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Trump will win says prof. who's been mostly correct on presidential races since 1984

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DOWN

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/amph...-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/

As far as I understand he made the prediction in May but it hasn't changed

Interview at the link:
Nobody knows for certain who will win on Nov. 8 — but one man is pretty sure: Professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election since 1984.

When we sat down in May, he explained how he comes to a decision. Lichtman's prediction isn't based on horse-race polls, shifting demographics or his own political opinions. Rather, he uses a system of true/false statements he calls the "Keys to the White House" to determine his predicted winner.

And this year, he says, Donald Trump is the favorite to win.

The keys, which are explained in depth in Lichtman’s book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016” are:

Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University, sat down with The Fix this week to reveal who he thinks will win in November and why 2016 was the most difficult election to predict yet. Our conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.
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EDIT: Out of desperation I googled and last month he didn't seem confident, claiming this is the hardest election he's had to call

http://newsroom.ucla.edu/stories/ou...difficult-to-predict-say-two-election-experts

And he added:
“What has Trump stirred up in this country? The worst and most dangerous element — the neo-Nazis, the white supremacists, the Ku Klux Klan,” Lichtman said. “David Duke has said ‘Trump has made this my time.’ All of those groups are encouraged by the Trump campaign," the historian said. “It does not strain credulity to assume how some of those people might interpret what Trump said.

“It is so dangerous and so despicable that, in my view, it ought to be disqualifying for the presidency,” Lichtman added. “We have not seen anything remotely like this in our history.”
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V

Verendus

Banned
I don't think he will.

And so I am fortunately right, and have broken this man's streak of predictions. I also don't think it's impressive to have correctly predicted the presidents since 1984.
 
S

sappyday

Member
I remember there being a school that gotten every presidential candidate right and they said Bernie would win this year
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
The issue with models like this is that there are far too few inputs for them to be really accurate. He'd need like 100 times the number of inputs he has right now and even then a change in any dynamic could throw the whole thing off. There's a reason Wang and the Nates use polling instead of something like this.

Seriously, he's predicted like 8 elections. It's like flipping a coin and going on a hotstreak.
 
K

Kalnos

Banned
IIRC I read that he counts Al Gore's popular vote victory as a 'win'

EDIT: yeah article says correct on 'popular vote' since 1984.
 
U

UncleSporky

Member
People should probably read the article too.

So very, very narrowly, the keys point to a Trump victory. But I would say, more to the point, they point to a generic Republican victory, because I believe that given the unprecedented nature of the Trump candidacy and Trump himself, he could defy all odds and lose even though the verdict of history is in his favor. So this would also suggest, you know, the possibility this election could go either way. Nobody should be complacent, no matter who you're for, you gotta get out and vote.
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L

liquidtmd

Banned
I think if Trump wins he's going to pull some Brewster's Millions shit and pull out saying he never wanted to run and he had to the fulfill some weird contract.

Twist: Cameras were filming him behind the scenes every step of the way and it starts on Fox the following week. It's called 'The Hopeful', 'From Jack to a King' or 'Lol jokes on them I was only pretending'. Format gets sold around the world and joke candidates start to get fielded in Leadership contests around the world.
 
G

grandjedi6

Master of the Google Search
We get these articles every election year. With millions of people predicting, there is always going to be someone who got the last X elections right. But it doesn't mean anything.

Also this guy's system just uses a simple set of True/False questions to predict whether the incumbent party will win the popular vote again. It doesn't take in account the actual candidates at all. And spoiler alert: a normal Republican candidate would probably be doing a lot better than old Trumpy
 
K

Kard8p3

Member
NotLikeThis
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Mr Reasonable

Mr Reasonable

Completely Unreasonable
That's a pretty good set of tools he's got there, it'll be interesting / massively depressing to see if they delivered the right answer.
 
W

weekev

Banned
The second part of the quote is spot on though. What he has stirred up in America is some scary shit. As much as I am for freedom of speech and expression I think he should be disqualified and arrested for some of the horrifying rhetoric he has come up with eg hinting to his supporters that they should assassinate Hillary if she wins, will use nukes on his enemies, all Mexicans are rapists and murderers etc etc
 
T

Torokil

Member
IIRC even he said that he didn't believe this because his model shows that in a generic republican (Rubio, Kasich etc) vs democrat matchup - the republican would win. Trump being a special brand of fuck up kind of made him doubt this.
 
G

grandjedi6

Master of the Google Search
Also here's the 13 keys via Wikipedia:


The Keys are statements that favor the re-election of the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win.

Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
brandonh83 said:
Well, let's hope not.
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I mean the polls don't suggest Trump is winning, even if he isn't losing by a particularly large margin.

The polls show movement towards Trump but I don't believe it shows him with gains beyond his highest points and I suspect he will get annhilated in the debates since he has literally no grasp of policy.

Trump's problem at the debates will be twofold - he doesn't know anything and there's an extremely low chance Hilldawg will perform poorly.
 
J

Joeys_Rattata

Neo Member
I felt like this felt familiar, and then I realized that this same exact thing popped up in 2012 but with someone different

http://www.colorado.edu/today/2012/...nts-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says

http://kdvr.com/2012/08/22/cu-study-predicts-romney-win/

DENVER - A University of Colorado analysis of election factors that's accurately predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1980 revealed Wednesday that the 2012 winner will be Republican Mitt Romney.
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Can't believe Trump is going to beat President Romney y'all.
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
I am sorry, but barring a Hillary scandal of legal means, there is no fucking way he is correct this time.

I will bet any amount of money possible with anyone who is willing to take me up on it.
 
V

Verendus

Banned
AlteredBeast said:
I am sorry, but barring a Hillary scandal of legal means, there is no fucking way he is correct this time.

I will bet any amount of money possible with anyone who is willing to take me up on it.
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So would you bet $100,000 if someone took you up on it?

Because if not, you just lied.
 
N

NoblesseOblige

Banned
There's only been 8 elections since 1984. Statistically many people have gotten them all right. I've had them all right since I started to pay attention, but I haven't lived long enough to compete with rando professor.
 
U

uncelestial

Member
WOW he predicted the outcome of the 1984 election?! But that one was so close!

349px-ElectoralCollege1984.svg.png


Only election 2000 was at all hard to predict., and oops, he got that one wrong.

This is basically nothing.
 
H

Hazmat

Member
uncelestial said:
WOW he predicted the outcome of the 1984 election?! But that one was so close!

349px-ElectoralCollege1984.svg.png


Only election 2000 was at all hard to predict., and oops, he got that one wrong.

This is basically nothing.
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I have to agree. It's 8 elections and while some of them were close some of them really weren't. I'm not saying he's an idiot or anything, but that record doesn't impress me.
 
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