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Russia begins Invasion of Ukraine

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Schitts Creek Comedy GIF by CBC
 
Probably trying to start a bankrun or something?

Also it seems shit is going down at the ZNPP, russians cut the radiation sensors. I hope NATO comes out saying if any radiation crosses the border into NATO territory, Russia will be met with a world of hurt.
 
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LimanimaPT

Member
Probably trying to start a bankrun or something?

Also it seems shit is going down at the ZNPP, russians cut the radiation sensors. I hope NATO comes out saying if any radiation crosses the border into NATO territory, Russia will be met with a world of hurt.
This really worries me. They already destroyed the dam, I'm worried they'll do the same with the power plant. They are so stupid that don't understand that the radiation will reach moscow.
 

RJMacready73

Simps for Amouranth
Anyone else log on first thing in the morning hoping to see a total collapse of the front line? i know this will be a slog but fuck me it'd make my day to read about the main thrust of the counter offensive just fucking killing orc's left right and center
 

FunkMiller

Member
Anyone else log on first thing in the morning hoping to see a total collapse of the front line? i know this will be a slog but fuck me it'd make my day to read about the main thrust of the counter offensive just fucking killing orc's left right and center

Unfortunately, it's beginning to feel like the Ukrainians don't have enough manpower or equipment to conduct a full scale counter offensive - the type that's necessary to push the Russians out of the country quickly. The tactic instead seems to be to apply as much pressure as they can with what they've got, and hope the Russians do what they've done previously - run away. It's a counter offensive, but clearly not one done by any kind of overwhelming force.

This all begs the question what are NATO and western nations actually doing to support Ukraine, and how much of it has been bluster? They certainly haven't provided enough to be able to stage a large scale counter, otherwise we'd have surely seen evidence of it by now.

I know a lot of people are coming out and saying that the counter offensive hasn't truly begin, and that they are still in 'shaping' territory... but we've had others saying - most notably Zelensky - that the counter has indeed started. Which is it? I don't see the tactical sense in announcing the start of something, only to say something different a few days later. Not confidence inspiring.

I would be very happy to be proved wrong about all of this.
 
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Ironbunny

Member
Unfortunately, it's beginning to feel like the Ukrainians don't have enough manpower or equipment to conduct a full scale counter offensive - the type that's necessary to push the Russians out of the country quickly. The tactic instead seems to be to apply as much pressure as they can with what they've got, and hope the Russians do what they've done previously - run away. It's a counter offensive, but clearly not one done by any kind of overwhelming force.

This all begs the question what are NATO and western nations actually doing to support Ukraine, and how much of it has been bluster? They certainly haven't provided enough to be able to stage a large scale counter, otherwise we'd have surely seen evidence of it by now.

This wont be a blitzkrieg...for now. The counter offensive has been going on for a while now. Especially against the logistics.

I know a lot of people are coming out and saying that the counter offensive hasn't truly begin, and that they are still in 'shaping' territory... but we've had others saying - most notably Zelensky - that the counter has indeed started. Which is it? I don't see the tactical sense in announcing the start of something, only to say something different a few days later. Not confidence inspiring.

These dont negate each other.

I would be very happy to be proved wrong about all of this.

Ben Hodges wrote a good article about it

The social media channels are alive with grainy footage of tanks and explosions in Southern and Eastern Ukraine. There are statements everywhere that Kyiv’s long-expected counteroffensive is underway, which is causing some excitement and trepidation. The offensive is incredibly important for Ukraine’s future.

But when assessing what’s actually happening, it’s useful to understand some key facts. There is a big difference between starting an offensive, and the main attack or main effort of the operation. The offensive has clearly started, but not I think the main attack.
When we see large, armored formations join the assault, then I think we’ll know the main attack has really begun. To date, I don’t think we’ve witnessed this concentration of several hundred tanks and infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) in the attack.

 

Bitmap Frogs

Mr. Community
Unfortunately, it's beginning to feel like the Ukrainians don't have enough manpower or equipment to conduct a full scale counter offensive - the type that's necessary to push the Russians out of the country quickly. The tactic instead seems to be to apply as much pressure as they can with what they've got, and hope the Russians do what they've done previously - run away. It's a counter offensive, but clearly not one done by any kind of overwhelming force.

This all begs the question what are NATO and western nations actually doing to support Ukraine, and how much of it has been bluster? They certainly haven't provided enough to be able to stage a large scale counter, otherwise we'd have surely seen evidence of it by now.

I know a lot of people are coming out and saying that the counter offensive hasn't truly begin, and that they are still in 'shaping' territory... but we've had others saying - most notably Zelensky - that the counter has indeed started. Which is it? I don't see the tactical sense in announcing the start of something, only to say something different a few days later. Not confidence inspiring.

I would be very happy to be proved wrong about all of this.

I understand you.

From all the reports, western and eastern,
Ukraine had amassed several thousand “fresh” as in no combat experience troops, most of them trained in the west.

Where are they? We know Ukraine is using older formations that have seen action in these offensives.
 

RJMacready73

Simps for Amouranth
Unfortunately, it's beginning to feel like the Ukrainians don't have enough manpower or equipment to conduct a full scale counter offensive - the type that's necessary to push the Russians out of the country quickly. The tactic instead seems to be to apply as much pressure as they can with what they've got, and hope the Russians do what they've done previously - run away. It's a counter offensive, but clearly not one done by any kind of overwhelming force.

This all begs the question what are NATO and western nations actually doing to support Ukraine, and how much of it has been bluster? They certainly haven't provided enough to be able to stage a large scale counter, otherwise we'd have surely seen evidence of it by now.

I know a lot of people are coming out and saying that the counter offensive hasn't truly begin, and that they are still in 'shaping' territory... but we've had others saying - most notably Zelensky - that the counter has indeed started. Which is it? I don't see the tactical sense in announcing the start of something, only to say something different a few days later. Not confidence inspiring.

I would be very happy to be proved wrong about all of this.
I'm hoping where still very much in the "shaping" and "probing" phase, pushing the lines back here and there in order to bring Himars and artillery closer to the front in order to attack supply lines deep in enemy territory.

The main assault hasn't begun yet and the Russians have had months to fortify and entrench their positions, dial in corridors between minefields etc so it's gonna be a slow methodical process instead of the route we had earlier in other parts of the country.

I think we're all impatient in the West to see a decisive victory, we want to see revenge and we want to see the Russians suffer, but I trust that the Ukrainians know what they're doing and with guidance from NATO victory is assured but it's gonna take time unfortunately.

At least there's always those wee glimmers to put a smile on your face like the collection of orcs assembled not far from the front waiting on some colonel to give a speech, the Ukrainians got wind of it and brought up a Himars, punched in the coordinates and let rip and sent hundreds to hell and probably twice as many back to Mordor missing limbs, more of those please.
 
It seems the Russians don't even know how to actually fight. They just rely completely on long range artillery.
Whenever it's trying to take a city IE flatten it so it's rumble because they can't actually take it by force.

Or defending. armour and infantry will get fucked by long range artillery especially if it's coming towards you and airpower isn't in play . Artillery has always been king in a high intensity war.

This war will go on forever . Russia has the infinite sacrificial manpower and all it has to do is sit back and defend the areas it's taken. Or unless Putin dies.

Personally I think NATO should completely get involved, Russians wouldn't have the balls to use nukes.
 

TwinB242

Member
There was a presumption that once the counteroffensive started the Russians (especially the mobilized) would simply drop their guns and run away. Unfortunately, thats clearly not happening and they're fighting for every meter of territory.

Even without having used most of their new brigades this pace is not sustainable for Ukraine in the long term. Their military press comes out and announces everytime the army takes a square kilometer or 2 of land, but given the losses they're sustaining taking those bits of land, the math just doesn't work out in their favor when you look at just how much occupied territory is in front of them (45,000 sq km in Zaporizhzhia alone)

Im hoping they have a trump card up their sleeve that we don't know about yet.
 

sinnergy

Member
There was a presumption that once the counteroffensive started the Russians (especially the mobilized) would simply drop their guns and run away. Unfortunately, thats clearly not happening and they're fighting for every meter of territory.

Even without having used most of their new brigades this pace is not sustainable for Ukraine in the long term. Their military press comes out and announces everytime the army takes a square kilometer or 2 of land, but given the losses they're sustaining taking those bits of land, the math just doesn't work out in their favor when you look at just how much occupied territory is in front of them (45,000 sq km in Zaporizhzhia alone)

Im hoping they have a trump card up their sleeve that we don't know about yet.
I think you are doing a bit dramatic, we haven’t seen the real push yet .
 

RJMacready73

Simps for Amouranth
There was a presumption that once the counteroffensive started the Russians (especially the mobilized) would simply drop their guns and run away. Unfortunately, thats clearly not happening and they're fighting for every meter of territory.

Even without having used most of their new brigades this pace is not sustainable for Ukraine in the long term. Their military press comes out and announces everytime the army takes a square kilometer or 2 of land, but given the losses they're sustaining taking those bits of land, the math just doesn't work out in their favor when you look at just how much occupied territory is in front of them (45,000 sq km in Zaporizhzhia alone)

Im hoping they have a trump card up their sleeve that we don't know about yet.

that's called the actual counteroffensive main assault, at the minute its all probing all along the front
 

TwinB242

Member
that's called the actual counteroffensive main assault, at the minute its all probing all along the front

They're still assaulting and losing as much equipment as the Russians according to OSINT. Thats still a beneficial ratio considering Russia is on defense, but if Ukraine is losing 50 pieces of equipment every day (which includes valuable western vehicles) before the main assault then the main assault won't be as effective.
 
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Darius87

Member
I'm hoping where still very much in the "shaping" and "probing" phase, pushing the lines back here and there in order to bring Himars and artillery closer to the front in order to attack supply lines deep in enemy territory.
unfortunately Himars or any other gps guided missile won't be very effective in counter offensive that's a big problem.
 
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winjer

Gold Member
Himars will continue to be of great value to destroy high value targets. This can be ammo depots, fuel depots, concentration of armored vehicles, or supply vehicles, or supply roads and rail.
This will not kill many Russian soldiers, or push back lines. But it will make it much more difficult for Russia to keep up the fight.
 

RJMacready73

Simps for Amouranth
They're still assaulting and losing as much equipment as the Russians according to OSINT. Thats still a beneficial ratio considering Russia is on defense, but if Ukraine is losing 50 pieces of equipment every day (which includes valuable western vehicles) before the main assault then the main assault won't be as effective.

gonna need to see some verifiable sources for that statement, not the same 5 tanks taken from different angles
 
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