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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
so here’s my thinking. You could see a market correction of around 10% in March but not a deep market correction due to the amount of liquidity kicking in. Also given that inflation is likely to begin rapidly around or after Q3. We could see a deeper correction after Q3 prob heading into next year
 
GHG

GHG

Member
Wtf at QS today.

I swear this is a market that lives and dies by hype at the moment. It's like there's barely any logic left anymore. May as well search for stocks on twitter all day to make decisions.

What will be the hype industry next week? If Elon Musk tweets about condoms are we all investing in latex next week?
 
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Myths

Myths

Member
Those after hour jumps...


images
 
Delf

Delf

Banned
Ya'll want some fun?

Join every pennystock/robinhood Facebook group you can find... holy shit, its just non-stop insanity
nwIsEd2.jpg
 
Myths

Myths

Member
Everyone wants to throw that stimulus money or their retirement funds in hopes of doubling that investment. Worse, since the GME situation and penny stock huddling (without a catalyst or press release) it’s having people think it’ll happen overnight.
 
ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
Seems FT wrote an article confirming my fears as well

Deepak Puri, chief investment officer for the Americas at Deutsche Bank Wealth Management, said he thinks the yield on the 10-year Treasury “needs to be in my mind at least above 1.75 per cent to start really making a dent in the equity market’s structural argument that it’s the best place to be”. If inflation expectations remain upbeat, they could help to rebalance stock markets, sapping high-growth sectors like technology while boosting long unloved sectors such as financials and energy, which are typically more positively correlated with rising inflation.
Click to expand...

A sharp rise in inflationary pressures may offset any nominal revenue increases as companies’ input costs rise too, squeezing profits. A rise in rates could also reduce the present value of companies’ future cash flows, denting equity valuations. “The market will often discount those future cash flows at a higher rate when inflation rises to compensate for the fact [that] they are worth less in today’s money,” Markowicz said.
Click to expand...
 
Go_Ly_Dow

Go_Ly_Dow

Member
MGCLF (MGC Pharma), keep an eye on this one today, consider investing if your own research satisfies you. Do thank me later if it works out. ;)
 
Dynasty8

Dynasty8

Member
Ass of Can Whooping said:
Hold your ETFs. I would periodocally review the ARK ones as they're more speculative and risky.

What are you individual stocks? Are they blue chips? (Microsoft, Apple, Amazon etc)
Click to expand...

Investing $100k total. 50% of that is split between the five ARK ETFs, 20% on other ETFs, 10% in blue chip stocks (MSFT, APL, TSLA), and the rest of the 20% I am playing around with (day/swing trading). I'm definitely in it more for the long term, ARK has done very well for me in the past couple weeks.

ManofOne said:
i think a correction is due at this point atleast before the stimulus is released
Click to expand...

Scares the shit out of me since this will probably be my first "crash" while I have money invested. I do have an emergency fund set aside and I am currently employed, but if we are to see a correction soon, how long does it take typically for the market to recover and for share prices to go back to what they were before (or higher)? I know it's not an easy question to answer, but I just hope I didn't shoot myself for getting in when the prices were too high.
 
ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
Dynasty8 said:
Scares the shit out of me since this will probably be my first "crash" while I have money invested. I do have an emergency fund set aside and I am currently employed, but if we are to see a correction soon, how long does it take typically for the market to recover and for share prices to go back to what they were before (or higher)? I know it's not an easy question to answer, but I just hope I didn't shoot myself for getting in when the prices were too high.
Click to expand...

Not long given the amount of liquidity but I am worried about the years to come

1) Due to inflation
2) Irrational Exubernec on portfolio returns


With interest rates staying so low for so long, the earnings yield in the S&P 500 is now a mere 3% while long-term U.S. interest rates are hovering around 1%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500's dividend yield has fallen to a meager 1.45%:

As a result, a typical 60-40 portfolio that was supposed to generate 4% each year to meet expenses would have to sell over 2.7% of its holdings each year in addition to the dividends and interest received. With an earnings yield of only ~3% (or ~1.5% yield in retained earnings), that puts a lot of pressure on organic growth to make up the difference.


However, once you factor in the likelihood that interest rates will be substantially higher 10-20 years from now, given how historically low they are at present and the reckless money printing and borrowing going on today, it is very likely that the valuation multiples will struggle to keep up with what will likely be meager earnings
Click to expand...
 
GHG

GHG

Member
I need to remind myself that these are just some numbers on a screen.

It's just an RPG and my character has negative status effects. They will pass.
 
HoodWinked

HoodWinked

Member
This GameStop hearing is so dumb I watched for a minute and turned it off. For some reason I pictured it was going to be a floor hearing but obviously it's a shitty zoom call with the expected shit audio and connection issues. To top it off they made maxine waters lead this thing. Shit is unwatchable.
 
DarkestHour

DarkestHour

Banned
ManofOne said:
Mark my words right now Ally Financial and Livent.

I like them and I gonna buy them.

Edit - these will be long term holds for me.
Click to expand...

I just got out of every position to get in both of these. Thanks.

J/K I'm actually too scared to even look at my stuff today especially with PLTR continuing to take hits.
 
haxan7

haxan7

Banned
I have about $2500 cash sitting in my e*trade account. Any ideas what to put it in? I am terrible at picking stocks lately. I want something that will give a nice safe increase. I plan to cash it out around September/October this year when I buy a house.
 
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