Right. Again, here, we agree.
But to reiterate, in the maybe 5-10% of cases where the dysphoria is consistent, emphatic, debilitating, and lifelong, it's virtually unheard of for it to change. In those cases,
and only those cases, the risk of being wrong is near zero.
If someone transitions during adolescence, it's very unlikely you would ever know that they are trans. Every single person they meet will gender them correctly and intuitively without thinking and they will get to live "normal" lives. Unless you plan to have sex with them or have another reason to closely inspect their genitals, you would never know or have any reason to ask.
Even if you saw them naked you would probably never know if they had a good surgeon you might not even know then. I heard a story about a trans woman who married a gynecologist and he didn't know.
See this woman? No one questions her status as a woman or calls.jer a disfigured man. No one ever calls her sir. She doesn't get discriminated against applying for a job. She can date straight men without issue. Because she got to start hormones at 14 and have a female puberty. She's spared from a life of pain and difficulty chasing the dragon of "passing" because her parents had that clarity of judgement to know their kid was stuck with this dysphoria.