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[godhandiscen]

I don't think the bleeding of the tech sector is over. This portfolio has a perma-bull tech sector strategy and it is still performing better than the S&P500, at almost a 20% return for the past year. If the fed really wants to scare people with talks of rate high increases, they need to do better, and I am confident the bearish sentiment will get worse. Betting on seasonality, the tech sector will reach a 12 month performance that's under the S&P 500 in late February and March, and will start to catch up around June.

 

[GHG]

@ricardo_sousa11 how are those diamond hands right now?

Brutal man. Welcome back to the thread.

 

[Fools idol]

we have not yet seen the low for the ongoing bear-market at the index level.

15-20% additional downside before the end of this post-QE contraction imho.. After this bear-market, a new crop of hyper-growth companies likely to emerge as the liquid, institutional grade leaders of the next bull-market. Most of them are beaten down, out of favour right now. Once this downside ends and the Fed folds like a lawn chair, fortunes will be made on the other side. Nothing is guaranteed but likely we'll see a massive rally in high quality beaten down hyper-growth stocks in H2 '22 and '23.

My longs:

$NET
$TSLA
$NVDA
$SOFI
$CDNS
$TWLO

My shorts;

$PTON (green by 80%!)
$SPCE (green by 80%!)
$ARKK

 

[Raven117]

@ricardo_sousa11 how are those diamond hands right now?

Im sure he is fine. He did his DD. LOL

 

[Raven117]

we have not yet seen the low for the ongoing bear-market at the index level.

15-20% additional downside before the end of this post-QE contraction imho.. After this bear-market, a new crop of hyper-growth companies likely to emerge as the liquid, institutional grade leaders of the next bull-market. Most of them are beaten down, out of favour right now. Once this downside ends and the Fed folds like a lawn chair, fortunes will be made on the other side. Nothing is guaranteed but likely we'll see a massive rally in high quality beaten down hyper-growth stocks in H2 '22 and '23.

My longs:

$NET
$TSLA
$NVDA
$SOFI
$CDNS
$TWLO

My shorts;

$PTON (green by 80%!)
$SPCE (green by 80%!)
$ARKK

As always...patience through the bear market (and not doing anything stupid)...will pay off for the long-term investor.

 

[paolo11]

When will PHIL stock go up?

 

[StateofMajora]

Intel earnings report at 5 pm est. I’m loaded and ready. Even if it doesn’t pop i’m long on it.

Was actually hoping for a bigger dip this week on stocks so I can scoop up lol but good for some I guess.

 

[Fools idol]

I'm honestly shocked people are even thinking of buying bitcoin right now. This bear market is going to be brutal with a hawkish fed.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

What a let down. Was having my best in in weeks and ended up barely up.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Intel earnings report at 5 pm est. I’m loaded and ready. Even if it doesn’t pop i’m long on it.

Was actually hoping for a bigger dip this week on stocks so I can scoop up lol but good for some I guess.

Good luck. I had Intel and bailed on it making 6-7% in only a couple weeks as I got cold feet a week ago.

I might get back in another day.

 

[Fools idol]

Oof, tesla had a nice report as expected but market not happy. Down -6%.

I am going to wait a few days and then add to my position there, they should be going gangbusters with berlin factory going online this year.

 

[GHG]

Oof, tesla had a nice report as expected but market not happy. Down -6%.

I am going to wait a few days and then add to my position there, they should be going gangbusters with berlin factory going online this year.

Looks like it's following a similar pattern to Microsoft yesterday. But regardless, there will be plenty of opportunities to get in at lower prices over the next couple of years.

Until lithium prices cool off it's going to be a problem for the EV industry as a whole:

Lithium price hits ‘ludicrous mode’ as battery metal extends 400% gain

Chinese lithium carbonate prices rose to a fresh record on Monday, as data showed a 35% month-on-month jump in electric-vehicle registrations in December.

www.mining.com

 

[Fools idol]

yip, not to mention all the other supply chain related problems. This is gonna be a sideways year at best even for the best companies

 

[StateofMajora]

Intel beat expectations. Shouldn’t take too long to hit 60 or at least back around 56. And if it dips before then that’s just a discount.

None of the other stocks on my watch list are too appealing… it’s all pretty high atm. Maybe I will be focusing on dividend stocks more for right now, rather than trying to catch a deal on short term trades.

 

[zeorhymer]

Looks like it's following a similar pattern to Microsoft yesterday. But regardless, there will be plenty of opportunities to get in at lower prices over the next couple of years.

Until lithium prices cool off it's going to be a problem for the EV industry as a whole:

I'm happy with my material stocks. Up quite a bit due to the supply being low. I wasn't expecting nuclear to hit a slump, but lots of big projects got put on hold. I will be looking at battery manufacturers while the materials market equalizes as once the prices stabilize, we'll see quite a few new products in the market.

 

[Fools idol]

you guys into chip stocks should look at $CDNS and $MRVL. Both very very under the radar with amazing fundamentals.

 

[godhandiscen]

I'm honestly shocked people are even thinking of buying bitcoin right now. This bear market is going to be brutal with a hawkish fed.

I have been DCA'ing into Kadena, and I wouldn't buy BTC.

According to Arthur Hayes, BTC hasn't reached the point of scaring perma-bulls but it might in the following months.

Bottomless | BitMEX Blog

(Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.) Dump-eve 8:00 PM Scanning the horizon, you giddily observe the accumulation...

blog.bitmex.com

 

[GHG]

The volatility curve has inverted while VIX remains elevated, DXY is attempting to breaking out, treasury bonds are selling off, futures are red.

Be careful out there guys. Until you see the above conditions correct course (with the exception of the futures of course, that should go green the day everything calms down) it won't be safe.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Looks like it's following a similar pattern to Microsoft yesterday. But regardless, there will be plenty of opportunities to get in at lower prices over the next couple of years.

Until lithium prices cool off it's going to be a problem for the EV industry as a whole:

Lithium price hits ‘ludicrous mode’ as battery metal extends 400% gain

Chinese lithium carbonate prices rose to a fresh record on Monday, as data showed a 35% month-on-month jump in electric-vehicle registrations in December.

www.mining.com

Any good cheap lithium stocks you know of? Or is the lithium party too late to the game? I've never scoped out lithium stocks ever.

 

[GHG]

Any good cheap lithium stocks you know of? Or is the lithium party too late to the game? I've never scoped out lithium stocks ever.

Not that I know of, they've all run up substantially in the last couple of years before the prices even started to surge due to the EV hype.

Take a look at the holdings of BATT and LIT. There might be some hidden gems in there somewhere but I suspect if you are to find any they might be European or Asian based equities.

 

[HoodWinked]

It's there a hidden danger with selling puts?

Worst thing is just being assigned the shares?

 

[GHG]

It's there a hidden danger with selling puts?

Worst thing is just being assigned the shares?

In the event of volatility expansion it can become very expensive to get out of them if you change your mind for due to something changing with the company or anything else.

We are currently in a high VIX environment already so it's a good time to sell premium but the volatility curve inverting indicates outsized risk. If you are to do it then stick to the nearest monthly expiration cycle (which is currently the 18th Feb) since that's where the highest efficiency currently is from a maintenance/premium ratio perspective. When the volatility curve eventually goes back to normal the most efficiency tends to be in the options expiring 50-70 days out.

But overall as long as you have the capital in your account to cover the cost of the shares then yes, worst comes to worst you will be assigned the shares at the agreed strike price if the stock is trading below it at expiration. Worst comes to worst the stock has blown significantly through your strike price and you just got paid extra to bag hold.

 

[Fools idol]

It's there a hidden danger with selling puts?

Worst thing is just being assigned the shares?

I mean, you are leaving yourself at risk of volatility I suppose.

Selling an OTM put has a higher probability of success but limited profit. Buying a call has a lower probability but unlimited profit potential - I wouldn't personally bother, if you think a stock is moving higher being safe with common stock or simple calls buying is far better.

edit - beaten by the post above me. Lets be honest, we all know the options market has a very high impact on the day to day volatility because whales will place a trade via options then use other peoples massive money they manage to move a stock in a given direction. It is what we saw on friday - fridays 'miracle' save wasn't so much of a miracle as it was clever manipulation by whales. HUGE put seller catalysed relief rally, forcing others to deal w/ increasingly positive delta scrambling to cover their own put hedges. I expect the 10% down to resume

I would be brutally honest and say 99% of people especially in this thread should not fuck with options what so ever. It's a game for bigger fish, even than myself with a million dollar folio. I have seen far too many accounts get evaporated in seconds when a whale decides to nuke some options in their favour. There are hidden buyers and sellers out there so large that the options houses know about, the premiums tell a lot. You should buy a subscription to unusualwhales.com to see where the flow is going if you want any hope of being profitable with options and even then its a risk. I lost $500k in a single 30 second span back in 2019 and never touched them again. It's worse than gambling.

 

[12Goblins]

 

[dem]

Intel beat expectations. Shouldn’t take too long to hit 60 or at least back around 56. And if it dips before then that’s just a discount.

None of the other stocks on my watch list are too appealing… it’s all pretty high atm. Maybe I will be focusing on dividend stocks more for right now, rather than trying to catch a deal on short term trades.

Well that didn't go as expected...

So close to buying INTC..

 

[StateofMajora]

Well that didn't go as expected...

So close to buying INTC..

Yeah, it happens. I’m long, so I just added to my position today. Still have about 40% of my portfolio in cash to trade so if it went further down i’ll add again, but 48 was near the bottom in October when I started buying so this may be the bottom.

 

[BigBooper]

The question about Intel to me is are they too late? I don't think so. I suspect we will continue having chip shortages because more and more will switch to electronic.

 

[StateofMajora]

The question about Intel to me is are they too late? I don't think so. I suspect we will continue having chip shortages because more and more will switch to electronic.

Demand for chips will get higher and higher which is why they’re building that new fab plant in Ohio.

 

[BigBooper]

Demand for chips will get higher and higher which is why they’re building that new fab plant in Ohio.

I meant to include that in my post but completely spaced out apparently. Yes, that was exciting news.

 

[Stop Motion Pornography]

No idea what that dumb robot is doing with trades in my brokerage account, but I'm bleeding money over here

Oh well, HODL'ing it and continuing to buy, hopefully with a 3-4 year sell-off on the horizon so I can buy a house.

 

[Raven117]

I would be brutally honest and say 99% of people especially in this thread should not fuck with options what so ever. It's a game for bigger fish, even than myself with a million dollar folio. I have seen far too many accounts get evaporated in seconds when a whale decides to nuke some options in their favour. There are hidden buyers and sellers out there so large that the options houses know about, the premiums tell a lot. You should buy a subscription to unusualwhales.com to see where the flow is going if you want any hope of being profitable with options and even then its a risk. I lost $500k in a single 30 second span back in 2019 and never touched them again. It's worse than gambling.

Just go check out WallStreetBets on Reddit if someone wants to see this advice confirmed.

 

[GloveSlap]

Yeah, it happens. I’m long, so I just added to my position today. Still have about 40% of my portfolio in cash to trade so if it went further down i’ll add again, but 48 was near the bottom in October when I started buying so this may be the bottom.

I've been doing the same thing as you. I've been waiting for Intel to get their shit together for a while and it has looked good the past few months with the new benchmarks and everything.

I sold some when it popped to $57ish a little while back and then re-bought lower. I wish i could have bought my full stack today at $48ish today, but my average isn't bad.

 

[StateofMajora]

I've been doing the same thing as you. I've been waiting for Intel to get their shit together for a while and it has looked good the past few months with the new benchmarks and everything.

I sold some when it popped to $57ish a little while back and then re-bought lower. I wish i could have bought my full stack today at $48ish today, but my average isn't bad.

I should have done what you did, but I was more cautious and held at 57. But hindsight is 2020.

I believe very strongly in intel right now so i’m more concerned with the huge long term payout rather than taking small profits.

My average is 51ish atm.

 

[GloveSlap]

I should have done what you did, but I was more cautious and held at 57. But hindsight is 2020.

I believe very strongly in intel right now so i’m more concerned with the huge long term payout rather than taking small profits.

My average is 51ish atm.

We are the same person, lol, my average is the same.

I am long also. I didn't even expect good earnings, but its bizarre that its doing so bad on good earnings. Just the state of the market i guess.

 

[Taxexemption]

Lol at TSLA.

Hope you didn't buy at the top.

 

[rochet]

I should have done what you did, but I was more cautious and held at 57. But hindsight is 2020.

I believe very strongly in intel right now so i’m more concerned with the huge long term payout rather than taking small profits.

My average is 51ish atm.

I should have done what you did, but I was more cautious and held at 57. But hindsight is 2020.

I believe very strongly in intel right now so i’m more concerned with the huge long term payout rather than taking small profits.

My average is 51ish atm.

Bought little more today, close 700 shares. I'll keep averaging with every paycheck a little. Its a sure long term bet!

 

[StateofMajora]

We are the same person, lol, my average is the same.

I am long also. I didn't even expect good earnings, but its bizarre that its doing so bad on good earnings. Just the state of the market i guess.

Shorts. All because of shorts. I’m used to these games lol.

 

[chromhound]

Same shit, Different smell

 

[GHG]

Shorts. All because of shorts. I’m used to these games lol.

Please tell me you're joking. If not, people really need to stop this. There are no boogymen shorts or boodymen hedge funds, the market is too large for people to be making these kinds of statements unless you believe they are all colluding.

The market cap dropped from 210B to 195B in one day, shorts alone can't achieve that.

 

[StateofMajora]

Please tell me you're joking. If not, people really need to stop this. There are no boogymen shorts or boodymen hedge funds, the market is too large for people to be making these kinds of statements unless you believe they are all colluding.

The market cap dropped from 210B to 195B in one day, shorts alone can't achieve that.

I’m not joking. It’s been a thing since i’ve been watching the market ; short on good news, trying to shake the little guy.

I’m not saying it’s literally ALL shorts, but mostly. The ridiculously large presence of shorting is what created the gamestop meme stock.

 

[Taxexemption]

I’m not joking. It’s been a thing since i’ve been watching the market ; short on good news, trying to shake the little guy.

I’m not saying it’s literally ALL shorts, but mostly. The ridiculously large presence of shorting is what created the gamestop meme stock.

There are other factors that can move stock. If liquidity is tightening due to rising interest rates or the expectation of them that could force people out of their position. Alternatively if I was convinced of rate hikes I might want to be in cash because I want to buy investments that perform better as interest rates go up.

If you think its shorts then post some data about it. I'm open to the idea.

 

[GHG]

I’m not joking. It’s been a thing since i’ve been watching the market ; short on good news, trying to shake the little guy.

No, please go and get level 2 access via your broker so that you can see what's really going on. A lot of the selling in recent days has been retail. You can tell by the lot sizes.

Shorts are always a thing but they require people selling the stock in order to achieve success. If there are more sellers than buyers then the price goes down. More people being willing to sell can happen for a variety of reasons but right now there's a general lack of buyers, and that's happening across the market at the moment. The FED are also reducing liquidity which reduces the amount of bids on the exchanges.

As far as Intel is concerned in the near term there is good news and bad news.

Good news, it's right at a support level where people have historically stepped and and bought. This is where people will double down if they have previously bought and have strong conviction, so there is a chance of a trend reversal here (or at the very least some near term relief):

Bad news, there was high selling volume today. People were unloading in a hurry.

If it falls below where it is now it's likely going to 44 so prepare yourself and keep an eye on the overall market dynamics. Don't blame things that don't exist when things go against you, irrational thoughts lead to irrational actions.

 

[StateofMajora]

There are other factors that can move stock. If liquidity is tightening due to rising interest rates or the expectation of them that could force people out of their position. Alternatively if I was convinced of rate hikes I might want to be in cash because I want to buy investments that perform better as interest rates go up.

If you think its shorts then post some data about it. I'm open to the idea.

Fear of interest rates is an easy scapegoat but today Intel was down specifically after good earnings ; which is just a pattern i’ve noticed on many stocks. In this case it makes no sense for anyone to be afraid on good news unless they don’t think they can make the money they want in the short term. No longs that are paying attention would sell today.

I simply notice patterns and pay attention to trends in the market and don’t get that technically into it. Trade only in stocks I believe in and only get in on the dips. It’s been a winning strategy for me and i’m not telling anyone to believe me.

 

[StateofMajora]

No, please go and get level 2 access via your broker so that you can see what's really going on. A lot of the selling in recent days has been retail. You can tell by the lot sizes.

Shorts are always a thing but they require people selling the stock in order to achieve success. If there are more sellers than buyers then the price goes down. More people being willing to sell can happen for a variety of reasons but right now there's a general lack of buyers, and that's happening across the market at the moment. The FED are also reducing liquidity which reduces the amount of bids on the exchanges.

As far as Intel is concerned in the near term there is good news and bad news.

Good news, it's right at a support level where people have historically stepped and and bought. This is where people will double down if they have previously bought and have strong conviction, so there is a chance of a trend reversal here (or at the very least some near term relief):

Bad news, there was high selling volume today. People were unloading in a hurry.

If it falls below where it is now it's likely going to 44 so prepare yourself and keep an eye on the overall market dynamics. Don't blame things that don't exist when things go against you, irrational thoughts lead to irrational actions.

I’m aware of the support level and if indeed it dropped to 44 (which I highly doubt) I would simply look at it as another opportunity. I will take your comments about the retail sell off into consideration.

 

[HoodWinked]

Elon had a pretty bad earnings call. But it wasn't the guidance or the sales or margin. It was because he kept talking about FSD and robots and investors didn't like that, they wanted to know about the $20k car and the factories. lol.

T

 

[Fools idol]

Elon deliberately manipulates the oldschool analysts that typically question him on the call so that they sell the stock or even better, short the stock. I'm convinced. In fact I have even heard rumours he talks indirectly with Gary Black from the future fund and a couple
others privately.

He does this because unlike most CEO's he cares about the retail guys. It's why he pumps cryptos, it's why he announced his stock sale at the top clear as day, it's why he drops hints and clues, it's why he got in trouble with the SEC for saying shit.

When Elon announced 'stock is too high imo' he knew full well that S&P inclusion was coming along with another blowout earnings and almost inevitable stock rally. The oldschool and stupid short sellers piled in on the knee jerk reaction to that tweet and added fuel to the fire that Elon was about to spark.

Once this market volatility settles, you better buy Tesla. It's a $1T giant cap growing like s startup - with less than 5% of it's TAM reached. Facts!!

I can not see a world where this stock doesn't go up 10x from it's current price. Which means if you can buy 100 shares, just 100 shares! you will be a millionaire 'one day'.

 

[GHG]

He does this because unlike most CEO's he cares about the retail guys. It's why he pumps cryptos, it's why he announced his stock sale at the top clear as day, it's why he drops hints and clues, it's why he got in trouble with the SEC for saying shit.

So we're at this stage? We had fiction on the way up, so I guess it's only normal that we have fiction on the way down as well.

Once this market volatility settles, you better buy Tesla. It's a $1T giant cap growing like s startup - with less than 5% of it's TAM reached. Facts!!

I can not see a world where this stock doesn't go up 10x from it's current price. Which means if you can buy 100 shares, just 100 shares! you will be a millionaire 'one day'.

There are no facts, you can't predict the future, nobody can. Tesla is a business with a long road ahead of them to get anywhere near justifying their current market cap, let alone the one it had at its highs. They will face many hurdles ahead of them, just like every other growing business ever has. Some succeed in meeting their goals and justifying elevated bull market stock prices, some fail (in fact, most fail unfortunately). Please don't become one of those bitcoin-esque pumpers.

 

[ape2man]

He does this because unlike most CEO's he cares about the retail guys. It's why he pumps cryptos, it's why he announced his stock sale at the top clear as day, it's why he drops hints and clues, it's why he got in trouble with the SEC for saying shit.

LOL, all hail Elon SAINT muskkkkk

 

[Ellery]

Knowing Tesla we will probably see the biggest call option infused rally today hitting 1500$ ATH making Elon so rich he buys Toyota and Volkswagen with his personal cash.

 

[StateofMajora]

GHG well now I would be less surprised if it hit 44 later haha… i’m going to see where it finds new support before thinking of adding more.