Think it will be like the 2016 Turkey coup attempt? Where nothing changes.
If this is real....It doesn't really matter right now if anything changes, the issue is that Putin has to react and quickly
A good part of his
working military is engaged in Ukraine, defending against the probe attacks/counter offensive
The rest of his
working military is stationed around his very large country, id imagine to keep track of puppet states looking to break away/uprise in this type of situation, general border defence and
protecting important army/naval/airforce bases
Putin needs this problem to go away quickly, as in, the next few hours quickly, before any real trouble can start, the longer it goes on, the weaker he looks, a (potentially) huge private army wandering around his country, unchecked, the non state controlled messages of hope, freedom, change start to inspire others in country and Russia owned countries just looking to get away. Even a tiny coup would cost time, money and effort to sort out, all which is useful for Ukraine. A tiny coup could easily turn into a massive uprising
Putin needs to figure out which of his military untis are under his control (and where they are!), which are possibly going to defect and which will not fight against Wagner, like the supposed border guards "hugging" Wagner on the way in. The next issue is if Wagner gets their hands on one of those "important" bases, it instantly resupplys them, and worst case scenario, gives them potential control of WMD's
All this
behind front lines, live via the internet for everyone to see in real-time. The longer this goes on, the harder it will be to reinforce front line troops, resupply them, keep them in check...why die in Ukraine right now when Russia is potentially at the beginning of a civil war. Drop weapons and slink off, leaving gaps on the front line, letting Ukraine dive in
He needs to come out on TV right now, put the country on lock down and bomb wagner into the stone age before they get too far. So far he's been absent. None of this looks good for Russia, it just depends on how well and quickly Putin can control this situation