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Trump Leads By Only 6 in Texas

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S

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Random Painted HIghway said:
The conservative radio here in Houston is in desperation mode, if this ends up even being close here in tx, they are going to jump. I'm surprised the Johnson number isn't a bit higher, I know a number of republicans here who are opting that way. Let's put it this way, I know elected officials who off the record are not voting for trump here.
Click to expand...

Most GOPers I know are either silently or publicly Johnson supporters.

I think if Trump continues to be an embarrassment, guilt by association could net him in the 12-15% range, which would absolutely put Hillary winning in play.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
StoOgE said:
I think people are still mis-reading this if they want Texas to flip blue. Trump does not play well here particularly among Texas conservatives.

Texas has a strong libertarian streak to it's conservatism, which Trump is not playing well towards. Trade deals like NAFTA have been nothing but good for the Texas economy, so his hammering trade is going to hurt him here.

Texas also does not have the obsession with a border wall that most states too. Texas has generally had a more positive relationship with Mexico than most states, and Dubya helped that a lot. There are enough hispanics in Texas (San Antonio is majority hispanic, white people are less than 50% of the Austin population that pure raw hatred of hispanic people stealing jerbs doesn't really exist.

The major cities are increasingly liberal. Austin is obviously super extra liberal (78704 holla) . But San Antonio, Dallas and Houston are turning into liberal hotbeds of their own. The Texas suburbs are where Republicans murder dems. While affulent suburbs of other cities are competitive, they are pure unadulterated republican hot beds in Texas. Suburban Texas conservatives see themselves as more socially conservative Rockefeller republicans though. Small government, low regulation and just a slight distaste for minority groups. The Trump platform is basically "fuck small government, but extra fuck minorities". Texas conservatives are primarily interested in the government fucking itself and doing very little. And while racism is a massive problem here, the state isn't full of disenfranchised white voters who have few prospects for replacing income lost decades ago that is blamed on globalization or minorities undercutting them.

Also, the Texas Democratic party is a fucking joke and is in no position to help the national party let alone statewide elected officials. Even when they manage to recruit a decent candidate they get stomped.

This number is an outlier. As much as I want Texas to turn blue, I think people need to realize that it is a conservative state, even with minority voters, probably as a result of the Texas Republican party generally being more favorable to the hispanic population vs. the national party.
Click to expand...

The data supporting a possible eventual flip to blue doesn't really clash with what you've said though. Texas suburbs are probably older which would jive with the PPP generational divide.

I don't see it flipping blue now, but the polling data seems positive for future races.
 
K

Kthulhu

Member
I don't see Hillary winning this time around. Texas is gerrymandered to hell.

Edit: apparently I need to retake civics.
 
J

JohnsonUT

Member
StoOgE said:
I think people are still mis-reading this if they want Texas to flip blue. Trump does not play well here particularly among Texas conservatives.

Texas has a strong libertarian streak to it's conservatism, which Trump is not playing well towards. Trade deals like NAFTA have been nothing but good for the Texas economy, so his hammering trade is going to hurt him here.

Texas also does not have the obsession with a border wall that most states too. Texas has generally had a more positive relationship with Mexico than most states, and Dubya helped that a lot. There are enough hispanics in Texas (San Antonio is majority hispanic, white people are less than 50% of the Austin population that pure raw hatred of hispanic people stealing jerbs doesn't really exist.

The major cities are increasingly liberal. Austin is obviously super extra liberal (78704 holla) . But San Antonio, Dallas and Houston are turning into liberal hotbeds of their own. The Texas suburbs are where Republicans murder dems. While affulent suburbs of other cities are competitive, they are pure unadulterated republican hot beds in Texas. Suburban Texas conservatives see themselves as more socially conservative Rockefeller republicans though. Small government, low regulation and just a slight distaste for minority groups. The Trump platform is basically "fuck small government, but extra fuck minorities". Texas conservatives are primarily interested in the government fucking itself and doing very little. And while racism is a massive problem here, the state isn't full of disenfranchised white voters who have few prospects for replacing income lost decades ago that is blamed on globalization or minorities undercutting them.

Also, the Texas Democratic party is a fucking joke and is in no position to help the national party let alone statewide elected officials. Even when they manage to recruit a decent candidate they get stomped.

This number is an outlier. As much as I want Texas to turn blue, I think people need to realize that it is a conservative state, even with minority voters, probably as a result of the Texas Republican party generally being more favorable to the hispanic population vs. the national party.
Click to expand...


Really good summary.
 
L

levious

That throwing stick stunt of yours has boomeranged on us.
Zeke said:
Because Fuck you, got mine or alternatively they believe they are one of the good ones. Source I'm a Texan and Mexican.
Click to expand...


Some hispanic conservatives in Texas are interesting. If you're familiar with south texas, there used to be a guy who lives just east of san diego, tx (brother of a family friend), flew four flags in his front yard. US, Texas, Confederate Battle Flag, and a Redskins flag.

He was as odd as you could imagine.

Also consider that many texas hispanics have little empathy towards immigrants as they are descended from people who have been there before Texas even existed.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Fenderputty said:
The data supporting a possible eventual flip to blue doesn't really clash with what you've said though. Texas suburbs are probably older which would jive with the PPP generational divide.

I don't see it flipping blue now, but the polling data seems positive for future races.
Click to expand...

It's also difficult to project this forward when future Republican candidates probably won't be losing by 8 or 9 nationally and bleeding college educated voters like Trump. That eventual flip is not happening soon outside of a Democratic wave election.
 
J

JohnsonUT

Member
Fenderputty said:
The data supporting a possible eventual flip to blue doesn't really clash with what you've said though. Texas suburbs are probably older which would jive with the PPP generational divide.

I don't see it flipping blue now, but the polling data seems positive for future races.
Click to expand...

I am not convinced Texas will ever go blue in a meaningful way. If Republicans keep nominating Trumps, it is possible Texas will vote blue, but so will most other states. Texas will not be deciding elections. On the other hand, if Republicans actually do make meaningful changes to their party, keeping Texas in the fold will be a top priority.
 
Z

ZeroMaverick

Member
Lovely Salsa said:
Thats a pretty big chunk of hispanic support..why? Any texan here? Why would they vote Trump?

Why would anyone
Click to expand...

Because even if you're latino, you may have been brought up in a community that is predominantly Republican, especially if your family has been here for a while and you live somewhere rural.
 
A

AYF 001

Member
Zeke said:
Because Fuck you, got mine or alternatively they believe they are one of the good ones. Source I'm a Texan and Mexican.
Click to expand...

shiftplusone said:
yep.

I have mexican friends, family, neighbors, etc who are in the "we came over legally why can't they" camp

My parents are moving, (mexican) neighbor asked him if they could buy the house so no "fucking mexicans" move in



They're a stupid god damn group of people and they're a large group
Click to expand...

To me, if they're actually going to vote for Trump, it seems like a good attempt to question their decision would be to tell them that the other people who are voting for him don't really care about "legal" or "illegal". They just want anyone they don't know who isn't exactly like them out of the country, and while the people in their neighborhood might be decent enough to them, there's plenty more who will instantly form negative opinions of them if they knew their ethnicity.
 
I

Iksenpets

Banned
levious said:
Some hispanic conservatives in Texas are interesting. If you're familiar with south texas, there used to be a guy who lives just east of san diego, tx (brother of a family friend), flew four flags in his front yard. US, Texas, Confederate Battle Flag, and a Redskins flag.

He was as odd as you could imagine.

Also consider that many texas hispanics have little empathy towards immigrants as they are descended from people who have been there before Texas even existed.
Click to expand...

Yeah, a lot of Texas Hispanics have been around for centuries and are pretty completely folded into white society at this point. Politically and culturally, they're no different from their white counterparts.
 
H

Hyperactivity

Banned
Lovely Salsa said:
Thats a pretty big chunk of hispanic support..why? Any texan here? Why would they vote Trump?

Why would anyone
Click to expand...

Not too involved in local to really know, but I sorta get the feeling that local right wing realizes, at least parts of it, that not making efforts to attract Latino communities is a bad idea.

I'd probably agree with what others have said: I doubt this is a sign of Texas turning blue thanks to Trump as much as Trump being that bad. In 2020, a non-Trump Republican will keep Texas out of bounds, and the Latino vote iirc doesn't skew left nearly as much. Meanwhile, democrats here are often a mess.

I could see a post-2020 election and fallout where Republicans finally get the idea to appeal to minorities more before the growth of Texas' minorities turn it blue
 
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
Jeels said:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ppppolls/status/765573091191848964

"Which doesn't exist"

:(
Click to expand...

I enjoyed this response:

X66liXA.jpg
 
W

wildfire

Banned
Grizzlyjin said:
Texas going blue by 2020 or 2024 would send Republicans into panic mode, right? Who am I kidding. They learned literally nothing from their "autopsy report" on the 2012 election.

They've got some huge hurdle ahead. I think they're capable of putting up sensible choices, but their base that votes in the primary is drawn to the extreme. So your sensible folks will either get pushed out or forced to the fringe. By the general election, the Dems already got all the ammo they need to sink their battleship.

And there is 0.00001% chance the GOP pumps the brakes on their rhetoric with Hillary Clinton in the White House. They're going to go H.A.M. and give that fringe of theirs more fuel for the fire.
Click to expand...

Older people are living longer.

Gop will hold till the 2040s
 
E

Empty

Member
nice that trump is cratering all over the map but its just a vanity project trying to flip texas. better using resources elsewhere.

that said i'm surprised johnson isn't higher. he should work more in texas.
 
Auto_aim1

Auto_aim1

MeisaMcCaffrey
Grizzlyjin said:
Texas going blue by 2020 or 2024 would send Republicans into panic mode, right? Who am I kidding. They learned literally nothing from their "autopsy report" on the 2012 election.
Click to expand...
GWB said he hopes he isn't the last Republican president. If Texas goes blue by 2024, he will be. Assuming they lose in 2020 of course. I personally think it will stay red for a long ass time.

Also, you can't say they learned nothing from 2012, they just didn't expect Trump to destroy them. Jeb or Marco as the nominee would have improved their hispanic vote share. It remains to be seen how much damage Trump does to the GOP in this election and whether they can repair it.
 
M

my name is ed

Banned
I don't expect Texas to go blue for like 24 years tbh

However it will be important for Dems to use Trump to seize the republican Hispanic vote for more house seats or for local elections.
 
Raven117

Raven117

Member
StoOgE said:
I think people are still mis-reading this if they want Texas to flip blue. Trump does not play well here particularly among Texas conservatives.

Texas has a strong libertarian streak to it's conservatism, which Trump is not playing well towards. Trade deals like NAFTA have been nothing but good for the Texas economy, so his hammering trade is going to hurt him here.

Texas also does not have the obsession with a border wall that most states too. Texas has generally had a more positive relationship with Mexico than most states, and Dubya helped that a lot. There are enough hispanics in Texas (San Antonio is majority hispanic, white people are less than 50% of the Austin population that pure raw hatred of hispanic people stealing jerbs doesn't really exist.

The major cities are increasingly liberal. Austin is obviously super extra liberal (78704 holla) . But San Antonio, Dallas and Houston are turning into liberal hotbeds of their own. The Texas suburbs are where Republicans murder dems. While affulent suburbs of other cities are competitive, they are pure unadulterated republican hot beds in Texas. Suburban Texas conservatives see themselves as more socially conservative Rockefeller republicans though. Small government, low regulation and just a slight distaste for minority groups. The Trump platform is basically "fuck small government, but extra fuck minorities". Texas conservatives are primarily interested in the government fucking itself and doing very little. And while racism is a massive problem here, the state isn't full of disenfranchised white voters who have few prospects for replacing income lost decades ago that is blamed on globalization or minorities undercutting them.

Also, the Texas Democratic party is a fucking joke and is in no position to help the national party let alone statewide elected officials. Even when they manage to recruit a decent candidate they get stomped.

This number is an outlier. As much as I want Texas to turn blue, I think people need to realize that it is a conservative state, even with minority voters, probably as a result of the Texas Republican party generally being more favorable to the hispanic population vs. the national party.
Click to expand...

Yup. As a Texan, I approve this message. It is pretty much right on in describing the macro currents of Texas politics.

As for Texas turning blue in recent years...hard to say. A lot depends on a lot of other considerations (described above). However, when/if it does...the Republicans as a national party as we know it will never win another general election. It will be over.

However, if you are a Californian, please stay in your own state...Thank you. :D
 
B

Baraka in the White House

2-Terms of Kombat
Random Painted HIghway said:
The conservative radio here in Houston is in desperation mode, if this ends up even being close here in tx, they are going to jump. I'm surprised the Johnson number isn't a bit higher, I know a number of republicans here who are opting that way. Let's put it this way, I know elected officials who off the record are not voting for trump here.
Click to expand...

I don't see Hannity and Patrick ever NOT towing the party line. They've been doing all kinds of mental gymnastics to make Trump seem like a viable candidate.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
I might believe there was even so much as a sub 1% chance of Texas flipping if it wasn't for the fact that they have the strictest voter ID laws in the country.

We'd need the Latino to population in Texas to have record turnout to even have a chance, but there is no way it's happening given the current laws.
 
A

AnotherDayAnotherDollar

Banned
sersteven said:
I wish my young peers would actually vote.

Literally the worst thing about youth.

I swear if they came out with a voting app, those numbers would skyrocket.

Add in social features like instagram/facebook/snapchat/twitter integration and the political lanscape would probably be turned upside down.
Click to expand...

For sure. And there's no reason for us not to be able to vote on our phones or online. None.
 
Z

zethren

Banned
Baraka in the White House said:
I don't see Hannity and Patrick ever NOT towing the party line. They've been doing all kinds of mental gymnastics to make Trump seem like a viable candidate.
Click to expand...

And in the process, Hannity constantly rattles off the same BS talking points that has nothing to do with Trump. And also constantly paints himself and the GOP as victims here. All the while doing and saying anything he possibly can to make Trump appear valid.

Hannity is a disgusting person.
 
C

CitizenVectron

Member
Kthulhu said:
I don't see Hillary winning this time around. Texas is gerrymandered to hell.
Click to expand...

Gerrymandering has no effect on electoral college votes in Presidential elections. Gerrymandering only has an effect when it comes to seats/districts/ridings for houses of Congress/Legislatures.
 
D

dskillzhtown

keep your strippers out of my American football
Raven117 said:
Yup. As a Texan, I approve this message. It is pretty much right on in describing the macro currents of Texas politics.

As for Texas turning blue in recent years...hard to say. A lot depends on a lot of other considerations (described above). However, when/if it does...the Republicans as a national party as we know it will never win another general election. It will be over.

However, if you are a Californian, please stay in your own state...Thank you. :D
Click to expand...

It all depends on if the Dem party can get their crap together here. They always seem to be in a state of disarray and not enough cooperation to field a viable candidate for state-wide positions.
 
P

PeskyToaster

Member
Is Gary Johnson acting as a spoiler for Republicans dissatisfied with Trump's candidacy. Trump isn't really the kind of Republican Texas wants so this shift could be the result of certain Republicans moving towards Johnson this election rather than a shift to blue. I would expect it to be more solidly red in 2020 if the Republicans pick a real candidate.
 
Z

ZealousD

Makes world leading predictions like "The sun will rise tomorrow"
Grizzlyjin said:
Texas going blue by 2020 or 2024 would send Republicans into panic mode, right? Who am I kidding. They learned literally nothing from their "autopsy report" on the 2012 election.
Click to expand...

Kasich, Jeb, and Rubio knew what needed to be done. The thing about the autopsy report is that it meant diddly to voters. With candidates like Cruz and Trump who are seeking power for their own personal gain, they hold no loyalty to the party in the long term. So they feel free to pander and work against the report. They knew how to get votes in their party's core and they exploited it, GE strategy be damned.
 
C

Coolluck

Member
StoOgE said:
Texas also does not have the obsession with a border wall that most states too. Texas has generally had a more positive relationship with Mexico
Click to expand...

Then why did those assholes throw all that money at sending people to the border to do nothing? Who is that posturing for if not the state voters who want that?
 
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