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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

Ether_Snake

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Well it just reinforces the idea that there's room for growth OS-wise for Apple, because it's now even to MS (can handle its OS). I agree actually, but I'm not really computer-savvy so I have no idea how things will go in the long run.

EDIT: AMD has had a good run recently, but to me it looks like pure speculation (about partnership with IBM, could happen tho).
 

sh4mike

Member
So I'm looking to adjust my 401K allocations. Currently have 100% in high-risk U.S. stock portfolios, but given the current environment I'm planning to go a bit more conservative. As an American, I'm also worried about the U.S. dollar. I was planning to go:

- 50% EuroPacific Growth Fund (+20% last year, -1.5% last quarter)
- 50% Stable Value Fund (all GICs, bank and investment contracts; safe 5% return)

I figured that the EuroPacific fund (my company's only fully international fund) would be a good hedge against the dollar and the US economy. The Stable Value fund would be a hedge against a global market recession. And the overall weight between the two would be medium-risk.

Open to opinions. This would only apply to new portfolio additions; I'm not touching my existing assets (all U.S. high-risk stock) because it's worth less now than I paid.
 

Ether_Snake

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My whole portfolio was up today, even IMMR (I fear the earnings, whenever they will be).

And holy crap, what a rally, almost everything in my watch list was up.

EDIT: But UN was down. Still tasty:D Good PE VS industry average, good management too.

EDIT2: Wow, TGI down 8% today. Earnings Friday. Insider trading? Whatever the case, it's getting really really cheap.

EDIT: BTW, anyone knows of a better way to keep tracks of stocks other than visiting each page on Yahoo Finance? Some sort of application or something.
 

kathode

Member
Ether_Snake said:
EDIT: BTW, anyone knows of a better way to keep tracks of stocks other than visiting each page on Yahoo Finance? Some sort of application or something.
What kinds of stuff are you looking for? Google Finance and iGoogle take care of all my needs. I have an iGoogle homepage with a gadget for my portfolio, and you can put stocks to watch on there too. My brokerage (Scottrade) also has decent internal tools. I also track them in Quicken but I don't do much more than update the prices there to keep track of my net worth.
 

Ether_Snake

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Oh iGoogle is pretty good, didn't really understand how it worked the last time I checked.

BA has dropped a lot recently, I know I keep saying it :lol
Some of tomorrow's Aerospace/Defense earnings; BLL, TXT,NOC

MOT dropped really hard, -18.75%, due to earnings.
NOK earnings tomorrow.

Royal Dutch Shell and SLB also dropped a lot recently (like lots of other oil stocks). STP continues to fall.

Look at TAP (Molson Coors)'s progression today (lucky early buyers): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TAP&t=1d It was basically at the 52-week average on opening. Earnings on Feb 12.

HSY (Hershey) earnings tomorrow morning. Been on a drop for a long time tho, doesn't look good longterm.

WBD (Russian dairy products business) has been going up crazy for the past three years; http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=WBD

BKC (Burger King) earnings tomorrow (personally not interested, I can't gauge this stuff).

Blargh, too much to bother to go through them all :lol
 

Ether_Snake

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TTWO up 10% thanks to GTAIV release date announcement. Should have bought more yesterday. Was ready to buy more soon.
 
kathode said:
NTDOY had some slippage right before their earnings announcement, but had monster earnings. Even outlook was good with them raising their sales forecast. I'm hopeful for some positive momentum on this one.

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/01/24/ap4569158.html

It barely budged this morning, not getting any higher than $64.80. Now it's right back where it started. Perhaps we'll see more movement on the Nikkei tonight?
 

Tarazet

Member
I have a feeling that there's some money to be made on Google, probably on the short side. The earnings predictions amount to $1.4 billion, or $4.43 a share. I'd be very surprised if they met that, and even if they do, there might be a serious re-valuation. It's already down deep into the $500s from its peak of almost $750.
 

kathode

Member
Cheesemeister said:
It barely budged this morning, not getting any higher than $64.80. Now it's right back where it started. Perhaps we'll see more movement on the Nikkei tonight?
Yeah I don't even bother checking it for movement when the Japanese markets aren't open.
 

Ether_Snake

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NOK reported good earnings. Shares are up.

More earnings today.

EDIT: THQI dropped 30%. Ouch. Good thing I never bought it after all. Could be good soon, altho I lost faith in them.
 

gkryhewy

Member
kathode said:
Yeah I don't even bother checking it for movement when the Japanese markets aren't open.

Currently at 62.15. It would be delightful to be able to see after hours or pre-market trends for 7974 on the nikkei.
 

Ether_Snake

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I always see MS as a really short term stock. It goes up so little over time. It's really strange how a company that has such a huge market share and its roots so firmly implemented in everything "computer" is quite frankly letting a lot of opportunities pass. Maybe their quasi-monopoly status is playing strongly against them (which makes sense anyway).

About THQ; they make/publish a lot of low quality titles, and to me their outsourcing mentality was going to help them keep production costs low while at the same time aiming for a less competitive share of the market. But what I realize now is that they didn't aim strongly enough on having a stronger kids-oriented strategy aimed at the PS2/Wii/DS. They definitly could not compete during a transition phase against major hardcore games. Anyway I'll keep an eye on them, but right now it's too difficult to make a good call. I could see them going the way of Midway if they don't manage to become highly successful on the Wii/DS and whatever else can sell to kids. Everyone is focusing on mature-oriented games like FPS, sports, racers, etc., but THQ should focus more on edutainment, kids movie licenses, etc. They can't compete against Ubisoft, EA, Activision, Take2, Capcom, Nintendo, Konami, etc. Even if Ratatouille wasn't a big hit (probably due to the movie itself), I don't think they should let go of that strategy. But quite frankly, Wall-E is unlikely to be a big hit in theaters. Really, it's too difficult to tell with THQ, so I'm avoiding it now. I would have seen it differently if next-gen consoles were more firmly implemented, and if an affordable console was highly popular without too much competition from first-party (like the PS2).

Anyway, some nice looking stuff (still unsure on where the market is going but oh well):

BA; trading at 77 only, 52-week high was 107 (in October I think). I think at this price it's a good purchase, even if they were to go down a bit due to earnings, the company is doing quite well, so it's quite attractive even at this price. Waiting after earnings sounds risky to me.
ATK: trading at 99, 52-week high was 120 back in November. Earnings on the 31st.
DCO; trading at 29.35, 52-week high was 42.70 back in October.
TGI; trading at 57, 52-week high was 86, back in October.
CM: trading at 67, down from 108 in October.
BHI: trading at 72 down from 100 in October.

A lot of Aerospace/Defense have been going down on lower-than-expected forecasts, might happen in this case too. Happened to TXT today. But the drops in general have been rather minimal, so overall there are great opportunities in this sector! LMT and UTX reported good growth and their shares went up, so its not all doom and gloom, and is it really ever in this sector?;)

EDIT: Nokia, a company I had been keeping an eye on for some time due to the IMMR link, went up 12% today thanks to earnings. Good news. Now hopefully they are still doing SOMETHING with IMMR, but the later has been dead silent for some time:p

RIMM jumped 7% and some more in AH. Probably thanks to Nokia and their claim that US turmoils mean little to them.

EDIT2: BTW, I see a lot of good earnings today going through my list. Good sign, should give some faith back to the markets:D We first had IBM, now Xerox, Nokia and Sun.

EDIT3: OH BTW!!! Ubi was up 10% today. They were trading at around 70 recently, went down to 47 when they delayed Far Cry and the rest, and now thanks to their kickass earnings they are at 57. I would be rich if I bought the shares I wanted to buy back in late 2004 (but didn't because I knew nothing about how to buy shares). BLARGHGAGAGA!

EDIT4: OMG at the gold stocks!:lol (and a lot of solar stocks are up too, but those are fricking risky) There's gonna massive profit-taking tomorrow I bet!
 

kathode

Member
Soka said:
Anyone care to explain to me why I woke up this morning to see Medco tanking, at around -50%. NYSE:MHS

50% loss in one day? What in the hell happened. Can't find news on it anywhere, just saw it on finance.google.com.

They did a 2:1 split.
 

Ether_Snake

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MS didn't go up even after great earnings.

:mad: at this market.
 

Ether_Snake

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TGI tanked 12% today. Investors don't trust management, even tho earnings on paper were good, investors called bull on it.

Guys;, check CM and tell me what you think please. Still a bad idea to buy into banks? It's so fricking low right now, very tempting.

EDIT: ATVI Earnings on Feb. 7!
 

kathode

Member
CM looks good, lots of cash, good growth, and positive ratings on CAPS on the Fool. If only it wasn't a financial stock :D I don't know the the market is prepared to look past that scarlet letter just yet. I'd say it's a good long-term buy depending on your feelings regarding how far down the subprime rabbit hole we've gone so far.

I lost another nearly $900 on Friday in the big turnaround, and got a maintenance call on my margin loan. Unfortunately that means it's time for some extreme measures to get things back in order, so I'm going to have to look into selling some stuff off. Probably going to sell off a water-stock ETF (my brother convinced me to buy it after seeing An Inconvenient Truth :)) taking a small loss, and sell T for a modest gain. That should get me some good headroom from maintenance calls and free up some capital if I want to make some short-term moves.

Really I am not doing that badly besides AAPL, which is slaughtering me. I feel like I let it go too far at this point, and now I really have to wait it out or face a ridiculous loss. I think it will come back, but I'm thinking that the "come back" will be to something like $150, and the days of ~$200 share prices are probably off in the unpredictable future. At least it sets them up to really knock it out of the park next year with upgraded Macbooks and a 3G iPhone or who knows what else. Can't do much worse than Apple TV and the Macbook Air :(
 
argon said:
Trading was halted on Nintendo stock today due to a 5,000 (9.62%) yen decline. This after a blowout quarter where they raised their sales forecast.

http://www.advfn.com/quote_Nintendo-CO_JSX_7974.html

While I think the stock is a fantastic bargain right now, NTDOY holders (of which I am one) are going to be crying tomorrow.

Sounds like a buying opp. /optimism

The current price of 47,000 yen equates to about $55.35 on NTDOY.
 

rage1973

Member
argon said:
Trading was halted on Nintendo stock today due to a 5,000 (9.62%) yen decline. This after a blowout quarter where they raised their sales forecast.

http://www.advfn.com/quote_Nintendo-CO_JSX_7974.html

While I think the stock is a fantastic bargain right now, NTDOY holders (of which I am one) are going to be crying tomorrow.
Any idea why the stock fell so much? Is it anticipation of US Fed cut and dollar going down against the yen?
 

kathode

Member
rage1973 said:
Any idea why the stock fell so much? Is it anticipation of US Fed cut and dollar going down against the yen?

It's worries over the yen and some profit-taking. You'll notice in their report they upped their sales guidance but left their profit guidance alone. This signifies they expect the yen to strengthen and eat into their profits. Reuters also claims that lots of institutional investors are cashing in what's left of their profits since everything else is tanking. Seems like these days if there's -any- way to cast -any- news around your company as negative, then your stock will tank.

http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUST10110320080128?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0
 

Ether_Snake

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Blargh, I hope I have not missed my chance with CM.

Still, I can't invest right now anyway.
 
can atvi even go much higher? if the merger price is $27 whats the point of the stock moving beyond that? thats why i thought its just been sitting between 26 and 27 forever now.
 

Tarazet

Member
Virtual Stock Exchange game is done. 14 of the 58 players posted gains after 120 days; 34 lost money, with five players losing over 50% of their initial $20,000 investment and only Argon gaining over 50% thanks to a smartly executed short sale of Midway stock.

argon 1 +51.61% $30,322.89
David Gallagher 2 +45.46% $29,092.50
sonarrat 3 +14.55% $22,910.95
***-*** 4 +9.56% $21,911.00
PhlegmMaster 5 +7.70% $21,540.00
Cyan 6 +7.51% $21,502.51
Troblin 7 +6.29% $21,257.56
Andrew-Mii 8 +6.24% $21,248.46
archslater 9 +6.16% $21,231.84
UberPlayer 10 +5.62% $21,123.50
 

Ether_Snake

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This is an excellent day for me. Everything up (CGT, IMMR, NVDA, TTWO) except ATVI. IMMR is still killing me tho. Everything else is fine.

And I'm still not selling ATVI even tho I bought at 17 because I think in the long run it will go much higher.

I got killed on VSE because I invested in Brazilian stocks that follow the market, and the market has been going down:p
 

lil smoke

Banned
argon said:
Trading was halted on Nintendo stock today due to a 5,000 (9.62%) yen decline. This after a blowout quarter where they raised their sales forecast.

http://www.advfn.com/quote_Nintendo-CO_JSX_7974.html

While I think the stock is a fantastic bargain right now, NTDOY holders (of which I am one) are going to be crying tomorrow.
People are still looking for their Wiis. I do not have the same confidence in NTDOY as I had last summer. They took too long. People care less.

hmpf.
 

Ether_Snake

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Looks like I'm missing a few opportunities among the ones I had been talking about being cheap recently.

BA, CM, INTC, WFR, CNI, ITY, and probably some others I'm forgetting. Oh well, no funds.

Anyway, today was a good day. CGT +3.84% (I bought some more, last Thursday I think). NVDA up +3.08%, TTWO +4.38%. IMMR 0% (right, IMMR doesn't rise when markets are up, it stays still or it tanks:p). ATVI down 2.74%, but that's alright.

/pats ATVI

I'm really sitting on all of them. NVDA I might sell when it gets back to its 52-week high of 39. ATVI I could actually sleep on it (while beating myself for not buying more while it's still under 30). Same for CGT. TTWO, I'll be waiting, not sure what to sell it at, my original goal was of around 22$ to 24$, we'll see.

IMMR? :lol
 

ArtG

Member
The past couple of days have been excellent for me. However, I'm sure something will happen and I start tanking again. :lol
 

Tideas

Banned
so here's a question. You make money off of stocks on quarterly dividends right? Or some even giving monthly dividends.

You can also make money if you sell it for a higher price than low.

Is it the same for index funds? I keep hearing that say, the S & P 500 gives like a 5% return. Is that like, a 5% return in dividends for the year?

And why are there so many different types of S & P 500 funds?
 
Tideas said:
so here's a question. You make money off of stocks on quarterly dividends right? Or some even giving monthly dividends.

You can also make money if you sell it for a higher price than low.

Is it the same for index funds? I keep hearing that say, the S & P 500 gives like a 5% return. Is that like, a 5% return in dividends for the year?

And why are there so many different types of S & P 500 funds?

Index funds do give dividend payments once a quarter, based on the dividends its received from it's holdings.

I'm not sure what the dividend rate is on index funds, it probably differs depending on which fund you're in. But the S&P averages a 12% return every year, so if you heard a 5% number that's probably the dividend ratio.
 
Soka said:
Yeah I'm holding out on ATVI as well.

MCD got hit sort of bad recently, which sucked for me. MRO padded my daily earnings enough that it didn't out right hurt, but damn I'd love to see MCD get back up there.

I think a lot of people were surprised by MCD's earnings. Figuring that McDonald's would be immune to an economic downturn, since it's a low-cost leader when compared to others in the restaurant industry. It's lower than projected earnings caught a lot of people off-guard and panic selling ensued.
 

argon

Member
ALeperMessiah said:
Index funds do give dividend payments once a quarter, based on the dividends its received from it's holdings.

I'm not sure what the dividend rate is on index funds, it probably differs depending on which fund you're in. But the S&P averages a 12% return every year, so if you heard a 5% number that's probably the dividend ratio.

The 10 year average performance for S&P is 5.9% with a dividend yield of ~1.5%.
 

Ether_Snake

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BTW UBI is back to 60 euros. From 70 to 47 back to 60 in like less than 10 days I think:p
 

Tideas

Banned
ALeperMessiah said:
Index funds do give dividend payments once a quarter, based on the dividends its received from it's holdings.

I'm not sure what the dividend rate is on index funds, it probably differs depending on which fund you're in. But the S&P averages a 12% return every year, so if you heard a 5% number that's probably the dividend ratio.

12% dividend return every year? Just read on Fortune that last year it only did 4.4% last year.
 

ArtG

Member
Tideas said:
12% dividend return every year? Just read on Fortune that last year it only did 4.4% last year.

I would guess that the index returned, on average 12% per year over it's life. (That's just accounting for the ups and downs of the index itself.)
 
ArtG said:
I would guess that the index returned, on average 12% per year over it's life. (That's just accounting for the ups and downs of the index itself.)

Yes, that's what I was trying to talk about. And over it's life, not just 10 years, the s&p 500 returns around 12%. 10 years isn't really a long enough time span for index funds imo. Since they leverage the time value of money moreso than any other investment.
 

Tideas

Banned
when I searched for an S&P 500 fund to buy, I get quite a bit of options. There were the windsor S&P500, vanguard, etc.

Is their only difference how much fees they charged? Or is it also how much they invest in the stocks that make up the 500?
 

Ether_Snake

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Oh I know who i forgot: BP. They dipped a lot recently.

BTW, what do you guys say about NKE? Sounds good to me, and it dipped a bit recently.

ERTS is low too, but I ain't touching that.
 
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