Dr. Feel Good
Banned
Anyone surprised that T-Mobile hasn't seen more gains over the past year or two?
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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
- Thread starter koam
- Start date
cpp_is_king
Member
Man, market conditions are really making me nervous. I'm long on a bunch of different stocks, and one in particular (BX) is eating my lunch. Averaged out I'm close to break even, but it's just really hard to stomach taking such a large loss on this other one. At the same time, I'm worried we might be approaching another 2008, and I'm not sure I want to be anywhere other than cash right now.
:-/
:-/
David Incorporated Esq.
Member
Well when you look at how long we've run without a correction, we're bound to be in for a down period, but to expect something on par with 2008? I don't see it. There's just nothing out there that indicates a systemic issue similar to the outright fraud and illegal actions that collapsed major financial institutions in 2008.
Edit: That's not to say that I'm rushing to invest all my money right now, but I'm not worried about something catastrophic.
Edit: That's not to say that I'm rushing to invest all my money right now, but I'm not worried about something catastrophic.
The Power Of Snap
Member
You haven't seen anything bro'
The Power Of Snap
Member
China, and let's be honest and cut the bullshit, the economy is not great in the western regions.
Some banks and hedge funds are gonna bust from the Oil collapse.
David Incorporated Esq.
Member
Every other article I read about China has it going one way or the other, and sure the Western economies aren't wonderful but they're also not bad--American automakers just sold the most cars ever in 2015.
And the price of oil being so low is terrible in some aspects and great in others, is it really that catastrophic?
I know I'm not privy to a lot of information and am only a dabbler, but what could possibly spike a global financial meltdown of 2008's scale? A correction or bear market, sure, but a meltdown? Skyrocketing unemployment in every country in the world? Why?
Ether_Snake
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China's economy depends on the rest of the world's. Emerging markets are crashing, so that's hurting China a lot. Oil falling hurts some countries that imported a lot from China too. A lot of western countries have serious housing bubbles that haven't yet poped and which are now likely to enter that territory. Once that happens, it will pull the rug under everyone.
That being said, on my end there's nothing I can really do, I just add when I can. The only thing that would make me sell is if the US dollar was to crash while the CAD went up, because thankfully the USD's rise and CAD's fall is saving my ass to the point where I'm probably breaking even right now.
My 401k (RRSP) was up 9% last year, and has been up on average 9% since inception in 2006, and all those investments are is 40%US, 30% developed countries excluding US, 20% diversified. I got 0 dollars in Canada. That's all I'm doing nowadays even outside my RRSP, just investing in the broad economy, with a slant towards the US and developed economies.
That being said, on my end there's nothing I can really do, I just add when I can. The only thing that would make me sell is if the US dollar was to crash while the CAD went up, because thankfully the USD's rise and CAD's fall is saving my ass to the point where I'm probably breaking even right now.
My 401k (RRSP) was up 9% last year, and has been up on average 9% since inception in 2006, and all those investments are is 40%US, 30% developed countries excluding US, 20% diversified. I got 0 dollars in Canada. That's all I'm doing nowadays even outside my RRSP, just investing in the broad economy, with a slant towards the US and developed economies.
Anybody seen the recommendation from the Royal Bank of Scotland today?
http://www.theguardian.com/business...head-of-stock-market-crash-say-rbs-economists
Basically they're saying "2016 is going to be fucked. China is fucked. Oil is fucked. Low interest rates and stimulus wont save us. Panic and sell everything."
http://www.theguardian.com/business...head-of-stock-market-crash-say-rbs-economists
Basically they're saying "2016 is going to be fucked. China is fucked. Oil is fucked. Low interest rates and stimulus wont save us. Panic and sell everything."
cue bank of scotland buys everything people are selling and makes a fortune
Ether_Snake
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People who work for banks work to get big bonuses. Every time they say something, it's to make more money, every single time. They're not the world's doctors. Let's see them put their money where their mouths are and tell anyone applying for a loan to not do so and save their money.
Ether_Snake
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I expect the S&P to reach 1800.
cpp_is_king
Member
Some retard analyst is saying he expects the S&P 500 to reach 550 and that this is going to be worse than the great depression.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/13/sp-will-plunge-75-on-china-deflation-socgen-bear.html
lol
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/13/sp-will-plunge-75-on-china-deflation-socgen-bear.html
lol
Ether_Snake
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Yeah, a trade war is less likely than in any previous decade, the world has changed. If it could happen, it would have happened after 2008, it never did. Currencies will far as a result of rate cuts from various central banks, sure, but it won't lead to a "war", it will just put pressure on slowing any interest rate appreciation in order to sustain prices, and governments are FINALLY far more willing to deficit spend than ever. It's no more taboo, a lot of progress has been made on doing away with the deficit-is-evil narrative, mainly thanks to the US' success in navigating the great recession right through the deficit boogeyman.
I expect investments in infrastructure projects in a coincidentally-coordinated fashion globally.
David Incorporated Esq.
Member
Any helpful opinions for SPY vs. VOO for the S&P ETF? From what I've read, VOO has the lower expense ratio but less volume, does lower volume/liquidity matter to a 3-5+ year investor?
Ether_Snake
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I'm in VUG.
vpance
Member
AAII sentiment survey shows investors are the most bearish they've been in the last 10 years. Yes, even more bearish than at any point during the crash of 08-09. Usually this means a significant bounce is coming, but that could just be yet another dead cat to be sold off again.
Gold and gold miners might be a good place to hide in if you're not shorting or buying bear ETFs.
My AAPL $70 AMZN $300 target may come true this year :O
Gold and gold miners might be a good place to hide in if you're not shorting or buying bear ETFs.
My AAPL $70 AMZN $300 target may come true this year :O
The Power Of Snap
Member
I don't expect magic pumps or bounces since people don't have any money to spend on the market.
Funds and banks are going out and selling good stocks to compensate the losses of their oil & resources investments. Some tech stocks like yelp, etsy, twitter, gopro are also all destroyed.
And in Canada, if the housing bubble burst, the banks are gonna have that one to pick up too.
TheRagnCajun
Member
The Canadian government will pick up the bill for the most part, thanks to CMHC insurance.
Any projections for the TSX this year? Already at a 3-year low...
vpance
Member
There's always small bounces on the way down. But I know what you're getting at. The markets were entirely goosed up since 2009 with monetary stimulus. Mom and pop and baby boomers mostly missed this move due fears from the previous crash and nearing retirement age anyways.
Break more than 10% lower and it gets hairy I think.
Ether_Snake
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The current downturn is all about oil and commodities. China's economy is a reactionary one to global economic activity, especially from emerging markets and commodity exporters. The EMs started tanking last year, which hit commodity exporters (and some EM are big commodity exporters themselves), so combine those two together and you get less demand to fuel China's exports, which means less money for China to invest in its own economy, reducing demand for commodity exporters.
But then add to this the over supply of oil that resulted not only from the above, but from an outright refusal to cut production when it would have normally happened in such a situation, and now you start to hit all the oil exporters, many of which aren't even EM.
And now every oil exporter wants to keep exporting to make chump change instead of just going broke, which makes it even worst.
So you can pretty much see a widespread recession on the horizon that will emerge once all the above has exacerbated the economies of those countries enough so.
I'd say we'll have a full year of this, and then a slow upward correction up at some point in the next year as many countries benefit from deficit spending incurred during their recessions. In Europe, if borders are restricted, southern Europe will be stuck with a big crisis it isn't equipped to handle at all, which would jeopardize the EU itself. There's no way that as the EU decides to crack down on the immigration issue, that they would suddenly have a change of heart towards the south and help them deal with this. It will be "everyone for themselves" populist-driven attitude, it has already started.
Some countries will likely default during this whole mess, I'd expect Greece to end up on the front pages again.
But whatever the case, I'm not changing my investment strategy.
But then add to this the over supply of oil that resulted not only from the above, but from an outright refusal to cut production when it would have normally happened in such a situation, and now you start to hit all the oil exporters, many of which aren't even EM.
And now every oil exporter wants to keep exporting to make chump change instead of just going broke, which makes it even worst.
So you can pretty much see a widespread recession on the horizon that will emerge once all the above has exacerbated the economies of those countries enough so.
I'd say we'll have a full year of this, and then a slow upward correction up at some point in the next year as many countries benefit from deficit spending incurred during their recessions. In Europe, if borders are restricted, southern Europe will be stuck with a big crisis it isn't equipped to handle at all, which would jeopardize the EU itself. There's no way that as the EU decides to crack down on the immigration issue, that they would suddenly have a change of heart towards the south and help them deal with this. It will be "everyone for themselves" populist-driven attitude, it has already started.
Some countries will likely default during this whole mess, I'd expect Greece to end up on the front pages again.
But whatever the case, I'm not changing my investment strategy.
And thus, the ultimate takeaway anyone who is investing for the long term should come away with.
thestopsign
Member
Well after selling SCTY at $58 back in December, I just bought it at $33 again with what I made off of the sell. I will hold onto this probably for the next year or two, especially if the oil market slumps its way through 2016.
I think I played it about perfectly on accident. I bought earlier this summer at 37 and 31, sold at 58. Now I am back in at 33.
I think I played it about perfectly on accident. I bought earlier this summer at 37 and 31, sold at 58. Now I am back in at 33.
Melon Husk
Member
Ayy I sold at $58 too. I started buying back sooner though. ATM, had I held back on buying, this is as low as I could have waited.
If you have any "flushed out" stories, feel free to share btw.
Ether_Snake
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Whenever there is a small upshoot on SCTY it rallies lije crazy. I think it went from down 8% today to up 11%. That's because the stock is being shorted like mad by people who think they can make free money shorting it, so as soon as it starts rising for whatever reason they all run for the exit at the same time.
Some people will lose a lot of money playing this game.
Some people will lose a lot of money playing this game.
Melon Husk
Member
Easy come, but I think easy go
I need you so
Although times
I move so slow
Cheri Cheri Lady...
Thor decides tomorrow whether to grab the hammer or not. IWM 100 rejection didn't convince me.
I need you so
Although times
I move so slow
Cheri Cheri Lady...
Thor decides tomorrow whether to grab the hammer or not. IWM 100 rejection didn't convince me.
cpp_is_king
Member
Getting a nice bounce today. Hoping we've hit bottom but I guess time will tell
David Incorporated Esq.
Member
I've been fucking around with MACD analysis on the S&P because why not, numbers are fun, and I'm curious to see what happens after it goes to buy indicators.
I feel like this is applicable.
Ether_Snake
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I really meant I expected it to bounce there. Called it.
Otherwise the next floor would be 1500.
edit: Yeah, I'm calling 1500. Dang, that's gonna hurt
Melon Husk
Member
After a few days of respite, I sense volatility increasing again soon. Last moment train tickets for sale, if you will.
Now, up or down? SPY could be back to 212 by the end of March... or not.
Who knows!
Now, up or down? SPY could be back to 212 by the end of March... or not.
Who knows!
anonymous_abc
Member
Depends on the loans, their rates, costs etc.
In general if you're investing in index funds for the long haul you will make more in return than it costs you to continue paying of your loans as before.
That said, there is something to be said for the psychological ease of mind you might feel if you are debt free quicker by paying them off early.
MesserWolf
Member
It is always recommendable to invest only money you can afford to lose (or stuck for a long time).
David Incorporated Esq.
Member
Sounds like the perfect excuse to share my idiot's MACD chart of SPY!
Short term and long term trends for SPY are converging, which might be an indicator that it's bottoming out. However, aside from playing with excel I have no clue what I'm doing and treating this as anything other than idle entertainment would be a horrible, horrible idea.
Still, makes for a pretty graph, right? One of these days I should take it back ten years and see what that looks like.
ClosingADoor
Member
Depends on the loan. Low interest mortgage? I wouldn't wait until you have paid it off in full. Other loans: get those first.
And only invest money you can afford to lose if you are going to actively trade. Never go all in with your savings! If you are getting in for a retirement fund, there is a thread about that for advice also.
Ether_Snake
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I'm in a pickle.
I'm down, but this has been nullified by the CAD falling since I invested in ETFs in USDs. But now what if the CAD rises? Either it will rise along with the US markets, so I stay stuck even even after a rise in the markets, or the CAD goes up while the USD goes down, doubling my losses if US markets don't increase.
Investing in usd was fine, but if I'l only hoing to follow the s&p and such broad etfs I wonder if I should just buy the Canadian vanguard etfs and cad-hedged ones instead of the US ones.
I'm down, but this has been nullified by the CAD falling since I invested in ETFs in USDs. But now what if the CAD rises? Either it will rise along with the US markets, so I stay stuck even even after a rise in the markets, or the CAD goes up while the USD goes down, doubling my losses if US markets don't increase.
Investing in usd was fine, but if I'l only hoing to follow the s&p and such broad etfs I wonder if I should just buy the Canadian vanguard etfs and cad-hedged ones instead of the US ones.
I'm contemplating moving my USD investment from CAD-unhedged (which gave me huge profits with the CAD falling) to CAD-hedged ones myself but I believe the CAD might fall even more so... I'm holding out.
Ether_Snake
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The thing is if the fed holds back on increasing rates the USD might drop against the CAD which has stabilized a bit. I'm still expecting the housing bubble to pop but who knows how that will play out.
Ether_Snake
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I think patience will be needed with Apple. They'll stay king on the hardware front, but they'll have to expand as a service company. They got some really strong competition from Amazon and Facebook as well as Netflix on that end, and I would say all they could do is buy Netflix. That would allow them to start attacking Amazon Prime.
Eventually they have to get in the social media space. I can't see any entry for them yet there.
Cars are a long shot still, pointless without self driving cars as most people drive cars alone so it doesn't fit in their ecosystem yet.
Eventually they have to get in the social media space. I can't see any entry for them yet there.
Cars are a long shot still, pointless without self driving cars as most people drive cars alone so it doesn't fit in their ecosystem yet.
#dreams
Miles Quaritch
Member
Maybe mentioned already, but the Lloyds share offer in the UK has been suspended until further notice.
I'm fucking fuming.
I'm fucking fuming.
"Chancellor of the Exchequer" sounds like a title of a video game evil boss