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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

C

ClosingADoor

Member
Everything I hold is tanking it seems. Well, as long as the companies are OK and paying a nice dividend return. Not planning on selling anytime soon. It is tempting to buy some more of certain companies, but let's see what happens.
 
vpance

vpance

Member
Here's another spin on my chart above except with monthly candles and a 9 EMA, that's worked reliably for the last 20+ years. Since most of you here are long term players this should help cut out the chaff and figure out when to buy, and when to trim your gains. Why would you do this you ask? Well, to get a substantially better return and to save your ammo for more certain times.

5c5PbTT.jpg


When the monthly close is below the line, trim gains, do not buy.
When it's above, buy.

There were a few instances where it faked out but in general it works astoundingly well enough. If you followed this chart it kept you out of 2 crashes (maybe 3 soon) and in for the bulk of the uptrends.

So while today was a very red day and tempting to buy, the main idea in determining whether or not is to step back and see the bigger picture first.
 
Melon Husk

Melon Husk

Member
vpance said:
Here's another spin on my chart above except with monthly candles and a 9 EMA, that's worked reliably for the last 20+ years. Since most of you here are long term players this should help cut out the chaff and figure out when to buy, and when to trim your gains. Why would you do this you ask? Well, to get a substantially better return and to save your ammo for more certain times.

5c5PbTT.jpg


When the monthly close is below the line, trim gains, do not buy.
When it's above, buy.

There were a few instances where it faked out but in general it works astoundingly well enough. If you followed this chart it kept you out of 2 crashes (maybe 3 soon) and in for the bulk of the uptrends.

So while today was a very red day and tempting to buy, the main idea in determining whether or not is to step back and see the bigger picture first.
Click to expand...

That chart's telling me we hit 1850 next month and hop back to 2000 before the year ends.
 
E

Ether_Snake

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vpance said:
From $55 to $8 in 6 months, wow.

The knife catcher in me kind of wants to pick some up here. Better wait to see a rebound first.
Click to expand...

A year ago in October, when some social media companies announced employee benefits for fertilization treatments, I looked into which companies were trading and thought OVAS would be a great buy. Over the coming days it started rising like crazy, until it reached a peak not long ago. When I saw the typical bubble pattern I called the bull trap, and indeed I was right. Probably all luck, but I never bought the stock anyway :p
 
vpance

vpance

Member
Dave Inc. said:
Hmph. Looking at that, buying SPDR at 196 seems pretty dumb now.

Then again, what would precipitate a real crash over a correction?
Click to expand...

The fundamentals don't seem to support a crash, but whenever they happen it seems unexpected. US data is alright, but foreign markets are still questionable. News always lags the movement in price anyways, so it's never a good idea to focus on it.

If you're committed to playing long term and still have a healthy amount of cash available then it shouldn't be too worrying. Personally I just like to be 100% in cash if the market direction isn't certain.

I'd like to see AAPL $70, AMZN $300 before I buy... I guess that would take a crash to see those levels though.

Melon Husk said:
That chart's telling me we hit 1850 next month and hop back to 2000 before the year ends.
Click to expand...

Possible. Lotta stocks look kind of ugly now though. When they start to show Batman head like patterns it's not a good sign, lol. See AAPL.
 
vpance

vpance

Member
Ether_Snake said:
A year ago in October, when some social media companies announced employee benefits for fertilization treatments, I looked into which companies were trading and thought OVAS would be a great buy. Over the coming days it started rising like crazy, until it reached a peak not long ago. When I saw the typical bubble pattern I called the bull trap, and indeed I was right. Probably all luck, but I never bought the stock anyway :p
Click to expand...

If only it could've keep going from the mid 20s :| I made a lot there on the bounce but gave back too much. IBB in general is really ugly looking now.
 
Z

Zaraki_Kenpachi

Member
vpance said:
The fundamentals don't seem to support a crash, but whenever they happen it seems unexpected. US data is alright, but foreign markets are still questionable. News always lags the movement in price anyways, so it's never a good idea to focus on it.

If you're committed to playing long term and still have a healthy amount of cash available then it shouldn't be too worrying. Personally I just like to be 100% in cash if the market direction isn't certain.

I'd like to see AAPL $70, AMZN $300 before I buy... I guess that would take a crash to see those levels though.



Possible. Lotta stocks look kind of ugly now though. When they start to show Batman head like patterns it's not a good sign, lol. See AAPL.
Click to expand...

Are you serious? Yes, you're not seeing major stocks dropping 40% unless a crash.

I bought some disney yesterday, been waiting for it to go under $100 again.
 
C

Cindres

Vied for a tag related to cocks, so here it is.
Any UK traders here? I'm looking into broker options at the moment, Barclays offer stock trading, I believe Lloyds have something but I read something on Barclays that implied I can only invest in UK stocks? Not totally sure what's going on there.
 
E

Ether_Snake

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Sucks alejob:/

ClosingADoor: I think it's just volatility, and because oil shot up.
 
vpance

vpance

Member
Strong rebound last few days but interesting to see some big names not participating, eg. AAPL and TSLA. Could be lagging or just stalling for the next down move.

Chart update. Above the 9 EMA at 2021 right now but we won't know if it's real until the month ends.

bEwbDu6.jpg
 
C

ClosingADoor

Member
Things learned after about a month of this: nobody seems to know what the hell is going on. At least that's how it seems.

Sold my International Paper and Shell stocks earlier when they went up. Turned a nice profit - at least as some side money. Now waiting for my finance stocks to rise just a little.

Fun stuff to watch.
 
E

Ether_Snake

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Bought GS this week. Expecting to be able to sell it at 200 some time in 2016.
 
C

ClosingADoor

Member
Good week mostly, made a small profit. Now to see if AXP and IBM will recover a bit today. Would be nice.

Edit: AXP is doing nicely. To sell or not to sell now...
 
G

gazele

Banned
Sold 10 shares of MS today, still have 15 shares

It's funny, the "safe" bets are losing the most money for me, mutual funds and bonds, all my stocks are doing pretty well right now
 
C

cpp_is_king

Member
gazele said:
Sold 10 shares of MS today, still have 15 shares

It's funny, the "safe" bets are losing the most money for me, mutual funds and bonds, all my stocks are doing pretty well right now
Click to expand...

Careful dealing in such small numbers of shares. 25 shares of MS is $800, your transaction fee is probably $10. The more transactions you break this up into, it really destroys your profit margin. You buy once and sell twice that's $30 worth of transaction fees, which means the stock has to go up 4% just for you to break even.
 
G

gazele

Banned
cpp_is_king said:
Careful dealing in such small numbers of shares. 25 shares of MS is $800, your transaction fee is probably $10. The more transactions you break this up into, it really destroys your profit margin. You buy once and sell twice that's $30 worth of transaction fees, which means the stock has to go up 4% just for you to break even.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I don't see doing this very often, just seemed like a big jump for MS, but I'll keep that in mind for sure thanks

I'm pretty new to investing
 
C

ClosingADoor

Member
gazele said:
Yeah, I don't see doing this very often, just seemed like a big jump for MS, but I'll keep that in mind for sure thanks

I'm pretty new to investing
Click to expand...
I made a quick spreadsheet to calculate the costs and needed return, so you can easily see the price you need to sell at to break even or a profit. Those transfer fees add up quickly if you are not buying and selling above a few thousand dollars (or euros in my case).

This is also just my second month. I want to see if I can make a few hundred every month. Going OK for now.

And AXP reached my limit order. Bit annoying my broker doesn't have a stop loss or stop limit on American stocks. Need to look into that.
 
E

Ether_Snake

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In Google finance you can put the cost of the purchase so it adds up automatically.
 
C

ClosingADoor

Member
Zaraki_Kenpachi said:
Axp is such a bad stock. I wouldn't touch it with a 10 ft pole
Click to expand...
Yeah, I got rid of it at +2% yesterday. Not planning on getting back into it, outlook for the next year is not very good.

Difficult to judge which stocks to invest in. It seems a lot of stock is at very high points, which is a good thing but then I'm also worrying about it going down too much again soon...
 
Z

Zaraki_Kenpachi

Member
ClosingADoor said:
Yeah, I got rid of it at +2% yesterday. Not planning on getting back into it, outlook for the next year is not very good.

Difficult to judge which stocks to invest in. It seems a lot of stock is at very high points, which is a good thing but then I'm also worrying about it going down too much again soon...
Click to expand...
I think over the last two weeks or three weeks a lot of stocks I wouldn't jump into. I think right now you have to pick your position more. The cut back a couple weeks ago was the time to buy
 
E

Ether_Snake

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SCTY down 20% in AH.

I own SSYS, DDD, and SCTY. All three are doomed.
 
S

Smiley90

Stop shitting on my team. Start shitting on my finger.
I hope none of you guys had stocks in Chinese condom companies (lol)

I hope some of you guys have stocks in Chinese healthcare/childcare/babyfood/whatever
 
M

massoluk

Banned
Nike stock was such a jerk. It just keep on growing when caution said the streak can't be this good. And now it's just sitting there, taunting me for not getting in earlier.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
Careful everyone with this run up, SPY has two gaps unfilled below at 205 and 195. Gaps in SPY haven't gone unfilled in 4 years, and the longest it has gone since then unfilled was 7 weeks. We're currently in week 5 of being unfilled and we touched 70 RSI yesterday, so I expect some big red down days in the next couple of weeks. I'd exit positions if anyone's swing trading and not short.
 
Z

ZeezbruhTV

Member
Ether_Snake said:
SCTY down 20% in AH.

I own SSYS, DDD, and SCTY. All three are doomed.
Click to expand...

The market is hilarious, its so driven twords the short term. They will be cash flow positive by q4 16, and STILL growing 40% y/y. One of the biggest complaints were the sketchy financials, well rock bottom financing is leaving, and they are fixing that complaint. By the end of next year the company will be completely sustainable, massive net positive. I would buy hand over fist right now. The market would prefer if they grew 80% and went bankrupt.

An alternative is SEDG, they supply the inverters for Solar City, Vivint, and SunRun. Already very profitable. Also CSIQ just went down 7% after beating estimates and higher than expected guidance because SunEdison is a terrible company haha.

You guys need to own one of these stocks, solar is a societal trend that will not stop or peak until at least 2035 (if we figure out fusion) or 2050+ when the earths population starts declining.
 
vpance

vpance

Member
I guess solar will continue to be a dog for a few more years. Long term hold seems smart but with energy down there's still no spark to blast off. I'm in at this level though..
 
Z

Zaraki_Kenpachi

Member
phazedplasma said:
Thinking about buying AMC (its pretty low), with the expectation of it spiking a bit after force awakens box office #s come out.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

Not sure how big of a bump you'll see when they've been missing earnings estimates. Seems like a waste of money. I would think going into Disney to directly reap benefits of the movie is smarter than something weird like that...
 
C

ClosingADoor

Member
°°ToMmY°°;187392801 said:
Is it a good time to buy some stock?

Thinking about buying activion shares...
Click to expand...
Hard to say when is a good time. An individual stock can go up or down depending on what happens any given time.

Why Activision though? Already a pretty big rise over the last year, don't know how much room they have to grow. But I'm not an expert by any means, doing some now as more of a hobby.
 
°

°°ToMmY°°

Member
ClosingADoor said:
Hard to say when is a good time. An individual stock can go up or down depending on what happens any given time.

Why Activision though? Already a pretty big rise over the last year, don't know how much room they have to grow. But I'm not an expert by any means, doing some now as more of a hobby.
Click to expand...

I feel the King acquisition will have a positive effect on Acti stock in the next months.
 
E

Ether_Snake

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SCTY up 25% in three days. Probably going to then crash again as usual.
 
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