LookAtMeGo
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Lets not get crazy here.I have more than $100k in equity on my home.
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Trump will win says prof. who's been mostly correct on presidential races since 1984
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Then you stare as the newly homeless family looks at you with tear filled eyes while wondering what kind of monster would do that to them. Little Jimmy who was looking forward to getting an iPad for Christmas, and Little Jenny who was getting ready to go to college.Throwing a property deed in the air would feel pretty damn good, I imagine. 5 bed/4bath 3800 sq ft. Nice home theater. Easy money, right?
It's just too much.
andythinkpad
Member
Fine I will pick up more Clinton stock on the cheap.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
wouldn't be my family. Lesson learned? Don't gamble against the obvious.
Such cruel and heartless words.
That's the kind of thing I'd expect Donald Trump to say!
andythinkpad
Member
What's the odd you have with your friend, straight up?
It's not really. Lichtman is a legitimate scholar and fairly well-regarded in the world of political science. But, as mentioned upthread, these sorts of models are built around a relatively small number of data points, so one should take them with a grain of salt.
My biggest issue with Lichtman's model is that the correlation between the number of keys "turned" and strength of victory is not that strong; usually more keys turned means a greater margin and vice versa but there are too many exceptions for me to be comfortable with given how few elections there are for the model to predict. The model also does not take into account the electoral college; it called for Gore to win in 2000 and Lichtman gives himself credit for that because of Gore winning the popular vote.
LookAtMeGo
Member
the_batman
Banned
someone should persuade him to change his mind..
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Straight up. I considered him to be the sucker and he me, but there was never a doubt in my mind.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
going to set up a Predictit account, since I just realized that was still a thing. How much is Hillary stock right now and is there a limit to what I can buy? How does cashing out work?
You mean the election that Gore would have won if he got the recount he asked for in Florida?
That being said... It is pretty obvious that if it were Jeb, Rubio or Kasich in the general, Hillary Clinton would lose the election. Even though Clinton is going to win against Trump, I do worry that the electoral college and the popular vote are going to have Clinton and Trump be a lot closer than they should ever, ever be given the two candidates in question.
that's savage.
Chaos2Frozen
Member
If they were so good how come they lost their Primary?
They kept splitting the vote between themselves and then bringing themselves down to his level. That was the problem in the Republican primaries.
Primary voters sometimes have a different sense of what makes a "good" candidate than the general electorate. The GOP had to deal with this issue to a lesser degree in 2008 and 2012, with McCain and Romney having to move significantly further right to win the nomination, though it's happened to the Democrats as well (famously with McGovern and Mondale).
BetterWorldz
Member
God help us all.
andythinkpad
Member
If he bet on Trump with you straight up for 1000, he just need to bet another 600-650 on Clinton to guarantee no lose.
So that was why Kasich only won Ohio when most GOP primaries came after the other two were out and Trump,just kept winning?
They were bad candidates obviously propped up by the traditional power brokers of the GOP. This was so obvious even the GOP primary base could tell it.
Trump has benefited from false equivalence more than any candidate in history. If a more credible candidate was opposite Clinton issues might actually matter, and then they'd get destroyed because Clinton is substantially more intelligent than all of them.
UnemployedVillain
Member
No, it's not obvious
Yes... Compare the Democratic primaries to the Republican ones. The Democratic primaries had two candidates effectively... Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. And both were very different candidates from each other. Meanwhile the Republican primaries had like a shit ton of similar candidates with only Trump and Cruz standing out because they were the clear, obvious choice for particular factions of the Republican Party... Trump perfectly represented the Dixiecrats while Cruz perfectly represented the Religious Right. The fact that these two candidates each had a faction of the Republican Party fully behind them allowed them to be the top two choices with Trump and thus the Dixiecrats ultimately winning out.
Aarglefarg
Member
Even if it was 50/50 rather than having information on how it leans. And even if we count the Gore loss as a win:
Someone getting eight 50/50 predictions right, out of all the people making predictions, isn't worth much at all.
Someone getting eight 50/50 predictions right, out of all the people making predictions, isn't worth much at all.
travisbickle
Member
This quote though
Is what rational human beings across the country should be saying and thinking. The worst part of this election is not even trump itself, but the troves of republicans supporting him. Even Ted Cruz came crawling back in the fold to kiss his toes. It's a pathetic display uniformly of the Republican Party. No democrat can ever feign any respect for it. And I'm hoping that's true for the moderates too, creating an even bigger divide between the parties
The methods are on the whole, despicable. The days where McCain corrected a woman from calling Obama an Arab seem to be over, and now the party finds spin for whatever anyone has to say at their rallies or from trumps mouth itself. You almost need a parent like figure to step in here and shut the shit down since it's so ridiculous
Is what rational human beings across the country should be saying and thinking. The worst part of this election is not even trump itself, but the troves of republicans supporting him. Even Ted Cruz came crawling back in the fold to kiss his toes. It's a pathetic display uniformly of the Republican Party. No democrat can ever feign any respect for it. And I'm hoping that's true for the moderates too, creating an even bigger divide between the parties
The methods are on the whole, despicable. The days where McCain corrected a woman from calling Obama an Arab seem to be over, and now the party finds spin for whatever anyone has to say at their rallies or from trumps mouth itself. You almost need a parent like figure to step in here and shut the shit down since it's so ridiculous
That's my thought as well.
ryutaro's mama
Member
I think Kasich would have won.
EASTC0AST_GH05T
Member
Xbox Won and so will Trump.
Well, the odds of randomly guessing each of the last eight US elections is 1 / 256 or ~0.4%. With those odds, it seems likely the guy is using a better-than-random system of calling winners.
Palette Swap
Member
You know what would be awesome in this scenario? The times you would taste bile in your throat when being sanctimoniously told to "unite behind the leader" to "heal all the divisions of the country".
On top of all the perks such an insightful leader would bring, obviously.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
If every American who was old enough to vote in 1984 predicted all elections from 1984 onwards by flipping a coin, there would be ~720,000 who would currently be on an election-winning streak. ~360,000 of them would continue their streak after this election, too. This does not mean we should trust any of their coins.
He isn't wrong there. Statistically, Republicans should have won this election. You generally don't get more than 2 sequential Presidents of the same party, so just looking at it from that angle it looks highly likely that a Republican will win the White House this year.
The problem is the Republican party is such a shitshow and is hated so overwhelmingly by minorities (which control more and more of the vote) that this may not be relevant any more. This may actually be the last General Election Republicans have even a slim chance of winning if you pay attention to the way demographics are going. The white vote doesn't carry them as far as it used to, and without massive outreach, if they lose this year I don't see them even being viable in 2020.
Sure, great point. Absolutely agree.
IlGialloMondadori
Member
I think the real chance of Trump winning are the masses of people who wouldn't normally vote who feel Trump speaks to them. The racists, the hateful, the disenfranchised whites, the working class that feel Trump will give them a chance for a job and a better life. Basically the Brexit demographic .
Aarglefarg
Member
In this case, this professor wouldn't be among the 720,000 because of their incorrect 2000 prediction.
Super_Cobra
Member
I think he will win too. Unfortunately.
Too bad that he died. We need his guidance right now.Professors? Come on America, you can do better, Trump doesn't even like experts.
In Europe we decide questions like these in a much better way.
1984, 1996, 2004, and 2012 were all re-elections of incumbent presidents as well.
With the part about the popular vote, I'm guessing that he went with Al Gore in 2000.
So basically, he correctly predicted Clinton stealing Bush's second term, and Obama beating McCain. MAYBE Kerry vs George W as well. He got George W's first election wrong. Anyone could have predicted the rest.
teruterubozu
Member
Misleading title. The guy says IF this was a normal election with a regular traditional GOP candidate.
SlickShoesRUCrazy
Member
If trump wins, 40 years of regression it is.
Really will have to take into consideration leaving the US.
Really will have to take into consideration leaving the US.
That and he is predicting the popular vote, not the result of the elections.
Does anyone have a link to the thread where Trump first announced his candidacy? I bet that would be pretty interesting to read now.
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