lol Dude. Not nearly enough to be competitive to win Presidential contests or be a viable national party. On a whole, the majority of 45-and-younger voters (everyone that isn't a dumb white male) are not GOP voters.
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Trump Leads By Only 6 in Texas
- Thread starter giga
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lol Dude. Not nearly enough to be competitive to win Presidential contests or be a viable national party. On a whole, the majority of 45-and-younger voters (everyone that isn't a dumb white male) are not GOP voters.
She could, but it's doubtful to do much, considering that's one of her weakest demographics.
Also, what Stooge said + the "a normal Republican candidate would flip back to more solidly red" comment.
I look forward to the day when Texas gets more sane state politics, let alone actually goes blue in a federal election, but this is the same wishful thinking that's been going on for nearly a decade now.
A very vocal minority. Trump's supporters are not enough to win, as we're seeing. He needs to branch out to more demographics than just old, white, angry people.
DietRob
i've been begging for over 5 years.
Yea I agree not nearly enough to win as evidenced by 2008 and 2012 but they are still out there and in gerrymandered districts there will always be enough of them to elect their batshit crazy representatives to Congress. Just pointing out that the 'old people die' just gives way to a new group of old people.
LucidMomentum
Member
People gotta vote though. Voting matters way more than polls.
But I get what you're saying.
Even that's not gonna last forever, thankfully. Hopefully things are more fair after districts are redrawn in 2021.
DietRob
i've been begging for over 5 years.
That is my hope as well. Trump might be the biggest blessing the Democratic party has ever received. If we can manage to flip the house and senate it would be a glorious thing. The Senate flip should be do-able this cycle. Not too optimistic about the house though.
That's the GOP's problem.
A majority of their base are white, racist, jingoists. But that's not the voting public at large. And a candidate like Trump is even losing 20% of the party that isn't the base.
They can't win with their base, and they can't win without it.
The great betrayal in civil rights is finally seeing it's end game. The party is imploding because of its racist deal with the devil to keep it afloat after the fall of the Capitalists of the 20-50s. Integrating racist southern Democrats that felt betrayed by civil rights worked for a good long time, but its almost at its end.
VendettaRed07
Member
What spending money in Texas would do considering the slim margin in the polling is make the GOP sweat, force their hand to spend there themselves and have less resources to defend Florida, Georgia, SC and NC. Would be worth it.
No, it's because their Hispanic population is more conservative compared to other states.
Plus, Gerrymandering can't really affect our Senate and gubernatorial elections that quite solidly elect awful Republicans (Abbott, Perry before him, Cruz, Cornyn).
We did get hit with the Gerrymandering bat early and publicly for our US Representative districts though. Stuff like districts that are 200 miles east-west and 20 miles north-south to connect areas from different cities.
DeviantBoi
Member
You change this by investing in education and tuition-free colleges.
Obama lost the "white, college-educated" voters, but Clinton appears to be changing that.
Texas voter under 35 voting Hillary. Houston specifically. I saw my first trump sticker the other day. It was accompanied by another sticker that said "democrats/liberals love the first amendment until you disagree with them." and a few other cliche stickers. Almost took a picture but I just shook my head.
Zoe
Member
That's surprising it was your first--I've actually seen quite a few around Austin.
Minnesota has been creeping more red state under the radar, compared to decades past where it was the most solid blue state in the nation. Still not gonna change anytime soon though. Democrats are also worried that the rust belt could become more republican as a whole - all of their states voted for republican governors the past few years. Again though, not really likely.
Texas is not going to go blue for HIllary.
That said, the demographics have to be terrifying for Republicans at this point.
The state could flip inside a decade, which means the Republican Party is looking at a very terrifying ticking clock.
The party leadership has to make some big decisions, and they have to make them very soon, gerrymandering or no. I'm starting to think that there's too much political and cultural inertia behind their current trajectory, though, and the Republican Party is straight up doomed.
Religion.
That said, the demographics have to be terrifying for Republicans at this point.
The state could flip inside a decade, which means the Republican Party is looking at a very terrifying ticking clock.
The party leadership has to make some big decisions, and they have to make them very soon, gerrymandering or no. I'm starting to think that there's too much political and cultural inertia behind their current trajectory, though, and the Republican Party is straight up doomed.
Religion.
Hillary was weak with young people in the primaries. Those are over. Now we are in the general and she is CRUSHING Trump amongst young people.
What other choice do Republicans have? Becoming a more open and inclusive party is necessary but seemingly impossible right now without alienating their wacky ass base.
The GOP's best hope is probably waiting until their racist base dies out in the next few decades and reforming from the ground up as a proper and inclusive conservative party. And I think they'll actually make some gains whenever that happens as there are definitely a lot of conservative minority voters out there that are only turned away because of the overt racism that exists within the GOP.
That may not be 30-40 years down the line though. There will be huge pains, struggles and national marginalization and they may not even survive through that.
The GOP's best hope is probably waiting until their racist base dies out in the next few decades and reforming from the ground up as a proper and inclusive conservative party. And I think they'll actually make some gains whenever that happens as there are definitely a lot of conservative minority voters out there that are only turned away because of the overt racism that exists within the GOP.
That may not be 30-40 years down the line though. There will be huge pains, struggles and national marginalization and they may not even survive through that.
Admiral Woofington
Member
Didn't they have a meeting recently where they were trying to think of idea to keep the party afloat and essentially just doubled down on the bigotry?
It's like it's FAIRLY obvious what they need to change their stance on in social issues, but all of the old farts in the party are refusing to budge on their shit values.
The party won't change until they lose multiple elections by a landslide on social issues alone. Or they bring in a moderate republican to appeal to the folks who are economically conservative and socially tolerant.
Maybe, but we're talking a very certain type of old person when we say they're dying off. We're talking old white conservatives who came of age during Nixon and worship Ronald Reagan as Conservative god. In the future, you're getting old white people who came of age during Dubya's disaster and who likely can barely even remember Reagan if they even do at all. There's no "back in my day" glossing of history for them. So it's not just that they're old and white. It also matters when you grew up, where you grew up, and how.
Additionally, you're going to have a ton of old minority voters there too. The white voting % share has been dropping, particularly among those under 45.
Here are thee states were trump is curently leading by a double digit margin
Olkahoma,Alabama, Louisana, Arkansas(I think), Tennesssee,West Virgina,Wyoming, Idaho, Kentucky, Nebraska(statewide) and Nebraska(3rd congrsssional district)
Basileus777
Member
That's a projection based on national polls, few of those states have been polled at all since the primaries have ended.
Pretty much. Also, one of the states in that list were trump may be leading by less than 10 points right now is probably Kentucky based off some of the polls we seen from Kansas and some of the limited polling we have seen from the states surrounding it like IN.Maybe someone should poll Kentucky next.
shadowsdarknes
Member
If Johnson surges and Republicans continue to abandon Trump as his impending loss looks ever more convincing, Texas could have a remote chance of turning blue. My how glorious that would be.
I'm curious if there was a chance of the state going blue if the state would vote to have it's electoral votes divided up proportionally. At least that way they'd only be giving up half the state's votes.
Basileus777
Member
That'd guarantee that they wouldn't keep all of its EVs.
Raven117
Member
Oh, I think the Dem party is merely allocating resources where they think they can win.
Once they think Texas is truly in play, then I would expect this to change considerably.
It doesn't have to be though, a lot of Latinos are conservative but don't vote for the GOP because of their racist anti immigrant dogma.
Would also guarantee that the democrats wouldn't keep them all either.
Basileus777
Member
The Democrats would need them less.
By that point for sure.
orthodoxy1095
Banned
The bolded is a really interesting point that I hadn't thought of.
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
Sorry no chance this is going to be the case come election day, not a chance it will be anywhere near that close.
PartlyCloudlike
Member
Is it that hard for republicans to adapt their platform?
Just remove the racist, sexist, and homophobic elements and keep the rest. Right there you've increased your party base, more than you've lost. Your redneck base will inbreed themselves into extinction over the next 50 years. And the fiscal conservative bullshit you spout but never abide by, the religious stuff, the dislike for the poor, you can still keep all of that.
Just remove the racist, sexist, and homophobic elements and keep the rest. Right there you've increased your party base, more than you've lost. Your redneck base will inbreed themselves into extinction over the next 50 years. And the fiscal conservative bullshit you spout but never abide by, the religious stuff, the dislike for the poor, you can still keep all of that.
Basileus777
Member
They can't do it with the snap of their fingers, their most devoted base will strongly oppose it and there are plenty of elected Republicans who are willingly to pander to them. Trump won the nomination propelled by these people and the 2nd place finisher was Ted Cruz, another extremist. What you suggested requires a party civil war.
You have to give it time till they have no other choice because the rest of the racists have died out. They'll change when absolutely necessary and it'll be some huge revolutionary thought that lots of non-white people aren't so scary and liberal after all.
I guess that'll be a sort of progress...
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
If you ask people who they prefer between the two, yes.
But if you're asking more young people to come out to vote for Clinton to offset the older crowd's more reliable voting bloc, don't be surprised if they don't. I just don't think HRC spending more money in the state is going to really drive the results some are suggesting.
Any candidate who "adapts" as you say will lose the primary to an opponent that keeps the racism and sexism. While the party elites can try to steer the party in certain directions (through platforms and media), the people still have a powerful voice via who they nominate. Right now the people nominating want racism and sexism in their candidates.
I kinda figured after this election they will try to tone down those elements out of pure pragmatism. Trump is almost certainly going to get dunked on in spectacular fashion making it pretty obvious you can't actually win that way any more.
saltinekracka
Member
Gonna need a source, I don't think this stat is accurate.
AlimNassor
Banned
Texas cities are usually liberal. Even the suburbs can be a toss up. Problem is the small towns are overwhelmingly white and conservative.
BreezyLimbo
Banned
For comparison, in 2012 Romney won texas by 15%(Or points if you will)
Zoe
Member
That's non-Hispanic whites. If you include white Hispanics, the number goes way up.
br0ken_shad0w
Member
People were thinking Texas was changing right until Greg Abott and Dan Patrick won in a landslide.
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