The South Carolina Primary & Nevada Caucuses |Feb 20, 23, 27| Continuing The Calm

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These college kids on CNN right now are just making me furious.

"Bernie Sanders has never changed his mind on anything. Changing your mind is a sign of weakness in a leader."

That really shouldn't make you furious. You shake your head and say 'youth'.

Ah yes, my fellow college-aged students engaging in the political discourse... bit cringe worthy when it's on national television.

But, I'm glad people my age are involved.

Agreed. I liked that segment, surprisingly.
 
Yep. Hillary looks like she will get a comfortable victory today and Sanders really needed to do better. Clinton is going to be in cruise control for the next couple of weeks.

Yeah, this is very bad momentum for him and evaporates whatever he had coming out of New Hampshire (which was a lot!)

This could be a 4-6% win for Hillary.
 
That really shouldn't make you furious. You shake your head and say 'youth'.

cZjoqMG.gif
 
It still isn't over until it's offically called. Bernie can come back. I don't Clark county has come in yet i think?

Clark County is 56-44 in favor of hillary, with 215/1022 precincts in, per the AP.

She's been leading there pretty much from the start and the gap has gotten wider, not smaller. He's finished if that trend keeps up.
 
That really shouldn't make you furious. You shake your head and say 'youth'.

I'm only a few years older than them. These are essentially my peers and the reason Bernie is doing so well. I really like Bernie, but when I hear so many of these supporters i'm like

not-like-this.gif
 
Clark County is 56-44 in favor of hillary, with 215/1022 precincts in, per the AP.

She's been leading there pretty much from the start and the gap has gotten wider, not smaller. He's finished if that trend keeps up.

That was also her best county in 2008, and the results look fairly similar to then (if a little better for Hillary), so I would expect her to continue to do well there. We don't know what precincts those are that have reported, but I would much rather be Hillary right now.
 
Hillary supporters can breath easily now. That path to the nomination gets easier from here.

Bernie really needed this to give his campaign momentum going into SC and beyond.
 
I'm only a few years older than them. These are essentially my peers and the reason Bernie is doing so well. I really like Bernie, but when I hear so many of these supporters i'm like

not-like-this.gif

I thought you might be a cohort of them by your post. As someone a decade older I just giggled at them all and thought of simpler times when I thought in a similar way (black and white, ideology trumps all).
 
I liked it. It reminded me of my college days. We were all so passionate and inarticulate.
Maybe that's why I don't like it...reminds me too much of myself, though I suppose I was worse than the students on CNN. I blossomed into a passionate moron much earlier in my life than college. High school for me, and I have becoming an atheist to thank for that. Luckily, it took one college professor my freshman year to make me realize how little I knew about anything---so I just cuddled myself into an introverted shell and have kept my mouth mostly shut since then
 
NATE SILVER 4:49 PM
I rigged up a really simple model, which extrapolates out the eventual Nevada result based on the results in each county so far. If you assume that turnout is proportional to what it was in 2008, Clinton would win statewide by 5 to 6 percentage points once all votes are counted, based mostly on her lead in Clark County.

There are obviously some major assumptions in there, however, including that the precincts to have reported so far in each county are representative of the whole county. If we uncover evidence that either Clinton or Sanders are overperforming in large, slow-to-count precincts, that could turn a modest Clinton win into a pretty big Clinton win — or into a Sanders win instead.

Winter is coming for Sanders
 
I like Hilary and Bernie, but does it bother anyone else when I see people say on here or out in the world stuff like "i'm voting for Hilary because she's the best candidate to win!" and so forth? God it makes me feel like she's the "best candidate for the job" to some people based solely on the fear of a republican getting in office. Like it could've been anyone in that role as long as they felt they were the majority pick for the democrats.

That is the part that troubles me. Bernie or Hilary I hope we are voting for the person who's best for the nation, not just a seat in musical chairs.
 
There was a tie at one precinct (in terms of delegates) and they had the official draw cards to determine which candidate got the final delegate.

The result really means very little in the long run. There are 1714 precincts in the state, and this just determined a single delegate at a single precinct. There are 12,000 delegates total for the state.

thanks. That sounds rather stupid to me though
 
Yeah, this is very bad momentum for him and evaporates whatever he had coming out of New Hampshire (which was a lot!)

This could be a 4-6% win for Hillary.

How is this a loss for Sanders. He was double digit down in polls a week or so ago. If anything it's a massive win if he can stay within 2-3% of her.

If Hillary has difficultly putting Sanders behind her, imagine in November...
 
Maybe that's why I don't like it...reminds me too much of myself, though I suppose I was worse than the students on CNN. I blossomed into a passionate moron much earlier in my life than college. High school for me, and I have becoming an atheist to thank for that. Luckily, it took one college professor my freshman year to make me realize how little I knew about anything---so I just cuddled myself into an introverted shell and have kept my mouth mostly shut since then

Boy, you went from one extreme to the other. Speak up, man. Don't fear being proven wrong.
 
I like Hilary and Bernie, but does it bother anyone else when I see people say on here or out in the world stuff like "i'm voting for Hilary because she's the best candidate to win!" and so forth? God it makes me feel like she's the "best candidate for the job" to some people based solely on the fear of a republican getting in office. Like it could've been anyone in that role as long as they felt they were the majority pick for the democrats.

That is the part that troubles me. Bernie or Hilary I hope we are voting for the person who's best for the nation, not just a seat in musical chairs.
My knee-jerk reaction is that it bothers me, and people who vote this way are making a poor decision. But then I think to myself...if you are someone who likes both candidates, and hate all GOP candidates then maybe it isn't so unwise to pick whoever you feel has the best shot at being out the GOP.
Boy, you went from one extreme to the other. Speak up, man. Don't fear being proven wrong.
I appreciate it. I'm not as bad as I make myself seem...but I might have a problem in that I'm so afraid of coming off arrogant in discussions that I mostly keep my mouth shut and listen. At least I have GAF---I'm a lot more open here.
 
I really think this was a necessary win for Sanders to not go into Super Tuesday losing 3 of the 4 early contests. He's going to get routed on March 1st, and needed some cushion.

I agree. If Sanders ends up losing Nevada, and it looks like he might, I'm going to get on the Hillary camp and just accept the inevitable. Fun while it lasted but I got to be a realist here.
 
My knee-jerk reaction is that it bothers me, and people who vote this way are making a poor decision. But then I think to myself...if you are someone who likes both candidates, and hate all GOP candidates then maybe it isn't so unwise to pick whoever you feel has the best shot at being out the GOP.

Don't get me wrong, I definitely don't want anyone from the GOP to win. I dread that immensely. I just feel very vexed thinking we might be doing it simply for that not to happen. I'd always want us as democrats to make sure we're doing ourselves a favor long term and not just short term.
 
Clinton winning with that casinos, gamblers loved her winning those coin tosses
/s
 
How is this a loss for Sanders. He was double digit down in polls a week or so ago. If anything it's a massive win if he can stay within 2-3% of her.

The narrative out of new hampshire was that bernie was closing the gap on clinton, and nevada was a dead heat. there were several recent polls that showed them at a tie there, though nevada is hard to poll for a lot of reasons.

If it isn't and he loses by 6 points, that momentum stops dead in its tracks, and the narrative goes right back to "bernie sanders can't win minorities."

he will then goes on to get obliterated in south carolina by 30 points, and lose 80% of the super tuesday states by big margins.

he really, REALLY needed a win, tie, or close loss to prevent that from happening.
 
My knee-jerk reaction is that it bothers me, and people who vote this way are making a poor decision. But then I think to myself...if you are someone who likes both candidates, and hate all GOP candidates then maybe it isn't so unwise to pick whoever you feel has the best shot at being out the GOP.

I can speak for a lot of foreigners I think when I say Republicans are generally seen as well insane. As such we would prefer a democratic president as they aren't seen in such a negative light. So any democratic choice is better than any republican choice.
 
Why are the SC polls are 2 different days?
Nevada and SC have a thing set up where it's N-D/S-R, then later it's N-R/S-D.
I can speak for a lot of foreigners I think when I say Republicans are generally seen as well insane. As such we would prefer a democratic president as they aren't seen in such a negative light. So any democratic choice is better than any republican choice.
Trump reminds me of Achmenijad.
 
How is this a loss for Sanders. He was double digit down in polls a week or so ago. If anything it's a massive win if he can stay within 2-3% of her.

If Hillary has difficultly putting Sanders behind her, imagine in November...

Did Gore or Bush win in 2000?
If you want to give Sanders a participation award, give him a participation award. At the end of the day, Sanders is going to actually have to win states to have a path towards the Democratic nomination. Yes he won New Hampshire and he'll win Vermont, but that's not good enough.
 
The narrative out of new hampshire was that bernie was closing the gap on clinton, and nevada was a dead heat. there were several recent polls that showed them at a tie there, though nevada is hard to poll for a lot of reasons.

If it isn't and he loses by 6 points, that momentum stops dead in its tracks, and the narrative goes right back to "bernie sanders can't win minorities."

he will then goes on to get obliterated in south carolina by 30 points, and lose 80% of the super tuesday states by big margins.

he really, REALLY needed a win, tie, or close loss to prevent that from happening.

I might not get to do my debate thread, you would have loved it.

Trump would be Turner D. Century
 
I appreciate it. I'm not as bad as I make myself seem...but I might have a problem in that I'm so afraid of coming off arrogant in discussions that I mostly keep my mouth shut and listen. At least I have GAF---I'm a lot more open here.

Ah. I think I know what feeling you are talking about. I've sometimes wondered if being articulate has come off as arrogant in my conversations before, and it probably does, so I feel you.
 
I like Hilary and Bernie, but does it bother anyone else when I see people say on here or out in the world stuff like "i'm voting for Hilary because she's the best candidate to win!" and so forth? God it makes me feel like she's the "best candidate for the job" to some people based solely on the fear of a republican getting in office. Like it could've been anyone in that role as long as they felt they were the majority pick for the democrats.

That is the part that troubles me. Bernie or Hilary I hope we are voting for the person who's best for the nation, not just a seat in musical chairs.

These two things are not mutually exclusive. Unfortunately, your nation is in a poltiical state where the anyone but a republican thing is true.
 
How is this a loss for Sanders. He was double digit down in polls a week or so ago. If anything it's a massive win if he can stay within 2-3% of her.

If Hillary has difficultly putting Sanders behind her, imagine in November...

I think we're past the point of "Well, I won because I didn't lose by much" with Bernie. It felt, to me, that a lot of that was hinged on Bernie being able to significantly cut into her lead in SC, which would have kept things close even if she ultimately won those two races. But despite his efforts she still maintains a huge lead there. So if Hillary fends him off in Nevada, then that bodes well for her crushing him in SC, then we get to Super Tuesday and...well...
 
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