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Russia begins Invasion of Ukraine

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akimbo009

Gold Member
It’s war of attrition. Russia willl fight till 500,000 soldiers are KIA if history is anything to go by.

But Putin might push that number to 1,000,000. Ukraine will have to maintain a 3:1 ratio of KIA and 20:1 armor kill ratio to win the war of attrition against Russia.

But the North is looking like its turning into a see-saw battle now. Russia is gaining some ground lost and are building up a large force at the Bolgorod border region for a push to surround the offensive. Probably later in the winter when the ground freezes over.

This war will last until 2025 when Trump gets into office and pulls support for Ukraine unfortunately.

Russian army is showing some signs of actual tactics now. With how they are withdrawing forces in Kherson. Kherson will be a long ass battle to take the city. Since Ukraine won’t use the level the city with artillery then advance tactic that Ruscists was using in Mariupol

Nope. They may keep letting themselves get killed, but they are definitely getting low on equipment and vehicles.

And there is no "see-saw" evidence around any northern front. It's basically Ukraine slowly moving forward while Russia conscripts die 1k a day. And now, the west won't run out of bullets.

You always got misinformation and a Russian tilt to your comments.
 

Tams

Gold Member
Nope. They may keep letting themselves get killed, but they are definitely getting low on equipment and vehicles.

And there is no "see-saw" evidence around any northern front. It's basically Ukraine slowly moving forward while Russia conscripts die 1k a day. And now, the west won't run out of bullets.

You always got misinformation and a Russian tilt to your comments.

Yeah, Indo has been wrong quite a few times now.

I'm sure if they're one of the 'better' trolls, or just a contrarian. If the former, then I hope they pay you more than the normal obvious ones, I IndoAssassin . With what money I don't know though.
 

Bitmap Frogs

Mr. Community
It’s war of attrition. Russia willl fight till 500,000 soldiers are KIA if history is anything to go by.

But Putin might push that number to 1,000,000. Ukraine will have to maintain a 3:1 ratio of KIA and 20:1 armor kill ratio to win the war of attrition against Russia.

Nah.

Russian economy is slowly but surely taking hits and the government is already burning cash to keep things afloat. According to their own accounting (which you can trust, or not) they had 634B march 7 and as of october 7 they'down to 548. So that's a cool 100B down in 6 months. We know that around 300B of those are frozen so that means they're left with 248 to play with. A substantial amount, no doubt, but at the current burn rate that's about 70 weeks left.

The 2023 budget has some interesting nuggets, like an expected deficit of 50 billion dollars (which they say will be covered by borrowing, sure lol), a drop of around 9% on oil and gas outputs, etc. The general feeling is it is an optimistic budget (as in reality will be worse), but who knows.

Anyways my point is, russia can't sustain the war effort for as long as you think.
 

Sakura

Member
Is Russia really going to abandon Kherson?
I would've figured they'd try to hold it as much as they can. If they can't hold Kherson why would they be able to hold anything?
 

Tams

Gold Member
Is Russia really going to abandon Kherson?
I would've figured they'd try to hold it as much as they can. If they can't hold Kherson why would they be able to hold anything?

In the end yes. Though not without throwing everything they can at it after the Ukrainian forces take it. Why else would Putin now be trying to force everyone there to leave? He wants to flatten it like Mariupol, but there are currently no Ukrainian forces there to 'justify' doing so yet.

They've also got the Dnipro to act as their next defence line and have had time to build up defences there. That's a very sound defence strategy. Of course, that won't take the prestige sting out of losing Kherson, one of the very few big cities they managed to take.

Does that mean that they're new defences are going to be enough? No. Perhaps for the winter, that's if their underfed, underequipped soldiers don't all freeze to death.
 
Still can do the same, dumby pants.

No thanks, protesting is a waste of time. Even if I did, it wouldn't accomplish anything. I am too busy making good money, but you obviously have too much time on your hands and care about other people's issues and have the audacity to tell others what to do. Now kindly, back in the corner where you belong. Buh-bye, I need to go back to counting my stacks.
 
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Nope. They may keep letting themselves get killed, but they are definitely getting low on equipment and vehicles.

And there is no "see-saw" evidence around any northern front. It's basically Ukraine slowly moving forward while Russia conscripts die 1k a day. And now, the west won't run out of bullets.

You always got misinformation and a Russian tilt to your comments.

Yeah, Indo has been wrong quite a few times now.

I'm sure if they're one of the 'better' trolls, or just a contrarian. If the former, then I hope they pay you more than the normal obvious ones, I IndoAssassin . With what money I don't know though.


His map showing Russia gained back a little bit of ground in the North. Also he states Ikraine is sustaining just as heavy losses as Russia in the North.

My guess is due to the mud season it has fucked up Ukrainian tactics as well as they can’t blitzkrieg like they were before. And it’s slowing down their resulting abilities.

One of the Ukrainian commanders is being court marshalled now for abandoning his units. Bunch of Ukrainian soldiers ended up surrounded. With no order to retreat.
 
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No thanks, protesting is a waste of time. Even if I did, it wouldn't accomplish anything. I am too busy making good money, but you obviously have too much time on your hands and care about other people's issues and have the audacity to tell others what to do. Now kindly, back in the corner where you belong. Buh-bye, I need to go back to counting my stacks.

Ow_the_edge.jpg
 

TwinB242

Member
The war won't drag on for years. Putin is still betting on the winter being the turning point, either through an energy crisis in Europe or forcing Ukraine to capitulate by destroying their infrastructure and freezing people to death. Once neither of those options end up working he'll have no real cards left. Lets not forget that the war is already deeply unpopular in Russia, with the majority of people in the big cities (like Moscow & St Petersburg) wanting peace (even Russian propagandists have admitted to this). Putin's reputation is also very important to him so watching his popularity and support decrease over time will not sit well with him. When you combine this with the unsustainable equipment & personnel losses the Russian army is experiencing, there is simply no way he can afford to allow to extend the war without torpedoing Russia and destroying his own legacy he's spent decades building.
 
Well said, any Russian not out protesting or doing something, anything is a fucking coward in my book
You want me to go protest in my hometown of South Florida in Miami next to hot Cuban chicks while y
holding a fucking sign and yelling? Kk. I don't even live in Russia anymore, I left that trash country in 2000 due to anti-senitism and other shit.
 
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TwinB242

Member
Well said, any Russian not out protesting or doing something, anything is a fucking coward in my book

Prison is one thing but there have been reports of protesting men being immediately hit with mobilization orders. I understand why they would be silent taking that into consideration.

But it makes no sense that the women aren't out in the streets in massive numbers, especially when its their sons, fathers, and brothers being massacred in Ukraine.
 
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Prison is one thing but there have been reports of protesting men being immediately hit with mobilization orders. I understand why they would be silent taking that into consideration.

But it makes no sense that the women aren't out in the streets in massive numbers, especially when its their sons, fathers, and brothers being massacred in Ukraine.
Thanks for the back up. These idiots are making assumptions about me and think I still live there. Just because I am Russian and from Russia doesn't mean I still live there.
 
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Kerotan

Member
Nah.

Russian economy is slowly but surely taking hits and the government is already burning cash to keep things afloat. According to their own accounting (which you can trust, or not) they had 634B march 7 and as of october 7 they'down to 548. So that's a cool 100B down in 6 months. We know that around 300B of those are frozen so that means they're left with 248 to play with. A substantial amount, no doubt, but at the current burn rate that's about 70 weeks left.

The 2023 budget has some interesting nuggets, like an expected deficit of 50 billion dollars (which they say will be covered by borrowing, sure lol), a drop of around 9% on oil and gas outputs, etc. The general feeling is it is an optimistic budget (as in reality will be worse), but who knows.

Anyways my point is, russia can't sustain the war effort for as long as you think.
If this drags on another 12 month's of all out war Russian economy will be in the dumps.

Not to mention the loss economically of so many Russians leaving the country and of course hundreds of thousand of men of working age either dead or badly wounded.

If Ukraine makes it through the winter relatively ok Russia is fucked.
 
Latest footage I been watching includes more Ukranian ammo depots getting destroyed. Other then that I read Ukraine is on par with Ethiopia when it comes to high risk of food security according to the Economist .


Edit: new US headquarters will appear in Germany to help Ukraine with "arms supplies to the conflict zone in the long term"
 
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The Armed Forces of Ukraine set off "fireworks" at the headquarters of the occupiers in the Kherson region: the losses were revealed​

unian.ua/war/zs...

"Tonight, as a result of the fireworks set off in one of the headquarters of the Russian occupiers in the Kherson region, the estimated losses of the occupiers amounted to: 14 - 200, 40 - 300. Believe in the soldiers! Believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine," Shtefan said.

Alejandro Jodorowsky Fun GIF by Endless Poetry
 

MrA

Member
If this drags on another 12 month's of all out war Russian economy will be in the dumps.

Not to mention the loss economically of so many Russians leaving the country and of course hundreds of thousand of men of working age either dead or badly wounded.

If Ukraine makes it through the winter relatively ok Russia is fucked.
Risk of total Russian collapse is troubling as there are mountains of weapons and dozens of nuclear going completely Rouge
Hopefully the oligarchy will given putin the stalin treatment soon as I can't believe they're cool with the hole he's putting them in
 
According to The Guardian newspaper Joe Biden and Boris Johnson deliberately made sure peace talks would not happen.

Latest footage I been watching includes more Ukranian ammo depots getting destroyed. Other then that I read Ukraine is on par with Ethiopia when it comes to high risk of food security according to the Economist .


Edit: new US headquarters will appear in Germany to help Ukraine with "arms supplies to the conflict zone in the long term"

cough up these sources
 

akimbo009

Gold Member
Thanks for the back up. These idiots are making assumptions about me and think I still live there. Just because I am Russian and from Russia doesn't mean I still live there.

You brought up the fact you were Russian In solidarity with the Russian who actually was from there. So basically you're just derailing shit, good to know.
 

Ironbunny

Member
According to The Guardian newspaper Joe Biden and Boris Johnson deliberately made sure peace talks would not happen.
You mean this? If this is what you mean it is a bit different then your topic.


“I think it’s very hard to see how the Ukrainians can negotiate with [Russian president Vladimir] Putin now, given his manifest lack of good faith, and his strategy, which is evident, which is to try to engulf and capture as much of Ukraine as he can and then perhaps to have some kind of negotiation from a position of strength, or even to launch another assault on Kyiv,” he said.


“I really don’t see how the Ukrainians can easily sit down and come to some kind of accommodation,” he added. “How can you negotiate with a crocodile when it’s got your leg in its jaws?”

There should be a decades of ban for ruZZians entering the west.
 
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Ozriel

M$FT
It’s war of attrition. Russia willl fight till 500,000 soldiers are KIA if history is anything to go by.

But Putin might push that number to 1,000,000. Ukraine will have to maintain a 3:1 ratio of KIA and 20:1 armor kill ratio to win the war of attrition against Russia.

But the North is looking like its turning into a see-saw battle now. Russia is gaining some ground lost and are building up a large force at the Bolgorod border region for a push to surround the offensive. Probably later in the winter when the ground freezes over.

This war will last until 2025 when Trump gets into office and pulls support for Ukraine unfortunately.

Russian army is showing some signs of actual tactics now. With how they are withdrawing forces in Kherson. Kherson will be a long ass battle to take the city. Since Ukraine won’t use the level the city with artillery then advance tactic that Ruscists was using in Mariupol

Russia can't sustain warfare to these numbers. They're certainly running out of top drawer weaponry to arm them with. Mobs will probably yank Putin out of his bunker if the death toll ever approached 500k (corresponding to millions of casualties)
There's no indication of any see-saw status in the North. Russian counter-offensives are small scale, are struggling and are barely taking any territory. Their attempts to take Pavlivka and Bakhmut have ended in costly failures.

There's also no major credible threat of a ground offensive from Belgorod region. They've thrown a lot of cannon fodder to the front, but these are masses of untrained, poorly equipped mobilized civilians.

Much of this sounds like wishful thinking.
 

akimbo009

Gold Member
Russia can't sustain warfare to these numbers. They're certainly running out of top drawer weaponry to arm them with. Mobs will probably yank Putin out of his bunker if the death toll ever approached 500k (corresponding to millions of casualties)
There's no indication of any see-saw status in the North. Russian counter-offensives are small scale, are struggling and are barely taking any territory. Their attempts to take Pavlivka and Bakhmut have ended in costly failures.

There's also no major credible threat of a ground offensive from Belgorod region. They've thrown a lot of cannon fodder to the front, but these are masses of untrained, poorly equipped mobilized civilians.

Much of this sounds like wishful thinking.

There are some situations where defense lines are falling back after sustained pushes by Russia. But these are small shifts, and Russia is taking large number of losses to take positions. But anytime Russia consolidates they collapse with even larger loses. It's not sustainable.

These legends are an example of such stories (there are other videos where pockets of 5 - 10 Ukrainians are holding off large forces, and then being forced to fall back to the next defensive layer).

 
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