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Trump to GOP: "Go nuclear" on filibuster if SCOTUS nom is deadlocked

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GuyKazama

Member
If they get rid of the entire fillibuster it would neuter a Senators power in Washington. Doing it for a SCOTUS nominee basically lets the cat out of the bag, and once it is out its over, you really can't put the genie back in the bottle.

The cat is out of the bag. This wouldn't even be an option on the table if Reid hadn't set a precedent.
 

marrec

Banned
Great, the GOP filibuster Merrick Garland for 10 months and the moment they get the White House they threaten to get rid of it?

Well then. If that's how they want to play things, the Democrat party need to win back the Senate bigly (sorry) in 2018 and block everything.

The GOP didn't filibuster Marrick Garland.

The GOP lead Judiciary Committee never even held an initial hearing to start the confirmation process.

Very very different.
 

Jobbs

Banned
I'm still confused.

Why can't this scenario happen?

Monday - Senate Republicans nuke the filibuster

Tuesday - Senate Republicans confirm Trump's SCOTUS pick.

Wednesday - Senate Republicans vote filibuster back into place.

Because it makes no sense. Either something is constitutional or it isn't. Going nuclear is declaring that the filibuster is not constitutional.

Because Dems will return the favor once they can.

Also this. It's kind of a cold war thing. :p
 
I'm still confused.

Why can't this scenario happen?

Monday - Senate Republicans nuke the filibuster

Tuesday - Senate Republicans confirm Trump's SCOTUS pick.

Wednesday - Senate Republicans vote filibuster back into place.

Because Dems will return the favor once they can.
 

Ourobolus

Banned
Sure, but people are acting like once the cats out of the bag it can't be put back. They can just put the filibuster back to protect themselves from an extreme bill from the Republican side.

It can definitely be put back. However, Republicans hold a majority in Congress - why would they ever want the Democrats to filibuster?
 

marrec

Banned
They keep breaking laws and changing everything! Wtf can we do, the Republicans are this evil, we have 4 years!!!

This is not a law that they would break. The esoteric rules of the senate have always been part of the political process, and that includes threats to change the filibuster rules.
 

TheOMan

Tagged as I see fit
Change the senate rules to remove the option of Filibuster on SCOTUS appointee.

Basically, push through Gorsuch.

This would set a precedent going forward though, neither side wants it to come to this, so it's used as a threat constantly.

I say the Dems call the bluff.

Agreed, but I'm pretty sure Trump is too short-sighted to see it this way.

Then, the reason for the Senate even existing comes into question, doesn't it?
 
Again, this is about precedent.

You can think of the filibuster as an agreed upon cease fire between two parties. If one party breaks that cease fire, the other one won't just shrug and not shoot back.

(Poor analogy I suppose)

Democrats would be the ones to shrug. Trust me. Republicans know the drill. Sure Democrats could grow a spine but if History shows us anything, they'll go right back to "finding common ground".
 
Yeah this whole gentleman's agreement thing isn't flying with me. You have to have two gentlemen to have an agreement and one side is going balls to the wall to the right. I dont think they are worried about tomorrow, much less 4 years from now.
 

Iksenpets

Banned
The GOP didn't filibuster Marrick Garland.

The GOP lead Judiciary Committee never even held an initial hearing to start the confirmation process.

Very very different.

Different, but still a violation of norms that Dems are completely justified in retaliating against by launching an unconditional filibuster of Trump's nominee.
 

studyguy

Member
Problem is the next nominee might shift the direction of the court, so if they nuke now the next one will only require 50.

Consider that only 1 of the 3 people on the bench around 80 now are republican appointed who might be retiring soon. Those are real shit odds to pin a hope on.

It'll likely be Ginsburg since she's old as hell so it will either get nuked now with Trump whipping the GOP from behind or it'll definitely get nuked next time.

If it's a bluff and the GOP balk at nuking the filibuster, we might block and get someone slightly more moderate. If not we get someone rammed down our throats now. Either way the next appointment will definitely get shoved down our throats so there's no winning move here, just mitigation of as much damage as possible.
 

Beartruck

Member
You better.

C3i12NoUEAApQMm.jpg
Thats rich. Durbin is the assistant minority leader and hes going against schumer (his direct superior)'s wishes. Democrats can't stop stepping on their own dicks.
 

pompidu

Member
The GOP didn't filibuster Marrick Garland.

The GOP lead Judiciary Committee never even held an initial hearing to start the confirmation process.

Very very different.

It's not very very different, same situation, different groups of people.
 

marrec

Banned
Yeah this whole gentleman's agreement thing isn't flying with me. You have to have two gentlemen to have an agreement and one side is going balls to the wall to the right. I dont think they are worried about tomorrow, much less 4 years from now.

The Senate has always been the "gentlemanly" house of congress and McConnell is not about to go changing that. Trust me this weird dance will end up in the Dems giving the GOP 8 votes to get the 60 vote margin after a few months of lobbed threats back and forth and the gentleman's agreement will remain in place.

Democrats would be the ones to shrug. Trust me. Republicans know the drill. Sure Democrats could grow a spine but if History shows us anything, they'll go right back to "finding common ground".

The Democrats already fired the nuclear option on lower court nominees.

It's not very very different, same situation, different groups of people.

No, it's literally different. The effect may have been the same but the tool used was very different.
 

Jobbs

Banned
Reading Dick Durbin's statement made my skin crawl.

dick said:
I will meet with Judge Gorsuch and support a hearing and a vote for him--both of which were denied to an eminently qualified nominee presented by President Obama.

But why?

You're a fucking loser, Dick
 

SURGEdude

Member
The Durbin statement was solid until the Main St. and Wallstreet thing. That's so cliché it hurt.

But they should do all they can to remind people that this was not supposed to be this mancunt's appointment.
 

Shoeless

Member
So how long is it going to take for the Democrats to simply be abolished, and for there to no longer be any political parties or independents, just Trump and his court?
 
They have zero reason to do that final step.

You have to realize that once the filibuster is gone, the GOP will become VERY scared of bringing up any bills because the Democrats can fuck the bills over by bringing up amendments to the bills that are politically bad to vote against, but have "poison pills" in them on the main bill.

Republicans did something similar every time that the Democrats used Reconciliation to get around the filibuster.
 

marrec

Banned
So how long is it going to take for the Democrats to simply be abolished, and for there to no longer be any political parties or independents, just Trump and his court?

Jesus Christ people this is not something to get worked up about.
 

Ourobolus

Banned
You have to realize that once the filibuster is gone, the GOP will become VERY scared of bringing up any bills because the Democrats can fuck the bills over by bringing up amendments to the bills that are politically bad to vote against, but have "poison pills" in them on the main bill.

Republicans did something similar every time that the Democrats used Reconciliation to get around the filibuster.

Right, but they can do that anyway, I thought.
 
Durbin is from illinois, a hard blue state. He has 0 reason to play ball, unless he wants to get primaried. Think I might call up his office and let him know that.
Durbin, primaried...in Illinois? Not happening. This is Durbin saying fuck you to Schumer, nothing more. And ultimately it still might lead to a filibuster, let's see this play out.

Durbin would have been a far better minority leader to have.
 

Stop It

Perfectly able to grasp the inherent value of the fishing game.
The GOP didn't filibuster Marrick Garland.

The GOP lead Judiciary Committee never even held an initial hearing to start the confirmation process.

Very very different.
Very good point, they didn't even let it get that far.

God I've read enough about this to not make such a simple error too, apologies. The GOP won't ever play by the rules but expect them to be followed when in opposition to a Democrat President. Now is not the time for the Democrat party to be "above" this.

Force them to kill the filibuster. Then get out there and stop the Orange Bastard.
 

marrec

Banned
The denial of a president even having hearings for his SC appointment for a damn near a year means anybody afterwards should get a whole lot of anger.

I agree that there should be retaliation for the Garland fiasco, but that will come in time.
 

Jobbs

Banned
Very good point, they didn't even let it get that far.

God I've read enough about this to not make such a simple error too, apologies. The GOP won't ever play by the rules but expect them to be followed when in opposition to a Democrat President. Now is not the time for the Democrat party to be "above" this.

Force them to kill the filibuster. Then get out there and stop the Orange Bastard.

As far as I'm concerned -- they need to do this.

A political system where both sides are assholes and petulant and mean and block and delay everything they possibly can for no other reason than that the other side wants to do it is a bad system and one no one should be happy about.

..But a worse system is one where only one side does this. A system where only one side gets a turn while in power. A system where only one side gets to make appointments and pass things.

Save us, Marrec
 

marrec

Banned
As far as I'm concerned -- they need to do this.

A political system where both sides are assholes and petulant and mean and block and delay everything they possibly can for no other reason than that the other side wants to do it is a bad system and one no one should be happy about.

..But a worse system is one where only one side does this. A system where only one side gets a turn while in power. A system where only one side gets to make appointments and pass things.

Save us, Marrec

The only winning move is not to play...

*fires the nuclear missiles*
 
Great, the GOP filibuster Merrick Garland for 10 months and the moment they get the White House they threaten to get rid of it?

Well then. If that's how they want to play things, the Democrat party need to win back the Senate bigly (sorry) in 2018 and block everything.

The Democrats most likely will lose seats in the Senate in 2018.
 

pompidu

Member
The Senate has always been the "gentlemanly" house of congress and McConnell is not about to go changing that. Trust me this weird dance will end up in the Dems giving the GOP 8 votes to get the 60 vote margin after a few months of lobbed threats back and forth and the gentleman's agreement will remain in place.



The Democrats already fired the nuclear option on lower court nominees.



No, it's literally different. The effect may have been the same but the tool used was very different.

So it's the same, like I said. I don't think the different mechanisms are really all that different when the main goal is obstruction.
 
Right, but they can do that anyway, I thought.

With the filibuster in place, the GOP can just use Democrat obstruction to not have to pass any bill that has a poison pill in it.

Basically, removing the Filibuster makes passing ANY bill similar to the Reconciliation process.
 

Beartruck

Member
Durbin, primaried...in Illinois? Not happening. This is Durbin saying fuck you to Schumer, nothing more. And ultimately it still might lead to a filibuster, let's see this play out.

Durbin would have been a far better minority leader to have.
Why not? Hes sure as shit not losing to a republican candidate in the general election.
 

marrec

Banned
So it's the same, like I said. I don't think the different mechanisms are really all that different when the main goal is obstruction.

We need to understand and be clear about these kinds of things because misunderstandings can bring discussions and debates into the weeds and because we need to understand how to use these things to our advantage when the time is right.

He was not filibustered. To say so is wrong. That is, as the kids say, "fake news".
 

SURGEdude

Member
I agree that there should be retaliation for the Garland fiasco, but that will come in time.

People's memories are short, and tying it to a relevant topic helps focus the narrative. I can't imagine a better use of the little power the left has to make a statement.

It's just a primer even when it fails, because by almost any death actuary analysis he's gonna get 1 or 2 more even if he only gets 4 years.
 
The cat is out of the bag. This wouldn't even be an option on the table if Reid hadn't set a precedent.

He wouldn't have done that had he not exhausted every other option prior and the Republicans not set the precedent of pure obstructionism on every appointment and piece of legislation during the 8 year Obama era due purely to racist sentiment and cynicism.
 

Jobbs

Banned
The Democrats most likely will lose seats in the Senate in 2018.

With the end of so many political norms and such an unpopular and inflammatory figure as Trump in office I truly think at this point it's impossible to predict what will happen in 2018. Nothing would surprise me.

In 2006, the dems won a wave election over a war that affected, directly, almost no one. Look at what Trump has done after only like 11 days.

If they repeal Obama care and millions of people lose their insurance? All bets are off as to what the ramifications of this would be. Political actions don't take place in a vacuum, and this is especially true of deeply provocative political actions and ones that directly hurt people in demonstrable ways that they understand (like losing their coverage).
 

guek

Banned
I advocate for just confirming Gorsuch and trying to take back the Senate and House over the next 4 years while hoping no more SCOTUS appointments are made in that time. Gorsuch is going to be confirmed no matter what, I'd vote for picking a better battle in the future. There's nothing gained from forcing the GOP to nuke the filibuster right now.
 
Agreed, but I'm pretty sure Trump is too short-sighted to see it this way.

Then, the reason for the Senate even existing comes into question, doesn't it?

It's important to acknowledge here that Trump has no real, direct power in this situation. Even if he is 'demanding' it. I mean, he's obviously trying to influence this with what's being said, but the decision is up the Congress and the GOP at this point. They have to make this move on their own.
 

Ourobolus

Banned
With the filibuster in place, the GOP can just use Democrat obstruction to not have to pass any bill that has a poison pill in it.

Basically, removing the Filibuster makes passing ANY bill similar to the Reconciliation process.
But wouldn't this only apply to SCOTUS nominees? Or would it apply to all bills?
 

Jobbs

Banned
I advocate for just confirming Gorsuch and trying to take back the Senate and House over the next 4 years while hoping no more SCOTUS appointments are made in that time. Gorsuch is going to be confirmed no matter what, I'd vote for picking a better battle in the future. There's nothing gained from forcing the GOP to nuke the filibuster right now.

I guess you can make an argument for "choose your battles", but all I've seen over Obama's term is that obstructing tooth and nail every single thing has only benefitted the GOP and has cost them nothing. I'm not sure why we should suddenly believe that being obstructionist has consequences.

Being smarter, bigger, and better doesn't work in our current political system. Our politics are a big childish stupid fucking shit show. Just a big dumb food fight. Being scholarly in a food fight doesn't help. You say something smart and get mashed potatoes in the face. It doesn't matter.

..And it only hurts, because if dems roll over it'll demoralize their base -- Which is out for blood
 
The Dems have shown themselves very unwilling to return any favours owed by the GOP.

It's true, but doing what they did yesterday gives me hope. Even with all the obstructionist bullshit of Obama's terms, I don't think Dems ever had the screams of rage on their asses from their constituents like they are now. I don't know if it'll matter, in the end, to stop the fascism taking over the country, but I am more optimistic about the Dems actually getting down and dirty, even if it's far, far too late.
 
I guess you can make an argument for "choose your battles", but all I've seen over Obama's term is that obstructing tooth and nail every single thing has only benefitted the GOP and has cost them nothing. I'm not sure why we should suddenly believe that being obstructionist has consequences.

There's a general thought process that Democrats are held to a double-standard than Republicians. And this, somewhat true (though I think it's become exaggerated in reality), but right now there's calls from their base, loudly, to obstruct, obstruct, obstruct. So, yeah, this is what needs to happen, and while the right-wing will condemn, I think it's clear that they will condemn them no matter what.
 
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