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Russia begins Invasion of Ukraine

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kuncol02

Banned
There is plenty of analysis available of what would happen if Germany would spontaneously cut itself off from Russian gas imports. This is not only a question about "being poorer" but about severely crippling your own basic supply facilities to the point of not even having basic goods anymore. Germany would essentially collapse (socially and economically) and trigger a recession that would endanger all of the European Union. We would basically hand Putin the EU on a silver platter and weaken one of the main things that is keeping Russia contained right now.
And people who are responsible for that should be arrested, tried and hanged for treason. And I mean that.
 
One of them was in 2004, the other was in 2014. Nowhere near 2008. And the 2014 one was a result of Stasi Angie's refusal from 2008.

Revolutions and civil clashes don't happen in a vacuum and neither are they an on/off phenomenon.

The Orange revolution happened in 2004/2005 and smoldered till Yanukovych became Yushchenko's successor in 2010. It then gave cause for the revolution of dignity in 2014. Fact is, Ukraine was not a stable democracy in 2008 and unable to organize free and fair elections, which is the reason why the orange revolution happened in the first place. All of this was compounded by the rather precarious situation in the Donbas region.
 
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Nikodemos

Member
In a bitter ironic twist, rabidly totalitarian bullshit like that invalidates their official position that there were no massacres perpetrated by Russian troops.
They themselves say that part of the population will have to be massacred because it's too far gone into "Nazism".
Then again, Russians and logic have never been closely acquainted.
 

Tams

Member
This is exactly how Putin views the world and what gives him his internal validation to commit these atrocities. Russia wants a bigger stick, plain an simple.



You're the one who is naïve. History has shown that increasing military rearmament has only led to ever increasing conflict readiness. During the Cold War it was either global annihilation or mutual disarmament. Global trade, supranational cooperation and international interdependence are the things that gave rise to NATO and the EU in the first place. You know, the very things that are keeping Russia at bay for all the other member states in eastern Europe.



What? :messenger_tears_of_joy:
The quote isn't meant to test your Latin skills. You're obviously oblivious to the meaning and context of that quote, but I'm sure you can google it for yourself.



I'm sorry that is not how I remember the Cold War. Also, you guys need to look up political neo-realism vs. idealism :messenger_winking:
You're a lost cause and I can't be bothered reading any more of your comments after this.

You have failed to refute my points. Where is your argument that having a bigger stick and being willing to use it doesn't work? My side of the argument is sound.
  • No NATO members have been invaded. Non-NATO members have.
  • NATO has a much bigger stick.
  • Russia's rush to get a bigger stick has just led to complacency and inability to fund social programmes.
  • The USSR was outspent in the Cold War.
As for the Latin comment: yes it does matter. You should actually understand what you are quoting, otherwise it is just showboating. If you can't actually read Latin, then don't bother quoting it.
 
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Revolutions and civil clashes don't happen in a vacuum and neither are they an on/off phenomenon.

The Orange revolution happened in 2004/2005 and shouldered till Yanukovych became Yushchenko's successor in 2010. It then have cause for the revolution of dignity in 2014. Fact is, Ukraine was not a stable democracy in 2008 and unable to organize free and fair elections, which is the reason why the orange revolution happened in the first place. All of this was compounded by the rather precarious situation in the Donbas region.
You have no fucking idea what you are talking about. By your ridiculous logic you can call USA unstable democracy. The fact that Yanukovich became prime minister around that time anyway just shows that in Ukraine worked. Stop spreading bullshit over and over again to justify fucking over Ukraine for cheap gas.

EDIT: Actually you know what. Fuck you! I tend to overreact in this thread, but I really gave you a chance. There's so much evidence that EU fucked over Ukraine over and over and over again and your response is "Ukraine deserved it because it was not stable democracy!" I can acknowledge mistakes and errors. But this revisionist history is bullshit. This is just victim blaming and instead of learning lessons you are basically saying that Ukraine deserved it.
 
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You're a lost cause and I can't be bothered reading any more of your comments after this.

You have failed to refute my points. Where is your argument that having a bigger stick and being willing to use it doesn't work? My side of the argument is sound.
  • No NATO members have been invaded. Non-NATO members have.
  • NATO has a much bigger stick.
  • Russia's rush to get a bigger stick has just led to complacency and inability to fund social programmes.
  • The USSR was outspent in the Cold War.
As for the Latin comment: yes it does matter. You should actually understand what you are quoting, otherwise it is just showboating. If you can't actually read Latin, then don't bother quoting it.

Again, your neo-realistic worldview is exactly the what is fueling Putin's paranoia.

International cooperation is what has allowed the world to prosper these past few decades, not military intimidation. The Cold War almost brought us all to the brink of annihilation and that is where your dog eat dog worldview is leading is. Doesn't matter if you have military strength, without cooperation it will only make more enemies until your insatiable need for military prowess caused by your ever growing paranoia will become your ultimate downfall.
  • No EU members has been invaded. That's a pointless argument.
  • NATO is currently unable to act, without provoking a third world war.
  • Sanctions and the economic isolation of Russia are the modus operandi.
  • The West got lucky that USSR crumbled before we could blow us all up.
I can read Latin, but that's beside the point. Fact is, you are completely unaware of the origin of that quote and what it actually means. It's obvious you haven't read Hobbes, or Machiavelli and Clausewitz in that regard, otherwise you wouldn't feel the need to act so frikkin' insecure about it.

The way how you're outright dumping on the European Union and its construction of peaceful cooperation indicates that you're only here to spread euro-skepticism, nothing else. But you seem to forget that membership in the EU is what Ukraine wants, because it knows exactly that European cooperation leads to peace and prosperity.
 
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ever growing paranoia will become your ultimate downfall
You are in a thread where one "brotherly" nation fucked over and invaded another "brotherly" nation. It does not get any more fucked up than that. And you are telling people that they are paranoid?! Appeasement does not work with Russia. If you think this war is bad you can't even imagine what will happen if Russia wins this war!
 

akimbo009

Gold Member
Again, your neo-realistic worldview is exactly the what is fueling Putin's paranoia.

International cooperation is what has allowed the world to prosper these past few decades, not military intimidation. The Cold War almost brought us all to the brink of annihilation and that is where your dog eat dog worldview is leading is. Doesn't matter if you have military strength, without cooperation it will only make more enemies until your insatiable need for military prowess caused by your ever growing paranoia will become your ultimate downfall.
  • No EU members has been invaded. That's a pointless argument.
  • NATO is currently unable to act, without provoking a third world war.
  • Sanctions and the economic isolation of Russia are the modus operandi.
  • The West got lucky that USSR crumbled before we could blow us all up.
I can read Latin, but that's beside the point. Fact is, you are completely unaware of the origin of that quote and what it actually means. It's obvious you haven't read Hobbes, or Machiavelli and Clausewitz in that regard, otherwise you wouldn't feel the need to act so frikkin' insecure about it.

The way how you're outright dumping on the European Union and it's construction of peaceful cooperation indicates that you're only here to spread your euro-skepticism, nothing else. But you seem to forget that membership in the EU is what Ukraine wants, because it knows exactly that European cooperation leads to peace and prosperity.

I feel like I am back arguing on the internet in 1999. The hope springs eternal for Europe, and folks spouted the same stuff - more European than X country they are from, etc.

It's a fine proposition to say the European project has had some success, but you are way over selling its success. There's a lot of reasons Europe found continental peace, and economic integration is one of them but may not even be the leading reason. Even so, as a unified Economic bloc you can't extrapolate that level of success and apply to other conditions or geopolitics.

And we have learned a lot in a very short peroid, and you need to adjust. For example, the economic engagement with China hasn't actually moderated their behavior it's only fuel it's bellicose actions and sponsored genocide (sound familiar?). It should also be noted Europe, and Germany, we're economically deeply intertwined before WW2... But dictators are going to dictator.

You're also doing a ton of lift for the EU, which at best is a benign economic trading agreement, but has regularly been seen wanting - this is just yet another example. You sound like an American defending the second Iraq war - just all ideology and no reasoning. I say that as an American who also had to learn some hard lessons.
 

Sakura

Member
Zelensky is absolutely shitting on the UN :messenger_tears_of_joy:. He basically straight up told them to dissolve themselves if they're not going to do anything meaningful
Well he ain't wrong. The UN is pretty broken when it comes to anything a permanent member is doing. On the flip side though, if you remove those special benefits, then the most powerful countries have no reason to be in the UN, defeating the purpose. Not sure what you do.
 

Azurro

Banned
Again, your neo-realistic worldview is exactly the what is fueling Putin's paranoia.

International cooperation is what has allowed the world to prosper these past few decades, not military intimidation. The Cold War almost brought us all to the brink of annihilation and that is where your dog eat dog worldview is leading is. Doesn't matter if you have military strength, without cooperation it will only make more enemies until your insatiable need for military prowess caused by your ever growing paranoia will become your ultimate downfall.
  • No EU members has been invaded. That's a pointless argument.
  • NATO is currently unable to act, without provoking a third world war...

I don't understand your argument, you think singing kumbaya and holding hands is what keeps the peace? In order to develop an economy, you need security first. It is precisely the military potential of nations that brings peace and stability as external threats see less opportunity to fuck with them.

You propose that if everyone was super nice and friendly to Russia, that Putin wouldn't have been nostalgic for the USSR and paranoid towards NATO? That's completely wrong, if NATO didn't exist, Russia would have moved against the countries and territories they formerly occupied, as Putin is quoted again and again, that the dissolution of the USSR is one of the biggest tragedies in the century.

Europe failed Ukraine. Germany failed Ukraine and Europe by letting it get bribed with cheap gas.
 

Raven117

Gold Member
Zelensky is absolutely shitting on the UN :messenger_tears_of_joy:. He basically straight up told them to dissolve themselves if they're not going to do anything meaningful when it comes to Russia.
Yeah, its mostly pageantry, but its pageantry that needs to be followed. Diplomacy must take different forms in different ways over and over. The UN does help that. It may be somewhat futile in some regards, the mere fact that countries are together talking is a decent enough step.
 

Wildebeest

Member
Again, your neo-realistic worldview is exactly the what is fueling Putin's paranoia.
It was the so-called "realism" school of foreign relations that argued how the problem of relations with Putin was due to valid concerns about "NATO expansion". If you oppose the "realist" world-view, can you say that you think not expanding NATO to Ukraine to avoid conflict with Putin was a fatal miscalculation, which Ukrainian civilians are paying for?
 
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You're also doing a ton of lift for the EU, which at best is a benign economic trading agreement, but has regularly been seen wanting - this is just yet another example. You sound like an American defending the second Iraq war - just all ideology and no reasoning. I say that as an American who also had to learn some hard lessons.

I see that you guy's share no love for the EU, which is where most of the disagreement seems to be coming from. As a EU citizen, I think the EU is the only way forward if we want to keep peace on this continent. It's the reason why you have a UNITED STATES of America nowadays, because of that exact same reason!

Besides, what political structure or institution is not seen wanting? I'm the first to admit the EU's many faults, but that is not argument to negate its overall advantages. Otherwise why would eastern European countries want to join the union?

Reason dictates that you should do everything possible to foster peaceful coexistence. Resorting back to violence is only justified if everything else fails. What other reason is there for the U.S. and NATO to withhold their military intervention until now?
You all know the answer already.

I don't understand your argument, you think singing kumbaya and holding hands is what keeps the peace?

It's almost as if you guys don't even bother to read my comments. Nobody is suggesting a purely idealistic world.
If you want peace you need to make war more costly, is hardly a kumbaya kind of worldview.

Robert Schuman and the founders of Europe can hardly be described as hippies. This is just preposterous!

Europe failed Ukraine. Germany failed Ukraine and Europe by letting it get bribed with cheap gas.

Putin has failed Ukraine and nobody else!
We fail Ukraine if we don't provide the necessary help and lack the courage to do what is reasonably necessary.
 
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NickFire

Member
Well he ain't wrong. The UN is pretty broken when it comes to anything a permanent member is doing. On the flip side though, if you remove those special benefits, then the most powerful countries have no reason to be in the UN, defeating the purpose. Not sure what you do.
What's the point of a club that doesn't do anything because none of the big members want to do anything?
 

Alx

Member
What's the point of a club that doesn't do anything because none of the big members want to do anything?
Well it's still useful in cases that don't directly hurt one of the big members interests. So it's not entirely pointless, but the veto right of the big 5 is still a major weakness that prevents UN from adressing the biggest issues.
 

Sakura

Member
What's the point of a club that doesn't do anything because none of the big members want to do anything?
On situations where the permanent members agree, or at least aren't directly opposed, it is useful. For example things like peace keeping missions, aid to countries, climate change, etc.
It is also a useful forum for dialogue.
At the very least, it is better than not having a UN.
 

NickFire

Member
On situations where the permanent members agree, or at least aren't directly opposed, it is useful. For example things like peace keeping missions, aid to countries, climate change, etc.
It is also a useful forum for dialogue.
At the very least, it is better than not having a UN.
In theory perhaps. But in practice I'm not so sure its productive in the least bit. Any large scale successes we can point to that did not involve US military getting actively involved?
 

Tams

Member
You have no fucking idea what you are talking about. By your ridiculous logic you can call USA unstable democracy. The fact that Yanukovich became prime minister around that time anyway just shows that in Ukraine worked. Stop spreading bullshit over and over again to justify fucking over Ukraine for cheap gas.

EDIT: Actually you know what. Fuck you! I tend to overreact in this thread, but I really gave you a chance. There's so much evidence that EU fucked over Ukraine over and over and over again and your response is "Ukraine deserved it because it was not stable democracy!" I can acknowledge mistakes and errors. But this revisionist history is bullshit. This is just victim blaming and instead of learning lessons you are basically saying that Ukraine deserved it.
Just ignore the idiot and move on. It's not worth it and we aren't going to change his mind. If we all just ignore him then there's no engagement for him to spread his deranged fantasies.
 

EviLore

Expansive Ellipses
Staff Member
What reality? That Putin betrayed Europe and its peace in his Hobbesian pursuit of power?
You're goddamn right about that!
That in complex scenarios there are always multiple relevant factors. Had Ukraine been allowed into NATO as the US pushed for, this war would have been averted entirely. Had EU leaders not taken such a consistently weak and complicit position, Putin would not have become so emboldened.
 
That in complex scenarios there are always multiple relevant factors. Had Ukraine been allowed into NATO as the US pushed for, this war would have been averted entirely. Had EU leaders not taken such a consistently weak and complicit position, Putin would not have become so emboldened.

Or it would have started prematurely. Fact is, we don't know. Fact is, Ukraine was a struggling democracy that was severely undermined by Russia. Fact is, after the fall of the Wall, détente was the only way forward.
Are you seriously suggesting that Putin started this war because Europe did economic trade with Russia? Then why did the U.S. pursue their economic relations if that were the case?

The biggest mistake here was trusting Russia too much. In hindsight that was wrong, in hindsight!
For all other eastern European countries, that exact same trust led them to join the EU and strengthen the West against Russia.

You are right, there are multiple relevant factors, unfortunately such a nuanced discussion is apparently not welcome here. What seems to be in order here are outright personal insults, by the same couple of people who are outright obsessing over this thread.

Edit: That last part was uncalled for. I apologize.
 
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TwinB242

Member
Russia accusing Ukranians of killing Russians like the Nazis did just a few days after Bucha....you can't make this up.
 
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NickFire

Member
Or it would have started prematurely. Fact is, we don't know. Fact is, Ukraine was a struggling democracy that was severely undermined by Russia.
Are you seriously suggesting that Putin started this war because Europe did economic trade with Russia? Then why did the U.S. pursue their economic relations if that were the case?

The biggest mistake here was trusting Russia too much. In hindsight that was wrong, in hindsight!
For all other eastern European countries, that exact same trust led them to join the EU and strengthen the West against Russia.

You are right, there are multiple relevant factors, unfortunately such a nuanced discussion is apparently not welcome here. What seems to be in order here are outright personal insults, by the same couple of people who are outright obsessing over this thread.
Not in hindsight. Not even a little. And nuanced discussion (figuratively) got us here. It's one of Putin's best friends right now.
 
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Sakura

Member
In theory perhaps. But in practice I'm not so sure its productive in the least bit. Any large scale successes we can point to that did not involve US military getting actively involved?
I'm not sure what you would define as a large scale success, but there have been plenty of peacekeeping missions that don't include the US getting directly involved.
Of course, not all of them have been a success, but I still think they do play an important role.
 

akimbo009

Gold Member
Or it would have started prematurely. Fact is, we don't know. Fact is, Ukraine was a struggling democracy that was severely undermined by Russia. Fact is, after the fall of the Wall, détente was the only way forward.
Are you seriously suggesting that Putin started this war because Europe did economic trade with Russia? Then why did the U.S. pursue their economic relations if that were the case?

The biggest mistake here was trusting Russia too much. In hindsight that was wrong, in hindsight!
For all other eastern European countries, that exact same trust led them to join the EU and strengthen the West against Russia.

You are right, there are multiple relevant factors, unfortunately such a nuanced discussion is apparently not welcome here. What seems to be in order here are outright personal insults, by the same couple of people who are outright obsessing over this thread.

No one should have ever trusted Putin. The amount of trust Europe did give to Russia and Putin that the US and others constantly warned about is gobsmacking. It's revisionist to say otherwise.
 

NickFire

Member
I'm not sure what you would define as a large scale success, but there have been plenty of peacekeeping missions that don't include the US getting directly involved.
Of course, not all of them have been a success, but I still think they do play an important role.
That list by itself does not show which countries sent military on these missions. I'm not trying to be critical of your efforts though. I'm genuinely asking myself what's the point of it and unable to think of anything it has done where the US did not get involved militarily anyway.
 
No one should have ever trusted Putin. The amount of trust Europe did give to Russia and Putin that the US and others constantly warned about is gobsmacking. It's revisionist to say otherwise.

Not in hindsight. Not even a little.

You all act like you saw this coming twenty years ago. Don't be ridiculous.
You had plenty of dirty ties with Russia, including your presidents and presidential candidates.

What should have happened was shutting off Russian gas imports after the annexation of the Krim. What should have happened, were stricter international sanctions coming from every country, Europe and U.S. included.
To continue like nothing happened, was a big mistake (even if Europe is in the middle of a fundamental energy transition towards renewables).

You all act like I'm the enemy here, for no reason at all other than sharing a European perspective on things. I'm not the enemy, I want Putin to pay for what he did, let me make this very clear.
 
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NickFire

Member
You all act like you saw this coming twenty years ago. Don't be ridiculous.
You had plenty of dirty ties with Russia, including your presidents and presidential candidates.

What should have happened was shutting off Russian gas imports after the annexation of the Krim. What should have happened, were stricter international sanctions coming from every country, Europe and U.S. included.
To continue like nothing happened, was a big mistake (even if Europe is in the middle of a fundamental energy transition towards renewables).
I'll readily agree that many people in the US were super duper hokey pokey happy with the pathways that lead to this calamity. Criticize them to hell and back because they deserve it. But yes, many people in the US have seen the writing on the wall for years. You can even see videos of one presidential candidate getting mocked for it by the guy who won and had the current do nothing as his VP.
 

akimbo009

Gold Member
You all act like you saw this coming twenty years ago. Don't be ridiculous.
You had plenty of dirty ties with Russia, including your presidents and presidential candidates.

What should have happened was shutting off Russian gas imports after the annexation of the Krim. What should have happened, were stricter international sanctions coming from every country, Europe and U.S. included.
To continue like nothing happened, was a big mistake (even if Europe is in the middle of a fundamental energy transition towards renewables).

It's not been that hard to see what's been going on. The US elections were completely meddled with, regardless of outcome. It has been known Russia has been destabilizing the US for the better part of a decade - really more cause it didn't really stop after the cold war. Russia poisoned and murdered people on UK soil. It's not a mystery, so yeah... 20+ years sounds about right.

The fact that Russia is in Europe's backyard makes a lot of inaction squarely on them - unless you want the US to be an ever present hegemonic presence. Considering your pro-EU stance I imagine you don't want that - so either take responsibility or someone will tell you what to do.
 
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Sakura

Member
That list by itself does not show which countries sent military on these missions. I'm not trying to be critical of your efforts though. I'm genuinely asking myself what's the point of it and unable to think of anything it has done where the US did not get involved militarily anyway.
Well I'm not sure why the US shouldn't be involved in a UN peacekeeping mission, considering they are part of the UN.
As an example though, there is the UN mission in Sierra Leone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Mission_in_Sierra_Leone#Troop_Contributions (or also here https://peacekeeping.un.org/mission/past/unamsil/facts.html) which as far as I am aware, did not involve US military.
 

Nikodemos

Member
I see that you guy's share no love for the EU, which is where most of the disagreement seems to be coming from. As a EU citizen, I think the EU is the only way forward if we want to keep peace on this continent.
I'm a Eurofederalist, and I'll tell you plainly, if the EU doesn't do something drastic about addressing its fundamental design issues, it'll bloody buckle.
It took them 20 damn years to get a unified EU prosecutor's office. And it's bloody optional! Like, what the fuck, when did justice become optional?!?

Besides, what political structure or institution is not seen wanting? I'm the first to admit the EU's many faults, but that is not argument to negate its overall advantages. Otherwise why would eastern European countries want to join the union?
1. Money; 2. money; 3. money. Most Eastern European countries were complete basket cases, and several of them went off the reservation mega hard. I should know, I live in one. Many of the Eastern politicians said to themselves "eh, we'll bullshit them somehow, think of all the money we'll get".

Putin has failed Ukraine and nobody else!
We fail Ukraine if we don't provide the necessary help and lack the courage to do what is reasonably necessary.
LOLNO. That's like saying a certain art school reject failed the Jews.
Putin didn't "fail" the Ukrainians. Putin doesn't think such a people should even exist in the first place.
 
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Klik

Member
Seems that Russia is just regrouping and gonna take Donbass region and probably south region Odessa.

Unfortunately it seems that this war is gonna drag for months and months with no peace deal in sight..
 

Fenix34

I remove teeth
I remember one more. Guy support Ukraine parents don't. He ask them to leave this place (help him) those people became angry on him and they say about to call police on him and trying to dropping him off.
 
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