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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

P

Piecake

Member
Ether_Snake said:
Rumors are the Canadian central bank will lower its rate, how stupid. The bubble keeps growing, this might just finally pop it.

Edit: confirmed, and Canada is in a recession.
Click to expand...

Don't ask me to further explain it (I doubt I could), but that is actually the correct policy - at least that is what I gather from economists and people interested in monetary policy and global finance. Monetary policy is a blunt instrument and should only be used in relation to the overall economy. Trying to pop a sector bubble with monetary policy is just disastrous. The Great Depression is a very good example. It popped the bubble, sure, but you also got massive contraction, deflation and depression.

Weak economic growth and recessions necessitate an expansionary monetary policy, which what the Canadian central bank did. You deal with sector issues, like the Canadian housing bubble, with macroprudential tools.

As for tech, this might be relevant

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-18/deal-could-cut-tariffs-on-1-trillion-in-tech-trade
 
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Ether_Snake

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Piecake said:
Don't ask me to further explain it (I doubt I could), but that is actually the correct policy - at least that is what I gather from economists and people interested in monetary policy and global finance. Monetary policy is a blunt instrument and should only be used in relation to the overall economy. Trying to pop a sector bubble with monetary policy is just disastrous. The Great Depression is a very good example. It popped the bubble, sure, but you also got massive contraction, deflation and depression.

Weak economic growth and recessions necessitate an expansionary monetary policy, which what the Canadian central bank did. You deal with sector issues, like the Canadian housing bubble, with macroprudential tools.

As for tech, this might be relevant

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-18/deal-could-cut-tariffs-on-1-trillion-in-tech-trade
Click to expand...

But in this case Canada already has a huge housing bubble, record high household debt, and an economy that was very much relying on oil prices which are not going to head back up as a result of lower interest rates. Plus, the government has done nothing in a while to prevent the housing bubble from growing.

So in theory yeah you lower interest rates, but in the current case all it will do is make people pile on even more debt.

Also, 97% of the time Canada's interest rates followed those of the US. The US is about to raise its rate, and either Canada will too soon enough, or it won't, and in either case it will screw up home owners. Must people signing today will probably renew at 5% in a few years, and if rates are still low or lower it will have popped the bubble instead.

On that note, I recommend Garth Turner's blog on the subject, he's right and funny.
 
P

Piecake

Member
Ether_Snake said:
But in this case Canada already has a huge housing bubble, record high household debt, and an economy that was very much relying on oil prices which are not going to head back up as a result of lower interest rates. Plus, the government has done nothing in a while to prevent the housing bubble from growing.

So in theory yeah you lower interest rates, but in the current case all it will do is make people pile on even more debt.

Also, 97% of the time Canada's interest rates followed those of the US. The US is about to raise its rate, and either Canada will too soon enough, or it won't, and in either case it will screw up home owners. Must people signing today will probably renew at 5% in a few years, and if rates are still low or lower it will have popped the bubble instead.

On that note, I recommend Garth Turner's blog on the subject, he's right and funny.
Click to expand...

So what? Your economy is in recession and your economy sucks. That requires an expansionary monetary policy and low interest rates to get your economy going. If your Fed or government hasnt used macroprudential tools to widdle down that housing bubble and curb household debt, then they need to start doing that because hat is how you safely solve a housing bubble and household debt.

You don't try to solve shit like that with monetary policy since that just leads to even worse economic growth, making the consequences of the housing bubble and household debt worse.

I recommend reading Hall of Mirrors: The Great Depression, The Great Recession, and the Uses-and Misuses-of History by Barry Eichengreen.

Here is a quote:

There has been much debate about who was right and who was wrong in this contest between the proponents of direct pressure and higher interest rates. In the light of recent experience, the answer is clear. We now understand that the best repsonse for a central bank confronted with this kind of dilemma is to assign monetary polic, in this case its lending rate, to the needs of the economy while using regulatory tools like the ceilings on loan-ovalue ratios for home mortages and limits on lending to particular sectors (what we would now call macroprudentail policy) to address finanical risks. This was precisely the intuation of those who advocated direct pressure in 1929: leave interest rates at a level appropriate for the economy and use other tools to limit lending to the stock market.

We now better appreciate the value of that intuition, because this is precisley what the fed and other us agencies neglected to do in 2005-05, when they failed to use MP policy to clamp down on the flow of credit into us housing markets. Here is a clear case where the events of 2007-2008 change how we think about 1929.
Click to expand...

Seems like a situation that would apply perfectly to Canada's situation right now
 
vpance

vpance

Member
A large amount of debt in itself isn't the problem. How that debt is unwound is the real issue. Extreme over leverage like what happened in the US would be, but getting a mortgage here still isn't a complete free for all so I don't see the next few rate cuts substantially increasing debt load at this level anyways. Any effect will be diminished.

Ether_Snake said:
Also, 97% of the time Canada's interest rates followed those of the US. The US is about to raise its rate, and either Canada will too soon enough, or it won't, and in either case it will screw up home owners. Must people signing today will probably renew at 5% in a few years, and if rates are still low or lower it will have popped the bubble instead.
Click to expand...

Isn't a bubble pop what you've been hoping for though? No one said this story was going to have a happy ending..

Realistically though, they're going to try and deflate it slowly, so they won't raise when US does. When they do raise it'll be when oil has rebounded (on mid east conflicts or USD weakness, and nothing to do with our rates) and stabilized, which means the housing bubble will continue to last for a while longer. In my view that's another 2-3 years. The bubble is also why we have so many damn condo developments these days, because it's become the only kind of entry level home affordable for new buyers if they want to remain in the city.

I'm not sure how dire it's going to get since their main tool of rate cutting is running out of runway, and with oil and other resources continuing to drop in price that is going to put a lot of hurt on our producers. There really isn't anything else the government can do now despite what people's feelings are about the individuals running it.
 
U

Unknown Soldier

Member
I feel that Apple is a solid hold right now. I think if there's a dip due to Apple Watch, it would be a solid decision to add to your holdings before the iP6+ launch. I certainly wouldn't be looking to sell it LMAO.

Oh man, I wish I had more Google. Sergey Brin and Larry Page made $4 billion on paper in one day. I made less than that. :|
 
E

Ether_Snake

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DDD and SSYS still dying.
We see daily -3% drops these days.
Both down 7% each now.

In better news, scty is up 8%.
 
Z

zou

Member
bought pyplv at 34.5 and pypl closed today at 40.5. syf up almost $5 as well.

also beating the sp 500 ytd so far, so good week :)
 
Amory

Amory

Member
Have shares in Southwest (announcing earnings today) and American Express (announcing tomorrow).

hoping for good news...
 
E

Ether_Snake

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BTW, mark my words, the Shanghai stock market is soon entering the bull trap, and then it's going to be dowwwwwwn.

JyxRD1p.png

Fbmb9Fn.jpg
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Called it!!!! Shanghai down over 8% last night, the recovery was a bulltrap. Now it will gobdown, really down.
 
A

a916

Member
hurzelein said:
I swear I will never hold stock of companies for which expectations of investors are just ridiculous through their earnings. Aqqle
Click to expand...

Apple under the Steve Jobs II era was notorious for setting modest earnings expectations and then blowing past them.
 
H

hurzelein

Member
That picture from before earnings call pretty much sums up Twitter managment (btw getting 35% of the companies revenue). Not sure you could do any worse. I would seriously prefer some college graduates over them. Not even mad anymore, it's just funny to watch that trainwreck.

Such a great plattform brought down by so little enthusiasm for it.

CLCPNkKUEAEID2Z.jpg:large
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Ether_Snake

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I don't see how Twitter can be properly monetized without destroying its appeal. Have yet to see anyone explain that.
 
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Ether_Snake

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DDD and SSYS crashing, 3D printing sector on life support.

SCTY also going down on big loss.

edit: Well SCTY at least finished up nicely.
 
C

cpp_is_king

Member
Just found this thread. So what are everyone's 3 highest performing stocks in their portfolios and what is your rationale for holding it? I'll start:

MA - Up 36% since buying it a year ago. I bought this one because I don't really like Visa's leadership but I think the credit industry is poised for growth long term. So MA was the logical choice.

AMZN - Funny thing about this one is that I bought a rather large position about 5 minutes before the spike last week. Lucked out, but even if it had gone down, I believe in the company long term. They absolutely dominate the ecommerce space, and I think 20 years from now brick and mortar is going to be a thing of the past for most types of goods. And on top of that they're doing a good job competing with NFLX in the streaming video space, and that's literally NFLX's only business.

XLV - This is a health care ETF. I bought this after Obamacare passed. Health care isn't going anywhere, and I figure worst case scenario it continues to grow at a steady rate, but if someone were to ever repeal Obamacare and take healthcare private like many in the GOP want to do, healthcare providers profits would skyrocket. Worst case gain, best case major gain.

Honorable mentions:

BX - My largest single position, BX is an investment group. Only had this for about 2-3 months, but it pays a huge dividend. Anywhere from 7-8%, and has pretty good fundamentals. It's been a little rocky the past few weeks so I'm keeping an eye on it but an 8% dividend is pretty hard to pass up considering its growth rate over the past couple years.
 
E

Ether_Snake

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Twitter, LinkedIn, Groupon, Yelp, I would never come close to putting a penny in there. Amazon, Google, Facebook, and on the riskier end Netflix, yes.
 
vpance

vpance

Member
DDD looks like it wants $10 first for a bounce.

No bullish look for AAPL yet. Market seems to be slowly topping and doing fake outs.
 
°

°°ToMmY°°

Member
I'm up 80% on netflix. Should i hold or sell?

I see sony falling and i might be interested in diverting my netflix money on them. I see them more poised for growth than netflix in the future...
 
vpance

vpance

Member
I'm mostly out on Sony now except for a small long term position. Looks like it will be stuck in this area for a while. If it goes to 25 I'll add, but I won't be too interested until it can reclaim 30s.
 
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Ether_Snake

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Netflix seems to be heading too high too quick, considering it still has many potential hurdles ahead, but I wouldn't put money in Sony. I just don't see what's in there for the long term.

Netflix I think is here to stay, so worst comes to worst someone buys them, but a 45B+ market cap right now seems too high.
 
C

cpp_is_king

Member
If you want to put money in streaming video put it in AMZN imo. They're everything Netflix is with a ton of additional room for growth in other spaces.
 
vpance

vpance

Member
AMZN went parabolic, same with NFLX. It can't sustain for long, don't chase, especially when the main market still looks uncertain.
 
E

Ether_Snake

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DDD and SSYS rising to heaven on pretty much nothing, I'll take it.
 
S

Smiley90

Stop shitting on my team. Start shitting on my finger.
For the Canadian investors in here:

Are you guys going to switch to hedge your US-investments with the CAD reaching these lows to keep the gains once the CAD inevitably starts rising again? I feel like it might be worth it at some point, though I think it can/will still fall lower. but will there be a point at which you will? Falling CAD makes my portfolio look so green...
 
T

thestopsign

Member
Hey all, I am fresh out of college and recently employed and have started saving up some money over the summer. I've been looking to start investing for a while and have been researching the basics, but I am still very nervous about jumping in right now.

My main thought right now is to start with ETFs, and choose some of the larger, safe ones like SPY. I am going to avoid investing in individual stocks the require constant attention/monitoring. Once I have a bit more cash flow, I'm thinking I'll do some safer bonds/CDs as well (I've heard that interest rates are going to be hiked up by the Fed so these may becomes a better option in the future I think too).

Anyways, if y'all have any advice for me and or starting tips I'd greatly appreciate it.

Oh and I opened up an account with Charles Schwab, it has been highly recommended by a few friends that are way more knowledgeable than me. It seems pretty helpful so far.
 
E

Ether_Snake

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Smiley90 said:
For the Canadian investors in here:

Are you guys going to switch to hedge your US-investments with the CAD reaching these lows to keep the gains once the CAD inevitably starts rising again? I feel like it might be worth it at some point, though I think it can/will still fall lower. but will there be a point at which you will? Falling CAD makes my portfolio look so green...
Click to expand...

Not doing that for the foreseeable future. Canadian housing market will go down before the cad goes up IMO. I'm going to keep investing in USDs for the next few months. I excpect the cad to reach at least the low 70s eventually, but maybe even the high 60s.
 
S

Smiley90

Stop shitting on my team. Start shitting on my finger.
Ether_Snake said:
Not doing that for the foreseeable future. Canadian housing market will go down before the cad goes up IMO. I'm going to keep investing in USDs for the next few months. I excpect the cad to reach at least the low 70s eventually, but maybe even the high 60s.
Click to expand...

I agree, I'll wait until the housing market implodes for sure.Then though, will you consider hedging? Or would you never consider it at all? I don't see the CAD forever staying low after housing implodes, so I feel like hedging would benefit to keep the gains made.
 
E

Ether_Snake

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Smiley90 said:
I agree, I'll wait until the housing market implodes for sure.Then though, will you consider hedging? Or would you never consider it at all? I don't see the CAD forever staying low after housing implodes, so I feel like hedging would benefit to keep the gains made.
Click to expand...

I don't know, too far out, but that would depend on how the Canadian economy would be by then, and the US'.
 
R

RevoDS

Junior Member
Bought a few positions today, mostly beaten up companies that I may or may not be knife-catching on.

COP - Just looking to build a larger base into oil. I think oil is likely much closer to the bottom than the top at this point (we're around or below the 2008 bottom). Bought under the intention of averaging down a few weeks/months from now if it keeps falling.

DTEA - This one fell a lot lower than I expected it would after its IPO. Got killed after a huge loss related to derivatives from the IPO, but the company is otherwise healthy. I think it has a lot of potential since it's still relatively small, and at this point it's among the cheaper growth stocks (trading between 32 and 36x next year's management earnings guidance)

MTY - Just a solid company I'd been eyeing for a long time but never pulled the trigger on. Owns a shitton of Canadian fast food chains, not too expensive, small-ish dividend.
 
A

alejob

Member
Made 400 bucks in the market today. Got real lucky. Bought and sold about an hour later.
I will probably give it back another day. Man everything got hammered today.
 
N

NetMapel

Guilty White Male Mods Gave Me This Tag
Buying into oil and energy ETFs now... I just don't see it staying down for a long period of time. Playing the long game here ! Am I doomed or am I right ?
 
D

David Incorporated Esq.

Member
So I've been sitting on about 40k that I wanted to put into an index fund once the market got a little hairy. I had a feeling it was on the horizon but was only getting into what options I would have the past week for when things went down.

Now that the indices are down I want to get ramped up with it. My underlying thought has been to go with an S&P index fund through my bank, but am I shitting myself out of opportunity going with a bank's fund? Am I better to go with an ETF like SPY?

Total newbie here, I need to cash out another fund for half of my money on this, but kind of clueless on how to get into ETFs outside of calling the broker with my bank.
 
R

RevoDS

Junior Member
Dave Inc. said:
So I've been sitting on about 40k that I wanted to put into an index fund once the market got a little hairy. I had a feeling it was on the horizon but was only getting into what options I would have the past week for when things went down.

Now that the indices are down I want to get ramped up with it. My underlying thought has been to go with an S&P index fund through my bank, but am I shitting myself out of opportunity going with a bank's fund? Am I better to go with an ETF like SPY?

Total newbie here, I need to cash out another fund for half of my money on this, but kind of clueless on how to get into ETFs outside of calling the broker with my bank.
Click to expand...
SPY is pretty unbeatable in terms of fees and easier to buy than mutual funds. I personally would go that way.

Also, if I were you, I wouldn't invest 40k in one go. I'd invest a fixed amount on a periodic basis (say 2.5k or 5k a month), which makes your timing relatively irrelevant because you aren't going all in at a given market price.
 
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