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[A Human Becoming]

538 does disagree because PPP and Nate Silver are in a spat because Nate Silver asked for their methodology and they gave it to them technically what he asked for with withholding some information, and it became a thing where Silver accused them of skewing their own results (something that has no evidence to the fact beyond Nate's gut).

Yeah I know. I'll try to dig deeper into it. Transparency with polling is important.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

There really are very few contentious primaries on the Democratic side, except in Maryland where that's the real election anyway.

Wisconsin and Illinois look like they will flip regardless, so the Dems are already at 48. Grayson's campaign is sort of imploding, so Murphy will probably be the nominee in Florida and the Republican race is literally anyone's game.

New Hampshire and Ohio will close, but New Hampshire is a shade more blue than the rest of the country and the two best politicians in New Hampshire are running against each other, so I don't know.

The only fuck up the Dems really have, primary wise, is in Pennsylvania, with McGinty v. Toomey.

Sanders would guarantee NH, surely? His favorability there is +86%, he'd drag literally anyone into office on those coat-tails.

 

[kaching]

It's not so much they hate Bernie, as they hate Bernie supporters who extol his virtues and denigrate Clinton without acknowledging that, ultimately, a Bernie presidency probably will not look all that different from a Clinton presidency because of contemporary Congressional gridlock.

There's plenty of ways that their presidencies could look different outside of what neither will accomplish through Congress (foreign relations, executive actions, domestic programs, cabinet/agency appointments, etc.), so it's not like the Clinton supporters are any less annoying in trying to disingenuously represent all the potential distinctions primarily through one factor that happens to average out to their benefit. Frankly, if nothing else, I just trust Sanders' motives more than Clinton's. But, don't worry, I won't have any problem voting for Clinton over anything the Republicans are offering if she makes it to the general.

 

[ivysaur12]

Sanders would guarantee NH, surely? His favorability there is +86%, he'd drag literally anyone into office on those coat-tails.

It's likely that either Hillary or Bernie will win New Hampshire with the way that New Hampshire has slowly been trending more and more Democratic, so Hassan probably doesn't need it, honestly.

Ayotte and Hassan are literally the two best politicians (I used best not in who I like more, but in terms of strengths of a candidate) that New Hampshire has outside of Jeanne Shaheen, so it'll be an expensive race, but Hassan will probably pull it off regardless. Ayotte is running in the wrong year.

Yeah I know. I'll try to dig deeper into it. Transparency with polling is important.

Sure, but they did give Nate what he asked for. Then it got weird.

 

[Flo_Evans]

You mean aise from the "Hes a socialist and a commie hurr durr".
Also Trump can make him look like an old angry man yelling at clouds. I don't have confidence that AMericans will pick a selfdescribed democratic socialist over even a blowhard like Trump really. Nor do I think the election is a shoe-in for the democrats if Trump gets the nom.
I just feel that Bernie will be have a bad matchup with Trump in any debate,
not only because of his views, but mainly in how they noth conduct themselves.
Bernie already was seen as being a bit angry in one of the democratic debates, let alone how Trump would portray him.

And I'm saying all this as a european who aligns perfectly with Bernie's views. Maybe it's just my cynicism when it comes to the american voterbase.

Sanders does better against Trump than Hillary...

This idea that Hillary has a better chance in the general is BS fear mongering.

edit: the last 2 polls even have Trump beating Hillary.

 

[televator]

I hope he keeps going.

 

[Hatchtag]

sanders phone calls here are surprisingly nice. you can tell them shit like "my husband doesn't allow me to vote" and they won't hang up on you. i always call him colonel sanders and they still don't hang up.

 

[ivysaur12]

Sanders does better against Trump than Hillary...

This idea that Hillary has a better chance in the general is BS fear mongering.

Hillary is also the defacto nominee in the minds of many voters, and there's a genuine fear that I hold that Bernie's numbers now are only good in the GE because he has never really been attacked from the right. Once the general actually starts, it could look very different.

I don't know. We'll see how it looks in March. But I do worry that because he hasn't really been attacked by the Republicans and has never really had a contentious candidacy before, that he might not be able to weather the storm of a national election.

There's also just been more polling on Hillary vs. Republicans.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

It's likely that either Hillary or Bernie will win New Hampshire with the way that New Hampshire has slowly been trending more and more Democratic, so Hassan probably doesn't need it, honestly.

I agree. Honestly, I would be very surprised if any states that were not Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, or Virginia ended up changing hands and as such barring really, really terrible local candidates then state races will probably follow the presidential vote.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Sure, but they did give Nate what he asked for. Then it got weird.

It doesn't seem to (entirely) be a gut feeling.

sanders phone calls here are surprisingly nice. you can tell them shit like "my husband doesn't allow me to vote" and they won't hang up on you. i always call him colonel sanders and they still don't hang up.

The only time I've hung up making calls is when the person called him a commie pig.

 

[ivysaur12]

I agree. Honestly, I would be very surprised if any states that were not Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, or Virginia ended up changing hands and as such barring really, really terrible local candidates then state races will probably follow the presidential vote.

Yeah, Colorado won't even really be a race at this point. Nevada will be, but it's been -- again -- trending more Democratic and both parties have good nominees, but I still give the edge to the Dems there.

Strickland and Murphy are just damn good nominees for both of their respective states, and Florida is an open seat and -- again -- trending more Democratic over time, so I would give the edge to him in an open seat there.

It doesn't seem to (entirely) be a gut feeling.

The first polls conducted of Kansas after the Democratic candidate dropped out of the race were from Public Policy Polling and showed Orman ahead by 10 points. PPP’s polls can be highly inaccurate when they don’t have other polls to herd toward. In this case, however, other pollsters may have herded toward PPP, producing an incorrect consensus about the race.17

So my message for fellow polling geeks is as follows: Let’s not give pollsters so much grief the next time they publish what looks to be an “outlier.” Polling data is noisy and polling is becoming more challenging.

Okay Nate.

 

[ErasureAcer]

Funniest part from last night's Black and Brown Iowa Forum.

Q: Is it off brand for a Democratic Socialist like yourself to live in a mansion like the White House?
Answer: LMAO

Bernie will be rising in the polls some more if he keeps displaying such quick-thinking wit. Who doesn't want to have a beer with him?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Yeah, Colorado won't even really be a race at this point. Nevada will be, but it's been -- again -- trending more Democratic and both parties have good nominees, but I still give the edge to the Dems there.

Strickland and Murphy are just damn good nominees for both of their respective states, and Florida is an open seat and -- again -- trending more Democratic over time, so I would give the edge to him in an open seat there.

Honestly, Florida is the state I worry about most - at all levels. I know that's a slight truism because it had such a narrow margin in '12, but even so.

 

[Flo_Evans]

Hillary is also the defacto nominee in the minds of many voters, and there's a genuine fear that I hold that Bernie's numbers now are only good in the GE because he has never really been attacked from the right. Once the general actually starts, it could look very different.

I don't know. We'll see how it looks in March. But I do worry that because he hasn't really been attacked by the Republicans and has never really had a contentious candidacy before, that he might not be able to weather the storm of a national election.

There's also just been more polling on Hillary vs. Republicans.

Right, I just don't agree that Hillary has some huge hidden advantage in the general that some people claim. I don't put much behind these national match ups at this point besides it is generally leaning democrat. Its the only data we have though vs "I feel like Clinton will do better" based on nothing.

 

[ivysaur12]

Honestly, Florida is the state I worry about most - at all levels. I know that's a slight truism because it had such a narrow margin in '12, but even so.

Not to harp on Identity Politics too much, but the influx of Puerto Rican voters into the state plus the growing trend of Cuban voters towards the Democratic party kind of pin points where they're going.

I just can't think of a better candidate for Florida. He used to be a Republican, he's a moderate with little baggage, and he's completely fuckable.

Right, I just don't agree that Hillary has some huge hidden advantage in the general that some people claim. I don't put much behind these national match ups at this point besides it is generally leaning democrat. Its the only data we have though vs "I feel like Clinton will do better" based on nothing.

No, I don't think it's huge. I think GE polls are kind of junk until the convention anyway since contentious primaries can lead to people not supporting a politician that they will eventually support anyway (or not). But I do think there's a legitimate fear -- that I share -- that Bernie's numbers in the GE are only good now because he's not being attacked.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Not to harp on Identity Politics too much, but the influx of Puerto Rican voters into the state plus the growing trend of Cuban voters towards the Democratic party kind of pin points where they're going.

I just can't think of a better candidate for Florida. He used to be a Republican, he's a moderate with little baggage, and he's completely fuckable.

Yeah, I'll be cool with Florida given another generation. Most of the swing states are trending Democratic, though; they're building up a big institutional advantage.

 

[John Dunbar]

Funniest part from last night's Black and Brown Iowa Forum.

Q: Is it off brand for a Democratic Socialist like yourself to live in a mansion like the White House?
Answer: LMAO

Bernie will be rising in the polls some more if he keeps displaying such quick-thinking wit. Who doesn't want to have a beer with him?

he was not a fan of david bowie, though. that's going to hurt him.

 

[Big Baybee]

I really prefer Bernie's policies, but I'm really nervous about him in a general election. Americans are dumb. We've been trained for decades that Socialism=bad. Nobody on the right is talking about Bernie right now. What happens when he is the focus? What if he wins? He's an old guy, will the country re-elect him?

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

So where is the PPP poll and why did you not mention that she is still ahead in both major aggregates? Why does that line up with the thread title "Sanders takes convincing lead in Iowa after late surge".

Either say that Sanders is closing in on Hillary and make a thread about how it's now anyone's game (which is fair!) or don't post at all. Don't try to pick and choose the polls you show in the OP to shape a narrative which isn't really true to life.

I still haven't made up my mind about who to vote for, but this sort of stuff really irks me.

I understand why it irks you, but do you say the same and have the same attitude when CNN has some outrageous headline like that for Clinton?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

he was not a fan of david bowie, though. that's going to hurt him.

Apparently Sanders basically doesn't listen to music a few country tracks aside, so it's not really not being a fan of David Bowie so much as just not liking music. Which is weird, but there you go.

 

[ivysaur12]

Yeah, I'll be cool with Florida given another generation. Most of the swing states are trending Democratic, though; they're building up a big institutional advantage.

Ever since the Democrats lost Missouri and the South, there aren't many others that are trending Republican. Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa... maybe. Maaaybe Ohio. But if that's the case, then it hasn't been reflected the same way the Missouri trend went, or the way that Virginia and North Carolina have been slowly becoming more Blue.

I understand why it irks you, but do you say the same and have the same attitude when CNN has some outrageous headline like that for Clinton?

I mean, I don't watch CNN, so I don't know. I don't even know who I'm voting for.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Ever since the Democrats lost Missouri and the South, there aren't many others that are trending Republican. Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa... maybe. Maaaybe Ohio. But if that's the case, then it hasn't been reflected the same way the Missouri trend went, or the way that Virginia and North Carolina have been slowly becoming more Blue.



I mean, I don't watch CNN, so I don't know. I don't even know who I'm voting for.

You missed the point. If you see a headline such as the one in the OP that favors Clinton while ignoring some facts, does it irk you just like this OP irks you?

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

Im stunned. After October, I thought he was done. I mean I kind of knew the right would eventually get back to the emails thing, but I thought they were going to save that for the general election,

I did tho expect Bernie to get a bounce to within 10, because there were still a lot of undecided voters that wernt being shown in the polls. To me, the magic number for Bernie is 53%. If he can get the rest of the undecideds and a few from Hillary, its possible.

Iowa being a caucus state also makes an interesting dynamic. Feb 1st will be insane.


EDIT: And about the socialism thing. The word has been tossed around so much the last 8 years that I think people tune out when they hear it now, besides the right's base.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Ever since the Democrats lost Missouri and the South, there aren't many others that are trending Republican. Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa... maybe. Maaaybe Ohio. But if that's the case, then it hasn't been reflected the same way the Missouri trend went, or the way that Virginia and North Carolina have been slowly becoming more Blue.

I don't really think of Michigan or Wisconsin as swing states any more. Given hyperpartisanship, I don't think you'll ever see Reagan or Johnson-style victories again. Instead, you're much more likely to see the more European party of slim election margins lacking in swing voters. Anything where Obama won with at least 5% in 2012, a relatively poor victory election, is not really a 'swing state' in the true sense of the term [that is, has a reasonably significant statistical likelihood of being the marginal state]. IMO, the swing states are Colorado, Florida, Virginia, Ohio and maaaybe Nevada. As far as I know, all five of these are trending Democratic.

 

[Epsilon-delta]

EDIT: And about the socialism thing. The word has been tossed around so much the last 8 years that I think people tune out when they hear it now, besides the right's base.

Not only that, the reason why 'socialism' was vehemently hurled at Obama from the right was most likely due to racism that a black man became POTUS.

 

[Ecotic]

I'm not sure how I feel about this. On the one hand I hope for a long, competitive primary like in 2008. It was good for the party to gin up excitement and get people registered.

I'd much prefer a Sanders Presidency over a Hillary one, and I want to believe the polls that say he's competitive in the general, even more competitive than Hillary is. But I believe his candidacy is ultimately riskier because he's old, an avowed socialist, and yells constantly. I'll say he's doing pretty decently as a candidate, beyond my expectations. With Hillary doing worse, with Bill and her email problems dragging her down.

 

[ivysaur12]

You missed the point. If you see a headline such as the one in the OP that favors Clinton while ignoring some facts, does it irk you just like this OP irks you?

Of course, but again, I don't really understand your point unless you're trying to trap me into some pro-Clinton bias.

I don't really think of Michigan or Wisconsin as swing states any more. Given hyperpartisanship, I don't think you'll ever see Reagan or Johnson-style victories again. Instead, you're much more likely to see the more European party of slim election margins lacking in swing voters. Anything where Obama won with at least 5% in 2012, a relatively poor victory election, is not really a 'swing state' in the true sense of the term [that is, has a reasonably significant statistical likelihood of being the marginal state]. IMO, the swing states are Colorado, Florida, Virginia, Ohio and maaaybe Nevada. As far as I know, all five of these are trending Democratic.

Very much so. I worry about Michigan's population decline, but that's a much longer story, and Peters won there with no problem in a terrible year for Dems.

I agree that the only actual swing states are Colorado, Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Nevada. I'd add North Carolina if we're playing with Nevada, but would count that unlike the others, Ohio seems very static in its trend.

 

[dramatis]

You missed the point. If you see a headline such as the one in the OP that favors Clinton while ignoring some facts, does it irk you just like this OP irks you?

You mean a guy who responds like this to the questions Trump had been raising about Bill Clinton?

I think something might have happened with Juanita Brodderick.

I think that no prosecutor would take the case even if Bill Clinton was Joe Schmoe by the time that Juanita alleged that Bill Clinton raped her.

I think it's the fault of the media being so tired of another damn Clinton scandal that more wasn't made out of this in the 90s.

I think that since politics is about people who are usually imperfect and some downright bad doing overall good things for the populace, so it's okay to still support someone who you think is less-than-perfect or even bad if their policy positions are solid.

This is a complicated thing I've gone through the past few weeks when thinking about the Juanita Broderick case. Obviously, this case will never be tried, Bill Clinton will never have any actual case brought against him because there really isn't one. But hearing her testimony, listening to people in her life that say she's been telling the same story since it happened... I don't know.

Yes, I think he would be irked by titles made with favoritism.

If you want to talk about how other people are being biased, I would like to point out that you didn't even post in the thread about the Bernie campaign stealing data from the Hillary campaign. Did you stand up and say that it was wrong of Bernie's campaign to do that? No, of course not. But you do take your time out to complain about "Hillary supporters".

 

[-MB-]

Sanders does better against Trump than Hillary...

This idea that Hillary has a better chance in the general is BS fear mongering.

edit: the last 2 polls even have Trump beating Hillary.

Polls done before any debate between either is meaningless, the two haven't even been verbally
locked in combat yet, which is where I base my opinion on.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Okay Nate.

I have no problem with that last statement. Concidentally, 538 just released their Iowa Democratic forecast where PPP holds the most weight.

 

[ivysaur12]

Polls done before any debate between either is meaningless, the two haven't even been verbally
locked in combat yet, which is where I base my opinion on.

VERBALLY LOCKED IN COMBAT IS MY NEW FAVORITE PHRASE THANK YOU SIR AND OR MA'AM.

 

[Patrick Bateman]

I'd laugh so much if Hillary Clinton would lose to Sanders.
First everybody said that she'll be president, then Obama came along. Now everbody says that's she'll be president and now Sanders comes along.

 

[Flo_Evans]

Polls done before any debate between either is meaningless, the two haven't even been verbally
locked in combat yet, which is where I base my opinion on.

So your opinion is based on how you feel a debate will go? i.e. nothing.

 

[rjinaz]

Speaking of Nate. Any revisions on his part yet? As I recall this was about the time he expected things to start turning against Trump. Last week/this week.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Very much so. I worry about Michigan's population decline, but that's a much longer story, and Peters won there with no problem in a terrible year for Dems.

I agree that the only actual swing states are Colorado, Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Nevada. I'd add North Carolina if we're playing with Nevada, but would count that unlike the others, Ohio seems very static in its trend.

One thing I hope Clinton/Sanders/O'Malley(hehehehe) promotes while in office is the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. It's so close to being achieved now and it would have such a refreshing effect on American politics to have the campaign being conducted nationally rather than just in a rather small group of states.

 

[ivysaur12]

One thing I hope Clinton/Sanders/O'Malley(hehehehe) promotes while in office is the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. It's so close to being achieved now and it would have such a refreshing effect on American politics to have the campaign being conducted nationally rather than just in a rather small group of states.

It's weird that hyper red states haven't gotten on board with that, to be honest.

I have no problem with that last statement. Concidentally, 538 just released their Iowa Democratic forecast where PPP holds the most weight.

Me neither, but I wouldn't complain about the latter and then argue the former as an example of terrible polling.

I'M ALSO READY FOR THE O'MALLEY SURGE ANY DAY

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I have no problem with that last statement. Concidentally, 538 just released their Iowa Democratic forecast where PPP holds the most weight.

Doesn't that mean PPP is considered more reliable than other pollsters in their model? Whatever grievances he might have in articles, he still knows their numbers are fairly reliable.

 

[wild wild rice]

Fuck yeah. For a while there I was convincing myself Hillary would be OK and that our country isn't "ready" for Bernie. I would love to see this sort of change in my lifetime.

 

[And_Gignac]

I dont think he is going to win the generals (depends on how big the effect of Iowa + NH translate into a rise in votes from Hispanics, Blacks and women), but I love to see the naysayers in desmay and panic, since they absolutely failed to read how the anti-establishment narrative is leaking too in the democratic race.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I'M ALSO READY FOR THE O'MALLEY SURGE ANY DAY

I've quite enjoyed O'Malley's contribution to the debates.

 

[JustenP88]

I dont think he is going to win the generals (depends on how big the effect of Iowa + NH translate into a rise in votes from Hispanics, Blacks and women), but I love to see the naysayers in desmay and panic, since they absolutely failed to read how the anti-establishment narrative is leaking too in the democratic race.

A lot of people have been too concerned with predicting "correctly" to pay any damn attention to what's happening.

 

[egruntz]

Fuck yeah. For a while there I was convincing myself Hillary would be OK and that our country isn't "ready" for Bernie. I would love to see this sort of change in my lifetime.

As time goes on, Bernie's support keeps growing and growing. It is super motivating to see! People historically don't pay much attention to the race until around this time anyway (January of the year of), so if he's gaining attraction at this point it's a great sign. If he can take both Iowa and New Hampshire, I believe that could lead into a snowball that really boosts his support and numbers.

MoveOn just endorsed him, which is huge in itself, and other endorsements are coming out as well. This is a very exciting time! It's been fun to be a part of the campaign and to witness all of this going down, especially how the media has been downplaying Sanders for so long.

 

[Version 3.0]

It's weird that hyper red states haven't gotten on board with that, to be honest.

Too shortsighted. The possibility of their votes going to the Democrat candidate is too great, so they can't see past that to the fact that this is their best chance of overcoming the electoral handicap.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Me neither, but I wouldn't complain about the latter and then argue the former as an example of terrible polling.

Reading the former again, I interpreted as saying PPP polling is an inaccurate independently, which isn't criticizing them when they have results outside the averages. I'm not an expert on polling so a good portion of the article is lost on me, but from what I understood he's talking about the difference between consistent polling versus the average and accurate independent polling as election day comes.

Doesn't that mean PPP is considered more reliable than other pollsters in their model? Whatever grievances he might have in articles, he still knows their numbers are fairly reliable.

Well it's a new poll and Five Thirty Eight still rates them a B-. It might be more heavily weighted if they were say A or A-.

 

[-MB-]

So your opinion is based on how you feel a debate will go? i.e. nothing.

You mean like these pollnumbers, months before any real debate between the two that can affect the outcome, sure. That's why I don't state it as fact, but as a personal fear based off my perception of the 2.

 

[HStallion]

I find it a bit odd that people said Bernie didn't do great in his debates with Hillary when I thought he actually did a pretty decent job overall. In fact his rather brusque attitude and straight to the point, if a little intense, demeanor on a lot of issues is rather refreshing. Oh he does beat around the bush at points and other nit picks but he doesnt abuse these tactics as bad as some other politicians I've seen out on the campaign trail this last year.

I'm not sure the general public likes that kind of person but I enjoy someone who doesnt bull shit me too much and gets to the point.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Of course, but again, I don't really understand your point unless you're trying to trap me into some pro-Clinton bias.



Very much so. I worry about Michigan's population decline, but that's a much longer story, and Peters won there with no problem in a terrible year for Dems.

I agree that the only actual swing states are Colorado, Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Nevada. I'd add North Carolina if we're playing with Nevada, but would count that unlike the others, Ohio seems very static in its trend.

I'm not trying to trap or accuse you of anything. Some people are only upset when a title showing favoritism is against something they believe him. I saw your post and replied to it with a question, not sure how that came off as a way to try to trap you but I digress.

You mean a guy who responds like this to the questions Trump had been raising about Bill Clinton?

Yes, I think he would be irked by titles made with favoritism.

If you want to talk about how other people are being biased, I would like to point out that you didn't even post in the thread about the Bernie campaign stealing data from the Hillary campaign. Did you stand up and say that it was wrong of Bernie's campaign to do that? No, of course not. But you do take your time out to complain about "Hillary supporters".

I'm not voting for Sanders - or anybody - in the primary and would only vote for him in the general if I liked his tax plan. Otherwise it's back to my usual "not voting" life. I believe I have said that repeatedly here.

We all have favorites and we all have biases and your quote does not disprove what you were trying to disprove. Do I have to stand up and say it's wrong for his campaign to steal? No, but I will say it now that it was wrong. I will add and say that it was weird and creepy for him to liken a woman having sex to being raped or something like that.

 

[Log4Girlz]

The dream lives

That would be an atom bomb

 

[q_q]

comparing '08 Obama to '16 Bernie is disingenuous since Obama was always loyal to the party and and was handpicked to deliver a keynote address in `04. Obama had the blessing from the establishment.

Bernie made a career being critical of the Democratic Party all his life. Now he is using the party's primiariis as a vehicle to propel him

Establishment folks have not chosen him and know that he is not a Democrat.

This is why 2016 is very different from 2008.

Obama was the golden child and rising star +loyal to the party. Bernie isn't

You're overstating Obama's position. While I agree with your overall sentiment, lets not pretend there wasnt a huge wing of the establishment that did all they could to get him out of the race. His status as the potentially first black president was all that saved him in that regard.

 

[wildfire]

This all barely matters anyway unless there are major inroads made to shaking up Congress.

I know the Prez will have their pick of SCOTUS justices, but they have to get through the Senate anyway.

Hillary won't have a smooth time either so this is a pointless declaration.