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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

Ether_Snake

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Classic bubble, I knew when the Shangai market rallied it was a bull trap.

If commodity prices keep going down and the USD up, it would be a great time for the US to invest in infrastructure.
 

inm8num2

Member
Cross-posting from this thread.

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Don't really know what to make of all this. I mean, it's been obvious for a few months that some form of correction was coming, but the sharp downward turn is really worrying.
 

Flo_Evans

Member
Buy a whole market ETF, why bet on a single company?

More fun? I think taking the kids to Disneyland and explaining you own a tiny fraction of this is more exciting than 'you are diversified in a broad based entire market fund for best statistical outcome kid'

Of course the majority of my savings are invested that way.
 
More fun? I think taking the kids to Disneyland and explaining you own a tiny fraction of this is more exciting than 'you are diversified in a broad based entire market fund for best statistical outcome kid'

Of course the majority of my savings are invested that way.

You could still say so, as Disney will surely be part of the index. You can then afterwards drive home in a car whose manufacturer your kids also partly own, to a fast food joint that they also partly own....
 

Ether_Snake

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Yay SCTY up, that should make up for the past few days of horrible performances. The short squeeze is delicious.

When markets go down like today, shorts double down on companies like DDD, SSY, SCTY, so when those companies rise anyway they get really burned, especially when the whole market suddenly turns around. Sweet
 

Smiley90

Stop shitting on my team. Start shitting on my finger.
I woke up to several "your stock has fallen 10%" messages but now it's all around -1% only. Damn there was a LOT of money to be made...
 

Smiley90

Stop shitting on my team. Start shitting on my finger.
Oh man I finally get a computer and looking at the graph and kicking myself for not waking up early. Example 1 of my ETF's:

FXH.ARCA
Close Friday: 64.67
Open: 59.48, 9:30am
Low: 45.01, 9:45am
Recovery: 58.50, 10:05am

HINDSIGHT 20/20 COULD'VE MADE SO MUCH MONEY
 

Smiley90

Stop shitting on my team. Start shitting on my finger.
And we're nearly back at last week's levels... Wish I had more money around to profit from it but oh well
 
Transferred a lot of cash out of my savings account and into my eTrade account this morning. I went 100% into SPY. I dont' have the time to mess around with options anymore, so I want something that will give me a guaranteed return with little effort. We're still 8% below 2 weeks ago, so this should be easy money.
 

alejob

Member
Transferred a lot of cash out of my savings account and into my eTrade account this morning. I went 100% into SPY. I dont' have the time to mess around with options anymore, so I want something that will give me a guaranteed return with little effort. We're still 8% below 2 weeks ago, so this should be easy money.

Oh boy, easy money for those that you bought from...

Welp, just ordered the sale of my shitty, boring mutual funds. Thursday morning I'll be free to go in with all the funds, so fingers crossed the economy comes to a screeching halt!

You mean the markets come to a screeching halt. We don't want the economy to dump.

I'm down 50k fuuuuuuuck.

Sorry dude. I hope you are long and not losing that much while trading.
 
Oh boy, easy money for those that you bought from...



You mean the markets come to a screeching halt. We don't want the economy to dump.



Sorry dude. I hope you are long and not losing that much while trading.

Yeah these r stock I'm riding out hopefully for the next 20-30 years. Just shocked as I've never seen that much loss.
 
Oh boy, easy money for those that you bought from...

Somehow I don't think that the S&P 500 is going to top at 1900 for the rest of its life. Or even for the next month. Definitely easy money for me. It will be 2100 in 1-2 months, easily.

I don't have time to day trade, so the shortest play for me is 1 month, and I don't do options at all.
 

Melon Husk

Member
Where are the headlines now, Dow up ~3.8%, Nasdaq up ~4.2%. Cash flowing back into Amazon and Google, Netflix is up 30% from the lows. No matter, flix will sink more than 10% in a day or two.
Fun to watch when the fear gets a grip on greed and vice versa.

VIX will spike to over 40 in the next three days, but it looks good..

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We'll go down again tomorrow.

I want to buy so bad... Don't think we are done correcting yet though.

Do tell what you think.
 

Smiley90

Stop shitting on my team. Start shitting on my finger.
I see a fellow questrade user!

They're the best Canadian Online Broker, got nothing to complain (except for too-high currency conversion fees, those are lame)

at this rate we'll be out of the 2-week hole we've been digging just 2-weeks later, that's not a correction at all... lol
 
They're the best Canadian Online Broker, got nothing to complain (except for too-high currency conversion fees, those are lame)

at this rate we'll be out of the 2-week hole we've been digging just 2-weeks later, that's not a correction at all... lol

Of course it wasn't a correction. It was a knee-jerk reaction to a correction in China. We're still doing fine, and have been.
 
Well then are we still looking at a correction on the way or what? Seems absurd that we've been so long without any major change in trajectory. Then again I mostly have no idea what I'm talking about.

I think when it comes to market prediction, a large majority of people have no idea what they're talking about, perhaps even myself included :)

Personally I don't see any troubling signs in the US economy that would indicate a major correction. But if you have a long term outlook, it doesn't really matter. So you buy some stock today and it goes down by 8% tomorrow. Whatever. I've learned not to try to call bottoms (or tops). The fact is that in a month, or a year, or 3 years, or however long it takes, we'll be hitting all time highs again. The fact that we're STILL down 8% from a month ago is good enough for me to consider this a buying opportunity.
 
I think when it comes to market prediction, a large majority of people have no idea what they're talking about, perhaps even myself included :)

Personally I don't see any troubling signs in the US economy that would indicate a major correction. But if you have a long term outlook, it doesn't really matter. So you buy some stock today and it goes down by 8% tomorrow. Whatever. I've learned not to try to call bottoms (or tops). The fact is that in a month, or a year, or 3 years, or however long it takes, we'll be hitting all time highs again. The fact that we're STILL down 8% from a month ago is good enough for me to consider this a buying opportunity.

Oh I know, I moved about a third of my investment money into SPY this morning and I'm going to spread the rest out over the next week or so. It's just my first time buying into stocks so I'm having fun trying to pick the right time. :p

But that's what's got me kerfuffled. It's been a long time without a correction, and it feels like people are walking on eggshells waiting for one to happen but...it doesn't seem like there's anything that would be a trigger. Oh well, like you said this money is 3-5 year stuff at the bare minimum so I'm not too concerned, just fun.
 

Melon Husk

Member
I think when it comes to market prediction, a large majority of people have no idea what they're talking about, perhaps even myself included :)

Personally I don't see any troubling signs in the US economy that would indicate a major correction. But if you have a long term outlook, it doesn't really matter. So you buy some stock today and it goes down by 8% tomorrow. Whatever. I've learned not to try to call bottoms (or tops). The fact is that in a month, or a year, or 3 years, or however long it takes, we'll be hitting all time highs again. The fact that we're STILL down 8% from a month ago is good enough for me to consider this a buying opportunity.

Well Friday is profit taking day, who knows haha. We might see a slight continuation tomorrow followed by fade into the close. Apr - Jul the major indexes swelled, we're now back to more sustainable levels.
 

Melon Husk

Member
If you're holding the tweetie bird there's not much I can tell you. I would cross my fingers for a ~$45 exit if I were you.

Solars couldn't be getting that much cheaper. Could be a powder keg situation here. That's not to say there aren't winners and losers. You know, I think it's always a good time to buy solar stocks. :)

FB is worth watching too if it dumps into the bargain bin before we enter the VR hype phase. Too early to bet the farm on OR's longterm success.

Here's the continuation... then the fade?
 

alejob

Member
I think when it comes to market prediction, a large majority of people have no idea what they're talking about, perhaps even myself included :)

Personally I don't see any troubling signs in the US economy that would indicate a major correction. But if you have a long term outlook, it doesn't really matter. So you buy some stock today and it goes down by 8% tomorrow. Whatever. I've learned not to try to call bottoms (or tops). The fact is that in a month, or a year, or 3 years, or however long it takes, we'll be hitting all time highs again. The fact that we're STILL down 8% from a month ago is good enough for me to consider this a buying opportunity.

You are correct, specially when you try to predict what the market is going to do short term. Most tools/charts/patterns... that people try to look at to make predictions are BS. They are looking at past. However there are a few things you can look at. Raising interest rates being one of them. Historically when rates are rising, stocks are slowing down or going down. Guess what is happening soon...
 

RevoDS

Junior Member
You are correct, specially when you try to predict what the market is going to do short term. Most tools/charts/patterns... that people try to look at to make predictions are BS. They are looking at past. However there are a few things you can look at. Raising interest rates being one of them. Historically when rates are rising, stocks are slowing down or going down. Guess what is happening soon...

They are bullshit...and they aren't at the same time. Market predictions do fail, and they do so quite often, but that doesn't mean you can't exploit patterns and other tools if they are supported by a thorough statistical analysis. You can't reliably say if the market will be red or green tomorrow, no matter what analysis you do, you have no certainty and you never will.

However, say a given method has predicted the market's movements with just 55% accuracy. Anyone would agree that 55% isn't that reliable; if I applied it tomorrow, I'd have a large chance of losing money. But if you apply that method systematically and consistently, then that 55% accuracy doesn't look bad because you do end up making money over the long term if you repeat it again and again because you'll be right more often than you'll be wrong. You have a statistical edge.

Peter Lynch was an adept of this principle back when he was managing hedge funds (and he probably still is today); he didn't care if he was right or wrong on individual stocks, as long as in aggregate, his picks brought money in (which they did).

I completely agree with your point that you cannot try to predict what markets will do reliably...but you can still take some pretty useful hints from the data you have.
 
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