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[BlackTron]

I bet Chinese fireworks even functions better

Yeah I mean I wouldn't take this as instant proof that we have just hard countered all hypersonic missiles. It would be more exciting if a more competent foe had launched it.

There's a part of me that hopes Russia's missile was actually top-tier tech, because that would mean Patriot system can counter the best out there, which is a positive thing for the world.

 

[sinnergy]

Yeah I mean I wouldn't take this as instant proof that we have just hard countered all hypersonic missiles. It would be more exciting if a more competent foe had launched it.

There's a part of me that hopes Russia's missile was actually top-tier tech, because that would mean Patriot system can counter the best out there, which is a positive thing for the world.

Well I think Russia, doesn’t have Hi-tech.. we all thought that, but what this war showed. Their tech is stuck in the 60s ,70s.

 

[6502]

Yeah I mean I wouldn't take this as instant proof that we have just hard countered all hypersonic missiles. It would be more exciting if a more competent foe had launched it.

There's a part of me that hopes Russia's missile was actually top-tier tech, because that would mean Patriot system can counter the best out there, which is a positive thing for the world.

USA / allies will soon have the ability to patch satellite / newer detection methods into their systems to nullify the height advantage of hypersonic missiles.

If this missile was functioning correctly, this is huge news and could help swing investment from rushing our own hypersonics and more towards detection / defence.

 

[Apocryphon]

You can bet USA / allies will soon have the ability to patch satellite / newer detection methods into their systems to nullify the height advantage of hypersonic missiles.

It is undeniable that if this missile was functioning correctly, this is huge news and could help swing investment from rushing our own hypersonics and more towards detection / defence. Personally i'd rather have a greater chance to survive than retaliate.

It’s an air launched ballistic missile, it isn’t really hypersonic. What has puzzled me in this way is that Russia hasn’t used ICMB’s with conventional warheads. Ukraine wouldn’t be able to stop those in the terminal phase as they impact travelling at 7km/s. I guess it would be prohibitively expensive to use them en mass and they aren’t especially accurate so would cause more civilian deaths. I had expected them to leverage ICBMs and high altitude carpet bombing since they have the capacity, but you have to wonder what their actual stockpiles look like now. They do appear to be holding back in some areas in case of a wider conflict, but if you are losing your best trained personnel in the process, what’s the point?

 

[DaleinCalgary]

It’s an air launched ballistic missile, it isn’t really hypersonic. What has puzzled me in this way is that Russia hasn’t used ICMB’s with conventional warheads. Ukraine wouldn’t be able to stop those in the terminal phase as they impact travelling at 7km/s. I guess it would be prohibitively expensive to use them en mass and they aren’t especially accurate so would cause more civilian deaths. I had expected them to leverage ICBMs and high altitude carpet bombing since they have the capacity, but you have to wonder what their actual stockpiles look like now. They do appear to be holding back in some areas in case of a wider conflict, but if you are losing your best trained personnel in the process, what’s the point?

Would they want to launch something that looks like a nuke right now?

 

[StreetsofBeige]

It’s an air launched ballistic missile, it isn’t really hypersonic. What has puzzled me in this way is that Russia hasn’t used ICMB’s with conventional warheads. Ukraine wouldn’t be able to stop those in the terminal phase as they impact travelling at 7km/s. I guess it would be prohibitively expensive to use them en mass and they aren’t especially accurate so would cause more civilian deaths. I had expected them to leverage ICBMs and high altitude carpet bombing since they have the capacity, but you have to wonder what their actual stockpiles look like now. They do appear to be holding back in some areas in case of a wider conflict, but if you are losing your best trained personnel in the process, what’s the point?

Who knows. I don’t post much in this thread nor have any expertise in Russian military.

But what everyone has heard for decades is that Russia is supposed to have an awesome military second only to the US.

Considering how much problems they have taking over Ukraine, perhaps Russias military has been overrated and dogshit the whole time.

Perhaps they got nukes. But aside from that, the rest of their military is actually crap.

 

[DaleinCalgary]

Who knows. I don’t post much in this thread nor have any expertise in Russian military.

But what everyone has heard for decades is that Russia is supposed to have an awesome military second only to the US.

Considering how much problems they have taking over Ukraine, perhaps Russias military has been overrated and dogshit the whole time.

Perhaps they got nukes. But aside from that, the rest of their military is actually crap.

and drunk

 

[Apocryphon]

Who knows. I don’t post much in this thread nor have any expertise in Russian military.

But what everyone has heard for decades is that Russia is supposed to have an awesome military second only to the US.

Considering how much problems they have taking over Ukraine, perhaps Russias military has been overrated and dogshit the whole time.

Perhaps they got nukes. But aside from that, the rest of their military is actually crap.

They haven’t adapted well to western advancements that’s for sure. Their artillery/armour focus would have served them 30 years ago, but they have struggled to counter drones and western intelligence gathering capabilities. I wouldn’t say their armed forces are crap; it’s all relative. Even the US and UK struggled to adapt to guerilla warfare in Afghanistan and Iraq. Fortunately for western powers, intelligence and air superiority did the heavy lifting in those wars, even if they didn’t decisively “win”. Russia not being able to claim air dominance over Ukraine has been the biggest issue they have faced in this war. They can muster more men and artillery, and with Russian air superiority things would be going far worse for the Ukrainians, but the level of corruption has seriously degraded their abilities to fight large scale conflicts, and that’s a good thing. It’s just odd that they haven’t used some of the more destructive capabilities they have.

Ukraine may not be able to end this quickly, but they seem more than happy to continue to bleed Russian forces. It’s awful all round.

 

[Apocryphon]

Would they want to launch something that looks like a nuke right now?

Looks like a nuke sure, but it would quickly become apparent that it isn’t. ICBMs can carry conventional payloads and would be much more difficult to shoot down as they are well and truly hypersonic. Trajectory is an issue, with those types of weapons but a Russia is massive enough for them to use ICBMs against Kiev. Maybe you’re right and it’s the optics, but how would it be any worse than using incendiary weapons? I guess at least with white phosphorus they can fall back on the argument that Israel uses American made phosphorus munitions in Gaza and the US and British used depleted uranium munitions in Iraq.

Weird war. Russias willingness for heavy manpower losses isn’t unexpected, but the way they are executing their offensive is very strange, particularly given how close they seem to losing public support for the war at home.

Makes you wonder what state Russia’s ICBM stockpiles are in. Most of their arsenal is from the Cold War era and we have already seen the effects of long term storage on their armoured divisions.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Weird war. Russias willingness for heavy manpower losses isn’t unexpected, but the way they are executing their offensive is very strange, particularly given how close they seem to losing public support for the war at home.

Thats what I dont get.

If this was a WWII hex game on PC, ya one strategy to use is attack a fortified city with cannon fodder for 5 rounds. Then swoop in with the good units to claim the city. Every gamer does that since nobody wants to lose their good units right away when $2 light infantry does the heavy lifting.

But in real life, I dont think Russia would do that strategy purposely wanting a 15+ month war in hopes Ukraine and allies give up due to attrition, and then some Elite Russian battalions nobody knew about come in for mop up duty.

You'd think they go in barnstorming back in Feb or Mar 2022 and try to win it fast with manpower and gear. You brought up corruption, which I didnt consider. Not knowing anything, I was just going on public image. And so far I've seen nothing to prove their military is that great at all, unless they do have hoards of nukes or are purposely holding back.

 

[Apocryphon]

Thats what I dont get.

If this was a WWII hex game on PC, ya one strategy to use is attack a fortified city with cannon fodder for 5 rounds. Then swoop in with the good units to claim the city. Every gamer does that since nobody wants to lose their good units right away when $2 light infantry does the heavy lifting.

But in real life, I dont think Russia would do that strategy purposely wanting a 15+ month war in hopes Ukraine and allies give up due to attrition, and then some Elite Russian battalions nobody knew about come in for mop up duty.

You'd think they go in barnstorming back in Feb or Mar 2022 and try to win it fast with manpower and gear. You brought up corruption, which I didnt consider. Not knowing anything, I was just going on public image. And so far I've seen nothing to prove their military is that great at all, unless they do have hoards of nukes or are purposely holding back.

They lost so much equipment in the initial offensive. They clearly assumed it would be a cakewalk and that they could mirror the US invasion of Iraq, but the level of corruption at play and the lack of maintenance of armour in long term storage (tyres, cannibalization of parts and rations for sale on the black market etc) appears to have left them with significantly reduced capacity. Obviously that’s a good thing, but it’s also led to far more deaths than anybody expected. War is brutal, but this shit is extraordinary.

Obviously they have nukes, but they can’t use them without an overwhelming international response. What’s confusing is that they have plenty of high altitude bombers that would be difficult to shoot down. Carpet bombing the Ukrainian front line would yield better results for the Russians but they just don’t seem to be willing to go there, and as a result an order of magnitude more people will die for Putins hubris. It’s disgusting. The only winners in this conflict will be the western military industrial complex, banks, and construction companies, and while those things are necessary evils, it isn’t something that should receive unquestioned overwhelming support from the people. War is evil, period.

 

[DaleinCalgary]

The only winners in this conflict will be the western military industrial complex, banks, and construction companies, and while those things are necessary evils, it isn’t something that should receive unquestioned overwhelming support from the people. War is evil, period.

Wait till you see the scrap metal business in Ukraine after the war is over!

 

[NoLootBoxDev]

 

[NoLootBoxDev]

There are unconfirmed reports from Melitopol of the Russian passport office being shut down, Russian soldiers discarding their uniforms and changing into civilian clothes​

twitter.com/raging...

 

[Lasha]

Looks like a nuke sure, but it would quickly become apparent that it isn’t. ICBMs can carry conventional payloads and would be much more difficult to shoot down as they are well and truly hypersonic. Trajectory is an issue, with those types of weapons but a Russia is massive enough for them to use ICBMs against Kiev. Maybe you’re right and it’s the optics, but how would it be any worse than using incendiary weapons? I guess at least with white phosphorus they can fall back on the argument that Israel uses American made phosphorus munitions in Gaza and the US and British used depleted uranium munitions in Iraq.

Weird war. Russias willingness for heavy manpower losses isn’t unexpected, but the way they are executing their offensive is very strange, particularly given how close they seem to losing public support for the war at home.

Makes you wonder what state Russia’s ICBM stockpiles are in. Most of their arsenal is from the Cold War era and we have already seen the effects of long term storage on their armoured divisions.

Range is one restriction. Ukraine is probably too close for an ICBM. ICBMs have a minimum range of at least 4000km. Wastefulness is another issue. An ICBM can cost over 100 million dollars to make. Spending that much to blow up an apartment building makes little sense. Strategic nuclear weapons are the only payload that makes economic sense for such an expensive weapon.

 

[Futaleufu]

Obviously they have nukes, but they can’t use them without an overwhelming international response. What’s confusing is that they have plenty of high altitude bombers that would be difficult to shoot down. Carpet bombing the Ukrainian front line would yield better results for the Russians but they just don’t seem to be willing to go there, and as a result an order of magnitude more people will die for Putins hubris. It’s disgusting. The only winners in this conflict will be the western military industrial complex, banks, and construction companies, and while those things are necessary evils, it isn’t something that should receive unquestioned overwhelming support from the people. War is evil, period.

Russia's casus belli is weak, they could carpet bomb but they wont because that would be a major war crime.

 

[iamblades]

They lost so much equipment in the initial offensive. They clearly assumed it would be a cakewalk and that they could mirror the US invasion of Iraq, but the level of corruption at play and the lack of maintenance of armour in long term storage (tyres, cannibalization of parts and rations for sale on the black market etc) appears to have left them with significantly reduced capacity. Obviously that’s a good thing, but it’s also led to far more deaths than anybody expected. War is brutal, but this shit is extraordinary.

Obviously they have nukes, but they can’t use them without an overwhelming international response. What’s confusing is that they have plenty of high altitude bombers that would be difficult to shoot down. Carpet bombing the Ukrainian front line would yield better results for the Russians but they just don’t seem to be willing to go there, and as a result an order of magnitude more people will die for Putins hubris. It’s disgusting. The only winners in this conflict will be the western military industrial complex, banks, and construction companies, and while those things are necessary evils, it isn’t something that should receive unquestioned overwhelming support from the people. War is evil, period.

Not really, and definitely not, in order.

Ukraine has SAM systems capable of shooting down any plane in the Russian arsenal. They may not have enough of them to saturate the entire frontline, but Russia clearly does not have good enough intelligence to know where they are and where they aren't. Then there is the issue of poorly trained SAM operators on the Russian side leading to major friendly fire issues.

All that aside there has never been a strategically successful implementation of carpet bombing (or mass bombardment in general) in the history of warfare. It just doesn't work against properly prepared defensive positions.

It's why Russia has been reduced to hitting nothing but civilian soft targets in the rear. Without detailed and accurate intelligence about enemy strong points and accurate and powerful PGMs to hit them it doesn't really matter how many tons of bombs you throw at the front.

Read up on the bombardment the US unleashed on the Japanese fortifications during the island hopping campaign and their fruitlessness. We are talking about a situation where the US had total naval and air supremacy and was bombarding tiny postage stamps of land with everything the most powerful military machine in the history of the earth could throw, compared to a decaying corrupt miltary trying to progress along a front the entire width of Ukraine. Short of nukes there aren't enough bombs on the planet to win this war if Ukraine maintains the will to fight.

 

[Apocryphon]

Not really, and definitely not, in order.

Ukraine has SAM systems capable of shooting down any plane in the Russian arsenal. They may not have enough of them to saturate the entire frontline, but Russia clearly does not have good enough intelligence to know where they are and where they aren't. Then there is the issue of poorly trained SAM operators on the Russian side leading to major friendly fire issues.

All that aside there has never been a strategically successful implementation of carpet bombing (or mass bombardment in general) in the history of warfare. It just doesn't work against properly prepared defensive positions.

It's why Russia has been reduced to hitting nothing but civilian soft targets in the rear. Without detailed and accurate intelligence about enemy strong points and accurate and powerful PGMs to hit them it doesn't really matter how many tons of bombs you throw at the front.

Read up on the bombardment the US unleashed on the Japanese fortifications during the island hopping campaign and their fruitlessness. We are talking about a situation where the US had total naval and air supremacy and was bombarding tiny postage stamps of land with everything the most powerful military machine in the history of the earth could throw, compared to a decaying corrupt miltary trying to progress along a front the entire width of Ukraine. Short of nukes there aren't enough bombs on the planet to win this war if Ukraine maintains the will to fight.

This was an interesting read. Thank you.

 

[Tams]

Carpet bombing the Ukrainian front line would yield better results

Yeah, your armchair general experience from computer games ain't adding to the discussion here.

Carpet bombing hasn't been shown to be effective in the history of military aviation. Not even once. Not even against civilian targets.

And Ukraine do have the SAMs and aircraft with missiles capable of reaching high altitude bombers. Not in the greatest numbers, but should Russia try that, you can guarantee that those supplies will be bolstered.

Further, bombers require human crew too, so can't fly that high. Russia don't have any extreme high altitude/near space aircraft in their fleet.

 

[sinnergy]

Wagner gets more ammo , see it’s all a soap opera

 

[LimanimaPT]

Wagner gets more ammo , see it’s all a soap opera

Did they?

 

[Lasha]

Did they?

Who knows. Wagner says it received a combat order and guaranteed ammunition on twitter. Whether or not that translates to actual ammunition being delivered remains to be seen.

 

[Liljagare]

Hope the assesments are on point.

 

[winjer]

 

[Kenpachii]

wagner probably wants out because there entire force will get decimated in the counter attack most likely

 

[NoLootBoxDev]

Wagner Group leader now claims Russians were not that keen on taking Bakhmut​

pravda.com.ua/eng/ne...

They just send a lot of people to die for nothing...

 

[NoLootBoxDev]

 

[Liljagare]

Was spot on in retrospective.

 

[Cyberpunkd]

But what everyone has heard for decades is that Russia is supposed to have an awesome military second only to the US.

I don’t think that was ever the case since the end of Cold War. Russia military was always crap, in 1905, then in WW2 (that it won by staggering human losses), etc. It’s a country with pathological hatred for human life, including its own citizens. It was always a given Russia military is crap, but now it looks like they don’t even have the numbers to make up for it.

 

[DaleinCalgary]

Who knows. Wagner says it received a combat order and guaranteed ammunition on twitter. Whether or not that translates to actual ammunition being delivered remains to be seen.

Then blow it up en route.

 

[BadBurger]

AT this point I am expecting Putin to stage a false flag attack from Ewoks.

 

[Liljagare]

Who can be the most corrupt? RuSSia can!

 

[Oberstein]

 

[Pjero]

Douglas Macgregor (retired U.S. Army colonel and government official)

What the heck is wrong with this guy? Since the beginning of the war, he has been saying that Ukraine is screwed/doomed and that Russia is just steps away from victory...

 

[FunkMiller]

Douglas Macgregor (retired U.S. Army colonel and government official)

What the heck is wrong with this guy? Since the beginning of the war, he has been saying that Ukraine is screwed/doomed and that Russia is just steps away from victory...

He’s a paid Russian shill, and a piece of shit anti semite. Easily ignored.

 

[ThisIsMyDog]

Two countries of about the same size, in the same region. One went to the EU and NATO from the beginning, the other did not. The consequences are staggering.

 

[LordOfChaos]

Two countries of about the same size, in the same region. One went to the EU and NATO from the beginning, the other did not. The consequences are staggering.

You could also look at North Korea/South Korea which actually started out with the North being more prosperous with USSR backing, now the South is a powerhouse while the North regularly has to scavenge for tree bark and bugs.

Arguably also India/Pakistan but that's different in many ways, at partition the average Pakistani was actually better off and had the US's backing, but they pursued a quasi-military rule with no Pakistani PM ever completing a term, encouraged terrorism against their neighbor, while India was and is a democracy which even without US backing for most of the decades of its existence has ended up doing far better, now the biggest bright spot in a shitty global economy while its neighbors are in crisis.

I forget what my point is.

 

[dave_d]

You could also look at North Korea/South Korea which actually started out with the North being more prosperous with USSR backing, now the South is a powerhouse while the North regularly has to scavenge for tree bark and bugs.

Arguably also India/Pakistan but that's different in many ways, at partition the average Pakistani was actually better off and had the US's backing, but they pursued a quasi-military rule with no Pakistani PM ever completing a term, encouraged terrorism against their neighbor, while India was and is a democracy which even without US backing for most of the decades of its existence has ended up doing far better, now the biggest bright spot in a shitty global economy while its neighbors are in crisis.

I forget what my point is.

What's amazing about South Korea is the amount they spend on their military is similar in size if not bigger than North Korea's entire economy and it's been that way for decades.(Which is why I thought North Korea would get crushed if they were ever stupid enough to try to invade South Korea.)

 

[LordOfChaos]

What's amazing about South Korea is the amount they spend on their military is similar in size if not bigger than North Korea's entire economy and it's been that way for decades.(Which is why I thought North Korea would get crushed if they were ever stupid enough to try to invade South Korea.)

They're not stupid enough to try that. All they want is to be left alone to abuse their people in peace.


They'd lose a conflict, but their schtick has been that Seoul is in close enough range to cause massive damage with even their outdated artillery, to say nothing of if they got a nuke in.

 

[dave_d]

They're not stupid enough to try that. All they want is to be left alone to abuse their people in peace.


They'd lose a conflict, but their schtick has been that Seoul is in close enough range to cause massive damage with even their outdated artillery, to say nothing of if they got a nuke in.

That's true. It's just I've worked with who actually thought DPRK would walk all over RoC if it ever came to that.

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

He’s a paid Russian shill, and a piece of shit anti semite. Easily ignored.

A sad turn of events, since he used to be an incredible battle commander and brilliant military theorist.

The pentagon gave him the signal he would never be general, moved into politics and threw his lot with donald trump and the alt-righters.

Some say the army knew he was a radical anti-semite and that's why they never promoted him, others say the army didn't want his reforms. But that's water under the bridge now.

 

[delirium trigger]

Was spot on in retrospective.

He's ex-KGB, why he's never compared to someone like Stalin?

 

[Gp1]

He's ex-KGB, why he's never compared to someone like Stalin?

Because that's probably who he wants to be compared.

 

[Kerotan]

This war is depressing. It's 6 month's now since we've had big Ukrainian gains to celebrate. I was telling myself in January, just wait until February or March and Ukraine will regain more.

It's now May and I can't wait any longer. The good news is Russia's all out offensive failed but still I need to see gains.

 

[LimanimaPT]

This war is depressing. It's 6 month's now since we've had big Ukrainian gains to celebrate. I was telling myself in January, just wait until February or March and Ukraine will regain more.

It's now May and I can't wait any longer. The good news is Russia's all out offensive failed but still I need to see gains.

An offensive in plain winter is not a good idea. They are waiting for the soil to get hard and dry.

 

[Tams]

This war is depressing. It's 6 month's now since we've had big Ukrainian gains to celebrate. I was telling myself in January, just wait until February or March and Ukraine will regain more.

It's now May and I can't wait any longer. The good news is Russia's all out offensive failed but still I need to see gains.

Thankfully, no one is waiting for your entertainment.

It's still wet and muddy in a lot of Ukraine, Ukraine might be having some issues assembling for an attack, and Russia, as useless as they are, have got some defences that the Ukrainians need to think hard about how to tackle.

 

[winjer]

Because that's probably who he wants to be compared.

Although his regime has rewritten history to make portray Stalin in a positive light, that's not who he admires the most. That would be Alexandre II.
Putin is not a communist, above all, he is an imperialist.

 

[FunkMiller]

This war is depressing. It's 6 month's now since we've had big Ukrainian gains to celebrate. I was telling myself in January, just wait until February or March and Ukraine will regain more.

It's now May and I can't wait any longer. The good news is Russia's all out offensive failed but still I need to see gains.

This is a war. Not the latest season of your favourite Netflix show.

Take a look at the timescales of other wars. They all follow the same pattern: a long period of nothing, followed by a short period of everything. It takes a lot of time to organise manpower and equipment. The weather plays a massive part. And the Russians have been bleeding heavily for months. That’s the point.

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

For your amusement:

The only tank in today’s victory parade in Moscow was a lonely T-34.

 

[winjer]

For your amusement:

The only tank in today’s victory parade in Moscow was a lonely T-34.

Really? Not even the 8 T-14's, Russia pretends to be ready to defeat everything NATO has?
I still remember when Russia would have a dozen ICBM trucks passing in the main street. Then take then in a back alley, change the number and pass them again on the main street to pretend they had many more.
If they can't even do this, then things must be really dire.