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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
tarius1210 said:
I'm telling you this is an exact replay what happened in July. I can see this stock nosediving headed into the close. Then news comes out after 8pm saying that they were thrown another lifeline. Anyone willing to take a gamble on this one?

I hear you on that. But it's totally irresponsible for Cramer to recommend the stock solely on the premise that there's no way it's going bankrupt.

I would have no problem with him say that "hey, take a chance on this one, be careful it could go to zero." He didn't say that. In fact, he said there's no chance it could go to zero.
 

Ether_Snake

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Yeah I read about how GE was gonna sell NBC, I think this past weekend, on ZH.
 

Tarazet

Member
Spruce Moose said:
What's the difference between CIT and Citigroup C?

CIT is primarily a commercial bank. They lend to businesses and do durable goods financing. When I bought my piano, my loan was through CIT. Citigroup does that as well but is primarily a money center bank.
 

Ovid

Member
Dolla Dolla said:
tarius1210, are you still holding CBAI? That one is down 20% this morning.
Yeah, I sold most of it during the second dip yesterday. Still holding a few shares though.

I knew today would be a bad day for the markets.
 

Tarazet

Member
Good, my LYG calls got assigned. Now I can use that money for something else. Waiting for E*Trade to approve my Lv 3 options trading.
 

Tarazet

Member
tarius1210 said:
Hey Sonarat (I mean Tarazet) you changed your user name. At first I thought someone stole your avatar.

Yep. It was high time to change to something that people could actually spell.
 

Ovid

Member
I see Mad Catz (MCZ) finally dropped below $0.35. I wish I could pick up some shares but GS has all of my money.
 

Ovid

Member
So earnings season kicks off this week. Market moving companies that are reporting are: Family Dollar (FDO), PepsiCo (PEP), Costco (COST), Alcoa (AA), Ruby Tuesday (RT) and Marriott International (MR).

The big one is Alcoa which reports on Wednesday. Their earnings report will set the course for the day and/or maybe the rest of the week.

I don't know what to think of FDO. I made good money with them last quarter but they missed their sales goals in August. Same stores sales were up though. I'll make a decision on Tuesday.

AMD was down 9% last week. Is it a buy? They report earnings next week.

Goldman owed $1 billion if CIT goes bankrupt: report
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) would be due a $1 billion payment if troubled commercial lender CIT Group (CIT.N) were to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, the Financial Times reported on Sunday, citing people familiar with the matter.

The report said Goldman would be owed the payment under a $3 billion rescue finance package it gave to CIT in June 2008, before the U.S. government bought $2.33 billion of CIT preferred shares in December.

According to the FT, CIT "would be required to pay a make-whole amount" that totals $1 billion under that agreement.

Goldman is likely to agree to allow CIT to delay payment on some of the amount, according to the report. Beyond the $1 billion payment from its rescue package, Goldman would also receive payment from credit insurance it holds if CIT were to go bankrupt.

Goldman and CIT could not be reached for comment.
I wonder what will happen. :D
 

Ether_Snake

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None of what I own is reporting this week.

I have nothing I'm interested in buying either, not for the foreseeable future anyway.

I don't know what to do really. Might as well invest some, but I don't know in what. Anything with guaranteed returns have terrible interest rates, not even worth it.
 
Two stocks I might possibly try to flip tomorrow are OMCY and MCII.

OMCY news:
Omnicity Corp. announced that it has been awarded its first contract to provide broadband services to the State of Indiana. Omnicity Corp. was the winning bidder in an RFP to provide services for the Department of Natural Resources (DNR) with the State of Indiana.
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/keyDevelopments?rpc=66&symbol=OMCY.OB&timestamp=20091004195200

MCII news:
Mariner's Choice International, Inc. (Pink Sheets:MCII) has entered into another international distribution partnership to cover the islands of the Bahamas. This distribution partner is a joint cooperative of a leading specialty resort operation and a marine products retailer and service provider.
http://www.globenewswire.com/news.html?d=174541

Quick potential 10% plus gains on these two. I might have to jump in.
 

Zyzyxxz

Member
tarius1210 said:
So earnings season kicks off this week. Market moving companies that are reporting are: Family Dollar (FDO), PepsiCo (PEP), Costco (COST), Alcoa (AA), Ruby Tuesday (RT) and Marriott International (MR).

The big one is Alcoa which reports on Wednesday. Their earnings report will set the course for the day and/or maybe the rest of the week.

I don't know what to think of FDO. I made good money with them last quarter but they missed their sales goals in August. Same stores sales were up though. I'll make a decision on Tuesday.

AMD was down 9% last week. Is it a buy? They report earnings next week.

Goldman owed $1 billion if CIT goes bankrupt: report

I wonder what will happen. :D

Wow already Q3? Time to start looking for some good buys.

I'm not sure if I would buy AMD, I don't think they have much to report in terms of profits.

Also if Goldman went belly up I'd be happy, those manipulating bastards can go to hell.
 

Ovid

Member
Zyzyxxz said:
I'm not sure if I would buy AMD, I don't think they have much to report in terms of profits.
Well, there up 5% today.

Lasercard (LCRD) reports at the end of the month. Keep an eye on this company.
 

Ether_Snake

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Not sure how accurate this is:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/the-demise-of-the-dollar-1798175.html

In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.

Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars.

The plans, confirmed to The Independent by both Gulf Arab and Chinese banking sources in Hong Kong, may help to explain the sudden rise in gold prices, but it also augurs an extraordinary transition from dollar markets within nine years.

In a clear sign of China's growing financial muscle, the president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, yesterday pleaded with Beijing to let the yuan appreciate against a sliding dollar and, by extension, loosen China's reliance on US monetary policy, to help rebalance the world economy and ease upward pressure on the euro.

More at the link.
 

Ovid

Member
Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Intel Corp. may this quarter lead companies worldwide to the first profit increases in more than two years, ending the longest earnings recession on record.

Buoyed by finance and semiconductors, profits at the world’s biggest companies are projected to grow 63 percent in the final three months of 2009, snapping nine straight quarterly declines.

In the third quarter just completed, earnings for companies in the S&P 500 Index may drop 23 percent from a year ago, when a lending freeze led to the worst financial crisis since the 1930s, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Standard & Poor’s and Bloomberg. Alcoa Inc. is the first member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to report on Oct. 7.

“Most management teams are seeing a pulse in their business,” said Lawrence Creatura, a portfolio manager at Federated Clover Investment Advisors, which oversees $407 billion. “Last year at this time markets were rigid with fear, as was the consumer. It’s going to be pretty easy to do better than that even if the economy is firing on one cylinder.”

The fourth-quarter may be an “inflection point” that signals a turn in profit, said Creatura, who is based in Rochester, New York.

JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Intel’s fourth-quarter gains will be marked by easy comparisons to last year, when credit markets seized and banks choking on billions of dollars in real- estate losses stopped lending. U.S. gross domestic product shrank 5.4 percent a year ago and consumer spending stalled.
bloomberg.com
 

Ether_Snake

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I was planning to buy some ABX this morning but too late now, I'll wait for things to go back down a bit, hopefully.
 

kathode

Member
Bought some calls (NFLX, MSFT) a day before the big crash last week. Finally crossing breakeven territory for me. Hooray!
 

Ovid

Member
So Family Dollar got upgraded this morning to outperform. It's currently up 5%. If it falls at the close I'll pick up some shares. If they meet or exceed analyst estimates tomorrow then this stock will be in the 30s again.
 

Ovid

Member
What happened to financials today? They're falling like a rock.

Weird, market went south at exactly 12:45pm EST.
 

Tarazet

Member
I just got Lv 3 options privileges on my E*Trade Roth IRA. I'm already being allowed to sell cash-secured puts and buy long calls and puts, but the fancy spreads don't seem to be in place yet. Looking for an investment that makes sense. ETFC puts are fetching mighty high premiums right about now.
 

Ether_Snake

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The “Real” Economy Is Dying: Q4 “Going to Be a Bloodbath,” Whalen Says

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticke...ying-Q4-"Going-to-Be-a-Bloodbath"-Whalen-Says

"Why is liquidity going into the financial sector? It's because the real economy is dying [and] everyone is fleeing into the stocks and bonds because they're liquid at the moment," Whalen says. "That's not a good sign."

The banking sector's assets shrunk by about $300 billion per quarter in the first half of 2009, a sign of banks hoarding cash in anticipation of additional future losses, according to Whalen. "The real economy is shrinking because of a lack of credit."

The shrinkage will continue into 2010, Whalen predicts, suggesting the banking sector hasn't yet seen the peak in loan losses. Institutional Risk Analytics forecasts the FDIC will ultimately need $300 billion to $400 billion to recoup losses to its bank insurance fund. (In other words, the $45 billion the FDIC sought to raise last week by asking banks to prepay fees is just a drop in the bucket.)

"Investors should think about this because the fourth quarter in the banking industry is going to be a bloodbath," says Whalen, who believes smaller and regional banks like Hudson City Bancorp may come into favor vs. larger peers, which have dramatically outperformed since the March lows.

"When you see the markets rallying when the real economy is shrinking that tells you this [recovery] is not going to be very enduring," Whalen says.
 

kathode

Member
Thank you Alcoa for having solid earnings and sending everything up. I sold out of MSFT calls for a 27% gain, my first profitable options trade in maybe two months :lol
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
kathode said:
Thank you Alcoa for having solid earnings and sending everything up. I sold out of MSFT calls for a 27% gain, my first profitable options trade in maybe two months :lol

OMG TEH INSIDE INFORMATIONS
 

kaizoku

I'm not as deluded as I make myself out to be
Hi all, just curious but how much time do you guys spend looking after your stocks and researching etc? Do any of you do it full time or is it purely a sparetime thing?

Do you guys talk about how much you've made/lost or is that taboo? If so no worries, just wondering how other guys have done since they started this stuff and how they apply themselves.

I started investing in January and have made £15k paper profit as of close today, really pleased as my initial target (which was basically meant to be an absurdly ambitious joke) was £9.6k by December.

I've more than doubled my money and what was a tidy little earner on the side has become a very serious attempt to make as much money as possible to buy a house. I just need to double it all again a few more times :lol

of course by the time I have enough for a house I'll probably think "if I can just double it a few more times I can be a millionaire!"
 

Tarazet

Member
kaizoku said:
Hi all, just curious but how much time do you guys spend looking after your stocks and researching etc? Do any of you do it full time or is it purely a sparetime thing?

For me, it's retirement investments. I don't play around with petty cash. The thing that people don't realize is that you can invest in options and derivatives as long-term investments. I have three short options positions, buy-writes, and they're all dated at January 2011.

The beautiful thing about buy-writes is, you get the money from selling the options deposited in your account right away and you can reinvest it elsewhere. Then gradually, the time value of the options erodes and your gains are solidified. Or alternately, if the underlying stock shoots way up, then it can decimate the time value all at once, leaving you only on the hook for the intrinsic value. That's a great thing.
 

yoopoo

Banned
AEZ (American Oil & Gas) was up 15% today - 34% since I bought it few weeks ago. Not sure why its going up though...still fairly cheap @ $2.59
 

kathode

Member
SDVI is up 40% today! Now worth TWO whole tenths of a penny. That makes me only out about 80% of my money on this one, but it's coming back. Gonna be rich, I tell you! Rich!!!
 
Was anyone holding HMDI before today? Stock soared to the heavens. Someone had to become rich.

It closed on Thursday at .001, and on Friday the damn thing rocketed it's way to 0.50, then settled at about 0.23, for a ridiculous gain of 47,000%.
 

Ether_Snake

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That's crazy. If you had 1000$ in there, you are now a millionaire.
 
Dolla Dolla said:
Was anyone holding HMDI before today?

I have some HDMI cables.
jqnfhg.gif


What do you guys think of WAMUQ? I'm thinking of buying WAMUQ stocks for 500 - 1000 Euros.
 

Ovid

Member
Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) upgraded this morning to upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform. Its up 9% in early trading.

AMD upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Its up 5%.

U.S. Can’t Trace Foreign Visitors on Expired Visas

DALLAS — Eight years after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and despite repeated mandates from Congress, the United States still has no reliable system for verifying that foreign visitors have left the country. New concern was focused on that security loophole last week, when Hosam Maher Husein Smadi, a 19-year-old Jordanian who had overstayed his tourist visa, was accused in court of plotting to blow up a Dallas skyscraper.

Last year alone, 2.9 million foreign visitors on temporary visas like Mr. Smadi’s checked in to the country but never officially checked out, immigration officials said. While officials say they have no way to confirm it, they suspect that several hundred thousand of them overstayed their visas.

Over all, the officials said, about 40 percent of the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants in the United States came on legal visas and overstayed.

Mr. Smadi’s case has brought renewed calls from both parties in Congress for Department of Homeland Security officials to complete a universal electronic exit monitoring system.

Representative Lamar Smith of Texas, the senior Republican on the House Judiciary Committee, said the Smadi case “points to a real need for an entry and exit system if we are serious about reducing illegal immigration.”

Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York and chairman of the Judiciary Committee’s subcommittee on immigration, said he would try to steer money from the economic stimulus program to build an exit monitoring system.

Since the Sept. 11 attacks, immigration authorities, with more than $1 billion from Congress, have greatly improved and expanded their systems to monitor foreigners when they arrive. But despite several Congressional authorizations, there are no biometric inspections or a systematic follow-up to confirm that foreign visitors have departed.
nytimes.com

Lasercard (LCRD)
 

Ovid

Member
I can't believe the Dow is almost at 10,000 again. When it was at 7,000 I thought it would be years before we would reach 5 digits again.
 

Ether_Snake

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BIDU is at the highest it has ever been.

BTW:

California heats up incentives for solar power

If California and China are doing it, expect the rest of the world to follow. I think solar is going to be big soon. I have some STP shares that are in the red but I'm keeping them until I see high returns:p
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
tarius1210 said:
I can't believe the Dow is almost at 10,000 again. When it was at 7,000 I thought it would be years before we would reach 5 digits again.


Things were never as bad as people made them seem after the FED and the gov't spent trillions of dollars.
 

Ovid

Member
I hate Meredith Whitney. I feel like this woman just took money out of my pocket.

Goldman Sachs Cut to ‘Neutral’ by Meredith Whitney
Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the biggest U.S. securities firm before converting to a bank last year, was cut to “neutral” by Meredith Whitney, as the analyst dropped her only “buy” recommendation.

Whitney, who correctly predicted in 2007 that Citigroup Inc. would cut its dividend, didn’t update her price estimate on the shares in a summary note distributed to investors today. Further details on the downgrade weren’t immediately available.

The New York-based analyst upgraded Goldman Sachs to “buy” on July 13, since when the stock has risen 34 percent, compared with a 29 percent increase for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Investment Banking & Brokerage Index. The founder of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group LLC said on Sept. 10 that Goldman Sachs “still has a lot of gas in its tank.”

Goldman Sachs shares dropped 0.9 percent to $188.46 in German trading as of 10 a.m. in Frankfurt.

Goldman Sachs, which is due to report third-quarter results on Oct. 15, may say it earned $4.46 a share in the period, according to the report. The New York-based bank posted record earnings in the second quarter.

Goldman Sachs’s profit probably almost tripled to $2.3 billion, according to the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Revenue from trading has surged to a record as competitors including Morgan Stanley scaled back their riskiest bets.

Goldman Sachs has climbed 125 percent this year on the New York Stock Exchange, the largest increase among the biggest U.S. banks. The bank repaid $10 billion to the U.S. Treasury in June.

Goldman Sachs on Oct. 7 was rated “buy” in new coverage at Deutsche Bank AG, which said the firm may boost market share in investment banking and trading. A day earlier, the bank was upgraded to “outperform” from “underperform” by CLSA analyst Mike Mayo, who also said it may be a “long-term market-share winner.”
She changes her rating two days before they report? Come on...if they are making record profits why would you cut their rating? It doesn't make sense.

I'm not a huge fan of TheStreet.com, but I'll go with this for now:

Don't Be a Lemming on Goldman Sachs
Whitney was also one of the few analysts to predict major problems at Citigroup (C Quote) in 2007, before subprime losses engulfed the bank. Still, those who ignore her bearish call may benefit; Whitney isn't alone, nor is she infallible. Last week Deutsche Bank initiated Goldman at buy, and another respected analyst, CLSA's Michael Mayo, upgraded its shares to outperform.

Though analysts' estimates range widely for most of the large U.S. banks, like Bank of America (BAC Quote), Citi, Wells Fargo (WFC Quote), JPMorgan Chase (JPM Quote) or Morgan Stanley (MS Quote), and more follow Goldman than the rest, the company's range of forecasts is much more narrow and profitable.

Analysts expect the firm to earn anywhere from $3.82 per share to $4.75 per share in profit, vs. a range of 32 cents per share to 65 cents per share for JPMorgan. Analysts see Citi losing anywhere between 7 cents per share to 51 cents per share, and see a loss of between 33 cents per share to a profit of 8 cents per share for BofA.

Whitney expects Goldman to have earned $4.46 per share last quarter, to earn $4.60 per share this quarter, and continue growing profits next year. But she also believes those earnings are priced in for the time being. Why, is anyone's guess.

Goldman closed at $190.15 on Monday
 

Tarazet

Member
I closed my short call position on UNG at five cents below the theoretical value, for a gain of about 40% after commissions. There was news that they would be moving away from natural gas futures because of regulations, which drove natural gas futures down, which drove the ETF down, and the shorts are out in force. Still holding the underlying stock.
 

Ether_Snake

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Looks like we might hit it today.

RTP now up 5%, over 190. Horray, I made a good bet on this one (bought at around 147 or so if I recall).
 

Anno

Member
I'm sure this has been asked a lot, but does anyone have advice for someone looking to open their first brokerage account? I've been investing through my 401k for a few years but am dissatisfied with the limited options. Currently 15% of my salary goes into it and I'm getting good returns so I think I'm happy with that and would like to diversify to something I have more immediate and varied access to. So far I've spent a few days reading through The Motley Fool and advice at aaii.org, but I'd like to hear GAFs thoughts. I have to start slow, maybe $500 initially and another $100 a month, but you gotta star somewhere I guess.
 

Futureman

Member
I don't really know where to post this but...

I think it's kind of funny that Chase has cancelled two of my overdraft fees on my credit card in the past 6 months. Are they desperate right now not to lose customers or something? I thought for sure they wouldn't overturn them, but I figured I might as well call, and it worked. Has it generally always been like this? Can these reversed overdraft fees be seen by credit reports or something?
 

Tarazet

Member
Futureman said:
I don't really know where to post this but...

I think it's kind of funny that Chase has cancelled two of my overdraft fees on my credit card in the past 6 months. Are they desperate right now not to lose customers or something? I thought for sure they wouldn't overturn them, but I figured I might as well call, and it worked. Has it generally always been like this? Can these reversed overdraft fees be seen by credit reports or something?

It's all down to your phone skills mang.. for what it's worth, I've never had to pay a fee to a bank for anything, and I've screwed up plenty.
 
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