Support NeoGAF

[godhandiscen]

I was hoping to buy today and now my broker cannot make transactions. FML.

My account is down 4% on open.. jesus christ


Facebook has 2.9 billion MAU...
I mean.. are people actually expecting growth of USERS? They already have 40 percent of the fucking planet.

Meta app family is 3.5 billion. Christ.

This Facebook is dying narrative is absurd.

As always... I will keep buying facebook on the bad news.

It is because of the demographics of their user base. In the first world, Facebook has been bleeding users for years, most user growth comes from the third world, and those aren't as valuable to investors. Also, Facebook's user base is aging. The new generations believe Facebook is for boomers and don't even signup for Instagram anymore. TikTok and other emerging social media are the walled gardens of the future. Couple that with Apple fucking facebook over with privacy permissions, and Facebook is looking grim. They are even having trouble retaining talent, and are forced to give the largest offers for similar talent among Big Tech companies.

Also, with regards to the meta verse, what makes you believe it will be Facebook that capitalizes on it? Facebook could be first, but it could also be leap frogged by a competitor.

 

[dem]

I was hoping to buy today and now my broker cannot make transactions. FML.



It is because of the demographics of their user base. In the first world, Facebook has been bleeding users for years, most user growth comes from the third world, and those aren't as valuable to investors. Also, Facebook's user base is aging. The new generations believe Facebook is for boomers and don't even signup for Instagram anymore. TikTok and other emerging social media are the walled gardens of the future. Couple that with Apple fucking facebook over with privacy permissions, and Facebook is looking grim. They are even having trouble retaining talent, and are forced to give the largest offers for similar talent among Big Tech companies.

Also, with regards to the meta verse, what makes you believe it will be Facebook that capitalizes on it? Facebook could be first, but it could also be leap frogged by a competitor.

You say this stuff.. but none of it is reflected in the numbers.
And quite frankly... where the fuck is FB supposed to get more users? They already won the user game. It's now about keeping them and growing the revenue per user.

https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2021/q4/Q4-2021_Earnings-Presentation-Final.pdf

MAU actually grew in NA, Europe, and Asia.
Rest of the world was down.

Revenue per user is up big in NA, Europe, and Asia.


I don't own Facebook for the Metaverse. Meta is just a bonus. One with a potential huge upside.

People keep saying the kids don't use facebook... well wait until they have kids and need to unload their crap. Are they going to sell it on TikTok marketplace?

TikTok and Snapchat and all the other apps people claim are Facebook killers... simply don't offer the same service Facebook does. Quite frankly, I don't see anyone even remotely close.

 

[GHG]

Facebook is not a growth story from a social media perspective, it hasn't been for years. They are at saturation point and the only places they can potentially get more users are emerging markets that still have internet access growth potential. Pretty much everyone that has the internet has a Facebook account (or has had one at some point), whether that's for the purposes of using facebook itself or for instagram.

The only people still trying to sell facebook as a growth company are moronic pumper analysts who have a vested interest in doing so. Show me another "growth" company that does $50 billion share buybacks.

Like dem alluded to, the only area of potential growth for the company is the metaverse stuff and that's all relatively new. As long as their MAU and Revenue don't start declining then there's no reason to be alarmed.

Don't let the noise distract you, the drop today is nothing to do with their current performance, it's more about the economic outlook going forwards in the short-medium term. The market needs to somehow price in these looming rate hikes and they will use any excuse they can to start doing it. Everything will fall.

 

[dem]

I'd argue there is more growth than just this narrow VR metaverse everyone is hung up on.

Things like store integration and payment processing are in their infancy. There is still a long runway for Meta, imo.

 

[Taxexemption]

I'd argue there is more growth than just this narrow VR metaverse everyone is hung up on.

Things like store integration and payment processing are in their infancy. There is still a long runway for Meta, imo.

Why would I use facebook payment processing? Why would I shop at a facebook store? I don't really use facebook, so it is hard for me to understand the appeal.

Edit: I do some vr stuff but its all in vrchat. Personally I dislike the occulus, and they make it such a headache not to use their version of the store or to run mods by other companies I don't ever see myself supporting facebook financially again. I regret my decision not to go straight for a valve headset, and will sell my occulus one of these weekends when I'm not feeling lazy.

 

[dem]

Why would I use facebook payment processing? Why would I shop at a facebook store? I don't really use facebook, so it is hard for me to understand the appeal.

Why would you send money with Venmo when you can send money with Whatsapp or FB Messenger? Instagram Shops are already a thing.

Why wouldn't I buy/sell something on Facebook Marketplace using a built in payment system?

 

[Taxexemption]

Why would you send money with Venmo when you can send money with Whatsapp or FB Messenger?

Why wouldn't I buy/sell something on Facebook Marketplace using a built in payment system?

I mean, sure. Why would I though? I refuse to download new apps. It's such a hassle to learn any new systems or remember one more passwords. At this point I need a strong case made to do anything new.

Also I get enough crap with my bank declining charges at certain stores (sporting good stores that sell firearms) because they disagree with their politics. I don't want Facebook anywhere near my money.

 

[godhandiscen]

You say this stuff.. but none of it is reflected in the numbers.
And quite frankly... where the fuck is FB supposed to get more users? They already won the user game. It's now about keeping them and growing the revenue per user.

https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2021/q4/Q4-2021_Earnings-Presentation-Final.pdf

MAU actually grew in NA, Europe, and Asia.
Rest of the world was down.

Revenue per user is up big in NA, Europe, and Asia.


I don't own Facebook for the Metaverse. Meta is just a bonus. One with a potential huge upside.

People keep saying the kids don't use facebook... well wait until they have kids and need to unload their crap. Are they going to sell it on TikTok marketplace?

TikTok and Snapchat and all the other apps people claim are Facebook killers... simply don't offer the same service Facebook does. Quite frankly, I don't see anyone even remotely close.

When you look at DAUs in the US/CAN, you see they peaked in Q42020 and are trending downwards since, all the growth was rest of the world. MAUs are slightly trending up however, which for an application such as Facebook, it can mean that someone at some point had to go into Facebook for an activation or something.

Revenue per user is up big in NA, Europe, and Asia.

The ARPP has not kept up with inflation, probably due to the iOS privacy restrictions. For a platform that should benefit from the new pandemic culture, it seems like Google with Youtube is setting the pace. Also, I would like to see Instagram's numbers too, i couldn't find them. It would be interesting to look at TikTok's numbers too, but they aren't public.

 

[StateofMajora]

I was hoping to buy today and now my broker cannot make transactions. FML.



It is because of the demographics of their user base. In the first world, Facebook has been bleeding users for years, most user growth comes from the third world, and those aren't as valuable to investors. Also, Facebook's user base is aging. The new generations believe Facebook is for boomers and don't even signup for Instagram anymore. TikTok and other emerging social media are the walled gardens of the future. Couple that with Apple fucking facebook over with privacy permissions, and Facebook is looking grim. They are even having trouble retaining talent, and are forced to give the largest offers for similar talent among Big Tech companies.

Also, with regards to the meta verse, what makes you believe it will be Facebook that capitalizes on it? Facebook could be first, but it could also be leap frogged by a competitor.

What broker do you use? Are you in usa? I use fidelity investments they are great.

—-

Dividend date for intel tomorrow, something about free money makes me happy :]

 

[godhandiscen]

What broker do you use? Are you in usa? I use fidelity investments they are great.

—-

Dividend date for intel tomorrow, something about free money makes me happy :]

Vanguard, it was just a hiccup. I shouldn't have bought today regardless.

 

[dem]

Oh thank Christ... AMZN

 

[GHG]

Oh thank Christ... AMZN

Wait until they actually read it and realise how the EPS is what it is.

 

[dem]

Wait until they actually read it and realise how the EPS is what it is.

Yeah... its more than a little concerning.

 

[GHG]

Yeah... its more than a little concerning.

Honestly this is all becoming a bit of a joke now:

Amazon on Thursday said revenue climbed 9% in the fourth quarter and the company reported a gain of almost $12 billion from its investment in electric vehicle company Rivian.

Amazon’s big profit gain on Rivian is the result of the electric vehicle maker’s IPO in November. The deal priced at $78 a share, valuing the company at $66.5 billion. The stock climbed past $172 at its peak, but has since fallen back to about $60. Shares of Rivian gained 3% in extended trading on Thursday.

Apparently the guidance doesn't matter for this stock either:

Amazon guided for first quarter revenue of between $112 billion and $117 billion, below the average estimate of $120 billion, according to Refinitiv.

I hope nobody falls for this crap and buys tomorrow.

 

[Ass of Can Whooping]

Got a big position with FB now. Got pretty giddy tbh. Finally a super tech stock with good value.

Gonna aim to get it to around 6% of my portfolio over the coming months

Can't wait for the rest of them to follow.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Got a big position with FB now. Got pretty giddy tbh. Finally a super tech stock with good value.

Can't wait for the rest of them to follow.

Big drop, but at a 17 P/E which is incredible for a tech stock. Good luck and hope you make some $$$ on it.

I've never had the balls to buy any of these big tech stocks at $100s of dollars. Or Amazon, Google at $1000s.

 

[Ass of Can Whooping]

Big drop, but at a 17 P/E which is incredible for a tech stock. Good luck and hope you make some $$$ on it.

I've never had the balls to buy any of these big tech stocks at $100s of dollars. Or Amazon, Google at $1000s.

Thanks man

I'm pretty conservative with my valuation of it. Even assuming 15 % growth over the next 5 - 10 years I think it's a good buy

 

[GHG]

Got a big position with FB now. Got pretty giddy tbh. Finally a super tech stock with good value.

Gonna aim to get it to around 6% of my portfolio over the coming months

Can't wait for the rest of them to follow.

I'm selling puts on this and I actually want to get assigned for once.

 

[Ass of Can Whooping]

I'm selling puts on this and I actually want to get assigned for once.

Godspeed this baby deserves a place in your portfolio

 

[dem]

At what point does Activision become a buy with that 20% upside nearly in the pocket...?

Whats the timeline on that? 1 year? How long does it take to get paid post acquisition?

 

[GHG]

At what point does Activision become a buy with that 20% upside nearly in the pocket...?

When Lina Khan winds her neck in.

Right now it's fully out, so that's why the market is pricing the stock as they are.

 

[Ass of Can Whooping]

Facebook market - $190B evaporated over night. Absolute madness. They barely missed. If Amazon misses tonight we are all fucked.

Lol can't wait

This turd market is finally unwrapping. The fact that a bit of bad guidance is capable of wiping out half or more of a company's value is really telling.

 

[GHG]

Lol can't wait

This turd market is finally unwrapping. The fact that a bit of bad guidance is capable of wiping out half or more of a company's value is really telling.

And on the other hand, Amazon missed, have poor guidance and pumped their numbers using inflated RIVN holdings. Lo and behold they are up over 10%.

Let's see what tomorrow brings in the casino that is the US stock market.

I can't take this shit seriously until people start respecting valuations again.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

And on the other hand, Amazon missed, have poor guidance and pumped their numbers using inflated RIVN holdings. Lo and behold they are up over 10%.

Let's see what tomorrow brings in the casino that is the US stock market.

I can't take this shit seriously until people start respecting valuations again.

Up 14% now AH.

Way back during the tech bubble 2000, it was a hell of a lot more predictable when a company would go up or down based on earnings. Beat the street and good guidance = up. Miss the earnings or bad forecast = bad.

Now it seems you never what the fuck will happen.

 

[Ass of Can Whooping]

And on the other hand, Amazon missed, have poor guidance and pumped their numbers using inflated RIVN holdings. Lo and behold they are up over 10%.

Let's see what tomorrow brings in the casino that is the US stock market.

I can't take this shit seriously until people start respecting valuations again.

Yup. Got sick of it which is why I just took a break from it all. This market has been nothing but gambling.

 

[GHG]

Yup. Got sick of it which is why I just took a break from it all. This market has been nothing but gambling.

I have to say though, it's been worth it for the WSB meltdowns and the memes.




This crash will be epic, not because the losses might end up being the most in history, but because we will have current day internet and social media documenting it all in real time.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

I have to say though, it's been worth it for the WSB meltdowns and the memes.




This crash will be epic, not because the losses might end up being the most in history, but because we will have current day internet and social media documenting it all in real time.

I dont follow Paypal. What does that tweet mean about Paypal? They are doing something shady?

 

[GHG]

I dont follow Paypal. What does that tweet mean about Paypal? They are doing something shady?

No it's a joke, their stock is down 54% on a 12 month basis and continues to fall:

Anyone who sold naked puts or went long on margin on this stock will have been torn apart unless they were aggressive with their risk management.

 

[Ass of Can Whooping]

I dont follow Paypal. What does that tweet mean about Paypal? They are doing something shady?

Yeah I think Hedge Funds like Melvin Capital were long on PayPal. Wasn't following but they probably got margin called along with others

Fucking hilarious. They've honestly lost their minds

 

[Taxexemption]

No it's a joke, their stock is down 54% on a 12 month basis and continues to fall:

Anyone who sold naked puts or went long on margin on this stock will have been torn apart unless they were aggressive with their risk management.

If I had a crystal ball that showed me future stock prices I still wouldn't be selling naked options. It's like "i'm gonna make money off this trade or maybe go broke and ruin my life."

 

[GHG]

If I had a crystal ball that showed me future stock prices I still wouldn't be selling naked options. It's like "i'm gonna make money off this trade or maybe go broke and ruin my life."

Well the idea is that you shouldn't do it using money that has the potential to ruin your life. It's not investing, it's trading. There are a ton of rules you can follow though to do it safely, it's just that most people lack the required discipline or don't have the time to dedicate to watch and manage positions.

 

[GHG]

LMAO this was the last thing I was expecting when checking in on the futures on tradingview:

The meta-reverse is what it shall be called from now on.

 

[GloveSlap]

That Amazon rip was just what i needed. Was able to turn my account back green after getting smacked around (like everyone) the past few weeks.

 

[godhandiscen]

This was a good week.

 

[Taxexemption]

Well the idea is that you shouldn't do it using money that has the potential to ruin your life. It's not investing, it's trading. There are a ton of rules you can follow though to do it safely, it's just that most people lack the required discipline or don't have the time to dedicate to watch and manage positions.

Okay. What if there is a sudden scandal announced in the news and the stock starts trading for fractions of pennies? Inversely, what if you are the other side of the naked option and some biomeme stock discovers a drug that prevents cancer or slows aging and overnight it's gone from pennies to trading for thousands of dollars a share?


Granted those scenarios are unlikely, but the risk is virtually unlimited if the position is naked. In my opinion you should'nt be allowed to do this stuff, and if you ask they should send you to a funny farm.

 

[GHG]

Okay. What if there is a sudden scandal announced in the news and the stock starts trading for fractions of pennies? Inversely, what if you are the other side of the naked option and some biomeme stock discovers a drug that prevents cancer or slows aging and overnight it's gone from pennies to trading for thousands of dollars a share?


Granted those scenarios are unlikely, but the risk is virtually unlimited if the position is naked. In my opinion you should'nt be allowed to do this stuff, and if you ask they should send you to a funny farm.

No those scenarios are more likely than you think and can come about. You especially shouldn't do naked options on Biotech, you're asking to get blown up. I've seen it all and I've only been on r/thetagang for about 8 months.

The "safest" way to trade naked is to only do index funds, only sell in elevated VIX environments, sell far from the market, don't sell under 25 days to avoid gamma risk, delta hedge, don't hold till expiration, and have set rules for when you manage the position should it go against you, never use more than 50% of your margin allowance at one time - 30% is actually ideal.

Most people aren't disciplined enough to do all of the above and/or to make sure the conditions are right before selling (and most people don't even properly understand the mechanics of options and why you need to do all of the above). Too many people chase high premiums on individual stocks (if the premiums are high on an individual stock then there is a reason) and too many people YOLO using up all of their margin allowance so there's zero margin for error if it goes against you.

If naked options were suddenly banned then the options market goes with it, most options that are traded are naked, especially in the more liquid options chains with tight spreads.

The vast majority of hedge funds sell naked options, they are the market makers. Hell, some hedge funds only sell naked options - these guys are like the stock market insurance brokers. There is a way to do it safely (there are actually many ways to do it safely) but most people don't have a fucking clue what they're doing. A better idea would be to have some sort of qualification requirement to do it but then how will the brokers and market in general be able to profit from people's incompetence?

Edit: I'll also note that the risk is only unlimited when selling naked calls. With naked puts you will always have a defined max loss, its just that you won't be able to afford it

 

[Taxexemption]

No those scenarios are more likely than you think and can come about. You especially shouldn't do naked options on Biotech, you're asking to get blown up. I've seen it all and I've only been on r/thetagang for about 8 months.

The "safest" way to trade naked is to only do index funds, only sell in elevated VIX environments, sell far from the market, don't sell under 25 days to avoid gamma risk, delta hedge, don't hold till expiration, and have set rules for when you manage the position should it go against you, never use more than 50% of your margin allowance at one time - 30% is actually ideal.

Most people aren't disciplined enough to do all of the above and/or to make sure the conditions are right before selling (and most people don't even properly understand the mechanics of options and why you need to do all of the above). Too many people chase high premiums on individual stocks (if the premiums are high on an individual stock then there is a reason) and too many people YOLO using up all of their margin allowance so there's zero margin for error if it goes against you.

If naked options were suddenly banned then the options market goes with it, most options that are traded are naked, especially in the more liquid options chains with tight spreads.

The vast majority of hedge funds sell naked options, they are the market makers. Hell, some hedge funds only sell naked options - these guys are like the stock market insurance brokers. There is a way to do it safely (there are actually many ways to do it safely) but most people don't have a fucking clue what they're doing. A better idea would be to have some sort of qualification requirement to do it but then how will the brokers and market in general be able to profit from people's incompetence?

Edit: I'll also note that the risk is only unlimited when selling naked calls. With naked puts you will always have a defined max loss, its just that you won't be able to afford it

I just don't buy into the idea that naked options should be a thing. It just doesn't make sense to me. You should have to own something to sell the rights to it.


So like, if I sold you the rights to become a tentacle monster by the year 2060, why can I do that? Why would I be able to sell a product I can only maybe actually give you? I mean its not inconceivable that I will be able to do that by 2060. Should I be able to go out and sell that right?

 

[GHG]

I just don't buy into the idea that naked options should be a thing. It just doesn't make sense to me. You should have to own something to sell the rights to it.


So like, if I sold you the rights to become a tentacle monster by the year 2060, why can I do that? Why would I be able to sell a product I can only maybe actually give you? I mean its not inconceivable that I will be able to do that by 2060. Should I be able to go out and sell that right?

Well you would be unwise to sell a 2060 option, nobody can see that far into the future.

Overall you're thinking about this in the wrong way. Options are insurance, nothing more, nothing less. The whole mechanic revolves around the idea that "if the stock does X then I the seller of said option am obligated to do Y". That can be taking on shares or giving shares dependant on whether its a put or call. What the stock does between the time of sale and expiration doesn't change the terms of the contract, it only changes the price and value of the contract. What you are doing when you sell naked options is you are selling theta. The problem is, most people use naked options to take advantage of delta which is the opposite of what you should do. Hence, when the delta moves against them they get hit with margin calls.

Do insurance companies have houses, possessions and cars to give everyone if they all burn down at once? No. The moment said event becomes more likely insurance premiums go up, the risk is higher for the insurance firms so they need to be compensated appropriately. That's also why reinsurance exists. Reinsurance also exists for naked options, you just don't have to take it out at the time you draw up the contract.

 

[Taxexemption]

Well you would be unwise to sell a 2060 option, nobody can see that far into the future.

Overall you're thinking about this in the wrong way. Options are insurance, nothing more, nothing less. The whole mechanic revolves around the idea that "if the stock does X then I the seller of said option am obligated to do Y". That can be taking on shares or giving shares dependant on whether its a put or call. What the stock does between the time of sale and expiration doesn't change the terms of the contract, it only changes the price and value of the contract. What you are doing when you sell naked options is you are selling theta. The problem is, most people use naked options to take advantage of delta which is the opposite of what you should do. Hence, when the delta moves against them they get hit with margin calls.

Do insurance companies have houses, possessions and cars to give everyone if they all burn down at once? No. The moment said event becomes more likely insurance premiums go up, the risk is higher for the insurance firms so they need to be compensated appropriately. That's also why reinsurance exists. Reinsurance also exists for naked options, you just don't have to take it out at the time you draw up the contract.

I disagree. It seems like some kind of magic that defies the way things should work. If I was a cartoonist I'd create a captain planet knockoff where the bad guys do stuff like this.

"Through the power of complex financial transactions, I'll cause your stock price to fall!"

 

[GHG]

I disagree. It seems like some kind of magic that defies the way things should work. If I was a cartoonist I'd create a captain planet knockoff where the bad guys do stuff like this.

"Through the power of complex financial transactions, I'll cause your stock price to fall!"

Well... You joke but this is literally what hedge funds do. Sell options at certain prices and then manipulate the stock to ensure they're all worthless on expiration. They then pocket all the premium while the buyers (predominately retail) lose everything. Retail are net buyers of options and hedge funds are net sellers.

Luckily for us, we can see open interest and volume on options. Everyone see what options are being sold which allows us to get a better idea of what the stock is likely to do within certain time frames. It's not foolproof however since news (for individual stocks) or black swan events (for indexes) can throw things out of whack. But generally speaking for the monthly expirations 11 months out of 12 they will ensure the stock or index closes outside of areas of max pain. No insurance provider ever wants to have to pay out if they can help it.

When people talk about big bad hedge funds and manipulation, it's not the stock they should be looking at, you're not on the clock when you buy a stock. All of the crazy activity takes place in the options market.

 

[StateofMajora]

Are we really in here saying options are a scam lmao

 

[Taxexemption]

Are we really in here saying options are a scam lmao

Naked options. If you have collateral I see no problem. I occasionally write options for a price I want to sell my stock for, I'm not against the whole thing, I just don't like the idea of a naked option.


If I sold you a house or car I didn't own, wouldn't that be a problem? Like, why can I sell you something I don't already have? That seems deeply wrong to me.

 

[StateofMajora]

Naked options. If you have collateral I see no problem. I occasionally write options for a price I want to sell my stock for, I'm not against the whole thing, I just don't like the idea of a naked option.


If I sold you a house or car I didn't own, wouldn't that be a problem? Like, why can I sell you something I don't already have? That seems deeply wrong to me.

It is wrong but there’s money to be made if you’re willing. We just have to be aware of the manipulation and protect ourselves.

 

[Raven117]

Are we really in here saying options are a scam lmao

Of course not.

 

[GHG]

Naked options. If you have collateral I see no problem. I occasionally write options for a price I want to sell my stock for, I'm not against the whole thing, I just don't like the idea of a naked option.


If I sold you a house or car I didn't own, wouldn't that be a problem? Like, why can I sell you something I don't already have? That seems deeply wrong to me.

That's not how it works, when you sell an option you are giving someone else a conditional contract, not the underlying asset. There is value in these contracts for various reasons and that value changes over time as the market fluctuates.

Should buyers of options need to have or be willing to take on the underlying asset as well if things go in their favour? Because I can tell you most don't. Most options don't end up being exercised by the original purchaser and an even higher percentage get closed prior to expiration, which is why there is a mad flurry of options activity on Friday as the market is about to close.

At the time contracts are written greeks on the underlying are being exchanged, the underlying itself is not (yet - that only comes at expiration and neither the buyer or seller are obligated to hold the contract through to expiration). I'd strongly recommend you give the following a read:

 

[BigBooper]

If it's admitted that they're prone to manipulation then it's fair to think they shouldn't be allowed. Not that we have any power to control anything.

 

[Fools idol]

I bought a few PayPal shares during the early morning selloff down to 120$ or so, it seems like the risk reward of dollar cost averaging in here is far safer for a long term hold.

PayPal is not going anywhere, I personally use it almost weekly even though most sites have so many payment options these days, paypal is convenient and fast. I think their near monopoly on eBay related payments is quite an advantage during these times too. I think in a 3-5 year horizon I will be glad I bought here and rode out the volatility.

 

[godhandiscen]

I joined EquityZen to try to buy some pre-ipo stock for Discord and SpaceX. Do you guys have experience with it?

 

[zeorhymer]

I joined EquityZen to try to buy some pre-ipo stock for Discord and SpaceX. Do you guys have experience with it?

Careful with Discord. Their model isn't very sustainable. Besides merch and data, the only other way for them to make money is through "boosts." They're not marketing that very much and not many people are willing to pay for said boosts.

I already flopped with Virgin Galactic. SpaceX probably will have a better time due to their constant contracts.

 

[GHG]

Space will do well because of the Musk factor. It will be interesting to see how his cult manage to balance both TSLA and that.