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The UK votes to leave the European Union

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CrunchyB

Member
Given that only works out to about 67% percent turnout across all brackets, as opposed to the 72% declared overall turnout, I'd have to say it's just based on polling data.

Those brackets aren't necessarily equal, e.g. there are more people in the 25-34 group than the 18-24 group.

You'd have to weigh them in order to compute the total turnout.
 

geordiemp

Member
Insight into Merkel's plans (note the date):



Techau is the director of Carnegie Europe, the European center of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Techau works on EU integration and foreign policy, transatlantic affairs, and German foreign and security policy.

As you can see this is not really about giving UK preferential 3rd country status, unless you think countries like Turkey are getting it too.

No surprise, who was saying next Tuesday ?

See you all in a couple of months.
 
The youth have been fucked over by this political system so much, is it any wonder that we don't get out there and vote?

It's like a vicious circle of over 65's being the only one's voting so they're the only demographic politicians pander to.

Full disclosure, I'm 23 and I did go out and vote.
 

SuperSah

Banned
Rest assured the EU has already drafted it's own decisions and is essentially going in this to show the UK the papers to sign or leave.

Maybe, yes. But in no way can the EU initiate this. They have to wait for whatever we do first.

So the people and papers claiming 'EU may force invoke Article 50' are purely talking out of their ass, because it's false and will only serve to scare the public.
 
Maybe, yes. But in no way can the EU initiate this. They have to wait for whatever we do first.

So the people and papers claiming 'EU may force invoke Article 50' are purely talking out of their ass, because it's false and will only serve to scare the public.

EU can state their conditions though (see already happening).


Insight into Merkel's plans (note the date):



Techau is the director of Carnegie Europe, the European center of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Techau works on EU integration and foreign policy, transatlantic affairs, and German foreign and security policy.

As you can see this is not really about giving UK preferential 3rd country status, unless you think countries like Turkey are getting it too.
in other words EU passport for financial services and banks -> bye bye
 

kmag

Member
If we leave the single market is the caveat being attached.
Which will be happening if you're not taking associate membership
There's really no mystery here unfettered eec access requires full or associate membership else there is literally no point in any countries eu membership
 

avaya

Member
in other words EU passport for financial services and banks -> bye bye

No, it would create such a huge black hole for the UK economy that they can't do it, it would be self defeating to push the UK into a structural recession.

London will lose a lot, but they won't remove the passport because the UK will bend over backwards to keep it no matter what the exiters say or do.
 

PJV3

Member
Insight into Merkel's plans (note the date):



Techau is the director of Carnegie Europe, the European center of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Techau works on EU integration and foreign policy, transatlantic affairs, and German foreign and security policy.

As you can see this is not really about giving UK preferential 3rd country status, unless you think countries like Turkey are getting it too.


Cool the country is nicely in debt and we just need to suffer a bit of dramatic economic fall out. That should be great for school places and quick Dr appointments.
 
No, it would create such a huge black hole for the UK economy that they can't do it, it would be self defeating to push the UK into a structural recession.

London will lose a lot, but they won't remove the passport because the UK will bend over backwards to keep it no matter what the exiters say or do.

Lol and the EU will allow a offshore tax haven that deals with all the EU money? Not a chance. Also merkel has a huge incentive not to allow UK retain its passport. The banking jobs will most likely move to frankfurt.
My reading of this is that if Merkel gets her way then Britain will remain an economic member of the EU with further concessions made.

special status-> not a member but a third country (similar to turkey) -> no financial passport
 

Putzweg

Member
Insight into Merkel's plans (note the date):



Techau is the director of Carnegie Europe, the European center of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Techau works on EU integration and foreign policy, transatlantic affairs, and German foreign and security policy.

As you can see this is not really about giving UK preferential 3rd country status, unless you think countries like Turkey are getting it too.

This is pretty much what I predicted yesterday. Brexit? Sure but it will mostly just be a formality because most components of the cooperation will be intact through treaties. Now ofc this lends the solution open to criticism but the agreements in the treaties and ofc any criticism of them will be much too complicated, practical and detailed for the purpose of making the leave- voters angry.
 

-Plasma Reus-

Service guarantees member status
No surprise, who was saying next Tuesday ?

See you all in a couple of months.

I don't think it's reliable stance, considering the amount of pressure Merkel is under from all sides (her own FM openly states the opposite, and is much more hostile). Consider also the fact that there is an election coming up for her. There is no reason for her to treat the UK favourably and suffer for it.We also don't know how she really feels, let alone what all the other members are feeling, who have openly been more critical.
 

kmag

Member
My reading of this is that if Merkel gets her way then Britain will remain an economic member of the EU with further concessions made.
There's not going to be any further concessions to the uk there's just not the goodwill to force it past the vetos and frankly again it would destroy the whole project because every cunt would be at it
 

avaya

Member
Lol and the EU will allow a offshore tax haven that deals with all the EU money? Not a chance.

special status-> not a member but a third country (similar to turkey) -> no financial passport

The tax haven status of the City and other fuckery will be removed either way. But I think you underestimate how much the UK government will bend over backwards to not lose the passport.
 

Mivey

Member
Who's going to stop them?
It's not about anything being allowed, it's just that before Westminster actually tells the EU that they want to leave, formally, nothing has happened. Also, the referendum itself has no legal importance by itself. It's really on the UK to actually get the process of leaving going. That Camerons strategy is to wait 3 months, before anything is done, kind of shows how scared they currently are. Doesn't exactly project strength for the coming negotiations.
 
This is pretty much what I predicted yesterday. Brexit? Sure but it will mostly just be a formality because most components of the cooperation will be intact through treaties. Now ofc this lends the solution open to criticism but the agreements in the treaties and ofc any criticism of them will be much too complicated, practical and detailed for the purpose of making the leave- voters angry.

they will get to know that freedom of movement is not off the table.
The tax haven status of the City and other fuckery will be removed either way. But I think you underestimate how much the UK government will bend over backwards to not lose the passport.
do you think USA will keep its financial hub in, say canada? not a chance no matter how much the canadian government bends over backwards. And who says that the tax haven status will be removed. the only way for London to survive is probably being an unregulated tax haven.
 

kmag

Member
The tax haven status of the City and other fuckery will be removed either way. But I think you underestimate how much the UK government will bend over backwards to not lose the passport.
That does literally mean the uk is incapable of actually negotiating any settlement because it's such an easy gun for the eu to pull as France and Germany (Paris and Frankfurt) stand to gain from pulling it
 

nOoblet16

Member
What are the reasons for the Welsh voting to leave? They were net beneficiaries.

A welsh guy on my FB said this:

For me it was more to do about the way the EU is ran, very undemocratic, most of the people who make the big decisions and the rules aren't voted in by anyone.
That was my main reason for voting out. Majority of people who move here from the EU are good hard working people... Wish more people who were born in the country were like that to be honest.

It's going to be a very long process but I reckon once we make our own rules that suit us (over some of the silly EU rules we have now) and keep the good EU rules we'll be grand Hopefully we'll have much more control over how things are run within the country rather than being dictated to by the unelected EU commissioners

I mean I get his heart is at the right place but he is wrong to assume that UK gets to make its own rules in any sort of trade deals with EU, if UK becomes Norway lite it'll just be in an even worse position.
 

trembli0s

Member
There's not going to be any further concessions to the uk there's just not the goodwill to force it past the vetos and frankly again it would destroy the whole project because every cunt would be at it

Frankly, if the economic response to Brexit is as dramatic across Europe as everyone was claiming, the EU members would be more interested in keeping to economic bits, which actually do benefit all the members as a whole, as compared to the political bits, which seem to become less popular every year.

My money is on Merkel getting her way, particularly when the French and Italians are dealing with their own dissident parties.
 

Rich!

Member
Turns out those so worried about their future couldn't be bothered to vote on it

1466885120745.jpg


36%, bravo

And yet people, even here in this thread, are still shifting the goalposts and making excuses for why they didn't vote.

They didn't vote. They have absolutely no right to complain.
 

Empty

Member
What are the reasons for the Welsh voting to leave? They were net beneficiaries.

the same reasons everywhere else did except for scotland and the major cities

the regional development funds were irrelevant as no-one really talked up the benefits of the eu. people either didn't realize how much they put in or just took it for granted and assumed we'd keep the money rolling even if we left, despite the governments appalling record at investing in deprived areas. oops.
 
It's not about anything being allowed, it's just that before Westminster actually tells the EU that they want to leave, formally, nothing has happened. Also, the referendum itself has no legal importance by itself. It's really on the UK to actually get the process of leaving going. That Camerons strategy is to wait 3 months, before anything is done, kind of shows how scared they currently are. Doesn't exactly project strength for the coming negotiations.

What stops the EU from saying, in case that the government invokes Art. 50 our position is this this and this..

The belgian chief negotiator will now probably start to talk to all european leaders to find some common terms anyways
 
But even in the very unlikely case that British politicians somehow have the guts to ignore the referendum, I don't think the EU will let UK be a member with the same conditions as before. I think it's goodbye to many benefits for the UK in either case. They fucked up too much already.
Too right. You can't cause this level of damage and chaos and expect to get away clean. The UK will suffer, regardless of what happens at this point. That much is certain.

radio 5 being critical of osbourne.

He has done a disappearing act. Did not get his own way and has simply gone to ground
His fate is intertwined with that of David Cameron. It's over for him.

I'm more interested to know where Theresa May is, since she's kept a low profile during the whole thing. Personally I suspect she's hiding in the shadows, quietly watching and waiting, biding her time. Once Boris and Gove commit seppuku, she'll play her hand and gun for the leadership.
 

Bulbasaur

Banned
Let's how quick Scotland shuts the fuck up when France and Sweden get a vote on EU membership. It is a media beat up, Scotland may of voted to stay in the union but they also voted to stay a member of the UK and will look like bitches if a vote goes the same way again. Let me know how that unified Ireland goes. The North and the republic will no doubt sing and dance happily ever after on their mutual love of being rorted by the EU instead of London.
 
Frankly, if the economic response to Brexit is as dramatic across Europe as everyone was claiming, the EU members would be more interested in keeping to economic bits, which actually do benefit all the members as a whole, as compared to the political bits, which seem to become less popular every year.

My money is on Merkel getting her way, particularly when the French and Italians are dealing with their own dissident parties.

the SPD is clearly in favor of a quick dissolution. France and Italy are extremely important more so than the other countries just mentioned.

Steinmeier already made a joint statement with 5 other foreign ministers (Benelux+Italy+France) that said Brexit should happen fast
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Given that only works out to about 67% percent turnout across all brackets, as opposed to the 72% declared overall turnout, I'd have to say it's just based on polling data.

You forgot to adjust for demographics. There are a LOT of people in the top age bracket, and the weighted average (just going by eye at the demographic charts) comes out very close to 72%.

It's a poll, but it looks like a good one.
 

avaya

Member
they will get to know that freedom of movement is not off the table.
do you think USA will keep its financial hub in, say canada? not a chance no matter how much the canadian government bends over backwards. And who says that the tax haven status will be removed. the only way for London to survive is probably being an unregulated tax haven.

That does literally mean the uk is incapable of actually negotiating any settlement because it's such an easy gun for the eu to pull as France and Germany (Paris and Frankfurt) stand to gain from pulling it

Yeah the UK negotiating position is piss poor. Anyone thinking otherwise is living in fantasy.
 

Hasney

Member
Too right. You can't cause this level of damage and chaos and expect to get away clean. The UK will suffer, regardless of what happens at this point. That much is certain.


His fate is intertwined with that of David Cameron. It's over for him.

I'm more interested to know where Theresa May is, since she's kept a low profile during the whole thing. Personally I suspect she's hiding in the shadows, quietly watching and waiting, biding her time. Once Boris and Gove commit seppuku, she'll play her hand and gun for the leadership.

Honestly wouldn't be shocked if Boris and Give get behind May and then they can start being bullish about winning the leave vote knowing that someone else is scooping up their shit for them and will get blamed for the issues the UK has by the end of the term.
 

Tak3n

Banned
Too right. You can't cause this level of damage and chaos and expect to get away clean. The UK will suffer, regardless of what happens at this point. That much is certain.


His fate is intertwined with that of David Cameron. It's over for him.

I'm more interested to know where Theresa May is, since she's kept a low profile during the whole thing. Personally I suspect she's hiding in the shadows, quietly watching and waiting, biding her time. Once Boris and Gove commit seppuku, she'll play her hand and gun for the leadership.

You are clearly astute I was listening to a commentator say just this...she did local campaigning but keep well away from the toxic campaigns knowing there would be a chance after the fall out
 

John Dunbar

correct about everything
Let's how quick Scotland shuts the fuck up when France and Sweden get a vote on EU membership. It is a media beat up, Scotland may of voted to stay in the union but they also voted to stay a member of the UK and will look like bitches if a vote goes the same way again. Let me know how that unified Ireland goes. The North and the republic will no doubt sing and dance happily ever after on their mutual love of being rorted by the EU instead of London.

any reason to think those countries will be silly enough to vote on EU membership, especially after the clusterfuck we're witnessing?
 

nOoblet16

Member
You are clearly astute I was listening to a commentator say just this...she did local campaigning but keep well away from the toxic campaigns knowing there would be a chance after the fall out

Yep this is exactly what she is doing.
But I hate her with all my guts because she is the one person in the entire government who has made my life difficult.
 

Pandy

Member
And yet people, even here in this thread, are still shifting the goalposts and making excuses for why they didn't vote.

They didn't vote. They have absolutely no right to complain.
They don't have a right to complain about the result, they certainly have a right to complain about the calibre of the politicians and political debate that was presented to them.
 
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