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Trump will win says prof. who's been mostly correct on presidential races since 1984

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G

Gordon Shumway

Banned
“What has Trump stirred up in this country? The worst and most dangerous element — the neo-Nazis, the white supremacists, the Ku Klux Klan,” Lichtman said. “David Duke has said ‘Trump has made this my time.’ All of those groups are encouraged by the Trump campaign," the historian said. “It does not strain credulity to assume how some of those people might interpret what Trump said.

“It is so dangerous and so despicable that, in my view, it ought to be disqualifying for the presidency,” Lichtman added. “We have not seen anything remotely like this in our history.”
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Is this man a GAFfer?! 😏
 
Leatherface

Leatherface

Member
If Trump wins I will seriously be depressed because that would be such a huge step backwards for this country, especially with all the racial tension happening right now. Ugh. :(
 
H

Heartfyre

Member
Leatherface said:
If Trump wins I will seriously be depressed because that would be such a huge step backwards for this country, especially with all the racial tension happening right now. Ugh. :(
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As bad as Brexit is to the UK and the EU, Trump winning the presidency would be terrible to the world as a whole. I hope the US won't be as complacent as the UK was.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
My understanding of the spirit of key #1 is that republicans have to do better in the second midterm than the first. But you take away the gerrymandering that occurred between 2010 and 2014, Democrats would be doing better in congress right now compared to 2011.

We all know of the split between midterm and presidential elections, but when comparing like to like, the trend is slightly better for democrats.
 
A

A Link to the Past

Banned
Honestly, I find it really funny that "correct since 1984 (except on Gore)" is a qualifier.

1. Oh, you predicted that popular president Ronald Reagan would win? Amazing

2. VP of a popular president wins? Shocking

3. Bill Clinton wins as the incumbent while also being popular? Astonishing

4. Wartime president beats our Kerry? Fascinating

5. Obama dominates two terms after severe Republican disappointment has taken hold? How wild

Most of his predictions since 1984 have been relatively predictable
 
G

gabbo

Member
Phased said:
He isn't wrong there. Statistically, Republicans should have won this election. You generally don't get more than 2 sequential Presidents of the same party, so just looking at it from that angle it looks highly likely that a Republican will win the White House this year.

The problem is the Republican party is such a shitshow and is hated so overwhelmingly by minorities (which control more and more of the vote) that this may not be relevant any more. This may actually be the last General Election Republicans have even a slim chance of winning if you pay attention to the way demographics are going. The white vote doesn't carry them as far as it used to, and without massive outreach, if they lose this year I don't see them even being viable in 2020.
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That depends on whether they learn from this like they should have 2008 or continue as they have since McCain/Palin to drive as hard right as humanly possible - though I mean they're running a racist fascist, so it's hard to see them going further right without actually running a platform of outright removing the popular vote as a means of electing officials
 
S

SpaceWolf

Banned
Rtbeoh said:
Very excited. I love Donald Trump he's earned it.
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uZkMqE.gif
 
T

ThoughtsOfSpeaking

Banned
Reading the article he admits trump himself will probably throw his prediction model off.

I don't think anyone is disputing at this point that Clinton would have a very tough time winning against a competent republican candidate considering how much she is struggling against trump. That's the real take away from this article.
 
styl3s

styl3s

Member
This is the one time i would be ok with election rigging if meant Trump didn't win.

Also there's a first time for everything and hopefully this is the one time he's wrong.
 
C

Chezzymann

Member
xsive said:
Well, the odds of randomly guessing each of the last eight US elections is 1 / 256 or ~0.4%. With those odds, it seems likely the guy is using a better-than-random system of calling winners.
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But there's a lot of people who are predicting elections so statistically someone's bound to be on a hot streak
 
P

Pulka

Member
styl3s said:
This is the one time i would be ok with election rigging if meant Trump didn't win.

Also there's a first time for everything and hopefully this is the one time he's wrong.
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It's okay to do bad things if I agree with the ones doing it!
 
B

besada

Banned
teruterubozu said:
What was your prediction back in '84?
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Mine was Ronald Reagan, like everyone else's. What now? Dude carried 49 states. Everyone on the planet, including Mondale, knew Reagan was going to win.

You literally picked the worst election imaginable to make your silly age related argument with.
 
K

kiri

Member
Just as a curious (and mildly morbid) aside...I would be interested to see recorded suicide rates pre and post-Trump nomination, should he win.
 
R

Rabbi_Vole

Banned
So who prodded this guy into running again? Have we forgotten this story? It would be the biggest facepalm of the millineum if Hillary is denied the presidency because her husband convinced this ass clown to run.
 
R

rjinaz

Member
Rtbeoh said:
Very excited. I love Donald Trump he's earned it.

Edit: Don't wanna be banned actually sorry, I love Hillary. #ImWithHer! Yay.
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uh huh.

If you want to love Trump, nobody is going to stop you. You're in a forum though and people are going to want to know why "he has earned it"..

Your edit is just embarrassing.
 
M

Mammoth Jones

Member
I worried if Trump doesn't win. All those racists he stirred up aren't just gonna go quietly back to Stormfront.

It's gonna be an epic meltdown either way.
 
-sdp

-sdp

Member
What people don't discuss but should be worrying is that being seen as a trump supporter has such a negative stigma that I think many of the polls are incorrect and there are many "closet" Trump voters that won't reveal themselves in fear of being labeled a racist.
 
T

teruterubozu

Member
besada said:
Mine was Ronald Reagan, like everyone else's. What now? Dude carried 49 states. Everyone on the planet, including Mondale, knew Reagan was going to win.

You literally picked the worst election imaginable to make your silly age related argument with.
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I was 14 in 1984, I couldn't predict shit, much less cared. How old were you?
 
H

Htown

STOP SHITTING ON MY MOTHER'S HEADSTONE
We've never before seen a candidate who's spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others. He's the first candidate in our history to be a serial fabricator, making up things as he goes along. Even when he tells the truth, such as, "Barack Obama really was born in the U.S.," he adds two lines, that Hillary Clinton started the birther movement, and that he finished it, even though when Barack Obama put out his birth certificate, he didn't believe it. We've never had a candidate before who not just once, but twice in a thinly disguised way, has incited violence against an opponent. We've never had a candidate before who's invited a hostile foreign power to meddle in American elections. We've never had a candidate before who's threatened to start a war by blowing ships out of the water in the Persian Gulf if they come too close to us. We've never had a candidate before who has embraced as a role model a murderous, hostile foreign dictator. Given all of these exceptions that Donald Trump represents, he may well shatter patterns of history that have held for more than 150 years, lose this election even if the historical circumstances favor it.
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So what he's saying is that, going by historical trends, Donald Trump should win. However, since he is such a strange candidate, it may not work out that way.

I also think that a problem with this way of looking at the presidential race is that it takes a national view of the election. The secret of the presidency is that it's not actually a national election; it's a bunch of simultaneous state elections for a national office. That's an important distinction.

-sdp said:
What people don't discuss but should be worrying is that being seen as a trump supporter has such a negative stigma that I think many of the polls are incorrect and there are many "closet" Trump voters that won't reveal themselves in fear of being labeled a racist.
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This is actually my biggest fear - that there are a substantial number of people that want to vote for Trump, but don't want to be seen publicly as a Trump supporter.
 
R

rjinaz

Member
-sdp said:
What people don't discuss but should be worrying is that being seen as a trump supporter has such a negative stigma that I think many of the polls are incorrect and there are many "closet" Trump voters that won't reveal themselves in fear of being labeled a racist.
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Maybe. But the thing is, most don't think Trump is racist nor does supporting him make you a racist. Most seem to be proud of supporting Trump. I mean I have no doubt there are closet Trump supporters But could there not be closet Clinton supporters as well. She is highly unfavorable as well.
 
S

Slayven

Member
-sdp said:
What people don't discuss but should be worrying is that being seen as a trump supporter has such a negative stigma that I think many of the polls are incorrect and there are many "closet" Trump voters that won't reveal themselves in fear of being labeled a racist.
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Bullshit,
 
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
About half the people in your local bar have correctly predicted the president since 1984. One of them may even be nicknamed, "Professor."

Slayven said:
Bullshit,
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Actually I think that's sort of true, however the sort of person smart enough to hide support of a racist is also likely the sort of person who doesn't want to see his 401k tank in November and will just hold his nose and vote Hillary, perhaps even inverting the pretense for his republican buddies.
 
C

commedieu

Banned
Slayven said:
Bullshit,
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I was listening to kcrw. They were talking about people that have already made up their mind about trump, but don't want to be seen as supporting him. So they lie on polls... I wish it was bullshit.. but cowardice knows no lows.

I feel like I know people like this.
 
B

besada

Banned
teruterubozu said:
I was 14 in 1984, I couldn't predict shit, much less cared. How old were you?
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I was fourteen and apparently paid a lot more attention to the world than you did.

None of which has anything to do with this guy, how accurate he is or isn't, or your attempt to portray the people in the thread as too young to be commenting on his success.
 
S

Simon Belmont

Banned
Memento Mori said:
It happened in the 2015 UK election. The British Conservative Party unexpectedly won a majority when the polls were saying it was going to be a hung parliament. The stigma of being a Trump voter is surely even worse.
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The US isn't the UK. During the last Canadian Election we kept hearing about shy Tories and they never materialized.
 
C

commedieu

Banned
Pamplemousse said:
My thoughts, too.

He's not going to win. The electoral college makes it VERY difficult for Trump. He'd need a miracle to get to 270.
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He's getting it. Non-stop violence, terrorism, a broken war.. this is all pinned on Hillary because of her vagina. I don't think she's going to get record minority support. It's a perfect storm for him right now.


"I can fix it!" Is working for people. It's so bizarre.
 
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