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[SirKicksalot]

It’s not even debatable. Ukraine is ceding ground, albeit slowly. Particular east of Kiev. Ukraine cannot win a military confrontation with Russia. They’ve been able to slow their progress and held out extremely admirably. But they’re going to lose this war if it continues. They can bleed Russia and they can make some sort of negotiated solution more advantageous to Russia than continued fighting by raising the cost. But they cannot win a protracted conflict. This is basic military reality. I’m sorry life isn’t a Marvel movie.

Yes but people here compare Russia's advance to a classic US shock and awe campaign.

 

[Thaedolus]

It’s not even debatable. Ukraine is ceding ground, albeit slowly. Particular east of Kiev. Ukraine cannot win a military confrontation with Russia. They’ve been able to slow their progress and held out extremely admirably. But they’re going to lose this war if it continues. They can bleed Russia and they can make some sort of negotiated solution more advantageous to Russia than continued fighting by raising the cost. But they cannot win a protracted conflict. This is basic military reality. I’m sorry life isn’t a Marvel movie.

All the Ukrainians and west have to do is make the cost of taking over too high for Russia to bear. No, Ukraine can’t “win” if Russia is all in. But so far most of the assumptions the Russians have made seem to have been wrong and most of their objectives have gone unaccomplished. We can all be hopeful that at some point soon the Russians will concede the cost is too much and pull back. There’s no guarantee they will but the best we can do is keep driving the cost of this folly up and hope they see the error in their ways.

 

[BadBurger]

It’s not even debatable. Ukraine is ceding ground, albeit slowly. Particular east of Kiev. Ukraine cannot win a military confrontation with Russia. They’ve been able to slow their progress and held out extremely admirably. But they’re going to lose this war if it continues. They can bleed Russia and they can make some sort of negotiated solution more advantageous to Russia than continued fighting by raising the cost. But they cannot win a protracted conflict. This is basic military reality. I’m sorry life isn’t a Marvel movie.

haha, OK comrade

Edit: On a more serious note - I am American, so I will continue to cheer on the good guy. You do you.

 

[Sakura]

Bro they can’t even fuel the vehicles and supply the soldiers they have in the country now. The don’t control the skies and their casualties are piling up while their troop morale plummets. They’re not in control of any major cities and if they go through with their ability to still just carpet bomb the country, then they’re well and truly fucked because the best they can hope for his a Pyrrhic victory. They’ll have gained a crater and completely cut themselves off from the rest of the world. Good job!

Peace and drawn down of sanctions with a solid helping of humiliation is the best they can hope for.

Also, this is ominous considering Japan’s stance on nukes. Even if it’s just talk, I think even such talk is unheard of post WWII

It's been like 4 days. We have no idea what actual casualty numbers are. We don't know whether the fuel issue is actually effecting a large number of vehicles. Do people think Ukraine is not engaging in propaganda? They are at war. Being invaded. Of course they are. They are not going to say or report things that lower morale, and they are definitely going to exaggerate or spread unverified info that raises morale. When have countries at war like this not engaged in this behavior?
Again, to reiterate, it has only been 4 days. Ukraine has 250k strong military, and 200k in reserves (correct me if I am wrong). Russia sent in what, 90k was it? After a very short period of bombardment? And they have been trying to avoid civilian casualties up until now? Yet apparently, because Russia hasn't conquered Ukraine in 4 days, their military is shit and there is no way they can turn this around.
Hitler invaded Poland with over a million men etc, took over a month to conquer it, and we call this blitzkrieg. Meanwhile people here are ready to conclude this war after a few days. I understand it is "modern warfare" and all but geeze.

 

[Jsisto]

haha, OK comrade

Edit: On a more serious note - I am American, so I will continue to cheer on the good guy. You do you.

It would be nice if we could even pretend that people are just commenting on the situation objectively and in good faith, and not just call them communists. Especially when they never “cheered on the bad guy”. Are we not better than this?

 

[DeepBreath87]

Yes but people here compare Russia's advance to a classic US shock and awe campaign.

This is the thing. We are used to the US steamrolling through Iraq and Afghanistan. But wars don’t generally play out that way. I’m sure Putin would’ve liked to do something of that nature to bolster his ego and the perception of Russian power, but that doesn’t mean Russia will “lose” the conflict if it continues.

All the Ukrainians and west have to do is make the cost of taking over too high for Russia to bear. No, Ukraine can’t “win” if Russia is all in. But so far most of the assumptions the Russians have made seem to have been wrong and most of their objectives have gone unaccomplished. We can all be hopeful that at some point soon the Russians will concede the cost is too much and pull back. There’s no guarantee they will but the best we can do is keep driving the cost of this folly up and hope they see the error in their ways.

That’s correct. Make the cost as high as possible and negotiate the best terms possible. Russia will have to decide if the lives and resources required are worth continuing the fight, or if they should consolidate some sort of gains in the east to save face and go home. That is the only off ramp right now. Anyone who thinks Russia will leave with nothing is a fool.

 

[chromhound]

 

[GreenAlien]

Just hilariously sad all the Ls Russia is taking at this point

Realistically, most of those Ls are probably propaganda..

 

[speckz]

 

[DeepBreath87]

haha, OK comrade

Edit: On a more serious note - I am American, so I will continue to cheer on the good guy. You do you.

Cheering? This isn’t football. This is life and death. Ukrainians are dying. More will die the longer this goes on. Their bravery in the face of this is amazing to behold. Ideally they can hold out long enough to force Russia to have to entertain a solution that doesn’t involve them dissolving their existing government.

But if you are under some kind of delusion that your cheering changes the fundamental reality of the conflict, you should seek some professional help. I’m pointing out the realities, as hard as they are. And calling me some kind of traitor, even facetiously, doesn’t really change that. It just makes you look naive, ignorant, and petty.

 

[Cyberpunkd]

This is the thing. We are used to the US steamrolling through Iraq and Afghanistan. But wars don’t generally play out that way. I’m sure Putin would’ve liked to do something of that nature to bolster his ego and the perception of Russian power, but that doesn’t mean Russia will “lose” the conflict if it continues.


That’s correct. Make the cost as high as possible and negotiate the best terms possible. Russia will have to decide if the lives and resources required are worth continuing the fight, or if they should consolidate some sort of gains in the east to save face and go home. That is the only off ramp right now. Anyone who thinks Russia will leave with nothing is a fool.

That’s the way to do it, and also why you cannot stagger sanctions. You hit them hard, and fast so that the shock value of what is happening will make Russia stop. We tried the easy approach after Crimea and it got us nowhere.

 

[BadBurger]

Cheering? This isn’t football. This is life and death. Ukrainians are dying. More will die the longer this goes on. Their bravery in the face of this is amazing to behold. Ideally they can hold out long enough to force Russia to have to entertain a solution that doesn’t involve them dissolving their existing government.

But if you are under some kind of delusion that your cheering changes the fundamental reality of the conflict, you should seek some professional help. I’m pointing out the realities, as hard as they are. And calling me some kind of traitor, even facetiously, doesn’t really change that. It just makes you look naive, ignorant, and petty.

let's not get too literal. I give them all of my support, in any way. Because they deserve it. That's all.

 

[Javthusiast]

Peace talks are there for resupply, repositioning and Putin being able to say to his people hostages, see peace talks failed we have to continue fighting, as propaganda.

 

[JokerMM]

Can't help but think if russia takes ukraine, they'll keep expanding and we might end up with another fucking ww

 

[Thaedolus]

This is the thing. We are used to the US steamrolling through Iraq and Afghanistan. But wars don’t generally play out that way. I’m sure Putin would’ve liked to do something of that nature to bolster his ego and the perception of Russian power, but that doesn’t mean Russia will “lose” the conflict if it continues.


That’s correct. Make the cost as high as possible and negotiate the best terms possible. Russia will have to decide if the lives and resources required are worth continuing the fight, or if they should consolidate some sort of gains in the east to save face and go home. That is the only off ramp right now. Anyone who thinks Russia will leave with nothing is a fool.

Again, they’re only getting weaker the longer they’re in this. Casualties are piling up, whatever the actual count is. Equipment losses are piling up. Their piggy bank was seized. Their economy is going to crash. Their ability to continually make war is going to only get worse and worse as this goes on. Putin is a dictator but he isn’t a magician. They can still conquer Ukraine but again, it’ll be a Pyrrhic victory. They’ll have gained nothing and lose immeasurable blood and treasure.

What concessions can anyone expect when they’re in Russia’s predicament right now vs where they were a week ago? I’m not against throwing them some bone here or there to get peace but they aren’t going to get a better deal, that only incentivizes this behavior going forward and that is off the table (or should be).

 

[chromhound]

Peace talk cancelled???

 

[Javthusiast]

 

[sinnergy]

Peace talk cancelled???

It’s all a charade Russians are moving troops around .. (Reports are indicating this ) these are old ass tactics .. both sides are probably doing this .. plus see if you can get more weapons , you don’t need to be a expert to understand.

 

[SirKicksalot]

This is the thing. We are used to the US steamrolling through Iraq and Afghanistan. But wars don’t generally play out that way. I’m sure Putin would’ve liked to do something of that nature to bolster his ego and the perception of Russian power, but that doesn’t mean Russia will “lose” the conflict if it continues.

The Russians didn't do shock and awe in Syria and Crimea either. Apparently their modern doctrine is to cut off enemy communications and minimise infrastructure damage. Hence the Snake Island story where Ukraine had no idea what was happening until they saw their sailors on TV in Sevastopol.
This doctrine was probably developed after Chechnya and the US adventures in the Middle East. Shock and awe is clearly successful in the short term and Russia has the means to employ it, but they don't.

 

[Gp1]

It is common before a cease fire both parties trying to gain some ground.

 

[speckz]

Russia demands Google restore access to its media YouTube channels in Ukraine

Russia's state communications regulator on Sunday said it had written to Alphabet Inc's Google and demanded that access to Russian media's YouTube channels be restored on Ukrainian territory.

www.reuters.com

 

[Amiga]

Everyone always wanted nukes .. this is nothing new.

The non-proliferation treaty will be meaningless. It was stopping majority of nations from building nuclear infrastructure. but without commitment and cooperation of NATO+Russia+China it would be done. All of Middle East will go for it without restraint not just Iran. This would be the worst outcome of this conflict so far. stakes keep rising uncontrollably.

 

[DeepBreath87]

Again, they’re only getting weaker the longer they’re in this. Casualties are piling up, whatever the actual count is. Equipment losses are piling up. Their piggy bank was seized. Their economy is going to crash. Their ability to continually make war is going to only get worse and worse as this goes on. Putin is a dictator but he isn’t a magician. They can still conquer Ukraine but again, it’ll be a Pyrrhic victory. They’ll have gained nothing and lose immeasurable blood and treasure.

What concessions can anyone expect when they’re in Russia’s predicament right now vs where they were a week ago? I’m not against throwing them some bone here or there to get peace but they aren’t going to get a better deal, that only incentivizes this behavior going forward and that is off the table (or should be).

It’s been 4 days. Losses will accumulate on both sides. I don’t know how Russia expects to hold Ukraine even if they manage to take Kiev. It seems like there will be a protracted insurgency if they do. But all of the things you are saying about Russia with regards to loses generally will apply to Ukraine as well. We can give them munitions like javelins and stingers, but we can’t provide them much beyond that.

Also, Russia isn’t going to want to leave Ukraine as any kind of threat to them going forward. Do you think Russia will be comfortable pulling back from an intact Ukraine just the so west can dump armaments into it as soon as they leave? Then they have this pissed off country on their doorstep that they just got embarrassed by who is getting pumped up by all these NATO nations as a proxy. That’s not going to work for them.

When you’re looking at negotiating, you have to take emotion out of the picture. You have to seriously place yourself in your oppositions shoes. Everything that applies to you, also applies to them. What do they want? What can they tolerate? Who is in the stronger position today? Who will be in the stronger position tomorrow?

I would like to see this conflict ended right now if it’s possible. I think the longer it goes on, the worse it becomes. For everyone. Now I understand that might not be possible. But there is no guarantee that Russia doesn’t feel like it will be in a better negotiating position in a few days if they’re about to surround Kiev from the east.

 

[strange headache]

I’m sorry life isn’t a Marvel movie.

True, war romanticism is pretty strong with some of the people here.

I know we all like to root for the underdogs and the bullied, but cheering from the sidelines while real people engage in real violent conflict is pretty disgusting. Doesn't matter if it's Ukrainians blowing up Russians or the other way around, if you share these wins and losses be aware that they are real human beings forced to kill other human beings. War is the result when reason and respect for human life has failed, that in itself is the ultimate tragedy.

I hope for our fellow Ukrainians to stand strong and hold off the Russian invasion into their beloved homeland for as long as possible. At the same time, I'm realizing the surreal situation of witnessing this conflict live from the safety of my own home. Doesn't matter if you're morally justified in defending your country, what remains is the emotional and psychological scarring of the situation. Being forced to kill other people, even in self-defense, is not something that most can brush off easily.

The Russian’s morale seems to be a night and day difference from the “go fuck yourself” attitude from Ukraine. What a bunch of fucking limp dicks.

Calling Russian prisoners of war "limp-dicks", while commenting on this human tragedy on a frikkin' video game forum from your own cozy little office chair, is the pinnacle of sensationalist ignorance. That Russian soldier is quite obviously f*cking terrified for his own life. Can you blame him? Trapped in the authoritarian nightmare that is Putin's Russia, that little soldier probably had very little choice to be sent into the meat grinder like so many before him in human history. Have you ever wondered how you might react in a similar situation?

I get it, we all want this to turn into some biblical David vs. Goliath success story, but life doesn't work that way. In our hollow materialistic lives, we long for those moments of pure human greatness and courage. Glorifying these events is only diminishing the horrors of war. We want to cheer for Ukraine, but let's also keep in the mind the real cost of war. As usual, it's the little guy who pays the heavy price for the boneheaded inhumane decisions of their political overlords.

I am glad that the international community is coming together to lend support to Ukraine so by all means, root for "the good guys".
But remember that there are no heroes in war, only victims.

 

[Mistake]

Can't help but think if russia takes ukraine, they'll keep expanding and we might end up with another fucking ww

That would have been far down the line, if at all. The swift sanctions pushing Russia onto high alert with nukes is a much much bigger problem right now. I originally didn’t think it would happen because Germany said no and is paying for Russian oil, but here we are

 

[Gp1]

RIP AN-225

 

[MrMephistoX]

That would have been far down the line, if at all. The swift sanctions pushing Russia onto high alert with nukes is a much much bigger problem right now. I originally didn’t think it would happen because Germany said no and is paying for Russian oil, but here we are

That’s the problem half assed slap on the wrist sanctions designed for Positive PR as originally proposed aren’t strong enough but when sanctions are excessive to the point of crippling an economy it tends to provoke a military response: look at imperial Japan’s invasion of China that led to harsher and harsher economic sanctions which gradually got strong enough to have a an impact culminating with their foreign oil supply being cut off: something like 88% of their oil came from foreign sources Pearl Harbor was a Hail Mary to knock out the US Navy so that Japan could have unmolested safe passage in the pacific and unrestricted access to oil supplies supplies in South East Asia.

United States freezes Japanese assets | July 26, 1941 | HISTORY

On July 26, 1941, President Franklin Roosevelt seizes all Japanese assets in the United States in retaliation for the Japanese occupation of French Indo‑China. On July 24, Tokyo decided to strengthen its position in terms of its invasion of China by moving through Southeast Asia. Given that...

www.history.com

 

[dotnotbot]

That would have been far down the line, if at all.

Not really. Just before the invasion, one of the Putler's demands was to return to NATO border from the 1997. Which basically means throwing out Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria from NATO.

Remember that the key reason Putler started his war with Ukraine is because he wants its "demilitarization". So in his eyes if any of the countries has weapons that, according to his propaganda could be used against Russia, he has right to invade.

He also dreams about recreating USSR and all of those countries' territories were fully or partially in the USSR.

 

[RAÏSanÏa]

Well the US has many transgenders that identify as Attack Helicopters so you guys would win in sheer numbers anyday.

There's less than hoped, more than expected.

Russians are robbing shops and safes.

Likely have to siphon gas to get home, too.

Just hilariously sad all the Ls Russia is taking at this point

Sunflower seeds grow when you plant them, not tanks silly bear riders.

Putin keep sending kids to die

A sacrifice he's willing to make.

Russia was willing to "negotiate" before the war, but Ukraine and the West weren't willing to accept their demands.
Now that they have actually invaded Ukraine maybe they think the answer will be different.

The demands sounded familiar: Accept a larp so they could be in charge as well as a do-over because they can't accept reality.

 

[speckz]

 

[Thaedolus]

But all of the things you are saying about Russia with regards to loses generally will apply to Ukraine as well.

In terms of ongoing casualties, yes. But the Ukrainians are mobilizing all men of fighting age, are the Russians? Russians aren’t being resupplied by the wealthiest countries in the world with cash and advanced weaponry, rather they’re being strangled by them. Russians aren’t fighting to keep their homes and sovereignty, Ukrainians are. The Russian commanders apparently had less than a week to plan this thing and no wonder: they look incompetent. They don’t want to carpet bomb the country they want to capture, but it’s probably going to be their only option as their losses mount and they grow frustrated/desperate. What then? Their already dilapidated armed forces are going to be left exhausted and they’ll have no money to rearm and resupply.

You make some good points but I think you’re seriously overestimating their leverage given what we’ve seen. Yes it’s early, but the level of incompetence thus far has been astounding. And this it’s not just Ukrainians showboating, US intelligence is backing this up and unlike 20 years ago, they’ve been right on the mark about everything Russia has done so far. Especially compared to an ally like Germany who has had to do a complete 180 on everything, from not thinking the Russians would actually invade to thinking the Ukrainians had no chance so why bother supplying them? Well, look what tune they’re singing now. Russians look weaker than ever.

 

[Lukaku's First Touch]

dayum, very big. Big fuck you to putain.

 

[DeepBreath87]

In terms of ongoing casualties, yes. But the Ukrainians are mobilizing all men of fighting age, are the Russians? Russians aren’t being resupplied by the wealthiest countries in the world with cash and advanced weaponry, rather they’re being strangled by them. Russians aren’t fighting to keep their homes and sovereignty, Ukrainians are. The Russian commanders apparently had less than a week to plan this thing and no wonder: they look incompetent. They don’t want to carpet bomb the country they want to capture, but it’s probably going to be their only option as their losses mount and they grow frustrated/desperate. What then? Their already dilapidated armed forces are going to be left exhausted and they’ll have no money to rearm and resupply.

You make some good points but I think you’re seriously overestimating their leverage given what we’ve seen. Yes it’s early, but the level of incompetence thus far has been astounding. And this it’s not just Ukrainians showboating, US intelligence is backing this up and unlike 20 years ago, they’ve been right on the mark about everything Russia has done so far. Especially compared to an ally like Germany who has had to do a complete 180 on everything, from not thinking the Russians would actually invade to thinking the Ukrainians had no chance so why bother supplying them? Well, look what tune they’re singing now. Russians look weaker than ever.

All I will say is be careful about conclusions we are drawing about things like competence or the picture on the ground. I kind of take everything I read right now with a grain of salt. The only things you can know are territorial gains and loses. I agree that things appear disorganized for the Russians. But I’m hesitant to draw big conclusions because that may be due to the filter through which I get my information as an American.

 

[speckz]

 

[RAÏSanÏa]

It would be nice if we could even pretend that people are just commenting on the situation objectively and in good faith, and not just call them communists. Especially when they never “cheered on the bad guy”. Are we not better than this?

Agree. Try best to interpret comments as good faith and provide rope.

 

[spons]

LOL at the RT ban. War time propaganda channel gone. Good.

 

[lethial]

EU banning lots of stuff, wow. Good for them!

 

[RAÏSanÏa]

Bundeswehr.
To expand on an earlier comment of mine: If there is an obvious challenger(non-adversarial) for the USA as #1 ranking in terms of martial power in the world it's a determined Germany.

 

[HerjansEagleFeeder]

Some of you guys watch too many movies and TV shows. The Red Wedding isn’t real life. “It’s a trap”. Come on now.

Have you actually read any history?

 

[chromhound]

 

[Mato]

European Union shutting down airspace to Russia, including private jets of oligarchs

“We are proposing a prohibition on all Russian-owned, Russian-registered and Russian-controlled aircraft. These aircraft will no more be able to land in, take off or overfly the territory of the European Union. This will apply to any plane”, von der Leyen said.

“Our airspace will be closed to every Russian plane. And that includes the private jets of oligarchs too," she said.

Many European countries had already closed their airspace to Russian airlines and aircrafts as of Sunday, including Germany, France and Italy.

 

[Forsete]

Sweden to give 5000 anti-tank shots.

– Sverige går nu fram med förslag på direkt stöd. Det är 135 000 fältransoner, 5 000 hjälmar, 5 000 kroppsskydd, och 5 000 pansarskott

135 000 field rations
5000 helmets
5000 body armour
5000 anti-armour shots (AT4)

 

[DeepBreath87]

Have you actually read any history?

I have. I guess I should’ve clarified that I’m talking about modern times. And while that shit used to fly in medieval times, when you could hide it for long periods of time and killing some leader didn’t provide immediate, international repercussions, it isn’t going to accomplish anything positive now for anyone.

 

[Mato]

OMG EU banned RT. FINALLY

 

[sinnergy]

See .

 

[Rossco EZ]

i’m glad everyone is sanctioning russia now heavily but i’m worried about how badly putin will take this, guy seems like a complete madman right now.. how far will he go now?

 

[Mistake]

Not really. Just before the invasion, one of the Putler's demands was to return to NATO border from the 1997. Which basically means throwing out Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria from NATO.

Remember that the key reason Putler started his war with Ukraine is because he wants its "demilitarization". So in his eyes if any of the countries has weapons that, according to his propaganda could be used against Russia, he has right to invade.

He also dreams about recreating USSR and all of those countries' territories were fully or partially in the USSR.

I seriously doubt his expectations are that high. When you bargain, it’s common knowledge you start high and work your way down. If Ukraine went neutral, things would probably stop there. More like India. A little late now though

 

[Insane Metal]

FUCK YES.

That's basically a to Putin

 

[Gp1]

Russian nuclear arsenal specialist explaining what Putin did this morning
Seriously guys, follow The Drive - Warzone. Is probably the best defense website around.

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

i’m glad everyone is sanctioning russia now heavily but i’m worried about how badly putin will take this, guy seems like a complete madman right now.. how far will he go now?

The only way this ends quickly is if his oligarchs elect a different leader...