly this. It’s a war. Ukraine is not in a position where they can dictate perfectly acceptable terms. They have to choose between two very bad options. Either a protracted, bloody war on their own soil that is going to result in urban, guerrilla warfare combined with the heavy shelling of their cities until they are effectively rubble, or giving Putin concessions he finds acceptable so they he will stop. All Ukraine can do is either bleed the Russians, at the expense of their own lives or give Putin things he wants.
There is no other choice. Ukraine isn’t going to drive the Russians back without outside help that isn’t coming. The sanctions are punishing the Russians, but they won’t dissuade them from continuing this in the near term. Sanctions don’t really work that way, as others have pointed out. They’re better at limiting Russia’s ability to project power over the longer term, which I think these sanctions will do effectively.
Ukraine ultimately has to make the choice. Long, bloody war or concessions. Neither choice is good and neither is worse, in my opinion. Is just about what the people of Ukraine want. As an observer, I will support either choice they make without judgement.
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Lukaku's First Touch
Member
Not sure who will have the worst training, russians or syrian volonteers.
Raven117
Member
They are going to have to negotiate.
My bet: the two “independent” regions, recognition of Crimea, and assurances Ukraine won’t join NATO.
That’s a pretty good deal right there to stop the bloodshed
STARSBarry
Gold Member
That's already been put on the table and has been declined just this week.
By next week it might only be Crimea and then Nato, and then it might only be Crimea because the week before last it was nothing short of full surrender.
And you can say "that's a good deal" but only a Ukrainian will really be able to tell you if it's a "good deal" or not.
It's funny how people always list Russians exact demands as a "good deal". I am sure them agreeing to not join NATO after 2014 was a "good deal" at the time too, the delay ended up biting them in the ass sadly.
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IDKFA
I am Become Bilbo Baggins
Ukraine would then be losing more of their nation to Russia. Plus blocked from joining NATO (possibly the EU as well) so they'll still be under Russia's thumb.
I know we want to end the war. Civilians are being killed by Russians are a disgusting rate. However, I don't agree with letting Russia get what they want. What if they decided to then go into Finland? Should we let them just to prevent bloodshed and give them what they want? Where do you draw the line?
DeepBreath87
Banned
I’m curious what about this confrontation leads people to think Russia could or would be able to that. They’ve had around 5,000 troops die and probably 3x that many wounded in Ukraine over about 2 weeks. They could be looking at 40,000-50,000 total casualties if this goes on for another month or two. Not to mention these sanctions are going to really hamper their ability to do these sorts of things in the future. Especially if this stretches out for a long time.
Putin has been focused on Ukraine for 10 years. While this has been shocking, it isn’t surprising. I don’t think Finland is really under the same kind of threat.
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NoLootBoxDev
Member
What a beauty and I believe the Belarus people won't fall for this shit. Still, the puppet president will say it was not Russia, hope there is a coup.
QSD
Member
I watched those documentaries too a couple of years ago and remember back then coming away with a similar impression. I think Putin has become significantly more 'radicalized' in the intervening years. I do wonder if in the early years after the fall of the SU we could have done stuff differently so as to not end up with the same 'camps' and animosity. That said, Putin's descent into a regime of paranoia and political violence has made any ouvertures close to impossible now.
IDKFA
I am Become Bilbo Baggins
I don't believe the Russian have lost that many troops. I also don't believe the official Russian figure either. Propaganda is a valuable tool to break morale of the opposing side, a tool that the Ukrainians are using a lot better than the Russians.
DeepBreath87
Banned
Ukraine I think is saying something like 9,000 or 11,000 deaths for Russia. I don’t believe them either. The US I think says their number is 4,000-6,000. I am inclined to lean that way. Could be less. But I’d bet it is at least somewhere close to the lower end of that estimate. Usually the rate of wounded to dead is like 3:1 I believe. It’s obviously a rough estimate, but I think it’s realistic to think Russia has had upwards 12,000 casualties to this point. That’s a lot in 2 weeks of fighting. And if they try to go into the cities, that number will go way up unless they completely bulldoze Kiev with bombardments.
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Sakura
Member
They already have lost land to Russia though. They lost Crimea 8 years ago, and most of Donbas. They aren't getting these back. Even if there was regime change in Russia I don't see them giving up land they already control.
How many millions more people will flee the country? How many cities turned to rubble?
Give Russia Crimea and Donbas. Promise to not join NATO. Then focus on rebuilding the country. I'm sure the west will be more than happy to give aid. Putin won't be around forever, he is 70 years old this year. Maybe 10 years from now, Russia will not be in a position to stop Ukraine from joining NATO, and they can break the agreement.
I understand though that this is a difficult proposition for Ukraine, and ultimately it is their choice to make.
Russia doesn't have the military capability to just move on to country after country once the war with Ukraine is finished. They are going to have to replenish all their losses and worry about their economy, not to mention public unrest.
As for not wanting to let Russia get away with it, this is unfortunately the way war works. If other countries are not willing, or unable, to challenge Russia militarily, then Russia will get away with it.
Countries worried about Russian aggression need to be beefing up their military. You mention Finland, but Finland has only been spending like 1 to 1.5 % of its GDP on military. Compare that with the close to 4% that the US spends. If these countries had strong militaries, then Russia would think twice before invading.
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akimbo009
Gold Member
So capitulate, give up your people and land, and no longer have agency to determine what agreements and alliances your choose as a nation and call yourself lucky?
Yeah... That's some take. But no, leaving Crimea as was probably will be the alignment that's acceptable the rest isn't ok for anyone. It basically accepts that Russia can and will use military force with the threat of nukes freely and be rewarded. That will also be true for China, then anyone who has nukes - that destabilizes everything - which is Putin's purpose here of course, but your take is accepting that wholesale and that's some bullshit.
DeepBreath87
Banned
No it doesn’t. Russia is going to pay a heavy economic price for this. It will hamper their ability to project power for years. A message has clearly been sent that the west will feel some economic pain to punish this kind of activity. And the fact of the matter is, powerful countries can do this because that’s the nature of power. It allows you to dictate things to others. It’s not even a question of right or wrong. It’s a question of can or cannot. And Russia can in Ukraine right now.
The goal now for the world is to make it so they cannot in the future.
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Sakura
Member
As opposed to dragging this out and watching the country burn, only for Russia to eventually get what it wants anyway? Sometimes you need to cut your losses. Like I said though, ultimately it is up to Ukraine.
Russia already has Crimea. They didn't go to war just to get what they already had.
Russia isn't freely rewarded. They've lost a lot of equipment, and likely a lot of men. Not to mention the hits they've taken to the economy.
And you are right, it will be true for China. China is sitting there growing its power. In the near future, they will militarily be in a position to challenge the US in Asia.
It's the same reason they are able to get away with doing the shit they do to the Uyghurs, amongst other things. We are unwilling to force a confrontation, due to the costs of doing so, and so they get away with it.
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chromhound
Member
MidGenRefresh
*Refreshes biennially
I'm sure Turkey knows something...
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/ATQVZRNVIFJ7PDVMVLM5FWJNWQ.jpg)
www.reuters.com
Turkey moving Kyiv embassy to Chernivtsi -state media
Turkey is moving its embassy in Kyiv to the city of Chernivtsi amid reports of a planned Russian assault on the Ukrainian capital, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Tanju Bilgic was quoted as saying by state media on Friday.
www.reuters.com
GeorgioCostanzaX
Gold Member
In this situation though it would be like getting mugged outside of a police station with armed police loitering around on a donut break?
DeepBreath87
Banned
It’s more like I tell you I’m taking your wallet because I have a gun while you have a knife. Maybe you slashed my arm and I shot your leg. I’m still asking for your wallet and if you don’t give it to me, you can keep coming at me with the knife, but I can shoot your other leg or I can shoot to kill. You have to decide if your wallet is worth finding out what happens next.
And you’ve called the cops but they told you all they’ll do is get you a new knife if you want one.
MidGenRefresh
*Refreshes biennially
D
Deleted member 1159
Unconfirmed Member
Get ready for some horrific bullshit from Russia
funkygunther
Banned
The knife is what in your metaphor? Because it looks like that is some Ukranian aggression.. or is the knife the fake threat(s) that Putin tells his people?
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