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[RustyNails]

If they start pumping out 3's at 500k a year any time soon, they'll have to double that doubling and triple that tripling to keep up. They have made around 120k model s's total so far and at least two dozen model x's. 3 is going to dwarf the others in no time.

My bet is you'll have to pay for supercharger access.

They made 120k Model S because that's the demand cap. I'm sure they understand that Model 3 requires a completely different business model. But 200k+ reserved Model 3's shows to investors that a big payday is coming, so they will be able to raise more capital for more production capacity in no time. Musk simply has to ask.

 

[Septimus Prime]

4 hours? In a 35k tesla it will be 30 mins every 2.5 hours if you do it perfectly. 20% of your travel time will be refueling.

My point is exactly that people never really take trips like that, so supercharging isn't that big of a deal. When you do need to drive very far you will either take your other car or rent a car. And to the people who make a big deal of range (people who probably aren't actually interested in an EV), supercharging isn't good enough. The range of the cars isn't good enough.

Sorry, I live in LA, and there is no way my average speed is 60+ mph on my commutes. =(

 

[Bboy AJ]

I've always been fascinated by people who use exceptions to refute normal use. Who cares about cross country driving. It's like talking about snow use when you live where it snows maybe five times a year. Idgaf

 

[captive]

I've always been fascinated by people who use exceptions to refute normal use. Who cares about cross country driving. It's like talking about snow use when you live where it snows maybe five times a year. Idgaf

My wife and I go to Austin to visit friends 3 or 4 times a year. It's 160 miles door to door. But I would still stop at the super charger station in columbus(half way) to charge and bathroom break and eat. With a wife and two kids we may have stop to potty more often than that. Its really no big deal. People with range anxiety are just looking for excuses.
Over the past 6 years with my wife we maybe take one road trip longer than 200 miles a year. And We take lots of road trips to bed and breakfast and such. We still stop to eat and for gas anyway. What's the difference with charger the car while you eat?

 

[shinshoryuken]

What happens when all the chargers are taken?

 

[Bboy AJ]

What happens when all the chargers are taken?

Same thing that happens when all the gas pumps are taken. Except this time, I also have a pump at my house.

Edit: it's really disappointing how all the alleged gear heads are fighting hard for the status quo. There are fewer industries that desperately need a shake up than the auto one. I love my cars and motorcycles. But I'll be damned if I am blind to the need for a shake up.

 

[Phreaker]

Tesla is betting that people like you (who will rarely use the superchargers) will still buy the car at the end of the day. Tesla doesn't need to win over all of the naysayers out of the gate, they just need to pick some off at the margins and they obviously believe that free supercharging is the way to do it.

It will be interesting to watch it play out.

What they really need to do is make some money. I don't get how they are going to make money on the Model 3. They lose almost 20k for each Model S they sell.

 

[shinshoryuken]

Same thing that happens when all the gas pumps are taken. Except this time, I also have a pump at my house.

Edit: it's really disappointing how all the alleged gear heads are fighting hard for the status quo. There are fewer industries that desperately need a shake up than the auto one. I love my cars and motorcycles. But I'll be damned if I am blind to the need for a shake up.

Hey that's a valid question!

Like what if the charging station is pack with multiple cars queued up ...

 

[PG2G]

Not sure what's worse, the people harping on the shortcomings or the folks that think they don't exist.

 

[subrock]

What they really need to do is make some money. I don't get how they are going to make money on the Model 3. They lose almost 20k for each Model S they sell.

No, they don't. They reinvest heavily in their infrastructure, but if you call that losing money on every car I think that's an acceptable "loss" to them. Their car sales alone are profitable.

 

[BruceCLea]

I'm gonna get one in 5 years! When my other car shits the bed and the pre-orders are all shipped!

 

[shinshoryuken]

Not sure what's worse, the people harping on the shortcomings or the folks that think they don't exist.

Yup...this thread wouldn't be as fun without both.

I'm open to getting a Tesla, but unlike many, I'm still skeptical.

 

[PG2G]

Hey that's a valid question!

Like what if the charging station is pack with multiple cars queued up ...

You wait 5x as long as you would at a gas station. The scalability of the supercharger network has the potential to be a real issue. Parking your car and going to grab lunch doesn't really seem like a considerate option anymore when you have a line of people behind you that want you off as soon as possible.

 

[duderon]

Not sure what's worse, the people harping on the shortcomings or the folks that think they don't exist.

Like everything else, the truth is somewhere in the middle. Thousands of people use the superchargers to travel hundreds of miles everyday. There have been multiple cross country trips in the Model S. The current record for the least amount of charging time during a cross country trip was done using the superchargers using Autopilot for 90% of the journey.

There also have been clogged superchargers in California during holiday weekends. The solution is to build more superchargers, more stalls per supercharger, and update the software to give real time updates on supercharger traffic (which Musk said is going to happen).

 

[Bboy AJ]

Not sure what's worse, the people harping on the shortcomings or the folks that think they don't exist.

I don't think anyone is saying they don't exist. They existed with horses. A horse won't crash into a tree. A dumb phone lasts longer and is sturdier than a smartphone.

But the better product for most people is clear.

 

[PG2G]

There also have been clogged superchargers in California during holiday weekends. The solution is to build more superchargers, more stalls per supercharger, and update the software to give real time updates on supercharger traffic (which Musk said is going to happen).

Those sound like reasonable solutions. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. I'm planning to hop on board in the next few years, hopefully the infrastructure scales well enough that I can.

 

[AstroNut325]

Are people taking cross country trips every month? I would assume most families own two cars. One for each adult. Why can't one car be a commuter car? A 100 mile range would be more than sufficient for vast majority of people. If commuting is 99% of your driving, that should be the biggest determining factor for a car purchase.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

What they really need to do is make some money. I don't get how they are going to make money on the Model 3. They lose almost 20k for each Model S they sell.

This is wrong. They make a positive margin on every Model S they sell. However their capital expenditures are staggering. There's a reason you can't just start a car company. The sheer amount of capital needed to establish the infrastructure to sell the first car is literally billions of dollars. Tesla has been doing years of R&D in addition to retrofitting the old NUMMI plant in Fremont, building the Gigafactory, and building out the Supercharger network. Conservative estimates currently put the amount of capital that Tesla will burn before the first Model 3 rolls out of the Fremont factory at $5.4 billion and that will certainly be a lowball figure by the time it really happens. Even with $120 billion banked, Apple isn't exactly rushing to announce the Apple Car because you don't just decide to piss away billions.

Tesla has spent the money the major worldwide car manufacturers have refused to because GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler, Toyota, Nissan, BMW, Audi, Volkswagen, Tata, Hyundai, Kia, etc. just didn't want to spend the billions for something there was uncertain demand for. The Model 3's preorders have proven there is demand, but then you realize that over 17 million cars were sold in the United States and 75 million worldwide in 2015 and suddenly the 300,000 preorders for Model 3 become the drop in the bucket that they truly are. The worldwide automobile industry is absolutely massive, and trying to suddenly turn it around from ICEs to EVs is like trying to make an oil tanker do a three-point turn in the English Channel. Tesla is a hugely disruptive company but the world's automakers still need to seriously invest in EVs before the world's 7 billion humans will start driving them en-masse. Every dollar Tesla loses on the way to the Model 3 is in the service of humanity, because there's only a finite amount of oil in the ground and the Earth will only tolerate so much CO2 spewing into the atmosphere before the climate changes to one uninhabitable by humans. So no, Tesla doesn't need to start making money anytime soon.

 

[iamblades]

This is wrong. They make a positive margin on every Model S they sell. However their capital expenditures are staggering. There's a reason you can't just start a car company. The sheer amount of capital needed to establish the infrastructure to sell the first car is literally billions of dollars.

^^

They are losing money because they are investing billions in their gigafactory, and expanding their networks of dealerships service stations and superchargers.

They don't sell nearly enough volume of the Model S to outpace those infrastructure costs no matter how much the margin is. Actually when you consider the scale of those costs and the volume they are currently selling, it is a miracle that they are losing so little money(and that that sum is decreasing quarter over quarter), and it suggests that their margins on their current vehicles is pretty sizable in reality.

I am sure they fully intend to make a profit on the Model 3, and it is reasonable to expect they will be able to under ideal situations, the question is whether they will be able to meet the volume demands without lowering quality standards or whether the increased demand will cause a spike in some raw material or component that eats away their margins.

 

[BlastProcessing]

What they really need to do is make some money. I don't get how they are going to make money on the Model 3. They lose almost 20k for each Model S they sell.

They'll make it up in volume!

The serious answer is that they are following the Amazon playbook and dumping all of their cash into growing infrastructure and new products. The idea is that you pace yourselves far ahead of the more conservative competition. Tesla's battery factory and the Supercharger network are huge bets for them. For it all to work, you have to get shareholders to buy in to the vision. Amazon was super successful at that, will be interesting to see if Tesla can pull it off.

 

[captive]

Not sure what's worse, the people harping on the shortcomings or the folks that think they don't exist.

you got that wrong for sure.

I have no problem with people being skeptical of Tesla or maybe wanted a 300 mile range or not liking the aesthetics of the cars they make, or thinking that maybe they're overpriced (i'd have a pre-order for an X right now if it was cheaper, having a hard time convincing the wife) or any number of perfectly reasonable concerns.

My problem is people coming in hear talking smack about shit they dont anything about.

Every fucking day we have some jackass coming in here saying they lose money on the Model S, which at this point has been debunked so many times that its just FUD.

 

[AstroNut325]

This is wrong. They make a positive margin on every Model S they sell. However their capital expenditures are staggering. There's a reason you can't just start a car company. The sheer amount of capital needed to establish the infrastructure to sell the first car is literally billions of dollars. Tesla has been doing years of R&D in addition to retrofitting the old NUMMI plant in Fremont, building the Gigafactory, and building out the Supercharger network. Conservative estimates currently put the amount of capital that Tesla will burn before the first Model 3 rolls out of the Fremont factory at $5.4 billion and that will certainly be a lowball figure by the time it really happens. Even with $120 billion banked, Apple isn't exactly rushing to announce the Apple Car because you don't just decide to piss away billions.

Tesla has spent the money the major worldwide car manufacturers have refused to because GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler, Toyota, Nissan, BMW, Audi, Volkswagen, Tata, Hyundai, Kia, etc. just didn't want to spend the billions for something there was uncertain demand for. The Model 3's preorders have proven there is demand, but then you realize that over 17 million cars were sold in the United States and 75 million worldwide in 2015 and suddenly the 300,000 preorders for Model 3 become the drop in the bucket that they truly are. The worldwide automobile industry is absolutely massive, and trying to suddenly turn it around from ICEs to EVs is like trying to make an oil tanker do a three-point turn in the English Channel. Tesla is a hugely disruptive company but the world's automakers still need to seriously invest in EVs before the world's 7 billion humans will start driving them en-masse. Every dollar Tesla loses on the way to the Model 3 is in the service of humanity, because there's only a finite amount of oil in the ground and the Earth will only tolerate so much CO2 spewing into the atmosphere before the climate changes to one uninhabitable by humans. So no, Tesla doesn't need to start making money anytime soon.

Thank you. This cannot be stated enough. Elon should be cheered. He is truly bringing a massive disruption to the automobile industry and people try to dismiss him without any second thought. I don't think I've seen anyone else try to take on the big auto makers in my life. I hope Elon succeeds. We need to be more proactive with respect to climate change.

 

[Bboy AJ]

Tesla is not a car company. If you think selling cars is their biggest goal, you are short sighted.

 

[Auron_Kale]

If I wasn't about to be getting my Subaru in a few weeks, I'd have definitely put money down on a Model 3. It's perfect for my needs as my commute is solely from my home to BART and back, with a few stops here and there for errands. There are also various charging stations at both Whole Foods and Panera Bread as well as the nearby Tesla dealership.

My aunt, who currently drives a BMW 5 series, is also very interested in possibly owning a Model 3 as she hates dealing with the maintenance for her car. As someone who isn't too tech savvy, she understands not only the need to move away from using gas but also how convenient having an electric car is for someone who doesn't do too much driving. Though she's in a "wait and see" mode, it's nice to see that she's highly considering it because it fits into her current lifestyle.

 

[hateradio]

This car will be the push for me to finally own my own place -- how else am I going to charge it?


Reminds me of this.

1. I need the car
2. I need to charge the car
3. I need a place to charge the car
4. So now I have to buy a place to put a charger
5. Now I have to buy a damn charger ($2k?)
6. Now I have to make sure that my house has (electric) fire insurance in case of faulty wiring
7. So I have to get it professionally installed and do some maintenance
8. Now I'm way under $500K in the hole because of LA prices
9. And I'll need the autopilot DLC to navigate through this hellhole

Damn you Tesla!

 

[Bboy AJ]

.@elonmusk: @Christiano92 @Inspron @Jerry22499879 won't be a hatchback, but we should be able to increase the opening width and height

 

[PG2G]

This car will be the push for me to finally own my own place -- how else am I going to charge it?


Reminds me of this.

1. I need the car
2. I need to charge the car
3. I need a place to charge the car
4. So now I have to buy a place to put a charger
5. Now I have to buy a damn charger ($2k?)
6. Now I have to make sure that my house has (electric) fire insurance in case of faulty wiring
7. So I have to get it professionally installed and do some maintenance
8. Now I'm way under $500K in the hole because of LA prices
9. And I'll need the autopilot DLC to navigate through this hellhole

Damn you Tesla!

Don't forget to add solar panels to said place

 

[mcfrank]

If you can charge at work and at home and stick to using the super chargers on road trips that is certainly ideal. Putting a charger in at home is not a big deal, it is the same as putting an outlet for a dryer in your garage. That shouldn't cost 2k unless you seriously need to upgrade you electrical panel.

 

[belvedere]

Say you reserve a Model 3 today, what are the odds of it being delivered in 2018?

 

[nomster]

Say you reserve a Model 3 today, what are the odds of it being delivered in 2018?

In all likelihood based on track record, probably not great. Hope I'm wrong

 

[belvedere]

In all likelihood based on track record, probably not great. Hope I'm wrong

I'm feeling the same, but I can't decide if that's because of slow production due to demand, or Tesla's history of launching late.

 

[Charlatan]

I don't know what the odds are of getting a Model 3 in 2018 are, but I do believe that you'll get one sooner if you reserve as opposed to not reserving.

 

[AstroNut325]

By the time I place my reserve order, I'm expecting a 2019 model.

 

[Shao Kahn Brewing a Stew]

By the time I place my reserve order, I'm expecting a 2019 model.

Here's hoping that if you don't meet the reservation timeline, you get whatever newer model they're working on.

 

[Sigma722]

Guys, keep in mind that Elon was able to start his reveal for the model 3 within 5 minutes of when he was supposed to. That has to mean the 3 will be mostly on time.

 

[Deleted member 80556]

Don't forget to add solar panels to said place

And Tesla Powerwall. Might as well go all the way in!

 

[LevelNth]

With the timing window of likely getting this in 2019 or 2020 this is definitely going to be my next car purchase.

 

[McLovin]

As soon as I'm done paying my car I'm going to start saving. Can't wait to ditch gasoline. Plus by the time I'm ready to buy they will be at least a generation in.

 

[Draper]

As soon as I'm done paying my car I'm going to start saving. Can't wait to ditch gasoline. Plus by the time I'm ready to buy they will be at least a generation in.

Im trying to figure out what the best way is to set money aside. CD? Mutual Fund?

 

[mcfrank]

Im trying to figure out what the best way is to set money aside. CD? Mutual Fund?

You probably dont want to invest it if you think you are going to need it short term - i.e. in 20 months. If you can find a one year CD, it would probably be better than savings but not by much. Mutual fund is a bad idea for money you need soon.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Im trying to figure out what the best way is to set money aside. CD? Mutual Fund?

The best method is to buy a lot of Tesla stock. By the time you buy your car, you will have made enough on the stock to pay for it in cash!

Spoiler

Don't do this.

 

[Jack Scofield]

For those who have already reserved a Model 3, how many of you live in apartments? Obviously a house would be easier for overnight charging, but I've been trying to work out how feasible an electric car would be for apartment dwellers such as myself.

 

[depths20XX]

Are those interior shots real? They just slapped an iPad in the center console? No gauges behind the wheel? Looks terrible and cheap.

 

[subrock]

For those who have already reserved a Model 3, how many of you live in apartments? Obviously a house would be easier for overnight charging, but I've been trying to work out how feasible an electric car would be for apartment dwellers such as myself.

I do. But I plan on moving to a more modern apartment where I can install a charger, or harangue the building owner for one. My town is pretty progressive, so I don't see it being a huge problem.

 

[Doodis]

Are those interior shots real? They just slapped an iPad in the center console? No gauges behind the wheel? Looks terrible and cheap.

Elon tweeted that this will make sense after part 2 of the Model 3 unveil. He also tweeted: Wait until you see the real steering controls and system for the 3. It feels like a spaceship.

We're not seeing the whole picture at this point.

 

[Beer Monkey]

For those who have already reserved a Model 3, how many of you live in apartments? Obviously a house would be easier for overnight charging, but I've been trying to work out how feasible an electric car would be for apartment dwellers such as myself.

Me. I'm moving into a house with a driveway because of the car.

 

[Shao Kahn Brewing a Stew]

If they start pumping out 3's at 500k a year any time soon, they'll have to double that doubling and triple that tripling to keep up. They have made around 120k model s's total so far and at least two dozen model x's. 3 is going to dwarf the others in no time.

My bet is you'll have to pay for supercharger access.

Also, note that the 500k a year is not inclusive to Model 3. They said most will be allotted to it. Let's see how well they maintain the projected cycle. I personally haven't seen most of the companies meet their production benchmark.

 

[GatorBait]

For those who have already reserved a Model 3, how many of you live in apartments? Obviously a house would be easier for overnight charging, but I've been trying to work out how feasible an electric car would be for apartment dwellers such as myself.

I live in an apartment now. I may or may not move into a home by the time I buy a Model 3. To tell you the truth, I'm not too worried about it. A lot can happen in 2-3 years; by then you may start seeing electric car charge being a much more widespread amenity at apartment complexes (depending on where you live).

 

[Shiv47]

I hope the Model 3 pans out as planned. I drive a Volt now and would love to be able to move to an affordable Tesla when I'm ready for a new car in three or four years.

 

[GalacticMouse]

For those who have already reserved a Model 3, how many of you live in apartments? Obviously a house would be easier for overnight charging, but I've been trying to work out how feasible an electric car would be for apartment dwellers such as myself.

I haven't reserved one, as I have some apprehension over being in the first year of deliveries on Tesla's first production of this scale.

That having been said, I live in an apartment but am lucky enough to have an EV charging station at work that I could use if I got one, so that's also an option for some people who have an EV charging station at or near their place of work.