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Russia begins Invasion of Ukraine

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Nobody_Important

“Aww, it’s so...average,” she said to him in a cold brick of passion
Ukraine are putting up a fight but are ultimately outmatch. NATO sending in some arms is designed to raise the final cost for Russia, not save Ukraine, that would require actual troops and heavy weaponry. In the end even NATO is using Ukraine as a pawn in the great power struggle.
Okay? I am kind of confused because everything that you just said does basically nothing to discount anything that I said.

Just in case let me be a little bit more clear in my meaning. Russia cannot "win" anymore in the sense that they come out on the other end of this in a more positive position than when they started. They have dug a hole so fucking deep that literally nothing they do from this point forward is going to get their head above the top of that hole.


Russia has started a needless war against a sovereign Nation, United the entirety of the world against it outside of maybe China and a handful of other inconsequential Nations, and completely tanked the absolute fuck out of its economy in the process.


There is no "winning" this for them anymore. Russia has basically fucked their own asses into the ground. They have not only embarrassed themselves on the international stage by showing how inept their military is, but they have also completely and utterly nuked their own economy along the way.
 
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sinnergy

Member
We shouldn't get too excited yet. There are still ways Russia can "win" or salvage this.

The threat of nukes is just a threat for now, but to prove he's serious, Putin could launch a nuke that sets off above the sea somewhere in NATO territory. Either that or he could just cut the gas supply in Europe to get the West to ease up on sanctions and providing military support.

Another option is to pull all troops back to the self declared independent regions and negotiate terms that keep these regions independent. Unlikely Ukraine would agree to that, but it's an option and one that Putin would spin as a great victory.

Whatever happens, I don't see this being over anytime soon.
All old tactics in a new world .. his days are numbered .
 

OldBoyGamer

Banned
The point of this isn't Russian regime change. The point of sanctions is to turn-off the war in Ukraine and return to a Minsk Protocol-like state -- that includes the existence of separatist states.

It might be fun to cheer on the constant stream of Western kicks to the head of the Russian state as they are on the ground, but if Putin starts to believe he's in an existential fight externally and internally -- which I believe he's telegraphing by his overt nuclear posturing -- the level of danger is ratcheting up dramatically. And we have a bunch of naïve idiots in the Biden administration.
Just out of curiosity. Would you have preferred trump to have been in charge at this time?
 
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BadBurger

Many “Whelps”! Handle It!
If it actually happens, I feel sorry for those Belarusian paratroopers who are basically being sent to the slaughter.

No matter how this ends, no other country in the future is ever going to want to fuck with Ukrainians.
 

Bragr

Banned
FMptC6JVcAIcrw7
 

akimbo009

Gold Member
The point of this isn't Russian regime change. The point of sanctions is to turn-off the war in Ukraine and return to a Minsk Protocol-like state -- that includes the existence of separatist states.

It might be fun to cheer on the constant stream of Western kicks to the head of the Russian state as they are on the ground, but if Putin starts to believe he's in an existential fight externally and internally -- which I believe he's telegraphing by his overt nuclear posturing -- the level of danger is ratcheting up dramatically. And we have a bunch of naïve idiots in the Biden administration.

Those "idiots" have out played Putin at every stage, and every step of this and ended up with a global response that's almost universally unified and doesn't have the US over committed. This is pretty remarkable, since the real long term adversary for the US is China, not Russia, and Europe has committed to hold their own independent of the US. It's pretty damn good.

Btw. Fuck Putin.
 

Nobody_Important

“Aww, it’s so...average,” she said to him in a cold brick of passion
If it actually happens, I feel sorry for those Belarusian paratroopers who are basically being sent to the slaughter.

No matter how this ends, no other country in the future is ever going to want to fuck with Ukrainians.
Ukraine should have a official bill sent through their parliament to change their national motto to "Fuck around and find out 🙂"
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member

(Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Russia hiked its key interest rate to 20%, introduced mandatory hard-currency revenues sales for exporters and banned brokers from selling securities by foreigners starting Monday in a bid to shield the nation’s assets from sweeping Western sanctions that include penalties on the regualtor itself.

The interest rate will increase from 9.5% to 20%, the central bank said in a statement before ruble trading was due to open at 10 a.m. local time. Earlier Monday the regulator announced a temporary sales freeze on the Moscow Exchange, without specifying which securities the ban applies to. Governor Elvira Nabiullina is due to speak at 4 p.m. in Moscow, the central bank said.
 

akimbo009

Gold Member

(Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Russia hiked its key interest rate to 20%, introduced mandatory hard-currency revenues sales for exporters and banned brokers from selling securities by foreigners starting Monday in a bid to shield the nation’s assets from sweeping Western sanctions that include penalties on the regualtor itself.

The interest rate will increase from 9.5% to 20%, the central bank said in a statement before ruble trading was due to open at 10 a.m. local time. Earlier Monday the regulator announced a temporary sales freeze on the Moscow Exchange, without specifying which securities the ban applies to. Governor Elvira Nabiullina is due to speak at 4 p.m. in Moscow, the central bank said.

Basically fucked. This will only hold things back for a little bit, along with the fixed currency rates they announced. This is Venezuela/Zimbabwe paths to hyper inflation.

Putin can stop this by pulling back, and withdrawing. He won't. So, down goes their economy and all those shitty oligarchs. Hate to see it.
 

Dr.D00p

Member
im wondering how long it will be before china moves on Taiwan

Up until this week I would have said not until at least the end of this decade, when they feel they have a big enough navy & air force to dominate the waters around Taiwan and fend off anything the USN can hit them with, further out in the Pacific...but it all depends on whether the Chinese think that the US & its allies will have the stomach for a peer to peer war over a (relatively) small island, thousands of miles from home.

This is why our reaction to current events is so crucial in determining when China makes its move.
 

nkarafo

Member
with so many nukes, especially on submarines and such, is there 0% chance of one accidentally going off from bumping around too much? What if they accidentally fire on one of their own nuclear subs?
A successful nuke detonation requires some complex functions and math to get the yield you want out of it. There are some complex mechanisms that need to operate correctly in a span of nanoseconds. So it has to be a controlled detonation.

An accidental detonation would cause much smaller damage as most of the core would just meltdown instead of blasting it's energy in a large radius. And i don't think blasting a submarine with torpedoes could even cause an accidental nuke detonation either way.
 

FunkMiller

Member
Just out of curiosity. Would you have preferred trump to have been in charge at this time?

Anyone with common sense, and not part of the hyper partisan political train one way or another, would rightly conclude that neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump would be great in this situation, for very different reasons.

It’s the weakness in the presidency and the entire American political system of the last couple of decades that’s one of the chief reasons this invasion is happening.

Sadly, I doubt many will choice to see it this way, and will continue their pathetic little fight with the other side… because that’s a lot easier than dealing with the truth.
 
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Jorav

Member
Don't see why Belarus is throwing troops at Ukraine given the failures of Russian troops. But if your Putins puppet you don't have much say. I'll pray and send good vibes for a Ukraine decimation of the opposing forces.
 

Banjo64

cumsessed
Goit this horrible feeling that Putin is going to nuke Kyiv. He will get away with it too as the US, UK, no one are going to launch nukes against Russia, as Russia will instantly retaliate ,and it will be the end of the world.

People will laugh i'm sure but a couple of days a go talk of nuclear weapons was laughed off as ridiculous.
Why use a nuke when they can level the entire City using thermos or MOABs? Without the radiation and threat of nuclear retaliation, whilst still using an unholy weapon.
 
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Banjo64

cumsessed
That stupid UN woman almost laughing on the news as she announces UN paid weapons being given to Ukraine. Many couintries today openly announcing they are going to provide weapons to Ukraine. Is everyone stupidly trying to call Putins bluff here?, because i have a horrible feeling he isnt bluffing with this.
Why’s he not launched a nuke yet then? He’s gone from ‘no one should help Ukraine’ to doing nothing whilst the UK, US and EU have sent anti armour weapons and are now going to send full on fighter jets. What’s he waiting for? Where is his red line?

In Warfare you want your enemies to believe you are insane enough to do anything - the man wants to rule Ukraine, he doesn’t want to rule ashes.
 

Cyberpunkd

Member
Either that or he could just cut the gas supply in Europe to get the West to ease up on sanctions and providing military support.
But if he cuts the gas supply how will he get money? Gas revenue are a huge portion of Russia's budget e.g.:

Oil and Gas revenue 2021 - 9.06 trillion Rubles: https://www.statista.com/statistics...d gas revenue,figure over the observed period.

Total state revenue 2021 - 18.8 trillion Rubles: https://tass.com/economy/1232783

Russia literally barely exports things other than gas and raw materials.
 

Bragr

Banned
There are reports of russians shooting random civilian cars, killing everyone, including children, who's inside. Stuff like this will never be forgiven, there will be a deep blood hate from the Ukrainians for decades after this war.

FMnWUacXoAwNWqL



 

Cyberpunkd

Member
Lol. I mean, people didn't believe he'd invade Ukraine, yet here we are. Currently, I believe anything is possible.
It is not. Putin will be pushed aside by his generals before he can even blink if he even dares to suggest something like that. He is no Stalin.
 

Fare thee well

Neophyte
Like
Up until this week I would have said not until at least the end of this decade, when they feel they have a big enough navy & air force to dominate the waters around Taiwan and fend off anything the USN can hit them with, further out in the Pacific...but it all depends on whether the Chinese think that the US & its allies will have the stomach for a peer to peer war over a (relatively) small island, thousands of miles from home.

This is why our reaction to current events is so crucial in determining when China makes its move.
It's so fucking frustrating that all the superpowers are just waiting until they have the means to do the wrong thing; every second of every day. There is no shred of morality or justice holding any of them in place. The minute someone with power can do the wrong thing, they do. Saying I tire of it.... is an understatement.
 

Gp1

Member

(Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Russia hiked its key interest rate to 20%, introduced mandatory hard-currency revenues sales for exporters and banned brokers from selling securities by foreigners starting Monday in a bid to shield the nation’s assets from sweeping Western sanctions that include penalties on the regualtor itself.

The interest rate will increase from 9.5% to 20%, the central bank said in a statement before ruble trading was due to open at 10 a.m. local time. Earlier Monday the regulator announced a temporary sales freeze on the Moscow Exchange, without specifying which securities the ban applies to. Governor Elvira Nabiullina is due to speak at 4 p.m. in Moscow, the central bank said.

Brazil will retaliate now. We don't allow anyone to have the highest interest rate in the world.
 
I want to remind you that there are no opposition leaders active currently. Nemtsov's assassinated, Navalny's in jail, his supporters are either in jail or fled the country. It's not easy to self-organize, those who do, get beaten up and arrested. Nonetheless, you should expect bigger protests next week.

Putin is keeping distance from everyone, hard to tell if someone from his corrupt government has the balls to do the deed.

Navalny needs be broken out. The man looks completely malnourished from recent footage. The judicial system in Russia is broken as fuck too with a 99% conviction rate. He can't expect a fair re-trial.
 
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Rest

All these years later I still chuckle at what a fucking moron that guy is.
with so many nukes, especially on submarines and such, is there 0% chance of one accidentally going off from bumping around too much? What if they accidentally fire on one of their own nuclear subs?
Unless Russia and/or China has built some super janky shit, no. Nuclear weapons use explosives to crush nuclear material down into a dense state where it reaches critical mass. If those explosives go off accidentally the chance they go off in a way that will allow them to create critical mass is very close to 0. If a missile sub had an accidental explosion of an unprimed warhead, it would essentially be like a bomb going off inside the sub. The sub would be damaged or destroyed, but the warhead would not go off.

To give you some food for thought, uranium was discovered in the 1700s. Nuclear bombs weren't invented until the 1940s, after Einstein came up with a newer, deeper understanding of physics and said "this should be possible." Nuclear explosions aren't easy to make happen.
 

Doczu

Member
The threat of nukes is just a threat for now, but to prove he's serious, Putin could launch a nuke that sets off above the sea somewhere in NATO territory. Either that or he could just cut the gas supply in Europe to get the West to ease up on sanctions and providing military support.
Does your username stand for I Don't Know Fuck Anything?
Russia would sign a fucking death sentence. Doesn't have to end in nuclear war, but they would surely get conventionally raped by whole NATO.
 

Rest

All these years later I still chuckle at what a fucking moron that guy is.
Eastern NATO will off load any old ex-USSR jet that they still maintain in their inventory in exchange for financing new jets aligned with the US/Europe. (F-35, Rafale, Eurofighter etc.)
It's a "win-win" situation to anyone. Well except Russia...
Aren't MIG 29s a hunk of shit jet anyway? My understanding is that they're very good at getting shot out of the sky, but not so good at shooting other jets out of the sky.
And on the topic of replacement, would the US realistically sell F-35s to eastern European countries? I think it's more likely that they buy Typhoons and Rafales, but if the US is selling jets east, it would probably be old F-16s, don't you think?
 

Cyberpunkd

Member
with so many nukes, especially on submarines and such, is there 0% chance of one accidentally going off from bumping around too much? What if they accidentally fire on one of their own nuclear subs?
What I understand about modern nukes is you can literally abuse the shit out of them, hit them, drop them, and nothing will happen, even if the explosive materials goes off if the nuclear fission has not been started you will get a larger grenade and that will be it.

Even during WW2 you had bombs dropping from sky high where the arming mechanism malfunctioned and they bounced off the ground. Nowadays all the security mechanism are also way more sophisticated.
 

BadBurger

Many “Whelps”! Handle It!
Aren't MIG 29s a hunk of shit jet anyway? My understanding is that they're very good at getting shot out of the sky, but not so good at shooting other jets out of the sky.
And on the topic of replacement, would the US realistically sell F-35s to eastern European countries? I think it's more likely that they buy Typhoons and Rafales, but if the US is selling jets east, it would probably be old F-16s, don't you think?

My father worked on US fighter jets all his life. As he put it, Russian MIG's were basically target practice to even the old f14 fighters, let alone our current fighters.
 

Cyberpunkd

Member
In general, I really like Robert Wright's take that we should look to give Putin an off-ramp that allows him to save face. I get it might feel good to humiliate him but humiliated people are people at their most dangerous.
This is the most likely scenario:

1. Good one - status quo, Putin will say the "security operation" has been completed, DPR and LPR continue to exist as vassal regions to Russia
2. Bad one - Ukraine will have to explicitly refuse joining NATO, probably by changing constitution

Of course both do not take into account that even if that is over Russia still has fuckton of sanctions, Germany just did a HISTORICAL 180 degrees turn on national security, UE is probably going to light speed energy diversification (watch Germany keeping the nuclear reactors going).
 
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