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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

Of course it can be rewarding - by day-trading you are exposing yourself to quite a bit of volatility, and if you can catch the upswing you'll make quite a bit of money very fast. But it's also EXTREMELY difficult to be successful at, and no beginning investor should focus on it before spending a long time learning what they're doing. And I completely disagree with your assertion in your last statement that long-term investing is just as risky as day-trading in today's market.

I didn't say long term investing was just as risky. I said the market has been mostly flat for longer-term holdings. It's been the case for me and most of my coworkers whom I share 401k info with. That does not imply it's risky, just that theres been very little advantage to going long these past few years.

I'm also not advocating day trading for beginners. But it's perfectly ok for those who know what they're getting into and can afford to take chances. And it's not even that difficult to make money doing it. Certainly not all-caps difficult.
 

greyshark

Member
I didn't say long term investing was just as risky. I said the market has been mostly flat for longer-term holdings. It's been the case for me and most of my coworkers whom I share 401k info with. That does not imply it's risky, just that theres been very little advantage to going long these past few years.

I would agree with that, but your earlier statement of "long term gains can be wiped out overnight" is an extreme statement IMO.

I'm also not advocating day trading for beginners. But it's perfectly ok for those who know what they're getting into and can afford to take chances. And it's not even that difficult to make money doing it. Certainly not all-caps difficult.

I agree with this statement as well - but many of the posters in this thread are beginners. I feel that day-trading has been romanticized a bit by some posters here and was just hoping to remind people of the risks. Wouldn't you agree that putting a significant amount of money on a penny stock without proper experience is unnecessarily risky? I've seen some posters here do that with their first ever (or close to it) trades.
 
I would agree with that, but your earlier statement of "long term gains can be wiped out overnight" is an extreme statement IMO.



I agree with this statement as well - but many of the posters in this thread are beginners. I feel that day-trading has been romanticized a bit by some posters here and was just hoping to remind people of the risks. Wouldn't you agree that putting a significant amount of money on a penny stock without proper experience is unnecessarily risky? I've seen some posters here do that with their first ever (or close to it) trades.

Yeah, it was poorly worded in my first post. Still, all the gains I had YTD are definitely gone from my 401k after today, lol.

Totally agree that people shouldn't jump straight into active trading. Especially not penny stocks, you will lose 90% of the time.

It just seems to me that a lot of people default to 'day trading is bad', much like those who believe credit cards are inherently evil. You can exploit both if you're careful and savvy.


On a side note: I reaaaallllly want to buy INVN but I'm too chicken.
 

Ether_Snake

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If you take your money out of the market completely, it seems like you are missing out on bond returns. You didn't mean that you took your money from stocks and put it in bonds?

What you are doing really is following a monthly trend strategy, with your breakout point measured in returns. If you can picture a graph and two lines, each line representing returns for stocks, and returns for bonds, all you are doing is buying stocks when the stock line crosses the bond line, and selling stocks when the stock line crosses below the bond return line. You should really look into other technical analysis indicators for trend following. You could even compare weekly data, to capture even bigger moves.

As far as testing, you want to try out at least 5 years of data, and be mindful of what kind of conditions we had. Even if your model did good in the last 5 years, there is no guarantee that it will do good in the next 20.



This strategy is good because you are playing in the fears of people of the markets. You are trying to pick out tops and bottoms, so that when the market drops, you are in a less volatile investment, and when you think it is at the bottom, you get in to enjoy the upside. The danger of this strategy is that stocks stay in the gutter longer than you expected, and you lose your shirt from further down movements (or that you miss further upside).

Remember, stocks and bonds don't necessarily go in opposite directions. The point is diversification reduces volatility while providing hopefully similar returns.

jbgHg8JKefU9FC.jpg

I did the calculation with switch from stock to bonds too, the performance was worst, especially with transaction fees that doubled (sell+buy, on every switch).

Also, look at if you did SOS on a yearly basis instead, this one is quick to do. It would have almost consistently allowed one to get out at the start of bear periods, and get back in during bull periods.

Of course I don't claim the strategy is sound, I just did some tests and found the results interesting enough that I might apply it.

Following SOS, I'm supposed to stay cash in June, I think I will, lol...
 

sflufan

Banned
Make the bleeding stop!!!! I was hoping there would be a mini rally in the afternoon, but it looks like the pain is doubling down instead.

Do you realize the level of fear that's out there right now?

I mean, the 2-year yields on German/Swiss/Danish bonds have gone negative!
 

greyshark

Member
Yeah, it was poorly worded in my first post. Still, all the gains I had YTD are definitely gone from my 401k after today, lol.

Totally agree that people shouldn't jump straight into active trading. Especially not penny stocks, you will lose 90% of the time.

It just seems to me that a lot of people default to 'day trading is bad', much like those who believe credit cards are inherently evil. You can exploit both if you're careful and savvy.


On a side note: I reaaaallllly want to buy INVN but I'm too chicken.

I'm sure my 401(k) YTD gains are gone as well - but of course my overall 401k holdings have about matched the market returns since I've started. Just slow, steady growth as I continue to contribute.

I wouldn't say I default to 'day trading is bad', but I definitely default to 'day trading is scary'. I won't go near it, but I consider myself still a beginner as I've only been paying attention to this for about a year.
 
Do you realize the level of fear that's out there right now?

I mean, the 2-year yields on German/Swiss/Danish bonds have gone negative!

I don't think this generation of investors will ever be the same again. They have memories of 2008 always nagging them in the back of their heads so at the first sign of instability (which happens all the time in finance) they will start panicking. In the last 3 years we have had so many volatile periods and I'm not sure they were all justified.
 
I don't think this generation of investors will ever be the same again. They have memories of 2008 always nagging them in the back of their heads so at the first sign of instability (which happens all the time in finance) they will start panicking. In the last 3 years we have had so many volatile periods and I'm not sure they were all justified.

Every generation has had their equivalent. The real difference is that trading is so accessible these days. At the first time of trouble, the amateurs flip their lids (see: Facebook)

Grey shark: I've been investing in a 401k for about 7 years and I think my net return is close to 0%, no exaggeration. Pretty pathetic rate of return. Not saying it's like that do everyone, but the way the markets are manipulated these days just makes it hard to have steady overall growth like it used to be. By contrast, I've doubled the amount in my 'play' money account in just a little over a year.
 

Anno

Member
Well, I guess this might be the start of the buying opportunity I was hoping for. Lets those dividends reinvest well, maybe add to some WM and GE.
 

Piecake

Member
Well, I guess this might be the start of the buying opportunity I was hoping for. Lets those dividends reinvest well, maybe add to some WM and GE.

yup, put some money into VGTSX today. Might go lower, but cant say I really care when its at a 52 week low and really hasnt been lower since 2008. Damn good price
 
Individual stock portfolio down 4.3%. Doesn't help to Ford-heavy today.

Ford is a company I'd keep buying on the way down. Seems like they've turned a corner.

I think 4.3% is about par after today. I'm gonna transfer more cash to my brokerage account so I can go shopping next week.

Eyeing INVN, QCOM, ARMH, maybe more AAPL at these levels.
 
Sooo yeah, had I stuck with MVIS until it hit its high today of ~3.50 off my initial investment of about $8k, I would have made around ~$2.5k.

I'll take the easy $500 though. Such is life.
 

RevoDS

Junior Member
I've got my sights on Teavana (TEA) right now, I'm thinking it could be a good long-term buy at these levels.

It dropped over 20% this week after its earnings release came slightly short of expectations on revenue, but that's still a 27% increase from last year (and earnings per share were right on spot). That's brought its valuation down to earth, and because it's still fairly small, there could be a lot of upside as the company opens up new stores, not to mention that specialty tea is growing in popularity and awareness.

It's a different stock than what I'm used to buying (I usually pick my stocks a lot cheaper than that, I consider myself more of a value investor). The still relatively high valuation is a risk factor, but I believe it has enough growth ahead of it to make that moot over the long term.

Thoughts? Warnings?
 

Piecake

Member
I've got my sights on Teavana (TEA) right now, I'm thinking it could be a good long-term buy at these levels.

It dropped over 20% this week after its earnings release came slightly short of expectations on revenue, but that's still a 27% increase from last year (and earnings per share were right on spot). That's brought its valuation down to earth, and because it's still fairly small, there could be a lot of upside as the company opens up new stores, not to mention that specialty tea is growing in popularity and awareness.

It's a different stock than what I'm used to buying (I usually pick my stocks a lot cheaper than that, I consider myself more of a value investor). The still relatively high valuation is a risk factor, but I believe it has enough growth ahead of it to make that moot over the long term.

Thoughts? Warnings?

well, Tea-gaf apparently think that place sucks donkey butt (they try to screw over consumers by adding a ton of filler and always trying to sell more)
 

NYR

Member
GOOG looking pretty attractive at 570....Fell like a rock the last several days, always opened well lower than previous days close...
 
I'm sitting on some shares of mu right now. I bought really low but I'm trying to decide if I should get out now with a bit of profit or just hold on for the long term. Any advice?
 
I'm sitting on some shares of mu right now. I bought really low but I'm trying to decide if I should get out now with a bit of profit or just hold on for the long term. Any advice?

There's a real possibility that the market is about to turn the corner and become a bear market. A lot of people are calling for a rough summer, and I personally believe they are right. I've been cashing out of a lot of my positions, and am currently only long ARNA and AAPL.
 

Anno

Member
Not really sure what's going to come along to actually give us a boost anytime soon. I'm holding onto my nice dividend stocks and a couple small positions in speculative names that I don't think will really track the overall market. Looking to make some new buys into other dividend raisers as prices come down. MCD getting back into almost buy range.
 

James Sawyer Ford

Gold Member
I didn't say long term investing was just as risky. I said the market has been mostly flat for longer-term holdings. It's been the case for me and most of my coworkers whom I share 401k info with. That does not imply it's risky, just that theres been very little advantage to going long these past few years.

I'm also not advocating day trading for beginners. But it's perfectly ok for those who know what they're getting into and can afford to take chances. And it's not even that difficult to make money doing it. Certainly not all-caps difficult.

Net of fees and expenses day traders will do worse over time, on average, than a long-term holding of diversified index funds. I know plenty of day traders who have lost their entire savings. I'll take "being flat" over losing my shirt. Day traders also like to brag about their winnings and remain silent about their losses. One of the most successful investors of our time, Warren Buffet, had annualized gains of 20% over decades, which is roughly double (on an annualized basis) for what the market returned. That's why I always remain cautious of people that claim enormous double digit gains all the time that are into day trading. It's a mirage.

The market has been relatively flat for over a decade, but that just means that valuations are now much more attractive than they were in 1999. Valuations are an incredible value right now if you take into account the low interest rate environment.

401ks are supposed to be for extremely long term holding periods, 3 decades or more, so it makes no sense to worry about your stocks remaining flat for over a decade. That can happen with the stock market and it can happen with day trading. But over a 30 year period, historically returns have been 8% at the low end, to over 15% at the high end on an annualized basis. Why worry about one decade? If you're in the accumulation phase, you should be loading up on stocks.
 

James Sawyer Ford

Gold Member
Grey shark: I've been investing in a 401k for about 7 years and I think my net return is close to 0%, no exaggeration. Pretty pathetic rate of return. Not saying it's like that do everyone, but the way the markets are manipulated these days just makes it hard to have steady overall growth like it used to be. By contrast, I've doubled the amount in my 'play' money account in just a little over a year.

This is a complete fallacy. The market has NEVER given a "steady return". If the stock market did give a "steady return", then the returns for stocks would be lower and similar to bonds, which DO give a "steady return". The entire reason stocks give an out sized return is due to the equity risk premium.

Even in decades with significant growth (80s and 90s) you had periods where the market would crash, '87 is a prime example of volatility that was even worse than anything we've seen in recent memory.

Also, if you had simply invested in the S&P 500 for the past 7 years, you would have gained about 13% in price alone, not including the effect of dividends which have been an additional 1.6-2% per year.
 

Zyzyxxz

Member
There's a real possibility that the market is about to turn the corner and become a bear market. A lot of people are calling for a rough summer, and I personally believe they are right. I've been cashing out of a lot of my positions, and am currently only long ARNA and AAPL.

Yup seems AAPL can't do no wrong. Should have double down when it was falling back toward 500.
 

Ether_Snake

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Are you in your 60s? If not, why is your bond holding so large, especially in this environment?

Because it gives me a fixed 5%+ return which I think is fine at the current time for my 401k. It's usually 30% bonds. I can rebalance when I feel it's the right time to do so.

Small cap + bond can give me on average 8 to 10% a year.
 

James Sawyer Ford

Gold Member
Because it gives me a fixed 5%+ return which I think is fine at the current time for my 401k. It's usually 30% bonds. I can rebalance when I feel it's the right time to do so.

Small cap + bond can give me on average 8 to 10% a year.

Any bond with 5% fixed return in this environment is close to being just as risky as stocks.
 

Neo C.

Member
Preparing money for further investments. I guess the market is going down for a while, but it's hard to predict where/when the bottom is.
 

Ether_Snake

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Any bond with 5% fixed return in this environment is close to being just as risky as stocks.

It's a fixed-revenue mutual fund, it's fine. Better this than putting every in stocks or cash. I got stocks and gold outside my 401k anyway.

Preparing money for further investments. I guess the market is going down for a while, but it's hard to predict where/when the bottom is.

I see no reason for the bottom to be close by a month or two. China and Europe's situation, as well as the stagnation in the US, is a clear indicator that we are about to enter a new phase. I doubt such a transition would happen without going lower.

Look at the 10 year performance of the DOW. If 2008 was the biggest crisis since the Great Depression, why did it recover so quickly? It was unjustified since nothing has changed in terms of how the economy actually works, the trade imbalances remained the same, etc. That is about to change over the next five years.
 

Piecake

Member
I see no reason for the bottom to be close by a month or two. China and Europe's situation, as well as the stagnation in the US, is a clear indicator that we are about to enter a new phase. I doubt such a transition would happen without going lower.

Look at the 10 year performance of the DOW. If 2008 was the biggest crisis since the Great Depression, why did it recover so quickly? It was unjustified since nothing has changed in terms of how the economy actually works, the trade imbalances remained the same, etc. That is about to change over the next five years.

I think timing the market is futile. If anyone could consistently, actively managed mutual funds would actually be a wise choice
 

Ether_Snake

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It's not so much predicting where the market will be, but rather stating how the economy's foundations have actually not been improved since the crisis, hence no reason to expect the economy to do better on the short term. Markets went up during that time, they might go up again. But the economy itself can't support a high stock market for long currently.

Also James Sawyer Ford: if I look at everything I have invested (401k+savings account, etc.), bonds represent 40% of my investments.

Anyway I'm gonna follow SOS for the next month. So based on May, I'm staying cash this month.

edit: These are the bond funds I'm invested in:

http://www.google.com/finance?q=MUTF_CA:RBF1005
http://www.desjardinslifeinsurance....lutions/Documents/rates-return/funds_0248.pdf
 

Zyzyxxz

Member
It's a fixed-revenue mutual fund, it's fine. Better this than putting every in stocks or cash. I got stocks and gold outside my 401k anyway.



I see no reason for the bottom to be close by a month or two. China and Europe's situation, as well as the stagnation in the US, is a clear indicator that we are about to enter a new phase. I doubt such a transition would happen without going lower.

Look at the 10 year performance of the DOW. If 2008 was the biggest crisis since the Great Depression, why did it recover so quickly? It was unjustified since nothing has changed in terms of how the economy actually works, the trade imbalances remained the same, etc. That is about to change over the next five years.

We have media eager to declare that we are in recovery when in fact it could be a double dip recession or just a small uptick on a bigger slope downward.

It's basic economics that you don't know when a recession is over until it actually is by some time. Of course governments are eager to overstate minor growth rates as signals to end of recessions, it's all a mentality game it seems to me.
 

Ovid

Member
We have media eager to declare that we are in recovery when in fact it could be a double dip recession or just a small uptick on a bigger slope downward.

It's basic economics that you don't know when a recession is over until it actually is by some time. Of course governments are eager to overstate minor growth rates as signals to end of recessions, it's all a mentality game it seems to me.
What?
 

Ether_Snake

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What what? You don't know if a recession is actually over until some time after it is. Governments like to overstate temporary rises in employment or other positive numbers in order to boost their popularity. Current status of the economy shows no sign of having actually improved, fundamentals remained the same.
 

greyshark

Member
What what? You don't know if a recession is actually over until some time after it is. Governments like to overstate temporary rises in employment or other positive numbers in order to boost their popularity. Current status of the economy shows no sign of having actually improved, fundamentals remained the same.

What fundamentals are you referring to? The GDP has been increasing for the past 3 years.
 

Biff

Member
The fundamentals have gotten better though. Lending regulations have changed entirely. The employment crash corrected the fundamentals, regardless of what Occupy protesters may say. Executive compensation, the 1%, etc. is not and never was the problem.

I'm not saying we aren't in for a double dip.. I think it will get worse before it gets better. But to say everything is the same as was before is an extreme simplification. Once Europe is solved (and that's a HUGE "once"), the U.S. economy will steam ahead properly with a stronger foundation. If it wasn't for the Euro debt crisis, my opinion is that would already be happening now.

And just as a side note, because I feel like it: the social media crash would still have happened without Europe stalling the U.S. recovery. That is completely justified, and we haven't seen close to the bottom yet. If anything, Facebook should be glad Europe is there to shift attention away from the complete embarrassment that was its IPO.
 

Ether_Snake

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The fundamentals have not changed, yet:

#1- The US and other countries still compete with countries, such as China, that can unfairly exercise downward pressure on wages and their currency. This brings living standards down, reduces wage growth, and leads to job losses. As I have said countless times before: trading with China will lead you downward, them upward, until balance is reached, at which point trade levels between the two will normalize. This is only now starting to take place, as the Chinese economy begins to deteriorate, which will lead to higher levels of spending per capita by the government and boosting internal consumption. Basically this is the start of the Westernization of the Chinese workforce, with all the associated costs. But all of this will have come at a cost for the US over the past many years, and years to come until balance of trade is reached (which should, by then, have reduced the trade deficit).

#2- Students are still massively unemployed and debt-saddled. This will only begin to change as more people retire, but people are retiring later than ever, and the cost of retirement on the US government will be heavy, especially with low wage increases and hence low tax revenues from newly employed youth. The level of employment will remain highly dependent on #1.

#3- The US government did not use the crisis as an opportunity to kick-start the development of the green economy, among other sectors, effectively missing any future chance of doing so if the economy recovers. This will keep the US behind the curve on the matter, reducing employment potential for #2, for decades to come, unless some president suddenly ends up with the 1930s or Cold War-era justification to massively invest in these sectors. Times have changed, so it is highly unlikely that a president would get such an opportunity again in the next ten years, at least. There will be no "Invasion of the Killer Oil Barrels" to warrant massive spending in a green economy, especially not with the way politics are played in the US.

#4- The banking system was not reformed, it will continue to act in a way that threatens lasting economic prosperity for short term gains, especially due to the likely backing of the government during downturns.

I could go on.

The idea that improvements in Europe's economic situation would significantly help the US recovery is a big joke, this is Obama trying to save his campaign. The US' problems are first and foremost related to its inaction internally, mainly lack of proper spending. If improvements materialized due to European economic growth, it would only benefit the US in a way that would not safeguard US economic growth and stability over a decent period of time.
 

sflufan

Banned
There are significant STRUCTURAL problems with the US economy that are entirely unrelated to the Euro crisis. To name a few:
  • political paralysis in Washington
  • an infrastructure that is 2nd World in most places, rapidly approaching 3rd World in others
  • long-term unemployment that is on the verge of -- if not is already -- structural rather than cyclical

Even if the Euro crisis were to be resolved (HAR! HAR!), I fail to see how the US economy can "steam along" with these issues in play.
 
Any recovery from 2008 is on the back of the cash infusion by the Fed. The stock market rally, GDP, etc etc...

QE3 may come after Europe goes to shit, but each QE will have less and less of an effect until the Fed runs out of tools. The worst is yet to come.
 

Biff

Member
@Ether

#1 isn't at the start, it's already full-blown happening. MNCs have been pulling out of China after their labour comparative advantage turned sour probably around 4-5 years ago, maybe longer (and it's too late to try and dig up stats, sorry). What we are seeing now is something that has been in the works for years. It is a natural market correction easily predicted by any economist worth their salt.

#2 is a supply-demand correction that is, again, already happening. This largely isn't a structural unemployment issue. Yes there are SOME structural issues in terms of labour mismatches due to underwater mortgages... But those will be resolved as the market corrects itself. We've already seen expensive degrees take a nosedive due to saturation (law school enrollment is probably the best example). Arts degrees are next (probably well underway already). I would expect to see a rise in STEM degrees within the next 5 years, which will ultimately lead to assisting your #3 point.

#3 the U.S. government can't simply throw money into green research in a downturn. Keynes says that governments should spend... But on tried and true infrastructure improvements. That's exactly what they did in 2010 and 2011. I agree that the U.S. is lagging in this industry, absolutely. But the crisis was not the time to throw money into extremely risky investments. How much longer they will lag will depend largely on 2012 presidential platforms. If my STEM prediction is correct, this industry will naturally begin to thrive as an influx of STEM grads occurs in 4-6 years.

#4 is a matter of opinion. My opinion is biased, your opinion is biased. No point in debating here. November will be another crucial player in public opinion on this matter.

Again, can't stress enough that there is a good chance the worst is still to come. But there isn't a magic pill to take to cure a recession. The fundamentals have changed due to natural corrections, as a result of the recession itself. Especially #1 and #2.
 

Ether_Snake

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We agree that the recession itself will lead to the corrections, but disagree on how much direct action is needed by the government, and hence how far away we are from a lasting recovery.
 
Also, if you had simply invested in the S&P 500 for the past 7 years, you would have gained about 13% in price alone, not including the effect of dividends which have been an additional 1.6-2% per year.

This is just simply false. Not sure how you came up with that number.

^anyone claiming they can predict it is fooling themselves. We're all just rolling the dice.

Ford: I won't Necessarily disagree with most of your points from the last page, but I think you're missing mine. The markets in the last 10 years or so have been much more volatile than any other period recently. I attribute this to the constant manipulation of the market by outside forces. Again, this is just my opinion. The money I have personally invested through various vehicles backs up my assertion.
If you want to be dubious about day trading, by all means go ahead. But you cannot speak authoritatively about something in which you are not experienced.
 
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