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Trump Leads By Only 6 in Texas
- Thread starter giga
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The Lamonster
Member
A lot of people in PoliGAF were expecting 6 points.
Insane.
Insane.
gutter_trash
Banned
Texas will be difficult to flip, the concentration of Conservatism even transcends into minority groups.
Texas has the highest support for Republicans among minorities when compared to the national average
Texas has the highest support for Republicans among minorities when compared to the national average
Pop-O-Matic
Banned
Texas after this election:
Orbis Tabula
Member
The fact that she's leading among younger voters is incredible. 2020? 2024? Who knows.
Byakuya769
Member
Time to put some serious $$$ in TX. GOTV pushes might be enough to shock the nation.
Lovely Salsa
Banned
Thats a pretty big chunk of hispanic support..why? Any texan here? Why would they vote Trump?
Why would anyone
Why would anyone
Arizona and Georgia will go before Texas, I bet.
Orbis Tabula
Member
So, per this poll, Trump's lead in Texas is smaller than Hillary's lead in Virginia. Keep that in mind when you see websites listing places like VA as if they're still swing states.
The Lamonster
Member
We can all do our parts by sharing local voting registration links on social media.
statham
Member
old peeps, still wanting old racist times.
this is actually good news, in a weird way. Texas will be blue soon.
Because Fuck you, got mine or alternatively they believe they are one of the good ones. Source I'm a Texan and Mexican.
doctorblurg
Banned
It'd be great to feel mildly less ashamed of my state for once.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Texan Republicans have historically been very good at Hispanic outreach. The current governor actually won Hispanic men by a point or two, and George W Bush won something like 40% of Hispanics nationally as president. That's apparently enough that some percentage are willing to forgive them even for Trump. Those numbers are still a significant fall off in Texas Hispanic support for the GOP.
With an age gap like that, yeah. Driving up under-45 turnout by even just one or two points would have a big impact.
Grizzlyjin
Supersonic, idiotic, disconnecting, not respecting, who would really ever wanna go and top that
Texas going blue by 2020 or 2024 would send Republicans into panic mode, right? Who am I kidding. They learned literally nothing from their "autopsy report" on the 2012 election.
They've got some huge hurdle ahead. I think they're capable of putting up sensible choices, but their base that votes in the primary is drawn to the extreme. So your sensible folks will either get pushed out or forced to the fringe. By the general election, the Dems already got all the ammo they need to sink their battleship.
And there is 0.00001% chance the GOP pumps the brakes on their rhetoric with Hillary Clinton in the White House. They're going to go H.A.M. and give that fringe of theirs more fuel for the fire.
They've got some huge hurdle ahead. I think they're capable of putting up sensible choices, but their base that votes in the primary is drawn to the extreme. So your sensible folks will either get pushed out or forced to the fringe. By the general election, the Dems already got all the ammo they need to sink their battleship.
And there is 0.00001% chance the GOP pumps the brakes on their rhetoric with Hillary Clinton in the White House. They're going to go H.A.M. and give that fringe of theirs more fuel for the fire.
Texan here, I don't take this as Texas being blue, or even purple, so much as how unfathomable Trump is to suburban voters. You have solid blue hubs in all the major Texas cities (Houston, Austin, Dallas, S.A. and El Paso) as well as long the border. The rest of the state is deep red, but the population there isn't growing as fast as the cities. It's the suburban areas that are swing in Texas, and they tend to be filled with affluent white and Asian people who can skew Republican. However, these are also affluent people who are into family planning, may have a gay child, and work in the city/suburbs with hispanics, Asians, and African Americans, and just can't swallow Trump's brand of racism.
Now if Texas actually flipped this election, there's a chance. But if you put up a decent non Trump Republican in 2020, it'll go back to being pretty solid red.
What I am hoping is that some of these red/purple suburban districts in Texas start going blue due to depressed republican turn out/increased minority participation.
newshinycd
Member
You forgot the exclamation mark, so I fixed it. :>
whyamihere
Banned
2016 is going to do for AZ, GA, SC, and TX what 2008 did for VA and NC -- hyper start tends that were already there. I ultimately think she'll maaaaaybe only win GA, but this is fascinating. The south is back and with no blue dogs in sight.
Spiritreaver
Member
But what about all the people who would never admit they support Trump! The silent voters are going to sway this! Just you wait and see!
*eyeroll*
*eyeroll*
I vastly underestimated how much old Texans want out of the Union apparently.
The One and Done
Member
There is no way in hell Texas goes to Hilary.
perfectchaos007
Member
Not surprising. As of late, oddsmakers have had Clinton winning Texas a higher probability than Trump winning the general
statham
Member
This is kinda like us in Florida, but we somehow are a few years ahead. Everyone I know family included is pro trump.
Spider from Mars
tap that thorax
The One and Done;213827358 said:
It's not about Hillary taking Texas, it's about Texas becoming less of a solid red state in the future. Romney won Texas by about 16 points, if Trump only takes it by single digits, that's huge.
shiftplusone
Member
yep.
I have mexican friends, family, neighbors, etc who are in the "we came over legally why can't they" camp
My parents are moving, (mexican) neighbor asked him if they could buy the house so no "fucking mexicans" move in
They're a stupid god damn group of people and they're a large group
Best part of this poll.
Orbis Tabula
Member
He's winning those who support secession 72-20. So there is a group of old people out there who think Texas should leave the Union and, presumably, Clinton should be President of the Formerly United States.
Other data PPP has shared on Twitter:
Trump wins whites 69-25.
Clinton wins non-whites 73-21.
64% of Texans want Trump to release his tax returns.
Even among Trump supporters, 43-41 are in favor of him releasing his returns.
Trump voters agree, 82-12 that he needs to participate in the debates as scheduled.
71% of Trump supporters believe that, if Trump loses, it eill be because the election was rigged.
40% think ACORN will steal the election for her (ACORN no longer exists)
In a race of Trump v. Obama, it's 48-46
26% of Texans want to secede, 59% don't, 21% aren't sure.
If Hillary wins, Trump supporters want to secede by a 61-29 margin
Black Texans 97-3 for Clinton
Hispanic Texans 68-27 for Clinton
White Texans 69-25 for Trump
Ziltoidia 9
Member
Hey, my vote might count this year!
ajfoucault
Member
The mysteries of life, my friend. As a Hpsanic myself, I don't get it either.
Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
Told you all the dream is not dead
I think people are still mis-reading this if they want Texas to flip blue. Trump does not play well here particularly among Texas conservatives.
Texas has a strong libertarian streak to it's conservatism, which Trump is not playing well towards. Trade deals like NAFTA have been nothing but good for the Texas economy, so his hammering trade is going to hurt him here.
Texas also does not have the obsession with a border wall that most states too. Texas has generally had a more positive relationship with Mexico than most states, and Dubya helped that a lot. There are enough hispanics in Texas (San Antonio is majority hispanic, white people are less than 50% of the Austin population that pure raw hatred of hispanic people stealing jerbs doesn't really exist.
The major cities are increasingly liberal. Austin is obviously super extra liberal (78704 holla) . But San Antonio, Dallas and Houston are turning into liberal hotbeds of their own. The Texas suburbs are where Republicans murder dems. While affulent suburbs of other cities are competitive, they are pure unadulterated republican hot beds in Texas. Suburban Texas conservatives see themselves as more socially conservative Rockefeller republicans though. Small government, low regulation and just a slight distaste for minority groups. The Trump platform is basically "fuck small government, but extra fuck minorities". Texas conservatives are primarily interested in the government fucking itself and doing very little. And while racism is a massive problem here, the state isn't full of disenfranchised white voters who have few prospects for replacing income lost decades ago that is blamed on globalization or minorities undercutting them.
Also, the Texas Democratic party is a fucking joke and is in no position to help the national party let alone statewide elected officials. Even when they manage to recruit a decent candidate they get stomped.
This number is an outlier. As much as I want Texas to turn blue, I think people need to realize that it is a conservative state, even with minority voters, probably as a result of the Texas Republican party generally being more favorable to the hispanic population vs. the national party.
Texas has a strong libertarian streak to it's conservatism, which Trump is not playing well towards. Trade deals like NAFTA have been nothing but good for the Texas economy, so his hammering trade is going to hurt him here.
Texas also does not have the obsession with a border wall that most states too. Texas has generally had a more positive relationship with Mexico than most states, and Dubya helped that a lot. There are enough hispanics in Texas (San Antonio is majority hispanic, white people are less than 50% of the Austin population that pure raw hatred of hispanic people stealing jerbs doesn't really exist.
The major cities are increasingly liberal. Austin is obviously super extra liberal (78704 holla) . But San Antonio, Dallas and Houston are turning into liberal hotbeds of their own. The Texas suburbs are where Republicans murder dems. While affulent suburbs of other cities are competitive, they are pure unadulterated republican hot beds in Texas. Suburban Texas conservatives see themselves as more socially conservative Rockefeller republicans though. Small government, low regulation and just a slight distaste for minority groups. The Trump platform is basically "fuck small government, but extra fuck minorities". Texas conservatives are primarily interested in the government fucking itself and doing very little. And while racism is a massive problem here, the state isn't full of disenfranchised white voters who have few prospects for replacing income lost decades ago that is blamed on globalization or minorities undercutting them.
Also, the Texas Democratic party is a fucking joke and is in no position to help the national party let alone statewide elected officials. Even when they manage to recruit a decent candidate they get stomped.
This number is an outlier. As much as I want Texas to turn blue, I think people need to realize that it is a conservative state, even with minority voters, probably as a result of the Texas Republican party generally being more favorable to the hispanic population vs. the national party.
Yup, it's insane how quickly "We're taking a hard look at what happened and what we need to do to turn the GOP into a big tent organization again" faded away and we went back to "Fuck you if you're a woman, a gender/sex minority, non-white, poor (but not all you temporarily embarrassed millionaires, o'course, hahaha), and hey, let's throw disabled on the list, as well."
Oh, but the party's been hijacked, we're not seeing the true conservatives who totally appeal to everybody, etc etc. Those people don't exist. The entire basis of the Republican party from the Southern Strategy on has been "keep whites angry and line your coffers with gold while nobody's looking." We still have TONS of work to do with local/state governments, but nationally? The jig is up, motherfucker. It's time to pay what you owe.
Random Painted HIghway
Member
The conservative radio here in Houston is in desperation mode, if this ends up even being close here in tx, they are going to jump. I'm surprised the Johnson number isn't a bit higher, I know a number of republicans here who are opting that way. Let's put it this way, I know elected officials who off the record are not voting for trump here.
sssstententen
Member
I wish my young peers would actually vote.
Literally the worst thing about youth.
I swear if they came out with a voting app, those numbers would skyrocket.
Add in social features like instagram/facebook/snapchat/twitter integration and the political lanscape would probably be turned upside down.
Literally the worst thing about youth.
I swear if they came out with a voting app, those numbers would skyrocket.
Add in social features like instagram/facebook/snapchat/twitter integration and the political lanscape would probably be turned upside down.
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