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[Biff]

Hello GAF. I've been thinking about a second wave of COVID and how it may affect our lives should it happen. Virtually every prior major pandemic has had a second wave, and given it seems unlikely we will have a vaccine before the typical late Fall/early Winter declines in human immune systems, I assume this time will not be different.

That said: What is your view on what the government should do in the second wave? Should we shut down the economy again? Do a partial shut down? Or ignore it and let Grammy and Grampy fight for themselves?

And by "we", while I naturally am positioning this from a US-centric view, basically every economy has seen a shutdown so this is very much directed at all of us.

And if there is a better way to position the Poll let me know and I can adjust the answer options (I assume this feature is possible).

 

[MetalAlien]

not you specifically

 

[Amory]

Did it even have a point the first time? Didn't we just delay the inevitable?

No, I wouldn't agree with doing this again. Ever, frankly.

 

[iconmaster]

Mass protests have probably guaranteed herd immunity by now.

 

[zeorhymer]

Covid was so last week....literally.

 

[JordanN]

The second wave comes right around the United States election. Whoever is in charge is fucked.

Promise to keep things open = mass deaths happen anyway and people are angry.
Promise to lock things down = deaths are averted, but the economy is destroyed.

 

[Davey Cakes]

The issue with the first wave was minimizing the load on hospitals. I don’t think that’ll be as much of a concern if there’s a second wave.

Protect the elderly and maybe keep some restrictions for specific businesses. Otherwise, we just can’t afford another full shutdown.

 

[macfoshizzle]

nah.. open everything up. at this point, you have to let it run its course, kinda like italy now. be responsible and take precautions when going out and let the ones who are dumb asses die off.

 

[McHuj]

There's no way anyone will go for a second lockdown.

 

[JordanN]

The issue with the first wave was minimizing the load on hospitals. I don’t think that’ll be as much of a concern if there’s a second wave.

Protect the elderly and maybe keep some restrictions for specific businesses. Otherwise, we just can’t afford another full shutdown.

But it's not just the elderly. Anyone with secondary conditions is at risk.

Also, is it really a good idea to expose more people to this virus.? There are already rumors this disease was created in a lab, who knows what the long term impacts of this virus will look like?

 

[ManaByte]

I'm sure some people would love to keep the economy in the toilet and have a situation worse than the Great Depression going on until, oh, November 4th.

 

[JordanN]

There's no way anyone will go for a second lockdown.

I think they will after they see the numbers.

Like Brazil is rapidly exploding and they haven't hit the second wave yet.

The protests where a good distraction but for the rest of the world, the pandemic never stopped.

 

[diffusionx]

We shouldn't have done the first one, so no.

The way the media/government officials responded after the protests/riots/looting removed whatever legitimacy they had with regards to the lockdown.

 

[DanteFox]

The issue with the first wave was minimizing the load on hospitals. I don’t think that’ll be as much of a concern if there’s a second wave.

Protect the elderly and maybe keep some restrictions for specific businesses. Otherwise, we just can’t afford another full shutdown.

Yup. We seem to have forgotten what the point of the shutdown was. It was to prevent the healthcare system from being overloaded. Now the goalposts have shifted to "if there is even one more death, it's not worth it to open the economy.... except for BLM protests and looting."

A second wave, whatever that looks like, will only justify another shutdown if it looks like Italy in the first weeks where the hospitals were totally overrun. I think the more realistic scenario is that the elderly continue to maintain caution, and the rest of us, who have less than a fraction of a percent chance of dying from this disease, go about our lives with masks and caution, until we either gain herd immunity or a vaccine is developed.

We know more about this disease than we did when this first started. Shutting down the entire economy is just not good sense.

I think they will after they see the numbers.

Like Brazil is rapidly exploding and they haven't hit the second wave yet.

The protests where a good distraction but for the rest of the world, the pandemic never stopped.

Maybe Brazil will be fine with lockdown, but the U.S. won't, because we've already been at that point in the numbers. Remember that Brazil is entering its winter, we are entering our summer. When our cases were exploding, Brazil had relatively few cases. They're merely lagging behind the northern hemisphere.

 

[JordanN]

Maybe Brazil will be fine with lockdown, but the U.S. won't, because we've already been at that point in the numbers. Remember that Brazil is entering its winter, we are entering our summer. When our cases were exploding, Brazil had relatively few cases. They're merely lagging behind the northern hemisphere.

Wait, what?
Then why isn't Canada the same?

Or if hemisphere was the problem, then why does South Africa/Australia have a lot less cases than Brazil?

 

[Hulk_Smash]

But it's not just the elderly. Anyone with secondary conditions is at risk.

Also, is it really a good idea to expose more people to this virus.? There are already rumors this disease was created in a lab, who knows what the long term impacts of this virus will look like?

It’s inevitable. Let that sink in. You are not going to stop the virus. And because it’s a virus even a vaccine is not a cure. It’s just another way to treat people. And it’s 6-12 months away at best.

People will get sick and die from it. The recovery rates seem to be going up so, what we are doing now is already helping. But we need to accept that there will be deaths.

The riots have shown us what happens when you keep people locked up with release, nothing to do, and being broke.

So, no the extended shutdown was not a good thing so doing it again would be probably the biggest man made mistake since World War Two.

 

[cryptoadam]

Look at places getting hit now that are in the top of WM

1	USA	2,107,872	+18,171	116,626	+592	820,471	1,170,775	16,700	6,370	352	23,497,266	71,010	330,901,704
2	India	309,603	+11,320	8,890	+389	154,231	146,482	8,944	224	6	5,363,445	3,889	1,379,270,740
3	Russia	511,423	+8,987	6,715	+183	269,370	235,338	2,300	3,505	46	14,218,674	97,434	145,931,382
4	Chile	160,846	+6,754	2,870	+222	131,358	26,618	1,689	8,418	150	799,776	41,857	19,107,435
5	Pakistan	125,933	+6,397	2,463	+107	40,247	83,223	111	571	11	809,169	3,667	220,638,507
6	Mexico	133,974	+4,790	15,944	+587	98,064	19,966	378	1,040	124	369,362	2,866	128,859,025
7	Saudi Arabia	119,942	+3,921	893	+36	81,029	38,020	1,820	3,448	26	1,042,312	29,966	34,782,906
8	Brazil	809,398	+3,749	41,162	+104	396,692	371,544	8,318	3,809	194	1,364,423	6,421	212,479,860
9	Bangladesh	81,523	+3,471	1,095	+46	17,249	63,179	1	495	7	473,322	2,876	164,600,549
10	Iran	182,525	+2,369	8,659	+75	144,649	29,217	2,739	2,175	103	1,196,947	14,261	83,933,136
11	UK	292,950	+1,541	41,481	+202	N/A	N/A	492	4,316	611	6,434,713	94,813	67,867,577
12	Qatar	76,588	+1,517	70	+1	53,296	23,222	229	27,277	25	280,665	99,959	2,807,805
13	Ecuador	45,778	+1,338	3,828	+108	22,679	19,271	219	2,597	217	128,175	7,271	17,627,809
14	Turkey	175,218	+1,195	4,778	+15	149,102	21,338	664	2,079	57	2,541,903	30,157	84,289,552
15	Oman	21,071	+1,117	96	+7	7,489	13,486	92	4,133	19	133,029	26,092	5,098,511

Most of these countries in the top 15 ourside of US/UK/Iran/Turkey were LTTP as far as their outbreaks go. They all had more time than Italy/US/Canada to be prepared and do lock downs and the virus is still going crazy.

There really doesn't seem to be a way to stop it. Mitigating it seems like it will just delay the inevitable of the infection getting around.

The US should adopt mask wearing and take care of hot spots and spikes. But if Miami Dade is having an outbreak why should Seattle have to shut down?

 

[diffusionx]

It’s inevitable. Let that sink in. You are not going to stop the virus. And because it’s a virus even a vaccine is not a cure. It’s just another way to treat people. And it’s 6-12 months away at best.

People will get sick and die from it. The recovery rates seem to be going up so, what we are doing now is already helping. But we need to accept that there will be deaths.

The riots have shown us what happens when you keep people locked up with release, nothing to do, and being broke.

So, no the extended shutdown was not a good thing so doing it again would be probably the biggest man made mistake since World War Two.

You can go back to the early days of this and a lot of the prominent people said, basically, everyone's gonna get this thing. Which is of course true. It's a goddamn virus. Luckily, this does not appear to be a particularly vigorous one. A huge percentage of people (30%-50%) get it and show no symptoms. It kills virtually nobody who is relatively healthy and under the age of 50 (in other words, most of the working population). The truth is that as much as 10x-100x more people have gotten it than we know, and pretty much all those people made it through fine. And now, we have way more info about how to treat it, what good practice is, etc.

Maybe someday we will come across a virus we need to shut down society for. COVID-19 is not it.

 

[Hulk_Smash]

You can go back to the early days of this and a lot of the prominent people said, basically, everyone's gonna get this thing. Which is of course true. It's a goddamn virus. Luckily, this does not appear to be a particularly vigorous one. A huge percentage of people (30%-50%) get it and show no symptoms. It kills virtually nobody who is relatively healthy and under the age of 50 (in other words, most of the working population). The truth is that as much as 10x-100x more people have gotten it than we know, and pretty much all those people made it through fine. And now, we have way more info about how to treat it, what good practice is, etc.

Maybe someday we will come across a virus we need to shut down society for. COVID-19 is not it.

Dude I honestly think I contracted Rona back in February and spread it to everyone in my family, including my elderly in-laws and parents. They really really struggled with it. All of them when to see a doctor about it at one time. Had most of the symptoms, but can’t be certain because we weren’t tested.

 

[thefool]

Science is pointing to no.
We reacted late but (at the same time) preventively over something we didn't understood. Data is showing we might have fucked up, but I can't really blame decision makers. They would deserve the criticism if they fucked up again tho.

 

[diffusionx]

Science is pointing to no.
We reacted late but (at the same time) preventively over something we didn't understood. Data is showing we might have fucked up, but I can't really blame decision makers. They would deserve the criticism if they fucked up again tho.

I hear this a lot, and I am sympathetic to the viewpoint, but there was plenty of reason to believe we could reopen much sooner than we did/are doing.

Eight Reasons to End the Lockdowns Now - Jonathan Geach, M.D. - Medium

archived 11 Apr 2020 16:35:48 UTC

archive.is

That article was written on April 10th, and it's worth noting, not one of those points has been proven to be untrue/false/misguided, while virtually everything the doomsayers were saying in April has. It's now June 12th and most of the country is still in some form of the lockdown. Utterly insane.

 

[nush]

Despite predictions there's been no second wave in China, some schools are already opened and most of the restrictions have been lifted. But China locked everything down (Too late OC) and they didn't decide to crowd beaches parks or hold protests. Maybe that's why.

 

[Valonquar]

As a sysadmin that works from home for the rest of the year, they can shut everything down and it won't effect me at all.

 

[DragoonWalker]

No, effect of the 1st shutdown on the economy devastating. Look at all the job loss and sectors affected. Damage from another lockdown unimaginable. Covid is just something people have to cope with going forward, vaccine or not, like all other infectious diseases that already exist.

 

[Birdo]

The first lockdown should never have even happened. Even leading Doctors agree.

An in-between is the best option. Maintain distancing and limits on crowds.

 

[Woo-Fu]

Lockdown the at risk people, let everybody else go to work.

 

[SurprisedPikachu]

Fuck no, we are never letting them shutdown the economy again.

 

[Mohonky]

As a sysadmin that works from home for the rest of the year, they can shut everything down and it won't effect me at all.

It will if you cant get shipping state to state.

Did it even have a point the first time? Didn't we just delay the inevitable?

No, I wouldn't agree with doing this again. Ever, frankly.

Delaying is the point. Rather than getting a huge surge in cases that overwhelm the health system, the point is to try and keep the numbers low enough that there is enough help to go around as and when it's needed, rather than everyone needing help at the same time.

They don't expect that everyone will just stop getting it, its about making it more manageable.

 

[Tesseract]

nope, no more

 

[SurprisedPikachu]

Delaying is the point. Rather than getting a huge surge in cases that overwhelm the health system, the point is to try and keep the numbers low enough that there is enough help to go around as and when it's needed, rather than everyone needing help at the same time.

They don't expect that everyone will just stop getting it, its about making it more manageable.

Those same experts are saying that shutting down did nothing to delay it. So this was all pointless.

 

[Amory]

Delaying is the point. Rather than getting a huge surge in cases that overwhelm the health system, the point is to try and keep the numbers low enough that there is enough help to go around as and when it's needed, rather than everyone needing help at the same time.

They don't expect that everyone will just stop getting it, its about making it more manageable.

I get why we did it. I live in a major city and my fiance is an ER nurse so the goal of flattening the curve hasn't been lost on me.

But realistically, there are still way more people who haven't been exposed than people who have, even after the shutdown. A shutdown which has done an immeasurable amount of damage to small business (and not much damage to large businesses, resulting in a massive wealth transfer) which we haven't even begun to feel the effects of.

So ultimately I think the shutdown was mostly misguided, with the exception that now we know the virus is here, it's serious, and we've had some time to mitigate and prepare for it. That's important.

But another shutdown? No, I wouldn't support that. I think we will need to all live in this 'new normal' for a long time, but this country was never going to have the appetite for a shutdown-based solution to keeping COVID under control. We'll have to do that actively not passively.

 

[poppabk]

Did it even have a point the first time? Didn't we just delay the inevitable?

No, I wouldn't agree with doing this again. Ever, frankly.

It's depressing that every time a crisis is averted there are a whole bunch of people who immediately assume there was no point in acting like there was ever any danger. You always see these morons stood on their rooftops while people have to risk their lives to save them because that one other time the predicted hurricane changed course.
Let's say we have a virus that spreads like Covid-19 and is asymptomatic for two weeks but after that it kills like Ebola - your saying it would be best to let 10 million die than shut down?

 

[Amory]

It's depressing that every time a crisis is averted there are a whole bunch of people who immediately assume there was no point in acting like there was ever any danger. You always see these morons stood on their rooftops while people have to risk their lives to save them because that one other time the predicted hurricane changed course.
Let's say we have a virus that spreads like Covid-19 and is asymptomatic for two weeks but after that it kills like Ebola - your saying it would be best to let 10 million die than shut down?

I expanded on my view in a later post, but regardless the country is already reopening. So shutting down was a half measure at best, which is all it ever could've been.

There will be a second wave and if they try to shut things down again there will be riots.

The benefit of doing it once was to give us time to prepare for the second and third and fourth waves. And that has value. But shutting down again is not viable.

 

[TaySan]

I'm convinced if we did things right the first time instead of half assing it we wouldn't need to have a drastic second shutdown. My state(AZ) has some the biggest rises in cases in the country for this reason.

 

[TheSadRanger]

It's depressing that every time a crisis is averted there are a whole bunch of people who immediately assume there was no point in acting like there was ever any danger. You always see these morons stood on their rooftops while people have to risk their lives to save them because that one other time the predicted hurricane changed course.
Let's say we have a virus that spreads like Covid-19 and is asymptomatic for two weeks but after that it kills like Ebola - your saying it would be best to let 10 million die than shut down?

The problem is shit became so politicized that it's impossible to gain public attention on it now.

The hardcore left is now blaming people eating at Arby's when there's like 8 people there for furthering the outbreak when they're out in mass protests huddled together for hours on end in the thousands every day for nearly two weeks straight.

Ya the right went a bit far with their protests but at least in some places they were just in their cars and it only lasted for about a weekend. The left has full blown fucking lost it's marbles.

I fully blame the media to, as crazy as it sounds I'm starting to think Trump was fucking right when he said that media is the enemy of the people. They laid off covid for three weeks like it's nothing and fueling the fire for the protests and are now taking covid seriously again when it's starting to surge.

 

[diffusionx]

It's depressing that every time a crisis is averted there are a whole bunch of people who immediately assume there was no point in acting like there was ever any danger. You always see these morons stood on their rooftops while people have to risk their lives to save them because that one other time the predicted hurricane changed course.
Let's say we have a virus that spreads like Covid-19 and is asymptomatic for two weeks but after that it kills like Ebola - your saying it would be best to let 10 million die than shut down?

We knew, by mid-April, that (A) the models were wrong, that (B) COVID-19 was not as deadly as first thought, (C) our hospital systems were capable of dealing with this, and (D) the lockdown was destroying the economic, mental, and physical health of citizens.

Even taking into account that the lockdown was the best option at the time given the available info (I don’t believe it, but let’s go with it), we should have been opening things up on April 20th or so. We should have been 100% back to normal by Memorial Day. Yet it’s June 12th and, again, everybody is locked down to some extent.

 

[Tesseract]

I'm convinced if we did things right the first time instead of half assing it we wouldn't need to have a drastic second shutdown. My state(AZ) has some the biggest rises in cases in the country for this reason.

we learned as we went, posthoc revisionist thinking is lame

 

[Stouffers]

Should we? I don’t know.
Will we? Probably not.

 

[JohnHornbuckle]

No. If you want to be 100% safe stay home. If you want to be somewhat safe wear a mask and avoid large gatherings. If you want to test your luck go about your normal life.

 

[xellos2099alpha]

I think people are missing the point. Even if there is no lockdown... PEOPLE WON"T BE OUT SHOPPING AND EATTING. I do not believe it is inevitable that everyone get the virus. It ios because peopel REFUSE to be completely lock up for 1 month to destory the virus

 

[Tesseract]

people can do whatever they want, i'm done with the quarantine

 

[GAMETA]

I think they will after they see the numbers.

Like Brazil is rapidly exploding and they haven't hit the second wave yet.

The protests where a good distraction but for the rest of the world, the pandemic never stopped.

Guess what? We're getting protests against racism here too, because you know, the brazillian left can't see you guys doing stuff and not copy it... gotta be progressive, man.

And we haven't reached peak on Covid yet, and it doesn't seem to be slowing down, and the same left that annoyed the fuck out of everyone to not go to work and stay home is now posting instagram stories in their protests during the worst time possible.


Hopefully it won't be as bad as it seems, but I don't know, man... My father got it, he's 7 days in since the symptoms and test and seems fine, no fever anymore and no difficulty breathing... he may be experiencing some side effects of HCQ, but we don't know for sure yet if it's not the virus...

 

[GAMETA]

I didn't know you americans were making fun of people wearing masks... I mean, I don't get what's the big deal... Watching JRE today it seems you perceive using masks as a pussy thing, which is pretty funny because it's become the norm where I live and no such conception to be seem. It's actually quite the contrary, you'll be looked down at and prohibited of entering stores and buildings if you're not wearing one, even in the street most people are using and it's just become a normal thing.

 

[Moogle11]

Somewhere in between. Shutdown only if that fails and hospitals are getting overwhelmed and/or death rates going up.

That can work if people distance where possible and wear masks when not. We’re seeing more evidence that masks can limit spread like that case where two Great Clips stylists in Missouri worked while sick for days and ended up positive and exposing up to 140 people. It’s been a couple weeks since that and I read the other day that the county health department confirmed no positive cases from those exposures and that the two stylists, their coworkers and all clients who were potentially exposed had worn masks and that was credited with there being no spread.

Unfortunately there were a lot of image of Memorial Day crowds and protest crowds with a lot of people with no masks and if that continues things may get worse than the first wave.

 

[Come On Tars]

Fuck no

 

[Lrnex]

It’s not going to happen. People were locked away all Spring, you aren’t going to be able to keep us cooped up the rest of Summer.

I’m pretty alright with my living room staying as an office though. Not commuting everyday is actually pretty awesome

 

[Goro Majima]

I think they should take whatever reasonable precautions based on the scope and intensity of a hypothetical second wave.

The system of governors coordinating with local municipalities to address localized outbreaks should continue unabated. I’m just not sure if it’s necessary to preemptively shut down entire states when we’re much more prepared, educated, and expecting of further outbreaks.

 

[Hypnosekroete]

No, just let the virus do its work.
It would be over in 6 months and not spread out over years. A vaccine isnt sure, maybe we never get one and it will be a rushed cocktail that may have worse sideeffects than the virus.

 

[Rat Rage]

No, just let everyone die. How is this even a question?

 

[Roronoa Zoro]

I'm sure some people would love to keep the economy in the toilet and have a situation worse than the Great Depression going on until, oh, November 4th.

Yeah I think democratic governors will shut down and keep things down until after election. Then everyone will say how trump tanked things then give Biden a bunch of credit for the inevitable rebound when things fully reopen and the eventual vaccine