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[phisheep]

So the SNP could also act as a massive spanner in the works, possibly holding back consent to the triggering of Article 50, possibly in exchange for say, agreeing to IndyRef2?

Yes, exactly. Except of course for all the blather the SNP doesn't actually want independence now, with the price of oil and all. So the price will be something else.

The EU has the following going for them :

1. Pursuing legal means to force the UK to trigger it (such as saying the act of the referendum passing itself was a trigger), or even the wording -'shall'- in the paragraph regarding triggering, they may argue, means it is an obligation on the UK to trigger it. This radio silence the UK is engaged in would be a breach.
2. London pushing for the government to trigger it, to minimise the amount of business that is being lost daily.
3. The longer the UK waits, the worse of the deal will be and the more swift the EU has to be in how they deal with UK during negotiations. Now more than ever the EU has to show its force.

1. Won't work. The referendum is not a trigger because it is not binding. The word "shall" comes in the phrase "A Member State which decides to withdraw shall ..." and the UK has not yet, not legally, decided to withdraw.
2. London knows damn well, or should know, that there are precursor negotiations to be had as I have outlined. If it is saying otherwise it is distorting the truth.
3. I don't see that this follows from anything. The better prepared we are the better the deal we can negotiate.

Oh god. Constitutional crisis does not even begin to put a finger on it. The other sad thing is that the civil service and machinery of government is going to be stalled for years on this thing and it's many ramifications while other needed reforms and legislation for the day to day running of this country are put on the back burner.

Just sheer madness.

I don't know if you were around the campaign thread at the time, but exactly this was my biggest concern about the whole Brexit thing.

Didn't like three quarters of people aged <24 vote against Brexit? And more than the half of people aged 25-49 voted against as well, I think. Older generations potentially screwed them over, which is very sad. The aftermath will affect the people (aged <50) that voted against more, as they are building their careers, studying, still have a long while to go on the jobmarket etc. For their sake, I hope this situation stabilizes well soon.

I'm getting pretty cross with this analysis being waved around. I am pushing 60 and voted Remain.

Voting Leave also correlates very highly with lower education, poverty and access to information. And guess what, many old people have less education - many of them left school at 14 to go get work, many old people are poor, many have had no meaningful access to information about the referendum other than Leave leaflets, with no rebuttal from Remain. Don't blame the old people, blame the campaigns for not reaching out to them.

I meet a lot of old people in my business, I talked politics to lots of them and changed the minds of many - and often nobody else had bothered to have a serious conversation with them about it.

Instead blame the youngsters who had all the information and didn't turn out. If you must blame somebody.

You shouldn't really say you're going to have pie tonight unless you've know what the recipe is.

And you shouldn't demand pie the instant I announce that I am going to make some! Sit down and have a biscuit if you are hungry.

 

[-Plasma Reus-]

Compare the world image of Britain just 4 days ago, with what you have today.

When people's money is at stake, things get real.

 

[dealer-]

Surprised it's not higher tbh.

 

[Bold One]

https://t.co/8iJzH71ICj

Comres poll indicating leavers are happy.

wait till they find out all the things Leave promised were nought but fairy dust

 

[Oriel]

Interesting to see how this goes. If I were the leader of the SNP I would secure some very lucrative terms for that consent. A new referendum with guarantees from Westminster about shared Sterling access for starters.

Apparently Sturgeon is seeking from Westminster a transfer of power to Holyrood the ability to run legally binding polls any time her and the SNP feel like it. I can't imagine any future PM will give in to this demand, even for the Scots signing off on an Article 50 Declaration to the Council. We might instead be heading towards a constitutional crisis where Parliament in London decides just to ignore the views of the devolved governments and proceeds alone.

 

[trembli0s]

I find it somewhat rich that the bankers are the ones engaged in fomenting the most panic after they fucked the lower classes for the better part of the last two decades. It's like they thought labor voters would just allow them to piss on their faces and never expect any blowback.

 

[jakonovski]

I mean, it would really be pretty easy to say that. You just did!

Here's the question: what if the EU did just come out and say "we consider that the UK has invoked article 50 and it's all downhill from here?" What, exactly, would anybody do about it? Send Farage to Parliament to complain that he doesn't want to leave yet?

Yeah, this is the thing to do. Just come out and say that EU recognises the UK's wish to leave, here's the paperwork now sign please.

The Leave camp will utterly discredit itself if they start offering excuses as to why it can't be done.

 

[Napoleonthechimp]

From Twitter a leave voter responds to me mentioning the downsides to what's going on:

"You ever stop to think, A lot of Leave just don't care any-more? Me being one..."

My response:

"Of course you don't fucking care. It's the only way you can fuck over half the country and keep on smiling."

 

[Mr.Mike]

The EU may want us out but it's in the UK interest to be in a position to negotiate before we notify Brussels we wish to leave. Initiating article 50 will put the EU in a stronger negotiating position due to the 2 year time period, we should bide our time and get the best deal we can.

The uncertainty will hurt the UK, and global, economy regardless of what ultimately gets negotiated. There is a large cost to biding your time, and if anything it'll deteriorate the UK's negotiating position as their economy gets weaker and weaker.

 

[1.21Gigawatts]

The EU wanting (but unable) for us to get on with leaving as soon as possible, and us taking our sweet old time about it could very well be the sweetest irony.

It doesn't work like that.
Businesses hate uncertainty, they can't deal with it, they will leave GB in droves.
It should be in GBs best interest to create certainty ASAP.

 

[Alx]

The EU may want us out but it's in the UK interest to be in a position to negotiate before we notify Brussels we wish to leave. Initiating article 50 will put the EU in a stronger negotiating position due to the 2 year time period, we should bide our time and get the best deal we can.

I don't think there's much to gain on negociations by waiting to trigger article 50. I can see how you need some time to find the right people to negociate, since apparently the UK has been short of such experts, but once your team is ready it should go to work ASAP. Your position isn't going to get stronger with time, considering it's already decided you're leaving (assuming you're really leaving of course).

 

[Rodelero]

I'm getting pretty cross with this analysis being waved around. I am pushing 60 and voted Remain.

Voting Leave also correlates very highly with lower education, poverty and access to information. And guess what, many old people have less education - many of them left school at 14 to go get work, many old people are poor, many have had no meaningful access to information about the referendum other than Leave leaflets, with no rebuttal from Remain. Don't blame the old people, blame the campaigns for not reaching out to them.

I meet a lot of old people in my business, I talked politics to lots of them and changed the minds of many - and often nobody else had bothered to have a serious conversation with them about it.

Instead blame the youngsters who had all the information and didn't turn out. If you must blame somebody.

So to be clear, the young had "all the information", and the old only had information from Leave? Mkay.

 

[Bedlam]

The EU may want us out but it's in the UK interest to be in a position to negotiate before we notify Brussels we wish to leave. Initiating article 50 will put the EU in a stronger negotiating position due to the 2 year time period, we should bide our time and get the best deal we can.

Again: this period can be extended as necessary. This is about having clarity and starting the negotiations.

 

[Palette Swap]

The EU may want us out but it's in the UK interest to be in a position to negotiate before we notify Brussels we wish to leave. Initiating article 50 will put the EU in a stronger negotiating position due to the 2 year time period, we should bide our time and get the best deal we can.

You do realize that meanwhile, while you guys try to figure out what the actual first step should be, businesses will assume the worst and will start holding off further investments or relocate elsewhere? Hell, some are already starting to, because they couldn't afford the luxury of not having a practical plan B.

The uncertainty is definitely not a good thing for the UK or anyone.

 

[avaya]

I don't know if you were around the campaign thread at the time, but exactly this was my biggest concern about the whole Brexit thing.

This is only just dawning on me to be honest, I never though we would actually leave. From conversations at work a lot of people think the Government is actually in full on panic mode.

 

[Audioboxer]

Well 60% is my absolute ceiling for a YES vote. Don't think it will be that high though. More like a swap of the 55-45 from before.

Those unhappy can move down South to be near the Queen, and we'll take the unhappy English up North. Fair swap I think.

 

[PJV3]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-brexit-resignation-david-cameron-reportedly-asks-aides-why-should-i-do-the-hard-st-a7102431.html

If only Cameron had said it at the lectern.
"Why should I do the hard shit?"

 

[Bashtee]

Read a few comments from german politicans. They really want the UK to not stall this any further and GTFO.

I don't really understand Cameron. Whenever I saw him on the news, he was against the decisions of the EU and was constantly threatining with the referendum. Then he pulled it off and tried to let the EU Look great again. Of course, that is just what I saw.

It was always going to be a pork pie. The issue is that they don't know how to not fuck it.

Hahaha, nice one.

 

[Coriolanus]

So to be clear, the young had "all the information", and the old only had information from Leave? Mkay.

It isn't exactly an unfair argument, given that the young are far more likely to be internet-savvy.

 

[Corto]

What is the mechanism for kicking a country out of the union?

Making it preferable for the Country to trigger article 50 than to keep its EU member status.

 

[mangochutney]

I think the EU wanting to rush proceedings is to prevent other countries getting the jitters and wanting to jump ship before the UK formally requests to leave.

 

[Miles Quaritch]

If I didn't laugh I would cry. It's just a joke (I didn't make) to lighten the mood of the past few days.

Apologies if it annoyed you.

I wouldn't worry, gallows humour is always fun.

 

[Joni]

I'm not sure you understand what I'm saying? Proper reform, Its quite possible that our leave vote (possibly) lights a fire in other countries and theres a populist uprising for them to also leave

Only then will they sit down and try to make a modern/open/truly democratic EU

Edit I also forget to say they're forecasting it will be at least 10yrs before we properly emerge from this hole (if we leave)

I understood quite well. I'm saying that Europe will pass reforms without any input from the United Kingdom and not use it to entice them to stay.

I think the EU wanting to rush proceedings is to prevent other countries getting the jitters and wanting to jump ship before the UK formally requests to leave.

Any potential leavers would want to see what happens first.

 

[axisofweevils]

I think the EU wanting to rush proceedings is to prevent other countries getting the jitters and wanting to jump ship before the UK formally requests to leave.

Finland is wanting a Fexit now. https://twitter.com/V_of_Europe/status/746809239298015232

 

[phisheep]

I mean, it would really be pretty easy to say that. You just did!

Here's the question: what if the EU did just come out and say "we consider that the UK has invoked article 50 and it's all downhill from here?" What, exactly, would anybody do about it? Send Farage to Parliament to complain that he doesn't want to leave yet?

What would happen is we'd challenge that decision in the ECJ. And we'd win in the ECJ - it is a sensible court.

And because it takes the ECJ so long to get around to hearing cases, that would buy us an extra 3-4 years negotiating time.

Bring it on!

 

[nature boy]

Well 60% is my absolute ceiling for a YES vote. Don't think it will be that high though. More like a swap of the 55-45 from before.

Those unhappy can move down South to be near the Queen, and we'll take the unhappy English up North. Fair swap I think.

I would die laughing if Parliament required 60% for independence.

 

[Kadayi]

As I replied elsewhere, I should have gone with the word 'legacy'. He won't be the worst PM in modern history...by ensuring his successor is instead. He can just say he offered a choice; his successor pulled the trigger.

I honestly don't think it will play out that way. The pressures from both camps and the world at large are too high for Cameron to hold out any hope of passing the buck four months on. Worst comes to the worst, the conservatives will oust him through a vote of no confidence, appoint an interim caretaker leader to set things in motion and then have a proper leadership contest afterwards.

 

[kharma45]

Finland is wanting a Fexit now. https://twitter.com/V_of_Europe/status/746809239298015232

They might want to... Finnish with the EU

 

[SymbiantXenos]

Well 60% is my absolute ceiling for a YES vote. Don't think it will be that high though. More like a swap of the 55-45 from before.

Those unhappy can move down South to be near the Queen, and we'll take the unhappy English up North. Fair swap I think.

I'll live in a spare room if you've got one.

 

[jakonovski]

I think the EU wanting to rush proceedings is to prevent other countries getting the jitters and wanting to jump ship before the UK formally requests to leave.

On the contrary, everyone wants to see what happens to the UK before doing anything. They're a crash test dummy now.

 

[Audioboxer]

I would die laughing if Parliament required 60% for independence.

If they did we'd wheel out Salmond to charm the knickers off the grannies.

I'll live in a spare room if you've got one.

You can stay with me. I need some more token English friends for when I diss the English football team. Need to be able to say, but I've got an English friend.

 

[pigeon]

Apparently Sturgeon is seeking from Westminster a transfer of power to Holyrood the ability to run legally binding polls any time her and the SNP feel like it. I can't imagine any future PM will give in to this demand, even for the Scots signing off on an Article 50 Declaration to the Council. We might instead be heading towards a constitutional crisis where Parliament in London decides just to ignore the views of the devolved governments and proceeds alone.

This brings up the opposite question. Article 50 says that deciding to leave has to happen according to the country's constitution. What if Whitehall tells the EU that they're leaving and the EU says "actually your constitution says that Holyrood has to sign off, so you haven't really decided to leave?"

Obviously this is much less likely to happen since the EU's current position is "get out though", but I think the relevant point is that article 50 is not really functional law. Anything goes at this point!

 

[Deaf Spacker]

Tata Steel Bidders Get Cold Feet Over Brexit.

Here we go...

 

[kirblar]

Read a few comments from german politicans. They really want the UK to not stall this any further and GTFO.

I don't really understand Cameron. Whenever I saw him on the news, he was against the decisions of the EU and was constantly threatining with the referendum. Then he pulled it off and tried to let the EU Look great again. Of course, that is just what I saw.
Hahaha, nice one.

Boehner did the same thing w/ various stunts threatening not to raise the debt ceiling and such.

He never actually followed through, because he knew what happened if he didn't. But it freaked out markets all the same, for the same reason this is.

 

[chancellor]

Surprised it's not higher tbh.

40% of Scotland voted leave, why would they want a yes vote to rejoin the institution they voted to leave? 59% percent means just a small number of remain voters are not yes voters.

 

[avaya]

On the contrary, everyone wants to see what happens to the UK before doing anything. They're a crash test dummy now.

In a chinese car.

 

[Lucumo]

Finland is wanting a Fexit now. https://twitter.com/V_of_Europe/status/746809239298015232

Petitions are dumb because they don't verify your identity. Honestly, 100 people could create 10000 votes in a day.

 

[CrunchyB]

I find it somewhat rich that the bankers are the ones engaged in fomenting the most panic after they fucked the lower classes for the better part of the last two decades. It's like they thought labor voters would just allow them to piss on their faces and never expect any blowback.

I'm getting the impression that to Leave vote can also be interpreted as a protest vote against London and the people who have been ruling the UK post WW2.

Because of the FPTP system this is the only way many could make their voices heard.

 

[phisheep]

So to be clear, the young had "all the information", and the old only had information from Leave? Mkay.

Some of them, sure. About half of the ones I talked to. The sort who only ever read stuff that drops through the letterbox and don't watch the news programs.

Since so much of both campaigns was pushed through TV and social media yes, the young had much more access to information.

 

[Bedlam]

Finland is wanting a Fexit now. https://twitter.com/V_of_Europe/status/746809239298015232

That's not Finland.

 

[nature boy]

I think the EU wanting to rush proceedings is to prevent other countries getting the jitters and wanting to jump ship before the UK formally requests to leave.

More like 2 trillion dollars were wiped off world markets, get movin' ASAP.

 

[Ravensmash]

You do realize that only facilitates companies leaving and Investments being cancelled or postponed?

Yes.

I want it to be done as soon as possible, and I'm a Remain voter.

Just an observation, considering how a lot of the campaign was spent painting the EU as this all powerful demagogue.

 

[Audioboxer]

40% of Scotland voted leave, why would they want a yes vote to rejoin the institution they voted to leave? 59% percent means just a small number of remain voters are not yes voters.

Yeah 59% would actually be really good considering we polled at 62% remain. That 62% just looked amazing as it captured the whole country and every location.

 

[mangochutney]

On the contrary, everyone wants to see what happens to the UK before doing anything. They're a crash test dummy now.

But if they jump ship now, then they'll be part of a group with the UK wanting to negotiate.

They then hold more of a position of power.

 

[Rodelero]

It isn't exactly an unfair argument, given that the young are far more likely to be internet-savvy.

Perhaps I'm extremely out of touch. Are old people incapable of using newspapers, radios, and televisions as well as computers and phones? I find this notion that elderly people were, through not fault of their own, misinformed fairly absurd and quite patronising. There's no excuse, whether you're young or old, to vote on something like this without having a clue what you're voting for.

The sorry thing about the majority of Leave voters, in my experience, is that they have no idea what they've voted for. They know we'll no longer be part of the EU, but I can't help but feel these people will feel cheated when they're being ruled by a ruthlessly right wing Tory government (compared to the current one) that will, quite likely, accept a deal which includes free movement in the EU.

 

[Pandy]

Yes, exactly. Except of course for all the blather the SNP doesn't actually want independence now, with the price of oil and all. So the price will be something else.

You have literally no idea what you are talking about.

 

[jakonovski]

That's not Finland.

And in the margins within the party as well.

 

[jakonovski]

But if they jump ship now, then they'll be part of a group with the UK wanting to negotiate.

They then hold more of a position of power.

Not gonna happen. But I guess we don't have to argue since it's all happening right now and in the near future.

 

[trembli0s]

I'm getting the impression that to Leave vote can also be interpreted as a protest vote against London and the people who have been ruling the UK post WW2.

Because of the FPTP system this is the only way many could make their voices heard.

That's exactly my impression. Both parties were more interested in the ancillary benefits of cutting taxes for banks and massive corporations while they cut social benefits, all in the name of efficiency and increased gains.

Of course, none of the benefits ever went down the chain to those who suffered from the cuts. So now, those folks have turned around and poked them straight in the eye. Why should they care that London will suffer? What's more suffering to those people? Especially now that they get to watch the upper classes squirm in discontent.

 

[mehrmantrout]

Tata Steel Bidders Get Cold Feet Over Brexit.

Here we go...

What foreign company will invest in the UK without knowing what there import/export costs and Visa requirements will be in 2yrs time?

If they buy it for a £1 it may happen but anymore than that no chance