There's really no need to feel anxious about Bernie, in the GE, as Bernie will have millions upon millions of energetic supporters, of all age groups, backing him every step of the way. He may be 74, but he's canvassing like he was twenty years younger, which is no surprise, considering that he was a fine athlete, in his youth (he was captain of the cross-country and track teams in high school). Also, by the end of 2015, he'd raised $73 million, with the average contribution of less than $30, so in the GE, he'd have a much bigger pool of voters to call on, again, and again.
Sanders takes convincing lead in Iowa after late surge
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There's really no need to feel anxious about Bernie, in the GE, as Bernie will have millions upon millions of energetic supporters, of all age groups, backing him every step of the way. He may be 74, but he's canvassing like he was twenty years younger, which is no surprise, considering that he was a fine athlete, in his youth (he was captain of the cross-country and track teams in high school). Also, by the end of 2015, he'd raised $73 million, with the average contribution of less than $30, so in the GE, he'd have a much bigger pool of voters to call on, again, and again.
Box of Kittens
Banned
The Clinton camp tried to push the inevitability narrative in 2008 but that was never really true. There was always a strong "Anybody but Clinton" camp in '08 which, for a long time, was split between Obama and Edwards before consolidating on Obama. This time around Clinton did have a commanding lead, like 60%+ support, for a time. Obama was always a formidable foe in '08. If (and that's a big if) Clinton loses this time around, it would be a huge collapse in a way that '08 was not.
It's not quite comparable. IF Sanders had Harry Reid and, say, a Chuck Schumer or a Dick Durbin urging him to run like Obama had in '08 with Reid and Kennedy, it might be different. There was a huge part of the establishment that welcomed an Obama win -- yes, he was behind Clinton in the endorsement race for a time, but he had some very key players on his side.
In January alone, there was Ben Nelson, Claire McCaskill, Kent Conrad (in December). Those are not liberal, progressive lions. Those are very moderate Senators. There was a MUCH more contentious establishment schism than there was in 2016.
Voters tend to get more pragmatic the closer they get to an election. It would be... hard to see her losing to Trump, or even to Cruz. I think it's very likely the only Republican that could actually give her a run for it is Rubio, but he comes with a different set of challenges.
The pragmatic part of me doesn't care because I know there's a slight electoral advantage to the Democrats, but the part of me that thinks it's important that the winner of the popular vote wins the elections is weirded out the red states don't see this.
Henchmen21
Banned
But gaf told me Hillary was the chosen one......
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
I like Sanders but he really has not faced an opponent that will attack him the way a Republican in the general would. Even with the headlines from the Clinton vs Sanders match up, it has been relatively tame. He does well right now in polling against republicans because he has yet to really have any negative campaigning against him.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
But gaf told me Hillary was the chosen one......
And that Trump was done about 90 times after some new comment.
Think people here really need to understand how disconnected they are from their own base, let alone the rest of the country on what is important.
perfectchaos007
Member
But gaf told me Hillary was the chosen one......
That's weird, because gaf told me Bernie was just weeks away from folding his campaign. I wonder why gaf sends mixed messages sometimes.
I still can't believe how stubborn people are being about Trump. It's not so much that his numbers are high, it's that his numbers are high and nobody else is even close. Who's going to challenge him? Who?
The dream lives
For the love of god yes.
illusionspark
Member
Negative campaigning doesn't always work as intended. Sometimes it backfires. I don't know how effective negative ads will be against Bernie. "He's a socialist that wants to raise taxes and is old" is about all they have.
LumpOfCole
Member
But this week's CBS's The Good Wife already pushed the narrative that Hillary is going to double Bernie's numbers in Iowa.
LouisaFerre
Member
This is where I post-ironically say YASSSSSS
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Age isn't really an issue if you pick the right VP, if we're going to be morbid about it. Spending I don't think will be an issue in this specific election, very rarely, because of the anti-establishment rush (and this an opportunity must be seized because it might not come again); the money hasn't helped Jeb and it's not done much for Clinton either. I think Sanders is less bad on other issues than you think, plus stuff like that is what the VP choice is for - Clinton's 3 AM ad was all about pointing out how bad Obama would be at foreign policy plus a healthy side dose of racism, and Obama still got by fine in the general by appointing the 'steady hand' of Biden.
I think Sanders' hypothetical VP choice would be very important. It'd ideally be someone younger than him, who is an establishment Dem, preferably a woman or minority just to make a reach out to that divide, who has an air of 'steady hand on the tiller'. Bonus for being from a swing state. Not really sure who leaps to mind immediately. Tim Kaine is something close, although not a minority/woman.
I think Sanders' hypothetical VP choice would be very important. It'd ideally be someone younger than him, who is an establishment Dem, preferably a woman or minority just to make a reach out to that divide, who has an air of 'steady hand on the tiller'. Bonus for being from a swing state. Not really sure who leaps to mind immediately. Tim Kaine is something close, although not a minority/woman.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
It's not just because of negative campaigning. The general public don't know Sanders that well. They know bits and pieces. But not to the extent of someone like Hillary or even Trump. Sanders is polling well right now against Republicans because of that. I guarantee that it would be a very very tough battle for Sanders and I would actually be worried that a Republican will end up in the White House. This has always been the case with lesser known candidates.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Honestly, I was hoping for better answers than this from someone who is a big fan. My concerns are actually greater now. VP picks are not generally a big deal after the big announcement. Unless you're Sarah Palin.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I disagree, I think both Palin and Biden had a fairly big impact on the race. Lieberman did in 2000 as well, he was one of the critical factors on Gore underperforming.
Prodigal Son
Member
What are the odds of Sanders being vice to Hillary should we win?
Who would be Sanders' vice if he won? O'Malley?
Who would be Sanders' vice if he won? O'Malley?
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
lol, the 2008 financial collapse had a big impact on the race. Biden was just some guy who occasionally made gaffes and was forgotten about in the shadow of Palin-mania. I think you're remembering history incorrectly.
Zero chance of Sanders as VP, O'Malley is more likely for a cabinet spot.
Monocle
Member
Dictator93
Member
Crossing my fingers for Sanders. The man the US needs but does not deserve.
Prodigal Son
Member
This quote is thrown around a lot but never has it been this applicable.
Monocle
Member
The man the US needs but won't accept. No way will his efforts toward reform be met with anything less than total obstruction, assuming he can get himself elected.
Don't forget the chance to make history again with Hillary vs the possibility of Sanders Vs *gulp Rubio.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I thought Sanders would choose Kaine, I mooted it in the other thread. I think he has to pick an establish Dem who is younger than him and regarded as a safe pair of hands, ideally good with foreign policy, ideally a woman/minority to try and bridge divides and show willingness, and ideally from a swing state. Kaine ticks all of those boxes except woman/minority. Sherrod would be too similar to Sanders, it would be playing to type.
Henchmen21
Banned
Here's the thing about that Monocle. The senate is very much up for grabs this election and the house might change too when bernie gets he nom.
Forgot to post this too in my other post but love the acronym ARG. It's as if Charlie Brown became a pollster when he grew up.
Yoda
Member
I don't think it would be that crazy for him to in Iowa. Hillary (and Bill) never performed well there, and her campaign has no on-the-ground enthusiasm akin to Bernie's or Obama's did 8 years ago. If he does win, NH looks like a sure thing for him too, losing both would really hurt Hillary's inevitability perception.
On "electability" I don't buy that Hillary is the most electable of the two. The only item that will hurt Bernie is being calling a socialist, which resonates the most with old white voters... These people are most likely breaking republican anyway.
http://www.vox.com/2016/1/11/10750326/clinton-sanders-poll
These are the same voters who's turnout % broke most pollster's expectations for 08 and 12 (and failed to show up in 10 and 14). A few percentage points down would cause many "purple states" to be full-battleground states. Hillary would have to spend extra in said swing states, and she WILL get outspent by the other-side, look at how lose the right-leaning billionaires are w/Jeb Bush despite his abysmal polling numbers. Hillary ought be able to demonstrate she can excite "the base" before people claim she's the most electable; if she gets Gore or Kerry style turnout (the safe electable establishment choices), even Trump would give her a run for her money.
On "electability" I don't buy that Hillary is the most electable of the two. The only item that will hurt Bernie is being calling a socialist, which resonates the most with old white voters... These people are most likely breaking republican anyway.
http://www.vox.com/2016/1/11/10750326/clinton-sanders-poll
These are the same voters who's turnout % broke most pollster's expectations for 08 and 12 (and failed to show up in 10 and 14). A few percentage points down would cause many "purple states" to be full-battleground states. Hillary would have to spend extra in said swing states, and she WILL get outspent by the other-side, look at how lose the right-leaning billionaires are w/Jeb Bush despite his abysmal polling numbers. Hillary ought be able to demonstrate she can excite "the base" before people claim she's the most electable; if she gets Gore or Kerry style turnout (the safe electable establishment choices), even Trump would give her a run for her money.
Huw_Dawson
Member
For UK Poligaf people who might want a take-home from this for the UK, the techniques and happenings of US campaigns often have a surprisingly large impact on the way political parties in the UK try to do things - is Bernie's fundraising strategy a portable idea?
I hope Bernie wins this (he's pretty much slap bang in the centre-left) but my worry is that we in the UK have already seen a genial old white rebel leftie with a surprisingly effective grassroots campaign come to the fore of politics in recent months, and it's gone terribly so far.
I hope Bernie wins this (he's pretty much slap bang in the centre-left) but my worry is that we in the UK have already seen a genial old white rebel leftie with a surprisingly effective grassroots campaign come to the fore of politics in recent months, and it's gone terribly so far.
NullPointer
Member
Would Warren as VP really help her to make more positive change than where she is right now?The dream lives
For the record, I'm pretty sure Obama has publicly cried more than Hillary has by now.
And I don't mean that as a slight, or a slight against him. He's had all the reasons in the world.
But if Hillary gets the nod I do expect the Republicans to try and knock her off guard and showcase some emotion, which they'll then pounce upon. As usual its the kind of attack that would work great with their small true believer audience, but blow up in their faces with everyone else.
I want Warren as the VP just in case of a worse case scenario. I feel she is closes to him on key issues and in case she needs to take the reigns her platform would be very close to what he has proposed.
I feel that if he picks a moderate and worse case scenario happens the movement might stall while Warren is the type of standard bearer that can maintain all he has build in a little over 8 months.
I thought the main problem was absolute resistance from the establishment within the party - rather than him being an ineffectual leader. He basically decimated them in the election and now they've decided to drive him out with any methods and means even if that disenfranchises likely voters. The situation is not similar since as a President the type of power Sanders would hold is far greater than what an opposition leader in the UK is able to do.
gutter_trash
Banned
I will never understand Gore's choice of that neocon warmonger Lieberman
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I think that's a bad idea a) because Warren is super useful in the Senate, and b) two New England candidates on the same slate is bad optics.
Sherrod also comes with huge midwestern appeal, though, and Ohio.
I think it's likely both are going to pick a person of color if it's not Kaine.
I don't like music. It feels like a waste of time and there are better things to do. It's okay in the background while doing other things but then who cares what song is on if it's just there to make time go more quickly.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I think Clinton has to pick Sherrod - as in literally *has* to pick Sherrod - because he is the closing thing she has to a Sanders on her side and she simply cannot risk losing Bernie's demographic. I'm less sure about Sherrod for Sanders; Kaine is a much better fit. And yes, if it isn't Kaine or Sherrod it will probably be a minority for either. I can't really think who fits, though.
EDIT: What about Robin Kelly for Sanders? I have no idea how good a media performer she is, though.
EDIT2: Or Yvette Clarke.
EDIT: Actually nooooooo not Yvette Clarke, backpedal on that.
I want to take this opportunity to share with you guys a couple of Bernie's moments in Congress in past years. Just shows his consistency and for how long he's been fighting for the middle class:
1991 https://youtu.be/xyLhhYc6fO8?t=34s
2005 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdp4fUowhbw
I don't have the link saved, so maybe I'll add it in later, but you should also look at his exchange with Ben Bernake and the Fed in 2009 after the crash. If you search YouTube, you'll find it. It's a video that really signifies how hard he'll be on these greedy individuals who are erasing the middle class and putting the nation's economy at risk for their profit. He just does not relent...it was awesome. I'll maybe post it after work if I remember to.
GO Bernie!!
1991 https://youtu.be/xyLhhYc6fO8?t=34s
2005 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdp4fUowhbw
I don't have the link saved, so maybe I'll add it in later, but you should also look at his exchange with Ben Bernake and the Fed in 2009 after the crash. If you search YouTube, you'll find it. It's a video that really signifies how hard he'll be on these greedy individuals who are erasing the middle class and putting the nation's economy at risk for their profit. He just does not relent...it was awesome. I'll maybe post it after work if I remember to.
GO Bernie!!
I can dream of a Sanders/Warren ticket a crab cannot take this away from me
Karsticles
Member
Warren is great because it preps her for a run down the line.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Actually, what about Nina Turner for Sanders? Too minor?
You know she's like 66 right? There is no down the line for her.
I loved her from her Bernie rally intro but I've never seen her do much else.
I feel like Bernie would be a one-term president due to age and I'd really like to see Warren swoop in afterwards. Maybe it's just because I can't think of any other Democrats that excite me, but I'd love her as VP.
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