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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

I have no idea how options work, but if I understand it, he's betting AAPL tanks to $100? I don't see it dropping it 20% unless Trump signs off one another EO just because.
Pretty much. The guy is an idiot. If his story is true, he wasted 2.5 million dollars by betting on stocks. Like... even if you put that into some dividend fund at 4% a year, you'll have a $100.000 (pre tax) to live on.

He said he got the money 3.5 years ago. If he had put it all in an S&P500 ETF, that money would now be worth 33% more, so 3.3 million give or take + dividends.
 
Pretty much. The guy is an idiot. If his story is true, he wasted 2.5 million dollars by betting on stocks. Like... even if you put that into some dividend fund at 4% a year, you'll have a $100.000 (pre tax) to live on.

He said he got the money 3.5 years ago. If he had put it all in an S&P500 ETF, that money would now be worth 33% more, so 3.3 million give or take + dividends.

a bet against apple on earnings call day is not necessarily a terrible idea.
Investors have always beyond expectations for apple and when they're just slighlty missed, the stock tanks a fair bit.

how often was apple down 5% or something like that in the after hour trading.
of course this is very high risk, but some people like to take huge risks with a potential high reward
 

Smiley90

Stop shitting on my team. Start shitting on my finger.
Still a smaller drop today than Jan16 was, it's alright

still think Trump's gonna tank the economy sooner than later though
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Terrible day on the market today.

Large volume too. I bought some VXX on the trendline break for hopefully a good 1-2 week 5% swing off it. My first trade in 5 years so I'm excited about it either way.

Technical trading needs these pull backs because there's no data to use for new highs. Even going long needs pulling back to give opportunities to buy.

Pretty much. The guy is an idiot. If his story is true, he wasted 2.5 million dollars by betting on stocks. Like... even if you put that into some dividend fund at 4% a year, you'll have a $100.000 (pre tax) to live on.

He said he got the money 3.5 years ago. If he had put it all in an S&P500 ETF, that money would now be worth 33% more, so 3.3 million give or take + dividends.

According to Vangard, there'd be a 20% chance he runs out of money over 50 years if he puts it all into stock indexes and takes out $100,000 a year plus cost of living increases. Risky, but there's also a good chance it turns out so well that you can safely give yourself some really big bonuses as time goes on.
 
Next weeks should be quite rough.


If France and Italy don't fall in the far-right trap I'm going to consider investing in some Euro-Stocks / European market.
 

ColdPizza

Banned
Would be short-lived if it's a result of the election surprises + the immediate follow-up.

I think TWTR will have increased interest because of Trump. They also sold off a a company to google, which I don't think that amount has been disclosed yet. Plus TWTR seems to be making a huge move into streaming sporting events.
 

Ether_Snake

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Hope no one here had Under Armor shares. Always saw it as a horrible company, their tshirs are shit quality. It's just a catchy brand name.

Adidas is the best, wish i would have invested in it when I was saying it was the time when it was in the 40s, but it's OTC so I couldn't really do it.

Nike is like Microsoft, even their sneakers are boring now.
 
livestream in 8 min

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9QhU3wb_aE

too bad I don't have popcorn at home right now

seems like he lost. $AAPL is up 3% afterhour
C3h61R3WYAA5ta1.jpg:large



on topic:
damn twitter did also 4.5% in the last 2 days. i'm not in yet :(
 

Maybesew

Member
I have no idea how options work, but if I understand it, he's betting AAPL tanks to $100? I don't see it dropping it 20% unless Trump signs off one another EO just because.

So what this guy did is a trade known as a "super bear." When you buy puts (a bearing position) and sell calls or a call spread (a bearish position) to pay for the cost of the puts, you are basically double leveraged to the short side. If you wanted to just bet that AAPL would go down, you could have done just one of them, but by doing both, you increase your risk, but also increase your potential profits.

One thing to note, his mechanics of the trade were also very poor. Generally when you are selling a call spread, you want to use out of the money options. For example, when apple was trading at 121 prior to earnings announcement, if he had sold the 125 calls, he could have achieved the same thing, but instead he shorted the 120 calls. This means if Apple hadn't gone up, but just stayed where it was, his call spread would have still lost money.

Secondly, his choice of put strikes was overly aggressive. Again, Apple was trading at 121 before earnings. It could have dropped $10 and his 100 and 105 puts would still expire worthless on Friday. At best they might have broken even, if there was a volatility expansion.

This guy wasn't just playing apple to "drop after earnings," the trade would have needed a 17% down move. If this trade was real it was a stupid trade even if he had only done single contracts of each position.


He didn't lose anything yet. Not until he sells those options or they expire

This is incorrect. Options decay in value every day. There is a metric known as Theta that tracks an individual options daily decay. There is also volatility contraction that takes place a) after earnings reports and b) when stocks move upwards. He has absolutely (if this trade was real in the first place) lost real money already.
 

ColdPizza

Banned
So what this guy did is a trade known as a "super bear." When you buy puts (a bearing position) and sell calls or a call spread (a bearish position) to pay for the cost of the puts, you are basically double leveraged to the short side. If you wanted to just bet that AAPL would go down, you could have done just one of them, but by doing both, you increase your risk, but also increase your potential profits.

One thing to note, his mechanics of the trade were also very poor. Generally when you are selling a call spread, you want to use out of the money options. For example, when apple was trading at 121 prior to earnings announcement, if he had sold the 125 calls, he could have achieved the same thing, but instead he shorted the 120 calls. This means if Apple hadn't gone up, but just stayed where it was, his call spread would have still lost money.

Secondly, his choice of put strikes was overly aggressive. Again, Apple was trading at 121 before earnings. It could have dropped $10 and his 100 and 105 puts would still expire worthless on Friday. At best they might have broken even, if there was a volatility expansion.

This guy wasn't just playing apple to "drop after earnings," the trade would have needed a 17% down move. If this trade was real it was a stupid trade even if he had only done single contracts of each position.




This is incorrect. Options decay in value every day. There is a metric known as Theta that tracks an individual options daily decay. There is also volatility contraction that takes place a) after earnings reports and b) when stocks move upwards. He has absolutely (if this trade was real in the first place) lost real money already.

Well I mean he didn't lose everything. I don't recall the option expiration date either.
 

Ether_Snake

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Bet he would feel much better having 300k right now.

That's the lesson.

He was chasing what he lost, and lost everything as a result.
 

Usobuko

Banned
The analogy to this habit is akin to gambling with borrowed money to him.

In his mind, the show must go on since he already crossed the shaky old bridge mid-way.

It's not unusual, everyone have that kind of inclinations to win back what they lose, especially if it's a big loss.

Now he have debts to pay which means he can't lose his job or something.
 
Nice green colors over in Europe. Steel prices all over the place. Dropping two days, now back up 3%+. Got in yesterday, sold just now. Should have bought a larger amount...
 
AMD going through the roof.

+13% as I write this.


So I was -20% on this stock yesterday, at least I'm back to -7% now.

Hopefully in the green in a few days.
 

Mrbob

Member
Yeah I'm doing well on amd...Had picked up shares when it dropped from high 6 to high 5. Will hold on for awhile. Still angry at myself though for not loading up when it was 1.72. came so close to doing so but didn't.


Snap filed for IPO just now too.
 

Ether_Snake

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I say don't buy SNAP, Instagram will kill it. I already noticed a big drop since Instagram added stories. I never watch nor want to watch ads on SC, but often watch or interact with them on Instagram. Snapchat should have gone public a year ago at least.
 
Snapchat has the major problem of not being integrated in other stuff and it's easily replaceable by another app. The target audience is also not really attached to the platform, if something else works better or a view friends jump ship, they are gone too. Don't see them being relevant like today in a few years still.
 

FinKL

Member
Amazon nails EPS, but fails on revenue. I would of thought amazon would have hit it out of the park on this one with all the retails closing up shop

I don't see Snapchat doing well, teenagers don't have money
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Amazon nails EPS, but fails on revenue. I would of thought amazon would have hit it out of the park on this one with all the retails closing up shop

I don't see Snapchat doing well, teenagers don't have money

Good earnings and lackluster revenue growth seem to be the trend everywhere these days.
 

Deadly Cyclone

Pride of Iowa State
Question for you all. My Dad recently gave me all of the random stock my Grandma had bought as gifts for me over the years. Most was through Computershare, so I set up an account and loaded it. I was able to sell off 4 Pepsi and 1 McDonalds just fine.

Questions:
1. I have 1 more McDonalds that I cannot sell on the site because it is certificated. How do I sell this?
2. I have 3 shares of Nokia that aren't through that site, how do I best manage them?

Would something like RobinHood or an easy, basic sharing site work? What's the best site to get someone new involved in this?
 

Saro

Member
So my dad had $900 in a capital one investment account. He decided to let me use that money and account to see what I could do with it. I made $300 from following AMD but I don't know what to do to expand the portfolio (or even if I should). What should I being doing to grow this account?
 
I got 2000 of cash which I have no use for (got more but that's for emergencies), and have never invested except for a fund my bank manages for me.

Any tips on how to get started? Like where exactly can I do that?

From Austria if that matters.

Thanks for the help
 

BeforeU

Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
I got 2000 of cash which I have no use for (got more but that's for emergencies), and have never invested except for a fund my bank manages for me.

Any tips on how to get started? Like where exactly can I do that?

From Austria if that matters.

Thanks for the help

First you will have to find a stock brokerage in your country. There will be many but look for the one with lowest commission fee. Once you set up the account, transfer the money and you should be all set.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
I think my VXX trade was a little too ambitious when I'm still trying to get my trading sea legs back. At least i'm starting with not much cash in the account no big loss.

I think this week I'll go a little more traditional and play the longer term trends going long CHK and ROK.
 
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